Archive for the ‘Uncategorized’ Category
Beware Trump Tweets, And Other Major Catalysts In 2017 According To JPMorgan
By Tyler Durden
In the latest macro update from JPM’s Adam Crisafuli, the strategist writes that the Trumpflation rally which more than doubled the market’s YTD gains since the Trump election, has gotten ahead of itself and that “it seems like a lot of headwinds that have been accumulating below the surface for weeks are quietly moving to the fore.“
Here are the details:
Specifically, the initial Trump/Ryan fiscal enthusiasm is getting tempered as investors focus on the details of tax reform, the likelihood of infrastructure spending, and the potential for negative trade actions (this has been discussed throughout the press over the last week).
Note that while investors haven’t been without Trump skepticism, most of the doubt concerns timing (when the Trump policies will be enacted) and not magnitude or efficacy (i.e. it is still the overwhelmingly consensus view that Trump’s “pro-growth” agenda will materially help growth once it takes effect) although this dynamic is starting to gradually adjust (there is more anxiety around efficacy).
Meanwhile, the conciliatory and anodyne nature of Trump’s initial post-victory rhetoric has shifted back to the pre-11/8 tone and the tweeting is actually growing more frequent.
Away from domestic politics, China worries continue to mount as CNY weakness persists (currency outflows are expected to intensify during the opening months of ’17 as quotas get refreshed) and Taiwan/Washington tensions build.
Bottom Line – the SPX hasn’t really moved since ~12/8 and all the major US indices will finish the year w/respectable gains. However, the Trump/Ryan enthusiasm (which has by far been the biggest contributor to the stock rally) is certainly waning (or at least suffering more scrutiny).
And as a bonus, here are JPM’s key preliminary catalysts for 2017:
- CES – the Consumer Electronics Show formally runs from Jan 5-8 in Las Vegas but “media days” take place Jan 3-4.
- US Dec jobs report Fri 1/6.
- Obama “farewell speech” on Tues Jan 10.
- ICR consumer conf. Jan 9-11. Orlando.
- Yellen will host a town hall meeting with educators from across the country. There will be a Q&A. Thurs 1/12 7pmET.
- US bank earnings season kicks off Fri 1/13 (BAC, FHN, JPM, PNC, and WFC all report that day).
- Earnings – week of Mon 1/16 is the first big one of the CQ4 earnings season.
- World Economic Forum 1/17-20 in Davos.
- ECB – first ECB decision of the year will occur on Jan 19.
- Trump inauguration Fri 1/20.
- Trump priorities – Trump will have a finite stock of political capital but a broad agenda, including tax reform (individual and corporate), infrastructure spending, deregulation (ACA,
- Frank, fiduciary rule, etc.), immigration reform, trade deal adjustments, Supreme Court nominees (at least one). What parts of the platform are prioritized and which get deemphasized?
- Trump fiscal specifics – what are the particulars of the tax reform bills – rates, deductions, etc.? How will the fiscal priorities be sequenced? Will corporate and individual tax reform get tackled separately, in which case the latter may not …read more
Source: Beware Trump Tweets, And Other Major Catalysts In 2017 According To JPMorgan
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Global Equities Encountering Resistance At Year-End
By Tyler Durden
The Global Dow Index is running into its long-term Down trendline stemming from the 2007 all-time peak.
Here in the U.S., equity investors have been a bit spoiled as they’ve watched index after index break into all-time high ground this year. Around the globe, investors have not been so lucky. Yes, most international indices have rallied solidly this year. However, with few exceptions, the rallies have still left these international markets shy of their all-time highs. One illustration of this situation can be seen in a chart of the Global Dow Index (GDOW).
We’ve posted many times on the GDOW due to its reliable conformity to technical charting tools, despite the fact that very little money is traded off of it. Additionally, we have found it to be an accurate barometer of the state of the global equity market. Specifically, the GDOW is an equally-weighted index of 150 of the world’s largest stocks. While this includes U.S.-based companies, its heavy dose of international exposure has led to its aforementioned position below its all-time high.
Furthermore, it is currently running into potential resistance in the form of its post-2007 Down trendline connecting the 2007, 2014 and 2015 tops.
Will this hold? We don’t have a crystal ball, but it has briefly repelled the GDOW thus far. And while most U.S.-based indices have succeeded in reaching all-time high ground, it is important to note that such circumstances are not unanimous. Along with the Value Line Geometric Composite, there are still some key hurdles facing global stocks as we head into 2017.
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More from Dana Lyons, JLFMI and My401kPro.
Source: Global Equities Encountering Resistance At Year-End
Putin Stunner: "We Will Not Expel Anyone; We Refuse To Sink To Obama’s Level"
By Tyler Durden
Vladimir the merciful?
Following this morning’s reports that Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov would recommend to Russian President Vladimir Putin a retaliation in kind, and expel 35 American diplomats, saying that “we cannot leave such acts unanswered. Reciprocity is part of diplomatic law” with Putin spokesman Peskov adding that “there is no doubt that Russia’s adequate and mirror response will make Washington officials feel very uncomfortable as well”, it was ultimately up to Putin to decide how to respond to the US.
Which he did on Friday morning, when in a stunning reversal, the Russian leader took the high road, and in a Kremlin statement said that, contrary to expectations, Russia won’t expel any Americans in retaliation to US moves, in a brutal demonstration of just how irrelevant Obama’s 11th hour decision is for US-Russian relations.
In the statement Putin said that Russia won’t cause problems to U.S. diplomats or deport anyone, adding that Russia has the right to respond in tit-for-tat manner, but it will not engage in irresponsible diplomacy.
The punchline, however, was saved for what may be Russia’s final slam of the debacle that is Obama’s administration saying that “It’s a pity that the current U.S. administration is finishing their work in such a manner” saying that Russia refuses “to sink to the level of this irresponsible “kitchen” diplomacy.”
Putin ended the statement by congratulating U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, and the American people on the New Year and invited the hildren of US diplomats to a holiday celebration at the Kremlin.
From the full statement posted on the Kremlin website:
“We reserve the right to retaliate, but we will not sink to the level of this irresponsible ‘kitchen’ diplomacy. We will take further moves on restoring Russian-American relations based on the policies that the administration of President-elect Donald Trump adopts,”
And with that one statement, Obama lost the diplomatic war with Russia.
Source: Putin Stunner: "We Will Not Expel Anyone; We Refuse To Sink To Obama’s Level"
Russia Retaliates: To Expel 35 US Diplomats After US Sanctions
By Tyler Durden
Russia warned it would respond proportionally to yesterday’s unprecedented sanctions and diplomatic expulsions unveiled by the Obama administration, and this morning it did just that when Russia’s foreign ministry announced plans to expel 35 U.S. diplomats and ban U.S. diplomatic staff from using a dacha and a warehouse in Moscow in retaliation to Washington’s sanctions, Russian news agencies reported.
Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov was quoted by the agencies as saying he had proposed the measures to President Vladimir Putin, and said that “we cannot leave such acts unanswered. Reciprocity is part of diplomatic law.”
He called the people in question—31 employees at the U.S. embassy in Moscow and 4 in the U.S. consulate in St Petersburg—“persona non-grata.”
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov
Mr. Lavrov also said Americans should be banned from using their vacation home near Moscow.
Other joined Lavrov: additional proposed measures are expected though: Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokeswoman Maria Zakharova wrote on her Facebook page Thursday, “there will be official statements, counter-measures” announced on Friday. Dimitry Peskov, Putin’s press secretary, echoed likewise: “We will certainly response adequately…and it will be determined in line with decisions adopted by the Russian President.”
Peskov warned, “there is no doubt that Russia’s adequate and mirror response will make Washington officials feel very uncomfortable as well.”
Ultimately, it is up to Putin to draft such retaliatory measures.
ABC News had previously reported, citing a US official, that Moscow had ordered the the shutdown of the Anglo-American School of Moscow – chartered by the American, British, and Canadian embassies in Moscow – but a US embassy official in Moscow said the school had not been shuttered. Russia’s foreign ministry also denied the school’s closure.
Nonetheless, as the WSJ notes, the “dispute marks one of the biggest diplomatic confrontations between Washington and Moscow since the end of the Cold War.” President Barack Obama in a statement on what he called a partial response to Russia’s alleged hacks, said the cyberattacks “could only have been directed by the highest levels of the Russian government.”
Russia has denied involvement and Lavrov, as well as millions of Americans, have accused the U.S. of neither having nor showing any evidence.
“The outgoing American administration of Barack Obama, who have accused Russia of all mortal sins and tried to blame us for the failure of its foreign policy initiatives, among other things, has groundlessly made additional accusations that Russia interfered in the U.S. election campaign at the state level,” he said.
The Russian act was in retaliation to sanctions imposed on Thursday by the US on Russian intelligence agencies and expelled what the State Department said were 35 intelligence operatives allegedly serving under diplomatic cover from the Russian embassy in Washington and the Russian consulate in San Francisco.
Shortly after Obama’s announcement, Donald Trump, who has shown a far more amenable side to dealing with Russia, said that “It’s time for our country to move on to bigger and better things” but added that “in the interest of our country and its great people, …read more
Source: Russia Retaliates: To Expel 35 US Diplomats After US Sanctions
The best (and worst) stock markets of 2016
Russia, Argentina, Brazil, Canada and Norway posted stellar stock gains in 2016. Other markets weren’t so lucky. …read more
Source: The best (and worst) stock markets of 2016
Markets In 2016: Winners & Losers
By Tyler Durden
As 2016 comes to a close, Reuters has compiled a list of the biggest winners and losers of the year from across the globe. Of course, after global equities started out the year on a weak note, in the closing weeks of 2016 computer algos investing professionals have rarely seen a stock they didn’t want to buy more of. That said, currency traders with exposure to the Egyptian pound or Nigerian naira didn’t make out quite so well. And then there were the Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde trades of 2016 that, after gyrating wildly throughout the year and giving a bunch of high-strung traders heart attacks, ended up the year, righly or wrongly, roughly where they started.
First, the WINNERS:
Glencore: After losing 70% of it value in 2015, the outlook for Glencore at the start of this year couldn’t have been bleaker. But those who had the intestinal fortitude to invest in the beginning of 2016 were handsomely rewarded for their efforts. After initially shedding another 20% of it’s value in January 2016, Glencore bottomed-out along with oil and, after a successful $8 billion debt refinancing, rallied more than 200% this year, with a trough-to-peak rise closer to 300%.
Anglo American: After posting a 2015 similar to Glencore (down ~80%), Anglo American , the world’s fifth-largest diversified mining company, took drastic action in the new year as the commodity rout deepened. In February, the company announced it would retain only 16 of its 45 core assets (dumping its coal, nickel and iron ore businesses, among others) and shed around 60% of its 128,000-strong workforce. Those who lived through the restructuring efforts enjoyed a 290% rise in 2016, and a trough-to-peak rise closer to 500%.
Bitcoin: The digital cryptocurrency is closing the year at a three-year peak. It has more than doubled in 2016, and the total value of all bitcoins in circulation is now at record high above $15 billion. Of course, the exponential growth of Bitcoin in 2016 coincides with the steady depreciation of the Chinese yuan (the majority of bitcoin trading is done in China), the abolition of high-value banknotes in India and continued growing demand to move money across the globe quickly and anonymously.
Tencent: Finally, the winners list was capped off with Tencent Holding Ltd, China’s largest social network and online entertainment firm. With a market cap of $225 billion, Tencent is the most valuable emerging market company in the world and its shares were up 20% in 2016, far outperforming the broader Hang Seng index, which is down 0.7%.
Now for the LOSERS:
Egyptian Pound: Egypt floated its currency in November in a move widely seen as a necessary step to help secure a $12 billion IMF loan. The initial devaluation from its peg of 8.8 per dollar was by around a third. But as 2017 draws closer, the currency is trading at more than …read more
Source: Markets In 2016: Winners & Losers
The Walls Have Ears: Warrant Granted For Amazon Echo Home Data, Setting Precedent
By Tyler Durden
Submitted by Alice Salles via TheAntiMedia.org,
Technology has, for the better part of the last decade, changed our lives in significant and groundbreaking ways. But as technology continues to make great strides, helping us change the way we do business and live our lives, it is also employed by bureaucrats looking to keep an eye on everyone.
Thanks to Edward Snowden and others before him, like former U.S. National Security Agency (NSA) intelligence official William Binney, we now know U.S. officials make use of secret courts to gain access to phone records — ignoring due process and, of course, the 4th Amendment to the U.S. constitution. But even though the NSA revelations were widely discussed and privacy advocates have continued to press legislators and officials to justify the illegality of their actions, things seem to have only gotten worse — at least as far as official government policy is concerned.
Instead of reforming the system to make sure officials observe the constitution, laws have been passed to increase the government’s access to technologies used widely by Americans and visitors. The result? The widespread normalization of government spying.
Instead of sweeping outrage, many Americans continue to feel that being spied upon is part of their everyday lives — and that instead of fighting it, they should embrace it as a means to protect the country from external forces.
To nearly half of the population, recent news about a court order regarding a private Amazon Echo may not seem as shocking as it should.
Warrant Issued for Amazon Echo Device, Setting a Precedent
A case involving a murder in Arkansas just helped the public learn that companies like Amazon often retain recordings of people’s conversations through devices like Amazon Echo — and that these recordings are stored in servers that may later be subject to law enforcement investigations. Depending on how the case shapes up, it could set a legal precedent that would open up government access to similar smart devices, and even force companies to keep these recordings in storage for future investigations.
The first warrant naming this specific device was tied to a Bentonville, Arkansas, murder that happened in November 2015. The official document asked the company to release “any recordings between November 21 and November 22, 2015.” The Amazon Echo device in question belongs to James Andrew Bates, the suspect facing a first-degree murder charge associated with the death of his friend, Victor Collins. Collins was allegedly strangled and drowned in Bates’ hot tub.
In the search warrant, police wrote that the “records … retained by Amazon.com … are evidence related to the case under investigation.” Nevertheless, Amazon did not release any data. Instead, the company provided investigators with the suspect’s account details, which include past purchases. Despite Amazon’s decision not to cooperate unless “a valid and binding legal demand properly [is] served,” officials may still be able to recover …read more
Source: The Walls Have Ears: Warrant Granted For Amazon Echo Home Data, Setting Precedent
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Spain’s Population Is Shrinking At 72 People Per Day
By Tyler Durden
Since the economic crisis of 2008, Spain has seen a steady trend of increasingly fewer births. In the first half of 2016, 12,998 more people died than were born in Spain and the number of newborns fell by 4.6%.
Put simply, as El Pais reports, Spain’s population is shrinking at a rate of 72 people per day, essentially due to a historically low birthrate, according to a study released by the National Institute of Statistics (INE).
The survey also found that there were fewer deaths (7.8% less) and fewer marriages (2.7% less) in the first half of 2016 than in the first half of 2015.
The dearth of newborns was especially acute in Catalonia and Aragón, as well as in the exclave city of Melilla. In the first half of 2016, Catalonia had 9% fewer births, Melilla saw a baby decrease of 7.4% and Aragón had 6% fewer births than in the first half of last year.
On the other hand, the Balearic Islands, Ceuta and Asturias all saw slight increases in the number of births – between 0.6% and 1.5%.
“Spain has sailed through the 20th century in a complete blank when it comes to demographic policies, and there is no hint that this will be corrected,” Julio Vinuesa, a demographer at Madrid’s Autónoma University, warns, adding that “we are witnessing a rapid decline in births and it seems that nobody cares. In the short term it is a relief because it means less spending for families and for the state, and nobody is complaining because no one stops to think about the future consequences.”
Those consequences include slower growth (or absolute contraction)…
As El Pais notes, British economist Paul Wallace, author of Agequake, which investigates the causes and effects of population aging, has argued that the major investment for any society must be in its own replacement. In this case, Spain has failed, with a major driver seemingly that the percentage of young people between 25 and 29 who still lived with their families at home, often unemployed or holding precarious jobs, exceeded 60 percent, compared with ratios below 20 percent in Germany, France and Britain.
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In any event, the experts say that Spain isn’t getting any younger. By
2066, Spain’s population, currently around 46.4 million, will have
shrunk by around 5.4 million, suggests another study released by the INE
in October… think what that would mean for economic growth!!
Source: Spain’s Population Is Shrinking At 72 People Per Day
2017 May Go Dark, Prepare During The Calm: "A Storm is Coming"
By Tyler Durden
One can almost sense that unforeseen events could bring chaos to America, warns SHTFPlan.com's Mac Slavo…
Debts and economic catastrophes could play out, terrorism could strike, wars could spark to life, disaster may hit, and much more. While many have been optimistic about the promises of a new president, and a brighter spot for the free market, global affairs are complicated, and often bite from both ends. With Trump, no one really knows what to expect, and regardless, one man cannot steer all world events in his direction.
There are indeed rocky times ahead, and 2017 could be the year that goes dark. Prepare during this calm before the storm.
A Storm is Coming: Preppers Must Stay Vigilant in 2017
While many believe the shift in government leaders in 2017 will bring us back to better times, one can never be too sure. As my father always said, “Don’t put all your eggs in one basket.” These are still uncertain times, and as Jeremiah Johnson emphasizes in this article – with that uncertainty, we must continue to be ever vigilant in our preparedness endeavors.
ReadyNutrition Fans, this piece is an important exhortation to you – a sort of plea, if you will – to not lose your focus in preparations and your readiness-stance during these times. With the Dow-Jones Industrial skyrocketing, the Christmas Holidays in full gear, Donald J. Trump about to be inaugurated, and the glow of a new patriotic dawn, everything seems OK, right? Wrong. This is not alarmist, but pragmatic. We cannot allow a burst of patriotic positive fervor to dull the perception of the last 8 years.
Losing our focus is what allowed those 8 years in the first place.
The Unemployment Rate
The welcoming of a new President brings renewed hope in our government system; however, there is a lot of road to travel before the country is fixed. While many preppers feel relieved and are slowing their preparedness endeavors down, many preparedness experts are stressing the importance of not giving up. As preppers, we must keep an eye on indicators like the economy and unemployment. Bear in mind that unemployment is deliberately under-reported. The economy is in bad shape. Everyone is focusing on the happy times of Christmas cheer and family festivities. I adjure to your intellects: do not relent in your focus or your activities to prepare for what is still around the corner.
They’re not celebrating festive, happy shopper days in Venezuela, where women are cutting off their own hair and selling it just to buy loaves of bread, or where a whole shopping bag full of Venezuelan Bolivars will not even buy a few days’ worth of essential supplies.
The Economy
The economy of the United States will take quite some time to recover. You can continue in the true economy that you have started: the acquisition of …read more
Source: 2017 May Go Dark, Prepare During The Calm: "A Storm is Coming"
