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By Tyler Durden

Until last night’s Trump statement that the US dollar is overvalued, it was smooth sailing for Wall Street’s momentum chasers, who happily piled into what until recently was Wall Street’s most crowded trade. How crowded?

For the latest answer, we go to the latest just released monthly Fund Managers Survey conducted by BofA’s Michael Hartnett who shows that according to Wall Streeters themselves, the dollar is the most crowded trade by orders of magnitude. In fact, in January the number of respondents who said the “Long USD” is the most crowded trade has risen from 35% in December to a whopping 47%, the highest response rate in the last few years of the survey. Far behind, in second and third place, are “short government bonds” and “long high quality/minimum vol” both at 11%.

What makes this observation paradoxical is how reflexive it is, because in the same report BofA writes that contrarians note “long US dollar seen as most crowded trade by a country mile”, and adds that the percentage of investors who think USD is overvalued is the highest in over a decade, or since Nov’06 (net 22%).

Still, they refuse to sell… until now. Because now that the president-elect has publicly taken the other side of the trade, we urge readers to take a second look at RCB’s warning that the “Pain Trade”, i.e. the inversion of Long-USD positions, has begun.

…read more

Source: Just How Crowded Is The "Long Dollar" Trade? The Answer In One Chart

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A new doctor’s office from Silicon Valley execs aims to change healthcare. …read more

Source: SF doctor’s office powered by sensors, AI

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By Tyler Durden

Having warned last week that the market is close to a violent unwind of the Trumpflation momentum trade, today RCB’s head of cross-asset strat, Charlie McElliggott, takes a victory lap following Trump’s overnight comments that the dollar is “too strong”, while slamming the Border-Adjustment Tax – a key catalyst for a dollar stronger as much as 15% in the future – and warned that the start of the “pain trade” has arrived.

The full note from RBC’s Charlie McElligott

TRUMP DUMPS BORDER-ADJUSTED TAX, “LONG DOLLAR” TRADES UNDER PRESSURE

Commence “pain trade.”

Let us begin today by taking it back to last Wednesday’s now-prophetic “RBC Big Picture” note:

“Fundamentally with the USD bull-case, this is a large part of why there is SO much focus on key items like the border-adjusted tax element of the Trump policy push. A large part of the Dollar’s strength (beyond ‘just’ the data) post- the election has been based upon this, where if the corporate tax rate were cut to say 20%, the Dollar would by economic theory have to then appreciate 20% (and of course too, an additional ‘tax factor’ driving the USD bull-thesis is that a meaningful chunk of $2.5T of profits held overseas by US corporates would be repatriated following a ‘business friendly’ incentive package / one-time cut to the repatriation tax to say 8-10%).

There is a view though within some verticals of the business community is that the border-adjusted system represents a very significant risk (consumer retail most notably) to their businesses / the broad economy as imports become more expensive and will create trade distortions (while the CBO itself says that the border-adjusted system would NOT reduce the trade deficit, which is a driver of its political popularity). There is so much discourse on this issue currently on this topic within the C-suite in fact some in policy circles are now saying they believe it appears increasingly likely that the ‘full’ border tax adjustment (currently in the Houses’ version of the bill) ends up being watered down to a sort of “relocation penalty” (which would likely then appear in the Senate-version of the bill).

Again, this is all a hypothetical, but if some of this ‘sense’ around said USD ‘bull driver’ turning potentially bearish was to ‘leak’ into the market, it would take some of the air out of the “long USD” trade–and that is where things could go off the rails. If the Dollar broke lower, its likely too that bonds and duration would rally; defensives (staples, utes, reits) and growth (tech / biotech / discret) squeeze against crowded value unwinding (fins, energy, indus); yen and euro would squeeze mightily; gold squeezes while copper pukes in a favorite commodities ‘pair’ unwind; HY could reverse weaker vs IG (currently everybody long CCC vs BB on the high beta trade)…this would be the theoretical path to our next pain-trade or even VaR shock.”

…AND SCENE.

Overnight, we see that Donald Trump has indeed talked-down the …read more

Source: RBC: "Commence Pain Trade"

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By Tyler Durden

Having been extensively leaked overnight so as to prevent “market surprises”, Theresa May has just begun her speech calling for a “clean Brexit” from the EU. Watch it live below.

Here are the highlights:

• MAY: WE WILL NOT SEEK PARTIAL OR ASSOCIATE MEMBERSHIP OF EU
• MAY: UK LEAVING EU, I WILL SEEK BEST DEAL FOR UK
• MAY: GOVERNMENT WILL PUT THE FINAL BREXIT DEAL TO A VOTE IN BOTH HOUSES OF PARLIAMENT
• MAY: DO NOT SEEK TO ADOPT MODEL ALREADY USED BY OTHER COUNTRIES
• MAY: WILL REMAIN WILLING PARTNERS, ALLIES TRADING PARTNERS
• MAY: DECISION TO LEAVE EU WAS NOT AN ATTEMPT TO HARM EU OR ITS MEMBER STATES
• MAY: VOTE NO LEAVE NO REJECTION OF SHARED VALUES
• MAY: OVERWHELMINGLY IN UK INTEREST THAT EU SUCCEEDS
• MAY: JUNE 23 A MOMENT WE CHOSE TO BUILD ‘TRULY GLOBAL BRITAIN’
• MAY: EUROPEANS WILL STILL BE WELCOME IN BRITAIN AND HOPE BRITONS WILL BE WELCOME IN EU NATIONS
• MAY: PRESERVATION OF UK UNION AT HEART OF PLANS

And in an unexpected twist, May also said that she will put the final Brexit deal to a vote in both houses of parliament:

• MAY: WILL PUT THE FINAL BREXIT DEAL TO A VOTE IN BOTH HOUSES OF PARLIAMENT

Cable is soaring on the news, as suddenly there is a possibiliy Brexit may not happen at all.

…read more

Source: Watch Live: Theresa May’s Brexit Speech; Says Both Houses Of Parliament Will Vote On Final Deal

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Xi Jinping has mounted a robust defense of free trade and global investment at the World Economic Forum in Davos. …read more

Source: Chinese President: No one can win a trade war

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The British engineering giant faces allegations of bribery in the U.S., U.K. and Brazil. …read more

Source: Rolls-Royce will pay $813M to settle bribery charges

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European Central Bank action won’t hold the euro together for ever. Reforms are urgently needed to lift growth. …read more

Source: The euro cannot survive unless Europe changes

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By Tyler Durden

Just over a year since Iran captured 10 US sailors – and detained them for around 15 hours – for entering Iranian waters “illegally,” it appears America’s nuclear-deal-partner wants to make sure its citizenry do not forget…

Huge billboard in Tehran commemorates the capture of the US sailors…

h/t @potkazar

…read more

Source: Iran Commemorates "Captured US Sailors"-Day With Massive Billboard

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By Tyler Durden

Submitted by Nick Camran of Letters from Norway

This is a personal story, discussing skilled immigration experiences and implications in both Norway and in the USA. I am a native born American of Indian origin having worked in both the US and Norwegian IT sectors. To translate the Norwegian references, you can right click in the Google Chrome browser and select “Translate to English” or use Google Translate.

Desperate to sell more fish, Norway is looking to India, allowing their IT companies increased access to the local market, in exchange for tariff reductions, which are currently high for European imports. On the surface, it appears to be a win-win deal but digging a little deeper, there are some serious long-term implications. (it still remains unclear whether or not this deal went through).

Monica Mæland: Norwegian Minister of Trade & Industry

Specifically, they want the following:

The ability to transmit and host Norwegian more personal information in India. Special areas within the company are sealed and secured, meeting Norwegian regulations. Indian IT workers can work in those zones same as a Norwegian in Trondheim or Oslo: otherwise known as a “Little Norway” zone. Since the connection is ubiquitous wit the onshore entity, they can access data containing credit card and social security numbers.

Although Mæland hopes that the Indians can make concessions on this point, they and the fishing industry are pushing hard. Geir Ove Ystmark, managing director of Seafood Norway, states that the industry is impatient.

Exemption from Norwegian Labor Laws: Tata Consulting Services (TCS), responding to an inquiry from the Labor Inspector, stated that Norwegian laws should not apply to Indian IT workers, residing onshore for short-term business trips. (If that sounds familiar, there is already a precedent from the US almost ten years ago.) Tata further argues that the workers are really employed in India, visiting Norway for a maximum of four to five months.

After the Vipps scandal at DnB (The Norwegian Bank) last year, involving the development of a now popular payment app, the labor directorate decisively denied the request. Against the hallmark Norwegian labor laws, the workers were putting in almost 16 hours per day to complete the project. I personally heard rumors, talking to TCS guys on the metro in Oslo, that they were not allowed to leave the office without their manager’s permission, even for a bathroom break or a movie over te weekend.

NRK (Translated from Norwegian)

Despite the reprimand, given to Tata, ordering them to correct the situation, Lise Raneberg of the Tekna engineering union, believes that they will exploit loopholes to circumvent the law. Nevertheless, Rina Sunder, from Innovation Forum Norway, believes, “Norway should meet India’s demand for easier access for IT workers.”

Premise:

The initial justification behind outsourcing and offshoring is that there is a skilled labor shortage in software and systems engineering. Generally technical, medical and engineering sectors experience shortages, requiring companies to hire offshore workers or companies, …read more

Source: Norway’s Fish For Brains Trade With India (Part I: Background)

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By Michael Snyder

The stage is set for a potentially very ugly confrontation between radical leftist protesters on one side and law enforcement authorities and Trump supporters on the other side.  It is being estimated that hundreds of thousands of supporters will be arriving in D.C. to celebrate the inauguration of Donald Trump, but it is also being estimated that hundreds of thousands of people will be coming to D.C. to specifically protest the inauguration of Trump.  These protesters plan to set up blockades, disrupt inaugural balls and generally cause as much chaos as they possibly can.  In fact, a spokesperson for #DisruptJ20 says that the goal of his organization is for Trump to be inaugurated “amid complete chaos”…

“We would like the headline the next day to be Donald Trump inaugurated amid complete chaos, not Donald Trump, inaugurated amid applause,” said Legba Carrefour, who is an organizer with #DisruptJ20.

Needless to say, causing “complete chaos” is going to bring many of these protesters into direct confrontation with law enforcement.  If these anarchists do what they say they are going to do, law enforcement personnel with be forced to physically intervene.  The following comes from #DisruptJ20’s official “call to action”…

Trump’s success confirms the bankruptcy of representative democracy. Rather than using the democratic process as an alibi for inaction, we must show that no election could legitimize his agenda. Neither the Democrats nor any other political party or politician will save us—they just offer a weaker version of the same thing. If there is going to be a positive change in this society, we have to make it ourselves, together, through direct action.

From day one, the Trump presidency will be a disaster. #DisruptJ20 will be the start of the resistance. We must take to the streets and protest, blockade, disrupt, intervene, sit in, walk out, rise up, and make more noise and good trouble than the establishment can bear. The parade must be stopped. We must delegitimize Trump and all he represents. It’s time to defend ourselves, our loved ones, and the world that sustains us as if our lives depend on it—because they do.

In addition to law enforcement, many Trump supporters have made it quite clear that they are not going to put up with physical obstruction or intimidation by radical leftists.  “Bikers for Trump” is one such group, and they are anticipating that 5,000 of their members will be attending the inauguration.  According to Bikers for Trump founder Chris Cox, his organization is “prepared to form a wall of meat” if necessary…

“The bikers are certainly used to being outnumbered and we are prepared to form a wall of meat.  We’re anticipating a celebration here. We don’t anticipate any problems. We have a strict code of conduct where we don’t condone violence. But again in the event that we’re needed, you can certainly count on the Bikers for Trump.”

“We’ll be shoulder-to-shoulder with our brothers and we’ll be toe-to-toe with anyone that is going to break through any police barriers, that’s …read more

Source: Will There Be War On The Streets Of Washington D.C. During The Inauguration On Friday?

    

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