Americans have a lot of choices about where to shop. But it seems like many consumers are increasingly flocking to Amazon. And so are investors. Many traditional retailers are hurting. …read more
Source: Amazon worth more than Sears, Macy’s and Target
President Obama came to office in January 2009 in the midst of the Great Recession. Much has turned around since then, but he’s been criticized for a slow recovery. …read more
Source: Obama’s economic record in 10 charts
The final tally is in: 11.3 million new jobs were created under President Obama. It’s far more that President George W. Bush, although less than Presidents Reagan and Clinton. …read more
Source: Final tally: Obama created 11.3 million jobs
By Tyler Durden
As it began so it will finish.
Putting the exclamation point on a trend that has marked Obama’s entire presidency, in the final Obama jobs report, the BLS announced that the total number of people not in the labor force grew once more, rising by 18,000 in December, and a whopping 841,000 in the past three months, to a new all time high of 95.102 million Americans no longer in the workforce.
This meant that the perennial bogeyman of the Trump administration, the collapsing labor force participation rate, remained flat near 35 year lows, risint fractionally from last month to 62.7% as a result of 152.111 million people employed in a civilian non-institutional population of 254.742 million.
Source: In Obama’s Final Jobs report, A Record 95.1 Million People Were Not In The Labor Force
By Tyler Durden
Overnight Media Digest
WSJ
– Donald Trump blasted Toyota Motor Corp for its plan to build a new Mexican plant, just hours after the head of the Japanese auto maker signaled a willingness to work with the new administration. http://on.wsj.com/2ihIF3G
– Apple Inc said its App Store generated record revenue of more than $20 billion for developers in 2016, as that business roughly maintained its growth rate even as iPhone sales volumes declined. http://on.wsj.com/2ihMaXF
– Struggling retailer Sears Holdings Corp has bought itself some breathing room through maneuvers that include the sale of its Craftsman brand for $900 million and the closure of 150 additional stores as it grapples with a prolonged sales slump and mounting losses. http://on.wsj.com/2ihIWTY
– Verizon Communications Inc is unsure whether it will proceed with its $4.83 billion purchase of Yahoo Inc’s core business, a top Verizon executive said, weeks after the internet company disclosed a second massive data breach. http://on.wsj.com/2ihCjRK
– T-Mobile US Inc plans to eliminate additional fees and taxes on the bills for its new data plan, the latest move by the wireless carrier to differentiate itself from rivals. http://on.wsj.com/2ihxIPy
– Fox News tapped veteran journalist and commentator Tucker Carlson to replace Megyn Kelly in one of its most prominent time slots, underscoring that the cable news network has no intention of moving away from its conservative roots. http://on.wsj.com/2ihxuHZ
– A U.S. federal judge ruled that drugmakers Sanofi SA and partner Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc infringed the patent that rival Amgen Inc holds for its new cholesterol drug. http://on.wsj.com/2ihAHre
– Shake Shack Inc’s chief financial officer, who successfully led the burger chain …read more
Source: Frontrunning: January 6
By Tyler Durden
Overnight Media Digest
WSJ
– Donald Trump blasted Toyota Motor Corp for its plan to build a new Mexican plant, just hours after the head of the Japanese auto maker signaled a willingness to work with the new administration. http://on.wsj.com/2ihIF3G
– Apple Inc said its App Store generated record revenue of more than $20 billion for developers in 2016, as that business roughly maintained its growth rate even as iPhone sales volumes declined. http://on.wsj.com/2ihMaXF
– Struggling retailer Sears Holdings Corp has bought itself some breathing room through maneuvers that include the sale of its Craftsman brand for $900 million and the closure of 150 additional stores as it grapples with a prolonged sales slump and mounting losses. http://on.wsj.com/2ihIWTY
– Verizon Communications Inc is unsure whether it will proceed with its $4.83 billion purchase of Yahoo Inc’s core business, a top Verizon executive said, weeks after the internet company disclosed a second massive data breach. http://on.wsj.com/2ihCjRK
– T-Mobile US Inc plans to eliminate additional fees and taxes on the bills for its new data plan, the latest move by the wireless carrier to differentiate itself from rivals. http://on.wsj.com/2ihxIPy
– Fox News tapped veteran journalist and commentator Tucker Carlson to replace Megyn Kelly in one of its most prominent time slots, underscoring that the cable news network has no intention of moving away from its conservative roots. http://on.wsj.com/2ihxuHZ
– A U.S. federal judge ruled that drugmakers Sanofi SA and partner Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc infringed the patent that rival Amgen Inc holds for its new cholesterol drug. http://on.wsj.com/2ihAHre
– Shake Shack Inc’s chief financial officer, who successfully led the burger chain …read more
Source: Frontrunning: January 6
Election Night 2016 told through the words of more than 20 journalists who were in the field, in the newsrooms, at the anchor desks, and in the control rooms, watching Donald Trump’s stunning win in real time. …read more
Source: Covering Election Night: In their own words
By Tyler Durden
Here's what to expect in a nutshell:
Last month's Non-farm payrolls saw an increase of 178k jobs, however, the month was highlighted by the Fed supported by wide consensus, to hike by 25bps in December. The US unemployment rate saw a figure of 4.60%, significantly lower than October's figure and printing the lowest unemployment rate seen since early 2008 but is worth bearing seasonal factors in mind. The noticeable disappointment in November's figures was the US average hourly earnings metric M/M (-0.10%) and many will be keeping an eye on these figures to see if expectations are correct and this was indeed an anomaly.
* * *
With all eyes likely on wage growth indications in the subtext of tomorrow's payrolls report (following The Fed Minutes' comments on full employment), Goldman Sachs is forecasting a better-than-expected 0.3% rebound in average hourly earnings (helped by more favorable calendar effects) and a better-than-expected 180k payrolls print (albeit with a small rise in the unemployment rate). However, they are careful to note that any downside can be blamed on “a considerable drop in temperatures.”
As Goldman Sachs details:
We forecast that nonfarm payroll employment increased 180k in December, after an increase of 178k in November and 142k in October. On balance, labor market indicators were moderately strong in December, with improvement in the employment components of many service-sector and manufacturing surveys and a rise in consumer confidence to a 15-year high. The key labor market subcomponent of consumer confidence also hovered near its post-crisis high, despite a modest pullback from November. We also expect above-trend payroll growth in the transportation and warehousing industry, driven by elevated hiring related to strong online holiday shopping. On the negative side, initial jobless claims drifted higher and continuing claims posted the largest survey-week-to-survey-week increase in nearly a year. December’s relatively cold payroll survey week could also constrain payroll growth in weather-sensitive industries such as construction, particularly after the warmer-than-usual November.
We do not expect the end of the election to be a major factor this month. If election-related uncertainty reduced or delayed hiring plans earlier in 2016, the end of the election could potentially catalyze a reacceleration in hiring, as we’ve documented in research studying past elections. However, the reacceleration historically tends to occur over several quarters, and perhaps more importantly, we would not characterize the post-election landscape as one of reduced uncertainty. We will study the industry composition of tomorrow’s reports for signs of an impact from the election, such as above-trend growth in energy or financial services, or below-trend growth in healthcare or import-reliant subindustries.
Arguing for a stronger report:
Source: Nonfarm Payrolls Preview: Blame Weakness On Weather, Strength On Trump
By Tyler Durden
Submitted by Douglas Murray via The Gatestone Institute,
2016 was a fine year for Islamist terrorism and an even finer year for Western political distraction. While Islamic terrorists repeatedly succeeded in carrying out mass-casualty terrorist attacks, as well as a constant run of smaller-scale strikes, the political leadership of the free world continued to try to divert their public.
The most striking example of the year came in the summer with the French debate over whether or not to ban the “burkini” from the beaches of France. The row erupted in the days after another 86 people were murdered in a jihadist terrorist assault — this time in Nice, France. With no one sure how to prevent access to vehicles or any idea how many French Muslims might want to follow suit, the French media and authorities chose to debate an item of beachwear. The carefully staged decision by an Australian Muslim woman to have herself filmed while wearing a burkini on a French beach ignited the row, which was eagerly seized upon by politicians.
At the local and national level, the decision to discuss the burkini allowed all the larger political issues behind Europe's growing security problem to be ignored. In the wake of Nice, there should have been a fulsome public discussion over what if anything can be done to ensure that people who have been in France for many years — in some cases their entire …read more
Source: European Immigration: Mainly Muslim, Mainly Male, Mainly Young
By Tyler Durden
Each quarter Credit Suisse’s U.S. Equity Strategy team, led by Lori Calvasina, takes a deep dive into the stock level holdings of long-only, actively managed small, SMID, mid & large cap funds to see which stocks officially qualify as the most crowded trades on wall street. While the results obviously vary across the size categories, Tech, Healthcare and Financials seemed to be recurring themes for the most crowded sectors at the end of Q4 2016.
Within the small cap category, 16 of the top 25 names were Tech (mostly semis) or Healthcare companies.
Retailing was particularly popular among the Mid Cap basket with Ross Stores and O’Reilly Automotive taking the lead positions as most crowded. Meanwhile, Tech and Healthcare again represented 10 out of the 25 names.
In the least surprising grouping of all, Microsoft, Apple and Google all topped off the list of most crowded large cap stocks with Facebook and Amazon not far behind. Meanwhile Merck and Pfizer ranked near the top of the list in the healthcare sector and JP Morgan and Wells Fargo topped off the most crowded names among large cap financials.
Finally, the SMID category was, once gain, dominated by Healthcare and Tech names which accounted for half of the grouping’s most crowded trades.
And while not terrible shocking, we were amused to find that the most crowded trades underperformed their benchmarks in every single size category in 2016.
And, with a few exceptions, the names pretty much underperformed every quarter and every month out of the year as well.
Taking a look at the longer-term, Credit Suisse also points out that the crowded trades have consistently underperformed for the past 5 years.
And scouring the quarterly 13Fs of the most prominent hedge funds seemed like such a great idea…we knew it was a bad idea to track Paulson…oh well, back to the drawing board.
Source: Here’s A List Of The Most Crowded Trades On Wall Street
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