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By Monetary Metals

Last month, we noted that there could be a trend change in progress. Not only are the prices of the metals rising (which is just a mirror-image of the dollar falling, from 27.6 milligrams of gold just before Christmas to currently under 26mg). But the scarcity of gold as we measure it, using the spread between the price of gold in the spot and futures markets, has been rising.

What could cause this? One thing is for sure. It is not about the quantity of dollars. This theory is as popular as ever, despite the absolute lack of a rising gold price from September 2011-2016. The quantity of dollars has risen steadily since then.

We write much about the frequent cases when traders place big bets on something which is wrong. But the fact of their big bets drives up the price. Suppose speculators were betting on a big increase in the quantity of dollars under Trump. Then we would see a rising price alright, but we would see a rising basis—our measure of abundance of gold to the market. This cannot explain the current market either.

So what can? Recall Keith Weiner’s gold backwardation thesis. In times of stress or crisis, it is always the bid, and never the offer, which is withdrawn. Suppose the US Geological Survey were to make a dire announcement—THEY ARE NOT SAYING THIS, SO DO NOT MISCONSTRUE!! Suppose they said that there will be an earthquake in LA, an 11 on the Richter Scale. Nothing taller than a dollhouse will be left standing.

There would be no lack of offers to sell real estate. Some would hold out hope of getting “their price”. Others would generously offer to discount it 10% or 25% from the previous level.

However, what would be conspicuously absent would be a bid. Most likely from Santiago Chile to Vancouver, British Columbia and as far east as the Mississippi River. At least until the quake hit and the danger was passed.

It is gold that will withdraw its bid on the dollar. The bid sputtered 8 years ago, and intermittently since then. Then it has mostly been steady in the past few years. And now there is a hint of it, in the February gold contract. It’s just what we call temporary backwardation—a short term blip confined to the near contract that is heading into expiry.

However, we think it is notable. It means someone or many someones are switching their preference to gold, in spite of the higher yields available in the market now. Or maybe because of it. This preference, unlike speculators buying futures with leverage, is not about betting on price. It is about safety. Gold, unlike a bond, does not default.

Is this the explanation, and the whole explanation? We don’t know. We can only report that there is a change in behavior in the market. Whereas previously—this was the pattern for years—a rising price was accompanied by rising basis. And now we have rising price and the cobasis is rising instead. …read more

Source: A Hint of Gold Backwardation – Rising Gold Scarcity

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Samsung Electronics Vice Chairman Lee Jae-yong is the latest high-profile figure to face potential charges in a massive scandal that has rocked South Korea. …read more

Source: Prosecutors seek to arrest Samsung heir

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Xi Jinping is making his first appearance at the World Economic Forum. China is ready to fill a vacuum in global leadership. …read more

Source: Davos marks the emergence of a confident China

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By Michael Snyder

Many are anticipating that a wonderful new era of peace and prosperity is just a few days away, but others are using terms such as “civil unrest” and “civil war” for what they believe is about to happen in America.  Without a doubt, Donald Trump is one of the most electrifying politicians in modern American history, but he is also one of the most polarizing.  So will the next four years bring us together as a nation, or will anger, frustration, strife and discord tear us much farther apart?  It is being projected that extremely large crowds of supporters will attend Donald Trump’s inauguration on January 20th, but the mainstream media is also reporting that “hundreds of thousands of protesters” are on their way to Washington.  Many on the far left are hoping to turn Trump’s inauguration into one of the biggest riots in U.S. history, but thousands of law enforcement personnel are going to do their very best to prevent that from happening.

There are sites on the Internet that are literally counting down the hours until Barack Obama leaves office.  Knowing that his time is short, Obama seems determined to squeeze as much “change” out of his final hours as he possibly can.  Just check out what the Washington Post says that he was able to accomplish on just one day last week…

On Thursday alone, the administration designated three new national monuments and expanded another two in sites including a forest in the Pacific Northwest and a school for freed slaves in South Carolina; took away one of the special immigration privileges Cubans arriving in the United States without visas have enjoyed for 50 years; announced sanctions designations against 18 senior Syrian officials for their role in the use of chlorine as a chemical weapon in 2014 and 2015; awarded the Presidential Medal of Freedom to Vice President Biden; and accused Fiat Chrysler of cheating on national emission standards for some of its diesel trucks.

And in the last few days of his presidency, there is a great deal of concern about how much more damage he may be able to do on his way out the door.  Late last week he enraged the Russians by moving U.S. troops into Poland, and Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova is warning that Obama still has a few more days left to “destroy the world”…

Zakharova charged that “Obama and his illiterate foreign policy team have dealt a crushing blow to America’s prestige and leadership” and described his administration as “a bunch of geopolitical losers, enraged and shortsighted.”

Obama’s administration still has a few days left to “destroy the world,” Zakharova wrote.

However, there is one piece of good news.  According to the Jerusalem Post, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry has told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that Obama will not support any additional action against Israel at the UN Security Council before Trump is inaugurated.

Of course politicians lie all the time, and John …read more

Source: Welcome To One of The Most Pivotal Weeks In Modern American History

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By Tyler Durden

Turkish Airlines Flight 6491, a cargo plane, has crashed into a residential area near the Kyrgyzstan capital of Bishkek, killing at least 20 people and injuring others, according to local authorities say.

The Boeing 747 was flying from Hong Kong to Manas International Airport, which is located just northwest of the Kyrgyz capital Bishkek.

As BNONews.com reports, photos and videos from the scene showed a large fire burning shortly after the crash, and subsequent images after the fire was extinguished showed that multiple buildings were completely destroyed.

At least 15 buildings were affected.

Kyrgyzstan's Ministry of Emergency Situations said more than 20 people had been killed in the crash, though it provided no further details. The health ministry had earlier put the death toll at 16, which included 15 people on the ground, of whom 6 are children.

It was not immediately clear how many people were on board the aircraft when it went down, though a Boeing 747 cargo plane typically carries a crew of at least two people. Turkish Airlines did not immediately respond to a request for information.

RT reports that among those killed are three crew members, RIA Novosti news agency reported. One of the crew members survived the crash, the local Emergencies Ministry said, as cited by TASS.

Members of the Kyrgyzstan government, including Vice prime minister Mukhammetkaliy Abulgaziev, are at the scene, according to reports.

All flights to and from Kyrgyzstan’s Manas airport have been suspended until further notice, RIA Novosti reported, citing local sources.

…read more

Source: At Least 20 Killed (6 Children) After Turkish Airlines 747 Crashes Into Kyrgyzstan Residences

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By Tyler Durden

Submitted by Federico Pieraccini via Strategic-Culture.org,

The preceding three parts of this series analyzed the mechanisms that drive great powers.

The most in-depth understanding of the issues concerned the determination of the objectives and logic that accompany the expansion of an empire.

Geopolitical theories, the concrete application of foreign-policy doctrines, and concrete actions that the United States employed to aspire to global dominance were examined.

Finally, the last bit of analysis focused particularly on how Iran, China and Russia have adopted over the years a variety of cultural, economic and military moves to repel the continual assault on their sovereignty by the West with specific attention was given to the American drive for global hegemony and how this has actually accelerated the end of the 'unipolar moment', impelling the emergence of a multipolar world order.

In this fourth and final analysis I will focus on a possible strategic shift in the approach to foreign policy from Washington. The most likely hypothesis suggests that Trump intends to attempt to prevent the ongoing integration between Russia, China and Iran.

The failed foreign-policy strategy of the neoconservatives and neoliberals has served to dramatically reduce Washington's role and influence in the world. Important alliances are being forged without seeking the assent of the United States, and the world model envisioned in the early 1990s – from Bush to Kagan and all the signatories of the PNAC founding statement of principles – is increasingly coming undone. Donald Trump’s victory represents, in all likelihood, the last decisive blow to a series of foreign-policy strategies that in the end undermined the much-prized leadership of the United States. The ceasefire in Syria, reached thanks to an agreement between Turkey and Russia, notably excluded the United States.

The military, media, financial and cultural assault successfully prosecuted over decades by Washington finally seems to have met its Waterloo at the hands of the axis represented by Iran, Russia and China. The recent media successes (RT, Press TV and many alternative media), political resistance (Assad is still president of Syria), diplomatic struggles (negotiations in Syria without Washington as an intermediary) and military planning (Liberation of Aleppo from terrorists) are a result of the efforts of Iran, Russia and China. Their success in all these fields of operations are having direct consequences and implications for the internal affairs of countries like the United Kingdom and the United States.

The relentless efforts by the majority of Western political representatives for a successful model of globalization has created a parasitic system of turbo capitalism that entails a complete loss of sovereignty by America’s allies. Brexit and Trump have served as an expression of ordinary people’s rejection of these economic and political regimes under which they live.

In Syria, Washington and its puppet allies have almost exited the scene without achieving their strategic goal of removing Assad from power. Within the American political system, the establishment, spanning from Clinton to Obama, was swept away for their economic and political failures. The mainstream media, …read more

Source: Trump’s Delusion: Halting Eurasian Integration And Saving ‘US World Order’

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Eight men now control as much wealth as the world’s poorest 3.6 billion people, according to a new report from Oxfam International. …read more

Source: 8 men are richer than 3.6 billion people combined

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By Tyler Durden

They once ruled the earth…

Source: Ben Garrison

…read more

Source: "Mainstream Mediasaurus"

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By Tyler Durden

Authored by Oaktree Capital's Howard Marks,

In August, I mentioned that I had chosen the title “Political Reality” for my memo in part because of my liking for oxymorons. I classed that title with other internally contradictory statements, such as “jumbo shrimp” and “common sense.” Now I’m going to discuss one more: “expert opinion.”

This memo was inspired by a thought that popped into my head when the outcome of the election settled in. You may point out that at the end of my November 14 memo “Go Figure!,” I said I wouldn’t write any more about politics. True, but I didn’t say I wouldn’t think about politics. Anyway, this memo isn’t about politics, it’s about opinions.

Last spring I attended a dinner where one of Hillary Clinton’s senior advisers was soliciting input, as she and her campaign were struggling to come up with an effective counter to Bernie Sanders’s populist message. Most of those present expressed frustration on the subject, until an experienced, connected Democrat assured everyone, “Don’t worry. She’ll win. The math is irresistible.” The Hillary supporters were relieved, and he turned out to be right: she won the nomination going away.

In late October, with the issue of Clinton’s private email server and the FBI’s new investigation further dogging her, that same seasoned Democrat was asked whether the election was in jeopardy. “Don’t worry,” he said. “She’ll win. The math is irresistible.” We all know the result.

The opinions of experts concerning the future are accorded great weight . . . but they’re still just opinions. Experts may be right more often than the rest of us, but they’re unlikely to be right all the time, or anything close to it. This year’s election season gave us plenty of opportunities to see expert opinion in action. I’ll start this memo by reflecting on them.

The Year Polls Stopped Working

Pollsters got off to a tough start last year with the June referendum concerning Britain’s membership in the European Union. Right up to the end, both pollsters and bookmakers considered U.K. citizens 70% likely to vote to remain a member. But, in the end, “Leave” won by a few percent.

The reaction was shock. Voters on both sides of the issue were unprepared for the outcome. Within a day or two, the leaders of Britain’s main political parties had stepped down. People began to seriously discuss what that outcome meant and how “Brexit” would be accomplished.

The explanations for the pollsters’ error centered around Britain’s lower level of experience with, and expertise in, polling. It couldn’t happen in the U.S. In fact, in the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections, Nate Silver, the proprietor of website FiveThirtyEight, correctly predicted the outcome in all 50 states once and in 49 the other time.

In 2016, FiveThirtyEight estimated the odds of Hillary Clinton winning as slightly better than 50/50 as of the end …read more

Source: Howard Marks: "So Much For The Experts"

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By Tyler Durden

While currency and fixed-income traders are having second thoughts about the extent of the Trump reflation trade just days before the inauguration of the 45th U.S. president as Bloomberg’s Vincent Cignarella writes, most readily observed in the recent 50% drop in 10Y real yields, which have slid from 0.74% in mid-December to just 0.38% in the past month, it is still far too early to call the time of death on the Trump rally.

Which brings us to the Icarus trade, laid out by Bank of America, which we pointed out last week. As a reminder, BofA’s tactical view is that after a Jan/Feb wobble, stocks & commodities will have one last 10% melt-up in H1. Call it the “Icarus trade”. The current melt up, which started back in Feb 2016, will be followed by a meltdown later in ’17 BofA’s Michael Harnett predicts.

This is how it will play out according to the BofA strategist. The current rally started in Feb 2016 with…

• bearish Positioning (BofAML Bull & Bear indicator = 0, cash = 5.6%, big >2SD underweights in Emerging Markets & energy)
• excessively bearish Profits (credit spread blowout, PMI’s crashing toward 45, global EPS negative)
• and Policy impotence (“Quantitative Failure”).

Thus the rally is likely to end with…

• bullish Positioning (BB indicator = 8, cash = 4%, unambiguous long positions in stocks, Japan & banks)
• excessively bullish Profit expectations (global PMI’s >55, US wage growth >3%)
• and Policy hawkishness (Fed jacks up short end of yield curve, ECB tapers).

Are we there yet? No, says BofA. Here’s why:

• Positioning is bullish but not dangerously euphoric (B&B indicator is 3.6, FMS cash @ 19-month lows of 4.8% but elevated versus 15-year history, global equities trade just 3% above 200-day moving average).
• Profits likely to be revised higher following strong Dec’16 ISM print (implies 10% US EPS growth – Chart 2); credit spreads well-behaved with US & European spreads at 18-month lows; however PMI’s getting closer to “peak” and US wages close to 8-year highs.
• Bond market yet to aggressively price-in hawkish monetary Policy: US financials conditions in “easy” territory according to our simple model; US yield curve has stopped steepening but yet to see a “bear flattening”; ECB “taper” remains one of the key catalyst for rates volatility, although for the time being it remains unlikely.

Sure, Hartnett concedes, you can get a wobble in coming weeks. Investors are partial to the “buy the election, sell the inauguration” argument. Fed anxiety could pick-up between the two winter FOMC meetings: Feb 1st & March 15th, especially given December surge in US wage growth. And Trump/Mexico/China headlines/tweets have the ability to rattle sentiment as the new President seeks to immediately boost his ratings via populist trade policies & legislation …from Occupy Wall Street to Occupy Detroit or Occupy Silicon Valley.

Still, Hartnett does not see it… yet.

Positioning, Policy & Profit arguments for a big Q1 correction. The conventional wisdom has flipped from “Davos Man” portfolios to “Joe Six-Pack” portfolios in recent quarters. But let’s not forget the extremity of the …read more

Source: Is The Biggest Treasury Drawdown In History Imminent? The "Bond Shock" Story Refuses To Go Away

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