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A Complete List Of What Trump Can, And Can Not Do, On Day One And For The Rest Of 2017

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By Tyler Durden

With the Trump inauguration just over 10 days away, attention has now shifted to what Trump will do the moment he steps foot in the White House, and as The Hill reported this morning, judging by his campaign promises, Donald Trump will be a busy man starting on his first day in the Oval Office: “Trump has pledged to take sweeping, unilateral actions on Jan. 20 to roll back President Obama’s policies and set the course for his administration. Many of Obama’s policies he can reverse with the simple stroke of a pen.”

The Hill then lays out some of the key agenda items in terms of Immigration, Environment, Lobbying, Trade and Healthcare.

The reality, however, is a bit more nuanced than captured in the report, and has to take into consideration not only what Trump’s intentions are, but how they would integrate with Congress, where simply structural limitations could put hurdles ahead of the Trump agenda.

So, for a more comprehensive preview of what Trump can – and can not do – both on day one, and for the rest of 2017, we present a recent analysis by Alec Phillips of Goldman Sachs (which, now that Trump has surrounded himself with Goldman alumni will be as critical when it comes to fiscal policy as Goldman was when it came to advising the Federal Reserve on monetary policy), which notes that the political agenda for 2017 is starting to take shape, with tax reform and Obamacare repeal seemingly at the top of the agenda.

Trump will be delighted to know that both items can be passed without Democratic support via the budget reconciliation process.

Obamacare repeal is first on the list. The Senate has already taken the first steps in the process, and the repeal legislation is expected to become law by February. However, Obamacare replacement legislation is apt to take much longer, particularly because it will require bipartisan support.

Tax reform process is expected to begin in earnest in late March or April in the House. The hotly debated “border adjustment” and limitations on interest deductibility in its proposal to be retained in the next version of the proposal. That said, while some limit on interest deductibility is likely to be enacted, there is only a 30% chance that the border adjustment proposal will be enacted this year according to Goldman.

The outlook for other issues is murkier. While infrastructure was discussed often during the campaign, there has been little congressional focus on it thus far, and it is possible that the program will be limited to package of tax incentives for public-private partnerships. Trade policy is also harder to predict. President-elect Trump will have authority to impose tariffs and has raised the possibility since the election. In the near-term, we expect the Trump Administration to focus on more targeted actions—antidumping duties and the like—but the threat of tariffs is not expected to recede, either.

It is also worth noting, that the policy focus so far has been on the …read more

Source: A Complete List Of What Trump Can, And Can Not Do, On Day One And For The Rest Of 2017

    

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White House Defends "Flunky" Streep’s "Carefully Considered" Anti-Trump Tirade

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By Tyler Durden

Following president-elect Trump's jab at “Hillary Flunky” Meryl Streep's anti-Trump tirade at The Golden Globes, The White House has defended the actress' “carefully considered message” as protected by her “first amendment rights.”

President-elect Trump was clear how he felt about Streep's speech

Meryl Streep, one of the most over-rated actresses in Hollywood, doesn't know me but attacked last night at the Golden Globes. She is a Hillary flunky who lost big. For the 100th time, I never “mocked” a disabled reporter (would never do that) but simply showed him groveling” when he totally changed a 16 year old story that he had written in order to make me look bad. Just more very dishonest media!”

And now, as The Hill reports, President Obama’s top spokesman on Monday defended actress Meryl Streep’s Golden Globes speech that criticized President-elect Donald Trump.

“She clearly was delivering a thoughtful, carefully considered message that she believes in deeply,” White House press secretary Josh Earnest said.

“It seemed to me to be fairly straightforward exercise of her First Amendment rights as a citizen of the United States,” he added.

Earnest said he has not spoken to Obama about the speech, but predicted the president wouldn’t publicly echo Streep’s criticisms while he is still in office.

Earnest concluded with a final jab at Trump…

“He’s got institutional responsibilities… He has to set aside those personal feelings in order to preside over an effective transition… The president has faithfully presided over a process that has done exactly that.”

Obama is an admirer of the Academy Award-winning actress. He awarded her the Presidential Medal of Freedom in 2014.

Who can blame her for bneing upset after dumping $114,000 on a loser…

…read more

Source: White House Defends "Flunky" Streep’s "Carefully Considered" Anti-Trump Tirade

    

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Alibaba’s Jack Ma met with Trump to talk jobs

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Jack Ma, the billionaire founder and executive chairman of Alibaba, met with Trump on Monday morning to tease plans for creating “one million” jobs in the U.S. …read more

Source: Alibaba’s Jack Ma met with Trump to talk jobs

    

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Alibaba’s Jack Ma meets with Trump

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Jack Ma, the billionaire founder and executive chairman of Alibaba, met with Trump on Monday morning to tease plans for creating “one million” jobs in the U.S. …read more

Source: Alibaba’s Jack Ma meets with Trump

    

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It costs $233,610 to raise a child

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A new government report shows it cost $233,610 to raise a child in 2015. …read more

Source: It costs $233,610 to raise a child

    

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Volkswagen executive arrested in emissions scandal

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The FBI has arrested a Volkswagen executive for alleged involvement in emissions scandal. …read more

Source: Volkswagen executive arrested in emissions scandal

    

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Why Don’t The Dollar And Bitcoin Drop To Their Tangible Value (Zero)?

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By Tyler Durden

Submitted by Charles Hugh-Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

If we refuse to recognize the high utility value of USD and its global ease of flow, then we will continue to misunderstand the demand for the dollar and its appreciation.

I have covered the many reasons why the U.S. dollar (USD) has strengthened in dozens of posts over the past 5 years, (Could the U.S. Dollar Rise 50%?, January 12, 2011), and I described the positive dynamics of bitcoin last summer in An Everyman's Guide to Understanding Cryptocurrencies (June 13, 2016), back when bitcoin was under $600.

The USD (as measured by the US Dollar Index) has gained almost 40% from 73 in 2011 to 102 recently, and bitcoin recently topped $1,000 (trading at $909 as this article goes to print).

These gains aren’t trivial, nor are they magic. They are the result of basic economic forces: supply and demand, utility, liquidity, capital flows and risk management.

Capital migrates to where it flows with the least resistance, i.e. to forms of capital that are liquid and offer low transaction costs—what I call ease of flow. Capital also migrates to relatively safe havens that are liquid and offer low transaction/holding costs, and to forms of capital with global utility.

Lastly, capital flows to the highest yield/return with the lowest perceived risk.

Given these fundamentals, it isn’t difficult to understand why capital is flowing into USD-denominated assets and bitcoin.

So what do the fundamentals suggest about the valuation uptrends in the USD and bitcoin? Have they topped out and due for a crash, or have they just started their appreciation cycle?

To formulate a coherent answer, we need to consider two things:

1. The foundations of their value

2. The inability of central states and banks to control their currencies and their place in the global economy.

Why Don’t the U.S. Dollar and Bitcoin Have Zero Value?

There’s a fair amount of confusion about why currencies (or in the case of bitcoin, digital commodities that share the utility functions of currencies) that are unbacked by tangible assets such as gold don’t just drop to their tangible value, i.e. zero.

After all, most USD are just digital entries and the rest are just paper. Bitcoin is also just a digital construct with no intrinsic value.

The answer boils down to utility-driven demand. If, as David Graeber discussed in his book Debt: The First 5,000 Years, notched sticks are needed to pay one’s taxes, then notched sticks are in demand because they have an essential utility; notched sticks acquire value (i.e. become “money”) if you can pay debts (such as taxes) with them.

As long as they retain this utility, they retain the value ascribed to them by the system that recognizes (or demands) payment of taxes in the form of notched sticks.

A notched stick has near-zero tangible value. Its value is entirely a social construct, as a placeholder for the goods and services produced by labor and capital.

It frustrates many observers that the U.S. dollar stubbornly refuses to drop to its intrinsic value, …read more

Source: Why Don’t The Dollar And Bitcoin Drop To Their Tangible Value (Zero)?

    

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BMW ‘absolutely’ committed to new Mexico factory

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BMW has reaffirmed its commitment to build a factory in Mexico even as U.S. president-elect Donald Trump threatens to introduce border taxes on Mexican-made cars. …read more

Source: BMW ‘absolutely’ committed to new Mexico factory

    

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Trump Fires Back At "Overrated" Meryl Streep Over Golden Globe Criticism

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By Tyler Durden

In the latest highly politicized Hollywood event, last night’s Golden Globes took aim squarely at Donald Trump, when Actress Meryl Streep delivered an emotional speech railing against President-elect Donald Trump, without actually mentioning him by name. while accepting the Cecil B. DeMille Award at the 74th annual Golden Globes on Sunday. The actress referred to the time Trump imitated a disabled New York Times reporter on the campaign trail, and said that particular, real-life performance broke her heart.

“But there was one performance this year that stunned me. It sank its hooks in my heart. Not because it was good — there was nothing good about it — but it was effective and did its job,” Streep said of Trump’s imitation of reporter Serge Kovaleski, who has a congenital condition affecting the joints. “It made its intended audience laugh and show their teeth.”

“It was that moment, when the person asking to sit in the most respected seat in our country imitated a disabled reporter — someone he out-ranked in privilege, power, and the capacity to fight back,” she continued. “It kind of broke my heart when I saw it, and I still can’t get it out of my head because it wasn’t in a movie; it was in real life.”

“This instinct to humiliate when it’s modeled by someone in the public platform — by someone powerful — it filters down into everybody’s life because it kind of gives permission for other people to do the same thing. Disrespect invites disrespect. Violence incites violence. When the powerful use their position to bully others, we all lose,” Streep said.

She then called on the media to use its agency to hold powerful people accountable.

“We need the principled press to hold power to account, to call them on the carpet for every outrage,” Streep said. “That’s why our founders enshrined the press and its freedoms in our Constitution. So I only ask the famously well-heeled Hollywood foreign press and all of us in our community to join us in supporting the Committee to Protect Journalists, and we’re going to need us going forward and they’ll need us to safeguard the truth.”

Streep’s comments echoed actor Hugh Laurie, who earlier in the night joked there would be no more Golden Globes if Trump has his way. “You and all of us in this room belong to the most vilified segments of society right now. Think about it: Hollywood, foreigners and the press,” Streep said. She proceeded to mention several actors in the room who were born outside the United States.

“Hollywood is crawling with foreigners and if we kick them all out, you’ll have nothing to watch but football and the mixed martial arts — which are not the arts,” Streep said.

Streep’s speech ended with a standing ovation — the first of the night, according to reports on Twitter.

This, predictably…

How long before @realDonaldTrump tweets that Meryl Streep is overrated?

— David Corn (@DavidCornDC) January 9, 2017

…read more

Source: Trump Fires Back At "Overrated" Meryl Streep Over Golden Globe Criticism

    

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Turkish Lira Plunges Over 2% To New Record Low, Yields Rise On Moody’s Warning

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By Tyler Durden

The collapse in the Turkish Lira, which has been relentless since last summer’s failed coup, has only accelerated in 2017, and especially this morning, when the Turkish currency tumbled more than 2% against the dollar – its single worst day since the July 19 military coup attempt – sliding as low as 3.73, down over 5% so far in 2017, and over 23% in the past 12 months.

While the broader catalyst are familiar, namely a slowing economy, seemignly daily terrorist attacks, a furious crackdown by Erdogan on government dissent and potential rating downgrades, this morning there have been two additional catalysts that have accelerated the selloff.

First Moody’s, which has the country on junk rating as of last September, issued a warning on the country’s banking system saying heightened security risks would weigh down on the economy and heap further pressure on domestic banks. The rating agency warned that Turkish banks’ bad loan ratio was set to rise to 4% this year from 3.24% “driven by the combination of high inflation, lira depreciation and the general worsening of the investment climate because of security issues and geopolitical tensions”. The caution comes as Turkey faces another downgrade to junk from Fitch later in January, which would see its last investment grade rating stripped away, promptly raising its costs of borrowing even more.

Only making matters worse, were comments from Turkey’s deputy PM, Nurettin Canikli, who indicated that Turkey’s head remains stuck deeply in the sand, when he blamed the plunge in the Lira on an unacceptable “campaign” to force interest rates higher. He also told AHaber TV in an interview that institutions will take whatever measures are needed for economy, that Citizens have no demand for foreign currency (not quite if judging by the plunge in the lira), that the Turkish economy will continue to “resist” such moves as dollarization level very low compared to past, and ultimately blamed the U.S. for its support to Syrian Kurdish PYD/YPG calling it “unacceptable.”

Meanwhile, the market is already pricing in further downgrades, and as of this morning, Turkey’s benchmark 10Y yields jumped another 15 bps near the highest over the past year.

So what is Turkey to do? One suggestion came from ING’s chief EMEA FX and rates strategist Petr Krpata who writes that a “large one-off rate hike could unleash a 10% rally in the lira” adding that “in the absence of capital controls, a large emergency rate hike seems to be the only remedy. If the root cause is domestic, the solution must be domestic too.”

However, he admits that the bar for a large hike is high – especially with Erdogan having made it quite clear such a move is unacceptable – and expects the central bank to continue with its “piecemeal approach and only hike interest rates gradually.”

He concludes that such an approach is unlikely to halt the lira’s slide and suggests further downside; sees 3.90/USD being tested before the case for a large interest increase grows stronger.

At the current rate …read more

Source: Turkish Lira Plunges Over 2% To New Record Low, Yields Rise On Moody’s Warning

    

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