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By Tyler Durden

Submitted by Federico Pieraccini via Strategic-Culture.org,

The preceding three parts of this series analyzed the mechanisms that drive great powers.

The most in-depth understanding of the issues concerned the determination of the objectives and logic that accompany the expansion of an empire.

Geopolitical theories, the concrete application of foreign-policy doctrines, and concrete actions that the United States employed to aspire to global dominance were examined.

Finally, the last bit of analysis focused particularly on how Iran, China and Russia have adopted over the years a variety of cultural, economic and military moves to repel the continual assault on their sovereignty by the West with specific attention was given to the American drive for global hegemony and how this has actually accelerated the end of the 'unipolar moment', impelling the emergence of a multipolar world order.

In this fourth and final analysis I will focus on a possible strategic shift in the approach to foreign policy from Washington. The most likely hypothesis suggests that Trump intends to attempt to prevent the ongoing integration between Russia, China and Iran.

The failed foreign-policy strategy of the neoconservatives and neoliberals has served to dramatically reduce Washington's role and influence in the world. Important alliances are being forged without seeking the assent of the United States, and the world model envisioned in the early 1990s – from Bush to Kagan and all the signatories of the PNAC founding statement of principles – is increasingly coming undone. Donald Trump’s victory represents, in all likelihood, the last decisive blow to a series of foreign-policy strategies that in the end undermined the much-prized leadership of the United States. The ceasefire in Syria, reached thanks to an agreement between Turkey and Russia, notably excluded the United States.

The military, media, financial and cultural assault successfully prosecuted over decades by Washington finally seems to have met its Waterloo at the hands of the axis represented by Iran, Russia and China. The recent media successes (RT, Press TV and many alternative media), political resistance (Assad is still president of Syria), diplomatic struggles (negotiations in Syria without Washington as an intermediary) and military planning (Liberation of Aleppo from terrorists) are a result of the efforts of Iran, Russia and China. Their success in all these fields of operations are having direct consequences and implications for the internal affairs of countries like the United Kingdom and the United States.

The relentless efforts by the majority of Western political representatives for a successful model of globalization has created a parasitic system of turbo capitalism that entails a complete loss of sovereignty by America’s allies. Brexit and Trump have served as an expression of ordinary people’s rejection of these economic and political regimes under which they live.

In Syria, Washington and its puppet allies have almost exited the scene without achieving their strategic goal of removing Assad from power. Within the American political system, the establishment, spanning from Clinton to Obama, was swept away for their economic and political failures. The mainstream media, …read more

Source: Trump’s Delusion: Halting Eurasian Integration And Saving ‘US World Order’

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Eight men now control as much wealth as the world’s poorest 3.6 billion people, according to a new report from Oxfam International. …read more

Source: 8 men are richer than 3.6 billion people combined

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By Tyler Durden

They once ruled the earth…

Source: Ben Garrison

…read more

Source: "Mainstream Mediasaurus"

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By Tyler Durden

Authored by Oaktree Capital's Howard Marks,

In August, I mentioned that I had chosen the title “Political Reality” for my memo in part because of my liking for oxymorons. I classed that title with other internally contradictory statements, such as “jumbo shrimp” and “common sense.” Now I’m going to discuss one more: “expert opinion.”

This memo was inspired by a thought that popped into my head when the outcome of the election settled in. You may point out that at the end of my November 14 memo “Go Figure!,” I said I wouldn’t write any more about politics. True, but I didn’t say I wouldn’t think about politics. Anyway, this memo isn’t about politics, it’s about opinions.

Last spring I attended a dinner where one of Hillary Clinton’s senior advisers was soliciting input, as she and her campaign were struggling to come up with an effective counter to Bernie Sanders’s populist message. Most of those present expressed frustration on the subject, until an experienced, connected Democrat assured everyone, “Don’t worry. She’ll win. The math is irresistible.” The Hillary supporters were relieved, and he turned out to be right: she won the nomination going away.

In late October, with the issue of Clinton’s private email server and the FBI’s new investigation further dogging her, that same seasoned Democrat was asked whether the election was in jeopardy. “Don’t worry,” he said. “She’ll win. The math is irresistible.” We all know the result.

The opinions of experts concerning the future are accorded great weight . . . but they’re still just opinions. Experts may be right more often than the rest of us, but they’re unlikely to be right all the time, or anything close to it. This year’s election season gave us plenty of opportunities to see expert opinion in action. I’ll start this memo by reflecting on them.

The Year Polls Stopped Working

Pollsters got off to a tough start last year with the June referendum concerning Britain’s membership in the European Union. Right up to the end, both pollsters and bookmakers considered U.K. citizens 70% likely to vote to remain a member. But, in the end, “Leave” won by a few percent.

The reaction was shock. Voters on both sides of the issue were unprepared for the outcome. Within a day or two, the leaders of Britain’s main political parties had stepped down. People began to seriously discuss what that outcome meant and how “Brexit” would be accomplished.

The explanations for the pollsters’ error centered around Britain’s lower level of experience with, and expertise in, polling. It couldn’t happen in the U.S. In fact, in the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections, Nate Silver, the proprietor of website FiveThirtyEight, correctly predicted the outcome in all 50 states once and in 49 the other time.

In 2016, FiveThirtyEight estimated the odds of Hillary Clinton winning as slightly better than 50/50 as of the end …read more

Source: Howard Marks: "So Much For The Experts"

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By Tyler Durden

While currency and fixed-income traders are having second thoughts about the extent of the Trump reflation trade just days before the inauguration of the 45th U.S. president as Bloomberg’s Vincent Cignarella writes, most readily observed in the recent 50% drop in 10Y real yields, which have slid from 0.74% in mid-December to just 0.38% in the past month, it is still far too early to call the time of death on the Trump rally.

Which brings us to the Icarus trade, laid out by Bank of America, which we pointed out last week. As a reminder, BofA’s tactical view is that after a Jan/Feb wobble, stocks & commodities will have one last 10% melt-up in H1. Call it the “Icarus trade”. The current melt up, which started back in Feb 2016, will be followed by a meltdown later in ’17 BofA’s Michael Harnett predicts.

This is how it will play out according to the BofA strategist. The current rally started in Feb 2016 with…

• bearish Positioning (BofAML Bull & Bear indicator = 0, cash = 5.6%, big >2SD underweights in Emerging Markets & energy)
• excessively bearish Profits (credit spread blowout, PMI’s crashing toward 45, global EPS negative)
• and Policy impotence (“Quantitative Failure”).

Thus the rally is likely to end with…

• bullish Positioning (BB indicator = 8, cash = 4%, unambiguous long positions in stocks, Japan & banks)
• excessively bullish Profit expectations (global PMI’s >55, US wage growth >3%)
• and Policy hawkishness (Fed jacks up short end of yield curve, ECB tapers).

Are we there yet? No, says BofA. Here’s why:

• Positioning is bullish but not dangerously euphoric (B&B indicator is 3.6, FMS cash @ 19-month lows of 4.8% but elevated versus 15-year history, global equities trade just 3% above 200-day moving average).
• Profits likely to be revised higher following strong Dec’16 ISM print (implies 10% US EPS growth – Chart 2); credit spreads well-behaved with US & European spreads at 18-month lows; however PMI’s getting closer to “peak” and US wages close to 8-year highs.
• Bond market yet to aggressively price-in hawkish monetary Policy: US financials conditions in “easy” territory according to our simple model; US yield curve has stopped steepening but yet to see a “bear flattening”; ECB “taper” remains one of the key catalyst for rates volatility, although for the time being it remains unlikely.

Sure, Hartnett concedes, you can get a wobble in coming weeks. Investors are partial to the “buy the election, sell the inauguration” argument. Fed anxiety could pick-up between the two winter FOMC meetings: Feb 1st & March 15th, especially given December surge in US wage growth. And Trump/Mexico/China headlines/tweets have the ability to rattle sentiment as the new President seeks to immediately boost his ratings via populist trade policies & legislation …from Occupy Wall Street to Occupy Detroit or Occupy Silicon Valley.

Still, Hartnett does not see it… yet.

Positioning, Policy & Profit arguments for a big Q1 correction. The conventional wisdom has flipped from “Davos Man” portfolios to “Joe Six-Pack” portfolios in recent quarters. But let’s not forget the extremity of the …read more

Source: Is The Biggest Treasury Drawdown In History Imminent? The "Bond Shock" Story Refuses To Go Away

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By Tyler Durden

A national “teach-in” movement is asking professors to set aside class time between Martin Luther King, Jr. Day and the presidential inauguration to “protest” oppression and challenge “Trumpism.”

As CampusReform's Anthony Gockowski reports, so far, 17 American colleges and universities have signed on to participate in the campaign originating out of UCLA, including such prestigious institutions as Princeton and UC-Berkeley.

The movement, known as “Teach, Organize, Resist,” is set to kick-off on January 18, strategically “poised between Martin Luther King Jr. Day and the presidential inauguration” as an explicit means of “challenging Trumpism.”

“Transform your classrooms and commons into spaces of education that protest policies of violence, disenfranchisement, segregation, and isolationism,” the organizers urge educators on the movement’s homepage, clarifying elsewhere on the site that participation “is an opportunity to affirm the role of critical thinking and academic knowledge in challenging Trumpism.”

“On that day, we intend to teach about the agendas and policies of the new administration, be it the proposed dismantling of economic and environmental regulations or the threatened rollback of the hard-won rights that form the fragile scaffolding of American democracy,” a description for the teach-in explains, later accusing Trump of institutionalizing “white supremacy” and allegedly proposing the “expansion of state violence targeting people of color” and other marginalized groups.

“On that day, we intend to organize against the proposed expansion of state violence targeting people of color, undocumented people, queer communities, women, Muslims, and many others,” the description continues.

“On that day, we intend to resist the institutionalization of ideologies of separation and subordination, including white supremacy, misogyny, homophobia, Islamophobia, and virulent nationalism.”

The movement, which has been spreading on social media under the hashtag “J18,” was started by “departments, centers, and collectives at UCLA,” but has since amassed the support of 18 other institutions, many of them public.

Professors at the University of California, Santa Barbara, for instance, are asking “all UCSB faculty to actively support” the teach-in, even suggesting that they “insert a note” about it in syllabi or “use your regular class time to attend a panel with your students.”

Those professors who elect not to require their students to attend the events, however, are still asked to “not penalize students for a missed class if they intend to attend panels.”

Scripps College, on the other hand, will be hosting a teach-in on “conservatism and right wing movements,” which will discuss Republican “strategies and tactics of mobilizing support, producing consent, and fragmenting opposition” in order to “help fellow students understand our present political moment.”

Other prestigious institutions, including Princeton University and the University of California, Berkeley, are also among the 17 American institutions participating (two others are foreign, and another is the American Anthropological Association). All told, nine of the participating schools are public, and a total of 46 teach-ins are currently scheduled to take place.

“Let it be known that on #J18 and beyond, universities, colleges, and high schools refused to bear silent witness to the politics of hate and fear; that in …read more

Source: Professors Pledge To "Use Regular Class Time" To Protest Trump

    

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