NYC could get by with 78% fewer cabs
If we all shared rides, cities would need only a fraction of their cabs. …read more
Source: NYC could get by with 78% fewer cabs
Archive for the ‘Uncategorized’ Category
Obama Brags About "Remarkable Progress" Of Past 8 Years – Our Data Paints A Slightly Different Picture
By Tyler Durden
As we close out 2016 and draw nearer to the end of Obama’s 8 years in the White House, our commander-in-chief decided to celebrate by once again telling us all just how awesome he thinks he is via a lovely little tweet storm.
As we look ahead to the future, I wanted to take a moment to look back on the remarkable progress that you made possible these past 8 years.
— President Obama (@POTUS) January 1, 2017
Of course, as he often does, POTUS decided to highlight the number of private sector jobs that were added under his presidency as proof of his “remarkable progress.”
Facing the worst financial crisis in 80 years, you delivered the longest streak of job growth in our history. pic.twitter.com/Vk3PfRgZqF
— President Obama (@POTUS) January 1, 2017
And while the gross numbers may look impressive, a quick look at the “employment-to-population” ratio reveals that, even after Obama’s “recovery”, we still have the lowest percentage of our population actually employed than at any point since the mid-80s. This looks slightly less like “remarkable progress.”
Next, the President decided to boast about the number of “folks” that have been able to get health insurance under his reign.
After decades of rising health care costs, today nearly every American now has access to the financial security of affordable health care. pic.twitter.com/5e4nEcCxIM
— President Obama (@POTUS) January 1, 2017
Of course, he failed to mention the staggering premium increases that came with his “Affordable Care Act,” increases which even Bill Clinton admitted are crushing small businesses and the middle class. Somehow we suspect the people of Phoenix, AZ, who will see a 145% increase in their healthcare premiums in 2017, would define Obamacare as “remarkable progress.”
The following two maps below that beautifully illustrate the epic collapse of Obamacare coverage in just 1 year probably also would be described by many as “remarkable progress.” Notice that, despite Obama’s promises of increased competition, in reality, the majority of the country will go from having 3+ options for healthcare in 2016 to just 1 option in 2017 (charts per the New York Times).
2016 healthcare insurance carriers by county:
2017 healthcare insurance carriers by county:
Obama also implies that U.S. oil imports have fallen because of his “clean energy” initiatives.
We traded foreign oil for clean energy, we doubled fuel efficiency standards, & we acted on a global scale to save the one planet we’ve got. pic.twitter.com/7alrOtHNIr
— President Obama (@POTUS) January 1, 2017
When, in fact, the majority of the country’s crude oil imports have simply been offset by higher domestic production…production that increased despite Obama’s best efforts to stop it.
Finally, Obama closes his tweet storm with yet another vow to “stand with you as a citizen”…which we presume means that, …read more
Finally! Women won’t pay more than men for razors
Britain’s biggest supermarket chain has pledged to stop charging more for products that it markets to women. …read more
Source: Finally! Women won’t pay more than men for razors
Twitter’s top China exec leaves after 8 months
Kathy Chen, a managing director at the social media firm, is exiting after spending just eight months on the job. …read more
Source: Twitter’s top China exec leaves after 8 months
2,000 Finnish citizens getting guaranteed income
The Finnish government is giving 2,000 citizens a guaranteed income, regardless of their wealth or employment status. …read more
Source: 2,000 Finnish citizens getting guaranteed income
Iron Ore Stocks At Chinese Ports Hit New Record Highs: Why This Is An "Ominous Sign" For Prices
By Tyler Durden
As Axiom Capital’s Gordon Johnson points out, Iron Ore stocks at Chinese ports just hit a new record high in the last week of 2016, even as the spot price of iron ore staged a dramatic comeback over 2016, closing near the highs of the year. However, as Johnson notes, if history is any precedent, such record stocks “carry an ominous sign for iron ore prices.” Here’s why.
After jumping by the biggest 1-wk increase since Oct. ’15, +2.7% w/w, iron ore inventories at Chinese ports reached a new record high of 114.0Mmt on 12/30.
Using implied consumption as a denominator (i.e., the latest data on daily pig iron output x 1.6), days of inventory for port stocks topped 38.6, the most in 2-yrs.
While inventory restocking at China’s ports likely helped support prices, w/ an intense destock likely in the offing, Johnon sees “downside risk to prices as imminent.”
How much? Well, using the last big peak-to-trough cycle as a guide, 7/4/14-6/26/15, port stocks & avg. wkly spot prices fell 30.2% & 35.5%, respectively. Further, since the 7/4/14 peak, stocks/prices shared a 65% correl. Assuming stocks fall just half as much as in the last down cycle, using a simple regression, we est., ceteris paribus, prices could quickly fall back to $61/mt (Ex. 3).
One of the reasons cited for the massive stockpiling of iron ore is that China is planning a vast expansion of its railway network to support growth, with new lines estd. to span >18K miles (link).
However, as Axiom boldly notes, “China’s Massive Railway Expansion Plan ? a Panacea for Iron Ore or Steel Demand.“
While this would surely benefit jobs, Axiom estimates with a few assumptions, that the incremental benefit to aggregate steel demand would be a mere 4.8Mmtpa, or just 59bps over 806.7Mmt of estd. ’16 production.
How does it get here? Using publicly available data from WAB (NC) as a blueprint (link), assuming avg. weights for: (1) rails are 128lbs./yd., (2) joint bars are 90lbs./pair, (3) track bolts are 80lbs./yd., & (4) spikes are 59lbs./yd., Johnson estimates avg. steel demand of 448mt/mile of track (Ex. 4).
The firm further, and rather aggressively, assumes this expansion is completed in just 3.5yrs & all rail lines are double-track. What’s more, w/ ~90% of steel made in blast furnaces, we est. this incremental steel demand would translate to 6.9Mmtpa of iron ore demand, or just 59bps against an estd. 1,165Mmt of gross ’16 supply (i.e., 141Mmt in domestic output + 1,024Mmt of imports [Ex. 5]).
Bottom line: according to Axiom, both China’s iron ore demand, and the recent price surge, have topped out, especially following recent Beijing summits in which the topic of deflating China’s various bubbles is once again front and center. Finally, the recent downturn in the Baltic Dry Index may suggest that the spot price correction is set to arrive sooner than many expected.
Bitcoin Surges Above $1,000 As China Unveils New Capital Controls
By Tyler Durden
As noted yesterday, for the first time in three years, and only the second time in history, bitcoin rose above $1,000 in Yuan-denominated Chinese trading, however it was limited to the lower side of this “round number” psychological barrier in US trading, as BTC flirted with $999.99 for most of the day on the popular Coinbase exchange, without crossing it.
Overnight, however, Chinese demand proved too great and US markets had no choice but to arb the difference. So with Bitcoin trading in China at an implied price of over $1,050 at this moment, bitcoin finally soared above $1,000 in the US as well, trading just around $1,024 on Coinbase as of this moment.
Various catalysts for the recent surge have been cited, chief among which is the ongoing crackdown against cash in India providing a new source of demand for bitcoin. However, the most immediate driver of the recent burst in Chinese demand originates, not unexpectedly, from China where Beijing over the weekend implemented even more of what we have said since September 2015 will keep pushing bitcoin relentlessly higher: capital controls.
Recall that as we noted over the weekend, in order to further curb capital outflows, Chinese banks will be required to report all yuan-denominated cash transactions exceeding 50,000 yuan (around 7,100 US dollars) to the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), down from the current level of 200,000 yuan, according to a PBOC document released on Friday. Cross-border transfers more than 200,000 yuan by individuals will also be subject to the report process. In terms of foreign currencies, the report threshold remains at the equivalent of 10,000 US dollars for both cash transactions and overseas transfers.
How do we know that this latest PBOC intervention in capital markets was merely the latest form of capital controls? Because the PBOC immediately said it wasn’t.
As Xinhua reported overnight, “the policy stoked worries that the government is trying to impose capital control in a disguised form.”
“It is not capital control at all,” central bank economist Ma Jun said.
Actually, imposing limits on capital movement, i.e. controls, is by definition just that.
Logic, however, did not prevent Ma from continuing on a tangent, and he “explained” that the responsibility of report will be assumed by financial institutions, and there will be neither extra documentation nor official approval procedures for businesses and individuals. “They will not feel any change,” Ma added. He also noted that each person’s current annual foreign exchange purchase quota of 50,000 US dollars is unchanged, and normal activities, ranging from business investment and operation abroad to individuals’ overseas trips and study, will not be affected, Ma said.
The PBOC has said the move aims to improve monitoring of money laundering, financing for terrorists, graft and tax fraud, instead of targeting common business activities. Appealing to the Chinese savers not to withdraw their money out of fears of even more capital controls, Ma said that the world’s major countries also have similar rules, citing that transactions worth 10,000 US dollars …read more
Source: Bitcoin Surges Above $1,000 As China Unveils New Capital Controls
Islamic State Claims Responsibility For Istanbul Nightclub Attack As Manhunt For Gunman Continues
By Tyler Durden
One week after a video emerged of the Berlin Christmas market truck killer, Anis Amri, pledging allegiance to ISIS, on Monday the Islamic State claimed responsibility for the deadly New Year’s Day terrorist attack in Istanbul that killed at least 39 people and wounded dozens more, claiming the operation had targeted Turkey in revenge for Turkish military operations against the organization in Syria, a similar justification used by the Turkish offduty policemen to assassinate the Russian ambassador in Turkey in December.
The statement was distributed by Nashir News, a channel that publishes Islamic State propaganda, and which had called for followers of the extremist group to target holiday celebrations days before the attack the WSJ reported. In the statement, the Islamic State described the Reina nightclub, where many foreigners as well as Turks were killed, as a gathering point for Christians celebrating their “apostate holiday”.
“The apostate Turkish government should know that the blood of Muslims shed with airplanes and artillery fire will, with God’s permission, ignite a fire in their own land,” the Islamic State declaration said. There was no immediate comment from Turkish officials according to Reuters.
The jihadist group has been blamed for at least half a dozen attacks on civilian targets in Turkey over the past 18 months but, other than targeted assassinations, this is the first time it has directly claimed any of them. It made the statement on one of its Telegram channels, a method used after attacks elsewhere. Islamic State most recently killing more than 50 people in August at a wedding in Gaziantep by the Syrian border. Within days of that bombing, Turkey launched its operation inside Syria. Previously, the extremist organization struck Istanbul’s biggest airport, killing more than 40 people in June during an attack waged with bombs and firearms.
Attacks in Turkey have accelerated in recent weeks: on Dec. 10, two bombs claimed by Kurdish militants exploded outside a soccer stadium in Istanbul, killing 44 people. A security guard who survived that attack was killed at Reina. A car bomb killed at least 13 soldiers and wounded 56 when it ripped through a bus carrying off-duty military personnel in the central city of Kayseri a week later, an attack Erdogan also blamed on Kurdish militants. Islamic State’s Amaq website said the group was behind a car bomb attack that killed 11 people and wounded 100 in the city of Diyarbakir in November, but Turkish authorities denied this and said Kurdish militants carried out the attack. The Russian ambassador to Turkey was shot dead as he gave a speech in Ankara on Dec. 19 by an off-duty police officer who shouted “Don’t forget Aleppo” and “Allahu Akbar.”
* * *
Meanwhile, on Monday the Turkish police continued the manhunt for the suspected gunman behind the Istanbul nightclub shooting. The lone attacker sprayed bullets into a crowd of revelers who had come from across the Middle East and elsewhere to celebrate at the Reina, a cosmopolitan party spot overlooking the Bosporus.
The …read more
Source: Islamic State Claims Responsibility For Istanbul Nightclub Attack As Manhunt For Gunman Continues
Twitter’s top China executive leaves after 8 months
Kathy Chen, a managing director at the social media firm, is exiting after spending just eight months on the job. …read more
Source: Twitter’s top China executive leaves after 8 months
How A United Iran, Russia, & China Are Changing The World
By Tyler Durden
Submitted by Federico Pieraccini via Strategic-Culture.org,
The two previous articles have focused on the various geopolitical theories, their translations into modern concepts, and practical actions that the United States has taken in recent decades to aspire to global dominance. This segment will describe how Iran, China and Russia have over the years adopted a variety of economic and military actions to repel the continual assault on their sovereignty by the West; in particular, how the American drive for global hegemony has actually accelerated the end of the 'unipolar moment' thanks to the emergence of a multipolar world.
From the moment the Berlin Wall fell, the United States saw a unique opportunity to pursue the goal of being the sole global hegemon. With the end of the Soviet Union, Washington could undoubtedly aspire to planetary domination paying little heed to the threat of competition and especially of any consequences. America found herself the one and only global superpower, faced with the prospect of extending cultural and economic model around the planet, where necessary by military means.
Over the past 25 years there have been numerous examples demonstrating how Washington has had little hesitation in bombing nations reluctant to kowtow to Western wishes. In other examples, an economic battering ram, based on predatory capitalism and financial speculation, has literally destroyed sovereign nations, further enriching the US and European financial elite in the process.
Alliances to Resist
In the course of the last two decades, the relationship between the three major powers of the Heartland, the heart of the Earth, changed radically.
Iran, Russia and China have fully understood that union and cooperation are the only means for mutual reinforcement. The need to fight a common problem, represented by a growing American influence in domestic affairs, has forced Tehran, Beijing and Moscow to resolve their differences and embrace a unified strategy in the common interest of defending their sovereignty.
Events such as the war in Syria, the bombing of Libya, the overthrowing of the democratic order in Ukraine, sanctions against Iran, and the direct pressure applied to Beijing in the South China Sea, have accelerated integration among nations that in the early 1990s had very little in common.
Economic Integration
Analyzing US economic power it is clear that supranational organizations like the World Trade Organization, International Monetary Fund and the World Bank guarantee Washington’s role as the economic leader. The pillars that support the centrality of the United States in the world economy can be attributed to the monetary policy of the Fed and the function of the dollar as a global reserve currency.
The Fed has unlimited ability to print money to finance further economic power of the private and public sector as well as to pay the bill due for very costly wars. The US dollar plays a central role as the global reserve currency as well as being used as currency for trade. This virtually obliges each central bank to own reserves in US currency, continuing to perpetuate the importance of Washington in the global …read more
Source: How A United Iran, Russia, & China Are Changing The World
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