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By Tyler Durden

If at first you don't succeed, intervene again! For the second time today (at midnight ET), Banxico officials confirmed the central bank entered the market to sell US dollars in an attempt to strengthen the peso. Now we await the next Trump tweet to take the peso back down…

As Bloomberg reports, according to a Banxico official who asked not to be identified, the central bank is looking to strengthen Mexican peso.

For now the move is far less impressive – which is odd given the lack of liquidity and an irrational peso buyer…

We have one other question… Is Banxico dumping its silver to receive dollars to sell to buy pesos?

Around $200mm notional of Silver was dumped in those few minutes.

As we noted at their earlier attempt, we can't really blame Banxico for intervening: with the local population, of which over half lives in poverty, angry and protesting the recent “Gasolinazo”, or 20% increase in the price of gas, the crashing currency is sure to send many other prices, especially of imported goods, through the roof while sending much of the population over the edge. Which is why Goldman's Alberto Ramos agrees that the central bank had to do something:

“In our assessment, some FX market intervention at this juncture is justified since market liquidity conditions became somewhat tighter, the MXN entered overshooting territory (excessively undervalued) and from current levels, significant additional exchange rate weakness, while making exporters even more competitive, can threaten two valuable public goods: price and local financial market stability. A very weak currency can have significant medium-term costs for the broader economy as it is likely to add pressure on inflation and wages (which would over time reduce the cost-competitiveness of the Mexican exporters) and prompt to a tighter monetary stance. Overall, higher inflation/wages and higher rates would be a clear negative shock to the non-tradable sectors of the Mexican economy, for they would not enjoy the exporters (tradable sectors) benefit of a weak currency.

So much for a “brave new world” in which global trade imbalances can be resolved without central bank intervention. If anything, the events from the first 4 days of 2017, in which we first saw a dramatic indirect intervention by the PBOC which sent the overnight CNH deposit rate to the highest ever in a desperate attempt to crush shorts, and then the Mexican direct intervention, have confirmed that 2017 will be very much like 2016 when it comes to central bank intervention, if not more so.

However, as Goldman admits, Banxico made one mistake which explains why virtually the entire post-intervention move has been faded:

In our assessment, if the MXN remains under pressure the authorities should entertain the possibility of using different intervention instruments, such as USD Dollar swaps, for they are not a direct claim on reserves and offer valuable FX hedging protection to the market in a period of significant uncertainty but no large spot market outflows.

There is a problem with using reserves to fight a currency war, one which China …read more

Source: Silver Flash-Crashes, Peso Tumbles As Mexican Central Bank Intervenes (Again)

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By Tyler Durden

In the immediate aftermath of the failed Turkish “coup” of July 2016, the immediate concern to the US was not the fate of the Erdogan regime, but whether the US would maintain access to Incirlik Air Base, a strategic output for the US airforce, allowing it fast and easy access to most of the Middle East and part of Russia even in the immediate absence of an aircraft carrier. It explains why when Erdogan said he felt snubbed by the US, he cut off the power to the US troops stationed at the airbase, and kept them in the dark for a considerable period of time, perhaps to remind Washington that in Turkey he is the boss.

Fast forward to this week, when on Wednesday, Turkish officials again made a veiled threat to ground U.S. warplanes at Incirlik Air Base over the U.S. denial of air support for the Turkish military inside Syria. The officials questioned the value of having the U.S. fly missions out of Incirlik in southeastern Turkey against ISIS targets in Syria and Iraq while Turkish forces are struggling to take the ISIS-held Syrian town of El Bab.

“This is leading to serious disappointment in Turkish public opinion,” Turkish Defense Minister Fikri Isik said, adding that “this is leading to questions over Incirlik,” Turkey’s Anadolu news agency reported.

He then once again treatened the US, when he said that to avoid repercussions that could affect Incirlik operations, the Defense Minister called on the U.S. to “start to provide the aerial support and other support that the [Turkish military] needs” to take El Bab, which would also drive a wedge between Syrian Kurdish militias supported by the U.S. in actions against the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria.

U.S. Air Force Col. John Dorrian said Wednesday than any actions by Turkey to shut down or limit U.S. air operations out of Incirlik would be disastrous for the U.S. anti-ISIS campaign now focused in Syria on the drive by a mixed Syrian Kurdish and Arab force against Raqqa, the self-proclaimed ISIS capital. What he meant to say is that it would disastrous for the U.S., period, as it would deprive the US of one of its most critical military outputs in the MENA region.

12 F-15s from RAF Lakenheath, UK are deployed to Incirlik AB, Turkey, November, 2015

“It’s absolutely invaluable,” Dorrian, a spokesman for Combined Joint Task Force-Operation Inherent Resolve, said of Incirlik. “Really, the entire world has been made safer by the operations that have been conducted there.” Well, that or precisely the opposite – it all depends on one’s point of view.

Turkey briefly closed its airspace to U.S. operations out of Incirlik last July and cut off power to the base during the failed military coup against the government of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan when suspicions ran high among Turkish officials that the U.S. may have supported rebels within the military. As the coup attempt failed, a high-ranking Turkish officer walked across the Incirlik airfield and tried to turn …read more

Source: Turkey Threatens To Block US From Using Incirlik Airbase

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By Tyler Durden

Submitted by Charles Hugh-Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

The Neocon-Neoliberals must be fired and put out to pasture before they do any more harm.

I have long held that America's Deep State–the unelected National Security State often referred to as the Shadow Government–is not a unified monolith but a deeply divided ecosystem in which the dominant Neocon-Neoliberal Oligarchy is being challenged by elements which view the Neocon-Neoliberal agenda as a threat to national security and the interests of the United States.

I call these anti-Neocon-Neoliberal elements the progressive Deep State.

If you want a working definition of the Neocon-Neoliberal Deep State, Hillary Clinton's quip–we came, we saw, he died–is a good summary: a bullying, arrogance-soaked state-within-a-state pursuing an agenda of ceaseless intervention while operating a global Murder, Inc., supremely confident that no one in the elected government can touch them.

Until Trump unexpectedly wrenched the presidency from the Neocon's candidate. The Neocon Deep State's response was to manufacture a mass-media hysteria that Russia had wrongfully deprived the Neocon's candidate (Hillary Clinton) of what was rightfully hers: the presidency. (The Neocons operate their own version of the divine right of Political Nobility.)

The Neocon-Neoliberals' strategy was to delegitimize Trump's victory by ascribing it to “Russian Hacking,” a claim that remains entirely unsubstantiated. Now that this grasping-at-straws Hail Mary coup attempt by a politicized C.I.A. and its corporate media mouthpiece has failed, the Neocon Deep State is about to find out the Progressive Deep State finally has a president who is willing and able to cut the Neocon-Neoliberals off at the knees.

Trump Is Working On A Plan To Restructure, Pare Back The CIA And America's Top Spy Agency.

If you want documented evidence of this split in the Deep State–sorry, it doesn't work that way. Nobody in the higher echelons of the Deep State is going to leak anything about the low-intensity war being waged because the one thing everyone agrees on is the Deep State's dirty laundry must be kept private.

As a result, the split is visible only by carefully reading between the lines, by examining who is being placed in positions of control in the Trump Administration, and reading the tea leaves of who is “retiring” (i.e. being fired) or quitting, which agencies are suddenly being reorganized, and the appearance of dissenting views in journals that serve as public conduits for Deep State narratives.

I have also long held that Wall Street's political dominance is part and parcel of the Neocon-Neoliberal ideology, and the progressive elements in the Deep State also want to (finally) limit the power of the big banks and the rest of the Wall Street crowd.

Is the Deep State Fracturing into Disunity? (March 14, 2014)

The split in the Deep State is a reflection of the profound political disunity that is occurring in the U.S. In other words, it isn't just disunity in the masses or the political elites–it's a division in all levels of our society.

The cause is not difficult to discern: the concentration of wealth and political power in the …read more

Source: Trump Aims To Cut The Neocon Deep State Off At The Knees

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By Tyler Durden

With all eyes likely on wage growth indications in the subtext of tomorrow's payrolls report (following The Fed Minutes' comments on full employment), Goldman Sachs is forecasting a better-than-expected 0.3% rebound in average hourly earnings (helped by more favorable calendar effects) and a better-than-expected 180k payrolls print (albeit with a small rise in the unemployment rate). However, they are careful to note that any downside can be blamed on “a considerable drop in temperatures.”

As Goldman Sachs details:

We forecast that nonfarm payroll employment increased 180k in December, after an increase of 178k in November and 142k in October. On balance, labor market indicators were moderately strong in December, with improvement in the employment components of many service-sector and manufacturing surveys and a rise in consumer confidence to a 15-year high. The key labor market subcomponent of consumer confidence also hovered near its post-crisis high, despite a modest pullback from November. We also expect above-trend payroll growth in the transportation and warehousing industry, driven by elevated hiring related to strong online holiday shopping. On the negative side, initial jobless claims drifted higher and continuing claims posted the largest survey-week-to-survey-week increase in nearly a year. December’s relatively cold payroll survey week could also constrain payroll growth in weather-sensitive industries such as construction, particularly after the warmer-than-usual November.

We do not expect the end of the election to be a major factor this month. If election-related uncertainty reduced or delayed hiring plans earlier in 2016, the end of the election could potentially catalyze a reacceleration in hiring, as we’ve documented in research studying past elections. However, the reacceleration historically tends to occur over several quarters, and perhaps more importantly, we would not characterize the post-election landscape as one of reduced uncertainty. We will study the industry composition of tomorrow’s reports for signs of an impact from the election, such as above-trend growth in energy or financial services, or below-trend growth in healthcare or import-reliant subindustries.

Arguing for a stronger report:

• Service sector surveys. Most of the employment components of service sector surveys improved or remained at encouraging levels in December. The Philly Fed non-manufacturing employment index rose most dramatically to an 18-month high (+5.4pt to +19.7), and the New York Fed index increased to a 9-month high (+1pt to +12.0, SA by GS). The ISM non-manufacturing employment component was disappointing, falling to 53.8 from 58.2, but remains at a level consistent with moderate growth in service-sector employment. Meanwhile, the Richmond Fed (-1pt to +12.0) and Dallas Fed (-1.4pt to +7.8) measures pulled back modestly to levels also consistent with expansion. Service sector payroll employment increased 139k in November and has increased 177k on average over the last six months.
• Manufacturing sector surveys. The employment components of manufacturing surveys were somewhat stronger in December. The ISM manufacturing employment component rose to an 18-month high (+0.8pt to 53.1), and the Philly Fed (+9.0pt to +6.4) and Kansas City Fed (+9pt to +10) employment components both improved sharply. On the negative side, the Dallas Fed (-7.4pt to -2.9), Richmond Fed (-6pt …read more

  Source: Payrolls Preview: Blame Weakness On Weather, Strength On Trump

      

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By Tyler Durden

Submitted by Joseph Jankowski via PlanetFreeWill.com,

On Wednesday afternoon, one day after reintroducing his Federal Reserve Transparency Act, Senator Rand Paul (R-KY) took to the Senate floor to slam his fellow Republicans for the $9.7 trillion of debt that a newly introduced budget resolution will tack on to the country's already out of control debt total.

Senate Budget Committee Chair Michael Enzi (R-WY) introduced a budget resolution on Tuesday that is being touted as the first step the newly sworn in congress is taking to repealing Obamacare. The legislation includes “reconciliation instructions” that would allow congress to dismantle the health care law as part of reconciling taxes and spending with the budget blueprint.

According to Paul, “there is a time and a place to debate Obamacare” but this new piece of legislation is a budget and he is unwilling to support the debt it will accumulate.

What will the first order of business be for the new Republican majority? To pass a budget that never balances. pic.twitter.com/DEBquJvK7P

— Senator Rand Paul (@RandPaul) January 4, 2017

“Republicans won the White House. Republicans control the Senate. Republicans control the House. And what will the first order of business be for the new Republican majority?” Paul asked.

“To pass a budget that never balances,” the Kentucky Senator answered his own question. “To pass a budget that will add $9.7 trillion dollars of new debt in tens years.”

“Is that really what we campaigned on?” Paul asked on. “Is that really what the Republican party represents?”

After stating that he is with his fellow Republicans for the repeal of Obamacare, Senator Paul went on to ask “why should we vote on a budget that doesn’t represent our conservative view?”

I will put forward a budget that freezes spending and balances the budget over a 5 year period. pic.twitter.com/nWRxeefFFz

— Senator Rand Paul (@RandPaul) January 4, 2017

“I’m not for it,” Paul said of the potential new debt. “That’s not why I ran for office. That’s not why I’m here. That’s not why I spend time away from my family and from my medical practice. It’s because debt is consuming our country.”

“There is a time and place to debate Obamacare, and I’m more than willing to debate that but this is a budget,” Paul exclaimed.

The Senator from Kentucky said he will put forth an opposition to the Republican majority’s resolution with his own budget that will freeze spending and create balance over a 5 year period.

I will put forward a conservative vision for the country, a vision of a balanced budget that balances within 5 years pic.twitter.com/OWTISquSyN

— Senator Rand Paul (@RandPaul) January 4, 2017

“I will continue to bring up to the American people that it is important not to add more debt,” Paul said.

“At the appropriate time, I will introduce an amendment that will strike and replace this budget and in it’s place I will put forward a conservative vision for the country,” the Senator said. …read more

Source: Rand Paul Goes Off On Republican Party Over New Budget Resolution

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By Tyler Durden

“I’ve got news for you,” warns Bloomberg's Richard Breslow, the world is a complicated place and getting more so, not less…

This is not your happy, some would say mind-numbing, environment where the only thing that ultimately mattered was blind faith in the global commitment of central banks to “do whatever it takes”. It will not serve investors well to fall back on analysis by reductio ad simplicate.

Did markets make their moves since the minutes because the Fed was dovish? That’s a stretch. I suppose it is possible to sift through and find the parts that might support such a case. But it would be a selective and incomplete reading of the words. Especially in light of Chair Yellen’s post-decision press conference.

The dollar was down in Asia today. Just think for a minute. Might it have had something to do with with the squeezes dramatically strengthening both onshore and offshore yuan rather than a belated understanding that the Fed might still take data into account going forward?

The offshore yuan is up 2% over two days. That’s a rarity, to say the least. But not that surprising as overnight funding rates are soaring. This squeeze feels more like a squash to all those traders who thought being long dollars against the yuan was a no-brainer trade to have on for the new year.

How many people cut risk at year-end but figured there was no reason to get out of those juicy 12-month NDFs? That was the safe trade. But believe me, they are now finding stops littered all over the place. Meanwhile, sending every Asian currency rebounding versus the dollar in sympathy and spooking regional bond markets but good.

Januarys aren’t like any other month. Everyone starts at zero again and losses feel larger than at other times.

It’s only the 5th, but people who only jumped back in Tuesday are already mourning the loss of their high water mark. This is how panics happen. It’s why we have volatility. But you’ll only understand what’s going on if you look beyond the U.S. borders.

This isn’t a Fed story. If the world looks different today then yesterday, it’s not because of the minutes, but rather a lack of perspective.

…read more

Source: "Blind Faith" Has Ended: The World Is A Complicated Place (And Getting More So)

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SpaceX CEO Elon Musk said on Twitter that “all systems are go” for a rocket launch next week. Well, maybe not all systems. He still needs FAA approval. …read more

Source: Musk says SpaceX ready for launch, but FAA isn’t

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SpaceX CEO Elon Musk said on Twitter that “all systems are go” for a rocket launch next week. Well, maybe not all systems. He still needs FAA approval. …read more

Source: Musk says SpaceX ready for launch, but FAA isn’t

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