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By Tyler Durden

• December Jobs Data to Wrap Up Obama’s Economic Legacy (WSJ)
• FBI Says Democrats Refused Access to Hacked E-Mail Servers (BBG)
• As Trump attacks, Nissan at bigger risk than Toyota (Reuters)
• Democratic leader Schumer emerges as Trump’s newest punching bag (Reuters)
• PBoC raises renminbi’s daily fix by most since 2005 (FT)
• China central bank urges rational investment in bitcoin (Reuters)
• China Doubles Down on Defense of Yuan (WSJ)
• Millennials Think the Trump Economy Is Going to Implode (BBG)
• Judge Rules Against Sanofi and Regeneron in Patent Case (WSJ)
• Ash Carter Says Putin Is Making It Harder for U.S. to Work With Russia (WSJ)
• China Plans Scrutiny of U.S. Firms If Trump Starts Feud (BBG)
• Duterte hopes Russia will become Philippines’ ally and protector (Reuters)
• Russia says has begun reducing forces in Syria (Reuters)
• Trump team has differences of opinion on shaping spy agencies (Reuters)
• Beheading attire and sexy suicide vests? Satire of ISIS wives stirs anger and praise (Reuters)
• Secret Report Shows Just How Badly Belgium Mishandled Hunt for ISIS Operatives (WSJ)
• Nissan halts joint development of luxury cars with Daimler (Reuters)
• People Are Bailing on Chris Christie’s New Jersey. How Is Your State Holding Up? (BBG)
• Verizon Executive: Unsure About Yahoo Deal (WSJ)
• Will OPEC Deliver Its Output Cut Deal? Here’s How We’ll Know (BBG)
• At least 33 prisoners killed in new Brazil prison uprising (Reuters)

Overnight Media Digest

WSJ

– Donald Trump blasted Toyota Motor Corp for its plan to build a new Mexican plant, just hours after the head of the Japanese auto maker signaled a willingness to work with the new administration. http://on.wsj.com/2ihIF3G

– Apple Inc said its App Store generated record revenue of more than $20 billion for developers in 2016, as that business roughly maintained its growth rate even as iPhone sales volumes declined. http://on.wsj.com/2ihMaXF

– Struggling retailer Sears Holdings Corp has bought itself some breathing room through maneuvers that include the sale of its Craftsman brand for $900 million and the closure of 150 additional stores as it grapples with a prolonged sales slump and mounting losses. http://on.wsj.com/2ihIWTY

– Verizon Communications Inc is unsure whether it will proceed with its $4.83 billion purchase of Yahoo Inc’s core business, a top Verizon executive said, weeks after the internet company disclosed a second massive data breach. http://on.wsj.com/2ihCjRK

– T-Mobile US Inc plans to eliminate additional fees and taxes on the bills for its new data plan, the latest move by the wireless carrier to differentiate itself from rivals. http://on.wsj.com/2ihxIPy

– Fox News tapped veteran journalist and commentator Tucker Carlson to replace Megyn Kelly in one of its most prominent time slots, underscoring that the cable news network has no intention of moving away from its conservative roots. http://on.wsj.com/2ihxuHZ

– A U.S. federal judge ruled that drugmakers Sanofi SA and partner Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc infringed the patent that rival Amgen Inc holds for its new cholesterol drug. http://on.wsj.com/2ihAHre

– Shake Shack Inc’s chief financial officer, who successfully led the burger chain …read more

Source: Frontrunning: January 6

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Election Night 2016 told through the words of more than 20 journalists who were in the field, in the newsrooms, at the anchor desks, and in the control rooms, watching Donald Trump’s stunning win in real time. …read more

Source: Covering Election Night: In their own words

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By Tyler Durden

Here's what to expect in a nutshell:

• US Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (Dec) M/M Exp. 178K (Prey. 178K, Oct. 161K)
• US Unemployment Rate (Dec) M/M Exp. 4.70% (Prey. 4.60%, Oct. 4.90%)
• US Average Hourly Earnings (Dec) M/M Exp. 0.30% (Prey. -0.10%, Oct. 0.40%)

Last month's Non-farm payrolls saw an increase of 178k jobs, however, the month was highlighted by the Fed supported by wide consensus, to hike by 25bps in December. The US unemployment rate saw a figure of 4.60%, significantly lower than October's figure and printing the lowest unemployment rate seen since early 2008 but is worth bearing seasonal factors in mind. The noticeable disappointment in November's figures was the US average hourly earnings metric M/M (-0.10%) and many will be keeping an eye on these figures to see if expectations are correct and this was indeed an anomaly.

* * *

With all eyes likely on wage growth indications in the subtext of tomorrow's payrolls report (following The Fed Minutes' comments on full employment), Goldman Sachs is forecasting a better-than-expected 0.3% rebound in average hourly earnings (helped by more favorable calendar effects) and a better-than-expected 180k payrolls print (albeit with a small rise in the unemployment rate). However, they are careful to note that any downside can be blamed on “a considerable drop in temperatures.”

As Goldman Sachs details:

We forecast that nonfarm payroll employment increased 180k in December, after an increase of 178k in November and 142k in October. On balance, labor market indicators were moderately strong in December, with improvement in the employment components of many service-sector and manufacturing surveys and a rise in consumer confidence to a 15-year high. The key labor market subcomponent of consumer confidence also hovered near its post-crisis high, despite a modest pullback from November. We also expect above-trend payroll growth in the transportation and warehousing industry, driven by elevated hiring related to strong online holiday shopping. On the negative side, initial jobless claims drifted higher and continuing claims posted the largest survey-week-to-survey-week increase in nearly a year. December’s relatively cold payroll survey week could also constrain payroll growth in weather-sensitive industries such as construction, particularly after the warmer-than-usual November.

We do not expect the end of the election to be a major factor this month. If election-related uncertainty reduced or delayed hiring plans earlier in 2016, the end of the election could potentially catalyze a reacceleration in hiring, as we’ve documented in research studying past elections. However, the reacceleration historically tends to occur over several quarters, and perhaps more importantly, we would not characterize the post-election landscape as one of reduced uncertainty. We will study the industry composition of tomorrow’s reports for signs of an impact from the election, such as above-trend growth in energy or financial services, or below-trend growth in healthcare or import-reliant subindustries.

Arguing for a stronger report:

• Service sector surveys. Most of the employment components of service sector surveys improved or remained at encouraging levels in December. The Philly Fed non-manufacturing employment index rose most dramatically to an 18-month high (+5.4pt to +19.7), and the New York …read more

  Source: Nonfarm Payrolls Preview: Blame Weakness On Weather, Strength On Trump

      

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By Tyler Durden

Submitted by Douglas Murray via The Gatestone Institute,

• In the wake of the attack in Nice, there should have been a fulsome public discussion over what if anything can be done to ensure that people who have been in France for many years — in some cases their entire lives — are not indoctrinated to hate the country so much that they drive a truck through a crowded sea-front on Bastille Day.
• Or there could have been a wide public debate over whether, with so many radicalised Muslims already in France, it was a wise or foolish idea to continue to import large numbers of Muslims into this already simmering situation.
• Merkel seems to hope that with this raising of a burka ban the German public will forgive or forget the fact that here is a political leader so devoid of foresight that she unilaterally chose to allow an extra 1-2% of the population to be added to her country in a single year, mainly Muslim, mainly male and mainly young.
• The burka and burkini, like the headscarf, are only issues because millions of people have been allowed, unchecked, into Europe for years. The garment is merely the simplest issue at which to take aim. Far harder are the issues of immigration and integration. It is possible that Europe's politicians cannot answer these questions, because any and all answers would point the finger at their own failings.
• The European publics might get fed up with the distraction tactics of talking about garments and instead seek answers to the challenge we now face, as well as retribution at the polls for the politicians who brought us here.

2016 was a fine year for Islamist terrorism and an even finer year for Western political distraction. While Islamic terrorists repeatedly succeeded in carrying out mass-casualty terrorist attacks, as well as a constant run of smaller-scale strikes, the political leadership of the free world continued to try to divert their public.

The most striking example of the year came in the summer with the French debate over whether or not to ban the “burkini” from the beaches of France. The row erupted in the days after another 86 people were murdered in a jihadist terrorist assault — this time in Nice, France. With no one sure how to prevent access to vehicles or any idea how many French Muslims might want to follow suit, the French media and authorities chose to debate an item of beachwear. The carefully staged decision by an Australian Muslim woman to have herself filmed while wearing a burkini on a French beach ignited the row, which was eagerly seized upon by politicians.

At the local and national level, the decision to discuss the burkini allowed all the larger political issues behind Europe's growing security problem to be ignored. In the wake of Nice, there should have been a fulsome public discussion over what if anything can be done to ensure that people who have been in France for many years — in some cases their entire …read more

Source: European Immigration: Mainly Muslim, Mainly Male, Mainly Young

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By Tyler Durden

Each quarter Credit Suisse’s U.S. Equity Strategy team, led by Lori Calvasina, takes a deep dive into the stock level holdings of long-only, actively managed small, SMID, mid & large cap funds to see which stocks officially qualify as the most crowded trades on wall street. While the results obviously vary across the size categories, Tech, Healthcare and Financials seemed to be recurring themes for the most crowded sectors at the end of Q4 2016.

Within the small cap category, 16 of the top 25 names were Tech (mostly semis) or Healthcare companies.

Retailing was particularly popular among the Mid Cap basket with Ross Stores and O’Reilly Automotive taking the lead positions as most crowded. Meanwhile, Tech and Healthcare again represented 10 out of the 25 names.

In the least surprising grouping of all, Microsoft, Apple and Google all topped off the list of most crowded large cap stocks with Facebook and Amazon not far behind. Meanwhile Merck and Pfizer ranked near the top of the list in the healthcare sector and JP Morgan and Wells Fargo topped off the most crowded names among large cap financials.

Finally, the SMID category was, once gain, dominated by Healthcare and Tech names which accounted for half of the grouping’s most crowded trades.

And while not terrible shocking, we were amused to find that the most crowded trades underperformed their benchmarks in every single size category in 2016.

And, with a few exceptions, the names pretty much underperformed every quarter and every month out of the year as well.

Taking a look at the longer-term, Credit Suisse also points out that the crowded trades have consistently underperformed for the past 5 years.

And scouring the quarterly 13Fs of the most prominent hedge funds seemed like such a great idea…we knew it was a bad idea to track Paulson…oh well, back to the drawing board.

…read more

Source: Here’s A List Of The Most Crowded Trades On Wall Street

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By Tyler Durden

Back in November we noted that the Internet Archive (Wayback Machine) had announced plans to move their servers to Canada out of fear of censorship under the new Trump administration, saying “on November 9th in America, we woke up to a new administration promising radical change.” The decision struck us as somewhat odd at the time given the website’s seemingly innocuous content.

That said, the decision is becoming much more clear with today’s announcement that the company will launch a “Trump Archive” with 520 hours of Trump-specific video including 700 televised speech and intereviews from the 2015/2016 campaign cycle. And wouldn’t you know it, many of the videos in the archive will come with convenient “fact checks.” Per The Hill:

The Trump Archive houses more than 520 hours of video of the president-elect, including more than 700 televised speeches, interviews and debates, according to an announcement on the Internet Archive’s website.

More than 500 of the Trump videos link to fact checks evaluating the veracity of the televised statement.

In the announcement, Nancy Watzman, the managing editor of the Internet Archive’s television section, said that the archive is inviting journalists and researchers to help suggest additions to the online Trump library.

Yes, and we’re sure the “fact checks” will be completely “fact based.”

Perhaps the Internet Archive could have their fact checkers provide a quick assessment of the following video…we’re sure it’s completely accurate but just would like a second opinion.

* * *

For those who missed it, here is what we previously wrote about Wayback’s move to Canada.

Before November 8th a whole host of celebrities vowed to leave the United States if Trump won the presidency (see “These Are The Celebrities Who Vowed To Leave America If Trump Wins“). As far as we know, George Lopez is the only one to subsequently confirm that he will actually be leaving the country despite numerous offers of free private planes and chefs to Lena Dunham to follow through on her pledge…unfortunately she still hasn’t taken the bait.

That said, it looks as though Trump’s victory has claimed one other defector: The Wayback Machine. The webpage archiving site has announced that after waking up on November 9th “to a new administration promising radical change” they have decided to move their operations to Canada.

So this year, we have set a new goal: to create a copy of Internet Archive’s digital collections in another country. We are building the Internet Archive of Canada because, to quote our friends at LOCKSS, “lots of copies keep stuff safe.” This project will cost millions. So this is the one time of the year I will ask you: please make a tax-deductible donation to help make sure the Internet Archive lasts forever.

On November 9th in America, we woke up to a new administration promising radical change. It was a firm reminder that institutions like ours, built for the long-term, need to design for change.

For us, …read more

Source: After Move To Canada, Wayback Machine Launches Trump Video Library, Complete With "Fact Checks"

    

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By Tyler Durden

Submitted by Mac Slavo via SHTFPlan.com,

We’re living in the calm before the storm.

That much everyone can sense. The stock market highs and holiday spending spree will soon be over, the inauguration will presumably go as planned, but that’s when everything could start to go off course.

The only question is how the storm is going to stir into a frenzy – there will be a pretext of some kind. What seems certain is that it is past time to get ready for a difficult period. This could be the big, slow squeeze and the long winter.

The economy became immune to stimulus and quantitative easing; the market can only be propped up so long, and the realities of raised interest rates a matter of timing for the Fed to decide. Now, President-elect Trump provides the catalyst necessary for a dramatic rise and fall in the economy.

With the force of the economic avalanche that is poised to fall upon us all, the policies and actions of President Trump will do little to stem the tide of what is already coming; for better or worse, there is little that Trump himself can do even though it may fall squarely on his administration.

There are many putting out the talking points now; the warnings are reaching a crescendo.

Jay L. Zagorsky, Economist and Research Scientist at Ohio State University, is predicting a recession for 2017, in spite of glowing outlooks, that could dominate headlines:

My outlook for 2017 and beyond is that the U.S. economy will likely see another recession.

[…]

It could be a sudden trigger like the collapse of Lehman Brothers in late 2008 or just a general loss of confidence.

[…] At the end of very long expansions, banks and finance companies are willing to lend to almost anyone because they become overly optimistic. Some of this willingness to lend carelessly is currently seen in U.S. car loans.

[…] like a game of musical chairs [….] suddenly “the euphoria becomes a panic, the boom becomes a slump.”

Recession, of course, is a euphemism for something much more far reaching… yet the sense of true panic is there. This could be bad.

Regardless, people across the spectrum are warning about the financial blowback that is likely headed our way. Many prominent economists are currently signalling either slow growth, or the onset of a crisis that no Trump could contend with, as RT notes:

Many of the experts said the global trade slowdown, seen during the slight recovery from the financial crisis that started nearly a decade ago, could worsen.

Emerging economies are expected to remain vulnerable… accelerating inflation and a soaring US dollar among the risks to the economic balance.

Dollar strength, weakening other currencies, will influence how emerging markets manage relatively higher inflation, as well as falling business confidence, they said.

[…]

“Mr. Trump and his team have promised growth of 3.5 to 4 percent or more, which we see as ‘magical thinking’ unless accompanied by accelerated productivity growth,” said Michael Carey, …read more

Source: The Era Of Cheap Money Is Ending: "This Is The Calm Before The Storm"

    

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