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By Tyler Durden

Submitted by Daisy Luther via The Organic Prepper blog,

What lies ahead for the economy this year? Will the economy finally collapse as predicted by many or will the early positive signs in stock markets around the world continue and the global economy will flourish?

I’ve taken a lot of heat for being “gloomy” and for “fear-mongering” lately when I’ve said that President-Elect Trump is inheriting a mess of epic proportions and that we may still be in for a rough financial ride. While I do think that Trump is a far better choice than Hillary Clinton ever could have been, when a situation has been declining as long as ours has, it would take an absolute miracle to turn it around without some pain.

And it turns out, I’m not alone in my concern about the worst for our economic situation during the upcoming year.

Here’s what 12 prominent financial experts are predicting.

Lawrence Yun is the chief economist at The National Association of Realtors? (NAR).

“The budget of many prospective buyers last month was dealt an abrupt hit by the quick ascension of rates immediately after the election. Already faced with climbing home prices and minimal listings in the affordable price range, fewer home shoppers in most of the country were successfully able to sign a contract.” (source)

Gerald Celente is a trends forecaster who has a long history of accuracy. You can find his work at TrendsResearch.com. He predicts:

“We’re forecasting the economy is not going to rebound with the economic proposals that are in place now. . . . The global situation has created an environment for financial panic. The financial panic conditions have been in place for quite a while. What Trump’s victory has done is played it off for a little bit possibly, but on the negative side, you still have the debt and interest rates going up and the debt that has to be paid. On gold, we believe right now is near its bottom.” (source)

James Dale Davidson. He’s the economist who correctly predicted the collapse of 1999 and 2007.

“There are three key economic indicators screaming SELL. They don’t imply that a 50% collapse is looming – it’s already at our doorstep.” (source)

Marc Faber is an investment advisor and fund manager. He is the publisher of the Gloom Boom & Doom Report newsletter and is the director of Marc Faber Ltd. Last month, he wrote:

“2017 will be [when] the US Economic causes a World Economic Collapse! Trump can’t stop a dollar crisis, stock mark crash or gold and silver prices skyrocketing! “. (source)

Faber was also quoted in an article on The Sovereign Investor:

Mark Faber, Dr. Doom himself, recently told CNBC that “investors are on the Titanic” and stocks are about to “endure a gut-wrenching drop that would rival the greatest crashes in stock market history.” (source)

Harry Dent, Harvard economist, predicts the safe-haven of gold will be wiped out during 2017. From a conversation with Economy and Markets:

“While many economists will argue that gold …read more

Source: What 12 ‘Financial Experts’ Predict For The Economy in 2017 (Spoiler Alert: It’s Ugly)

    

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India was plunged into chaos after its two largest rupee notes were banned in early November. What happens now? …read more

Source: What happened when India trashed its cash

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ExxonMobil and Rex Tillerson have announced their plan to address concerns about the huge nest egg the oil giant has promised to its former CEO. …read more

Source: Rex Tillerson to put Exxon nest egg in a trust

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By The_Real_Fly

Morgan Stanley is out with a helter skelter note of caution on markets, warning investors to sell the Trump inauguration while upping earnings estimates by 18% for 2018 — citing material upside in earnings and multiple contraction.

Plainly, if what Morgan Stanley says comes to fruition, stocks should trade higher on the backs of buybacks, fiscal stimulus, and big corporate tax cuts. However, the sages at Morgan are worried about the recent scale of the rally, coupled with Fed hike fever risks, European uncertainty and of course a rising dollar.

They see no near term catalyst to drive shares after the inauguration and suggest investors start to think about getting out.

U.S. stocks have rallied since the election, but it’s time for investors to start thinking about getting out, possibly timed for President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration, Morgan Stanley said.

“We are worried that there is arrogance in telling people that they should be worried, but to stay bullish for now,” Morgan Stanley said in a note dated Tuesday.

“Part of us thinks we should just sell the inauguration. After all, what incrementally positive and exciting outcomes could be produced in the first few weeks after that?”

“To us, it is WHEN, not IF we should fade this recent reflation trade,” it said.

Morgan Stanley set its base-case target for the S&P 500 at 2300 at end-2017, marking 16.2 times its 2018 earnings forecast, compared with Tuesday’s close at 2257.83.

“We can’t help but think that the Republican sweep has created a more uncertain and volatile outlook for the economy and corporate earnings growth,” it said, citing risks from a more hawkish Federal Reserve, China’s economic slowdown, a much stronger dollar and European political uncertainty.

Morgan Stanley said there was clearly a lot of earnings uncertainty ahead, but it still forecast that the S&P 500 earnings would be about 18 percent higher in 2018 than in 2016.

But it noted that the biggest driver of that increase – more than 50 percent of it — would come from Trump’s promised corporate tax cut to 20 percent from 35 percent. Another 30 percent of the earnings rise over the next two years would likely come from fiscal stimulus and nearly 27 percent from acceleration in share buybacks, it added.

One final note of weariness by Morgan is the possibility that companies might pass on cost savings to consumers following Trump’s tax cuts. This abhorrent specter of ‘competing away’ savings is hateful to Morgan and they feel that could pose as a potential pitfall for markets.

God willing, our valiant and industrious corporations will continue to gouge us and take said tax savings to increase corporate bonuses for C level executives and execute superfluous share buybacks to further enhance their standing at their local country clubs.

…read more

Source: Morgan Stanley is out with a helter skelter note of caution on markets, warning investors to sell the Trump inauguration while u

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By Tyler Durden

As previewed yesterday, today at 10pm ET, WikiLeaks’ Julian Assange would be interviewed by Fox News’ Sean Hannity. For those who are unable, or unwilling to watch, Fox, here is a link to the full interview which will take place over the next hour, until 11pm ET.

Live feed after the jump

…read more

Source: Jullian Assange Interviewed By Sean Hannity: Fox News Live Stream

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By Tyler Durden

The confirmation of former Goldman Sachs Partner Steven Munchin, who is Trump’s pick for Treasury Secretary, may have gotten just a little more problematic today, after Mnuchin declined to answer questions from Democratic senator Sherrod Brown of Ohio about his views on financial regulations, sanctions and his time as head of a bank accused of unfair foreclosure practices.

Brown, the top Democratic on the senate banking committee sent a letter on Dec. 21 asking Mnuchin to detail his position by Jan. 6 on issues that are under the committee’s purview, including fair lending laws and foreclosure-prevention programs. As Bloomberg reports, Mnuchin doesn’t plan to respond to the senator in writing, though several weeks ago he requested a meeting with Brown, who hasn’t yet accepted, according to Mnuchin’s spokeswoman Tara Bradshaw.

“Mnuchin will work with Senator Brown within the protocol of the finance committee – and will not be providing written answers in advance of a deadline yet to be established by the finance committee,” Bradshaw told Bloomberg on Tuesday in an e-mailed reply to questions.

Naturally, Brown was displeased by the very public snub by the former Goldmanite: “Senator Brown wants to have a substantive, productive conversation with Mr. Mnuchin, not just a quick handshake and hello,” according to an e-mailed comment from Brown’s office on Tuesday. Should Mnuchin, 54, further antagonize Brown, he may face daunting complications during his public hearing with the Senate Finance Committee members; he will also have to respond to follow-up questions in writing before they vote on his nomination. Brown also sits on that committee.

As Bloomberg notes, while Mnuchin can count on the support of the Republican majority in the Senate for confirmation, Democrats have signaled a tough fight. The former Goldman partner profited from the 2007-2008 housing market crash when he and a group of investors bought a failed mortgage lender that was later renamed OneWest Bank. It’s being investigated over allegations of unfair foreclosure practices.

Incidentally, it is Mnuchin’s actions at One West which are likely to be an incendiary topic during the confirmation hearing especially after today’s Intercept report, in which a leaked memo penned by the leaders of California’s state attorney general’s Consumer Law Section said they had “uncovered evidence suggestive of widespread misconduct” in a year-long investigation into Mnuchin’s One West Bank.

Some more details:

OneWest Bank, which Donald Trump’s nominee for treasury secretary, Steven Mnuchin, ran from 2009 to 2015, repeatedly broke California’s foreclosure laws during that period, according to a previously undisclosed 2013 memo from top prosecutors in the state attorney general’s office.

The memo obtained by The Intercept alleges that OneWest rushed delinquent homeowners out of their homes by violating notice and waiting period statutes, illegally backdated key documents, and effectively gamed foreclosure auctions.

In the memo, the leaders of the state attorney general’s Consumer Law Section said they had “uncovered evidence suggestive of widespread misconduct” in a yearlong investigation. In a detailed 22-page request, they identified over a thousand legal violations in the small subsection of OneWest loans …read more

Source: Trump Treasury Nominee Mnuchin Declines To Answer Senator’s Questions, Was Accused Of "Widespread Misconduct"

    

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By Tyler Durden

Having gotten virtually none of his “surprise” forecasts for 2016 right – among which that the S&P will decline (after it was supposed to rise by 15% in 2015 when it closed red for the year), the 10Y will not rise above 2.50%, Hillary Clinton will defeat Ted Cruz in the presidential election, Democrats will gain control of the Senate, Chinese growth drops below 5% as the country’s banks “get in trouble”, crude oil remains in the $30s, and global growth falls to 2% (he did correctly predict just one rate hike, and the continuation of the European refugee crisis), today Blackstone’s Byron Wien issued his list of Ten Surprises for the coming year for the 32nd time.

Considering that Wien has been doing this since 1986, one would think he has gotten better at it, but alas no.

So after last year’s embarrassment, not surprisingly the 83 year old has flip-flopped back to optimistic, and in his latest set of forecasts for 2017 expects the S&P 500 to rally to 2,500 as corporate profits jump to $130 a share. Which is ironic because the “vice president of multi-asset investing at Blackstone Group” failed to see the 10% rally in U.S. shares last year, instead expecting a down year.

For 2017, he anticipates that yields on 10-year Treasury notes will approach 4% as gross domestic product expands at a rate of 3%. He also expects German Chancellor Angela Merkel to lose her bid for re-election. The upbeat forecasts set Wien apart on a day when other legacy voices from a past generation voiced caution, among them Larry Summers who said investors are overlooking the risks of Donald Trump’s policies, while analysts at Eurasia Group said Trump could contribute to a level of global instability not seen since World War II.

Perhaps, but what we do know almost for certain is that assumping the opposite of Wien’s forecasts has a hit ratio well above 50%. Which means: S&P crashes, 10Y yields tumble, the US economy enters a recession, but at least Merkel will keep her job.

According to Byron, a “surprise” as an event that the average investor would only assign a one out of three chance of taking place but which Byron believes is “probable,” having a better than 50% likelihood of happening. We call it something you read one year from today and laugh.

Below is the list of Byron’s Ten Surprises for 2017:

1. Still brooding about his loss of the popular vote, Donald Trump vows to win over those who oppose him by 2020. He moves away from his more extreme positions on virtually all issues to the dismay of some right wing loyalists. He insists, “The voters elected me, not some ideology.” His unilateral actions throw policy staffers throughout the government into turmoil. Virtually all of the treaties and agreements he vowed to tear up on his first day in office are modified, not trashed. His wastebasket remains empty.
2. The combination of tax cuts …read more

   Source: After Getting Almost Nothing Right In 2016, Here Are Byron Wien’s "Ten Surprises" For 2017

       

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By Tyler Durden

Submitted by Rick Sterling via Strategic-Culture.org,

The U.S. establishment is not content simply to have domination over the media narratives on critical foreign policy issues, such as Syria, Ukraine and Russia. It wants total domination. Thus we now have the “Countering Foreign Propaganda and Disinformation Act” that President Obama signed into law on Dec. 23 as part of the National Defense Authorization Act for 2017, setting aside $160 million to combat any “propaganda” that challenges Official Washington’s version of reality.

The new law mandates the U.S. Secretary of State to collaborate with the Secretary of Defense, Director of National Intelligence and other federal agencies to create a Global Engagement Center “to lead, synchronize, and coordinate efforts of the Federal Government to recognize, understand, expose, and counter foreign state and non-state propaganda and disinformation efforts aimed at undermining United States national security interests.” The law directs the Center to be formed in 180 days and to share expertise among agencies and to “coordinate with allied nations.”

The legislation was initiated in March 2016, as the demonization of Russian President Vladimir Putin and Russia was already underway and was enacted amid the allegations of “Russian hacking” around the U.S. presidential election and the mainstream media’s furor over supposedly “fake news.” Defeated Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton voiced strong support for the bill: “It’s imperative that leaders in both the private sector and the public sector step up to protect our democracy, and innocent lives.”

The new law is remarkable for a number of reasons, not the least because it merges a new McCarthyism about purported dissemination of Russian “propaganda” on the Internet with a new Orwellianism by creating a kind of Ministry of Truth – or Global Engagement Center – to protect the American people from “foreign propaganda and disinformation.”

As part of the effort to detect and defeat these unwanted narratives, the law authorizes the Center to: “Facilitate the use of a wide range of technologies and techniques by sharing expertise among Federal departments and agencies, seeking expertise from external sources, and implementing best practices.” (This section is an apparent reference to proposals that Google, Facebook and other technology companies find ways to block or brand certain Internet sites as purveyors of “Russian propaganda” or “fake news.”)

Justifying this new bureaucracy, the bill’s sponsors argued that the existing agencies for “strategic communications” and “public diplomacy” were not enough, that the information threat required “a whole-of-government approach leveraging all elements of national power.”

The law also is rife with irony since the U.S. government and related agencies are among the world’s biggest purveyors of propaganda and disinformation – or what you might call evidence-free claims, such as the recent accusations of Russia hacking into Democratic emails to “influence” the U.S. …read more

Source: The War Against Alternative Information

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