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By Tyler Durden

Since November 8th, disaffected Democrats have tried and failed repeatedly to undo the 2016 Presidential election. First their was the failed recount effort launched by Jill Stein, an obvious front for the Clinton campaign, in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Embarrassingly, that effort actually resulted in a wider margin of victory for Trump but not before Stein wasted $7 million raised from devastated Hillary supporters.

Then there was the coordinated efforts of the White House, other prominent democrats and the mainstream media to turn the Electoral College against Trump, because Russia. Ironically, that effort too resulted in a wider margin of victory for Trump as only 2 electors refused to vote for him while 5 electors abandoned Hillary. Anyone else noticing a theme here?

Now, with the Electoral College vote done and no other options left, the angry, demoralized dems have turned their fury toward the FBI with allegations that the warrant issued for Anthony Weiner’s computer did not “give rise to probable cause” which must therefore imply some nefarious collusion between James Comey, Trump and Putin.

Per Bloomberg, attorney Randol Schoenberg sued for the warrant to be released and has since expressed that he is “appalled” by its contents which failed to present “probable cause.”

Schoenberg said he sought the documents because he couldn’t figure out why a judge found there was probable cause that a crime was committed, given that the FBI had already concluded its investigation of Clinton’s e-mails and not charged her.

“I see nothing at all in the search-warrant application that would give rise to probable cause,” attorney Randol Schoenberg, who sued on Dec. 12 for the release, said in an e-mail after reviewing the documents. A judge is required to find probable cause that a crime may have been committed before issuing a warrant.

“I am appalled,” he added.

We assume Schoenberg simply missed the following two paragraphs which point out that FBI agents, without reviewing contents, happened upon “thousands of emails” sent to/from Huma Abedin using State Department email addresses around the same time they know that classified information was sent out over unclassified systems.

If that’s not enough, perhaps Mr. Schoenberg could comment on whether the following Reddit thread from Hillary’s IT guy “would give rise to probable cause” (see “Dear FBI, This Is Intent: Hillary’s “Oh Shit” Guy Sought Reddit Advice On How To ‘Strip VIP’s Emails’“).

Combetta started the thread on July 24, 2014 with the following question seeking technical advice on how to “strip out a VIP’s (VERY VIP) email address from a bunch of archived email[s].” “Ironically,” the day before the Reddit thread appeared, the Benghazi Committee reached an agreement with the State Department on the production of email and other records related to their investigation.

But sure, Mr. Schoenberg, we’ll take your word for it. No reason at all for alarm when “thousands of emails” from State Department addresses, which could contain sensitive, classified information, just happen to show up on the …read more

Source: FBI Warrant For Clinton Emails Released As Democrats Slam Decision: "I Am Appalled"

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By Tyler Durden

Expectations were for more inventory draws in total crude levels (and another build in Cushing), but API reported a considerably larger than expected 4.15mm draw in overall crude inventories. Both Gasoline and Distillates saw notable draws and Cushing built for the 4th week in a row (but less than expected). WTI crude kneejerked higher on the news…

API

• Crude -4.15mm (-2.5mm exp)
• Cushing +690k (+1.9mm exp)
• Gasoline -1.96mm
• Distillates -1.55mm

4th weekly build at Cushing but 5th weekly draw in overall crude inventories…

And the reaction was an immediate kneejerk higher…

…read more

Source: Oil Jumps After Bigger Than Expected Inventory Draw

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Source: Berlin Christmas market attack: ISIS claims responsibility

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By Tyler Durden

Paul Krugman wants you to know that, in his view, the markets are misinterpreting “Trumponomics” and because he is far smarter than you, the markets, and pretty much anyone else, it's important to pay attention.

Of course, this shouldn't be terribly surprising as Trump could literally announce that he found a cure for cancer and Krugman would immediately take to the New York Times to pen an op-ed defending malignancies, and how its eradication would mark the end of “hope” for mankind.

In any event, Krugman posted a short article to his twitter account this afternoon warning that the markets' interpretation of “Trumponomics” is all wrong. While the confused Keynsian would ordinarily praise aggressive infrastructure plans, like the one proposed by Trump, in this case he's willing to make an exception and notes that the plan looks more like a “privatization scheme” than an “actual plan to boost public investment.” And while Krugman has never before seen a budget deficit that he didn't criticize for being too small, Trump's “privatization scheme” combined with “tax cuts for the rich” suddenly has him extremely worried about federal debt balances.

Financial markets seem to have decided that the Siberian candidate will pursue strongly expansionary macroeconomic policy. Long-term interest rates have risen sharply; expected inflation is also up, although not as much.

But are the markets getting this right? I suspect not: fiscal policy probably won’t be expansionary as expected (or maybe at all), and Trump’s economic team is looking like a gathering of goldbugs, who will if anything push for deflation.

On the fiscal side, I’m still seeing people talking about a huge infrastructure push. But there’s no indication that Republicans in Congress are at all eager to get moving on this push; their priorities seem to be repealing Obamacare and tax cuts for the rich, perhaps especially the estate tax. And in any case what we know about that supposed infrastructure push is that it looks much more like a privatization scheme than an actual plan to boost public investment.

So what we’re really looking at is a combination of tax cuts and spending cuts. Overall, this will surely increase budget deficits. But the tax cuts will go to the wealthy, who won’t spend much of their windfall, while the spending cuts will fall on the poor and struggling workers, who will be forced into sharp cutbacks in spending. The overall effect on demand is therefore likely to be negative, not positive.

For proof of his view on “Trumponomics,” Krugman provided the following tweet storm, for your reading pleasure, highlighting the “gathering of gold bugs” known as Trump's cabinet. Apparently Mnuchin “hangs out” with John Paulson so he's guilty by association. Meanwhile, Mulvaney had the audacity to imply that the Fed's 0% interest rate policy might result in a weak USD. And Larry Kudlow, well everyone knows that he is under the perpetual illusion that we're still living in the 1970's.

Treasury goes to a guy with little …read more

Source: Krugman: "Trump’s Economic Team Is A Gathering Of Gold Bugs"

    

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By The_Real_Fly

Because the Fed believes we’re at or near full employment, any potential fiscal stimulus will serve to boost inflation more than growth, according to Goldman. As such, they believe both credit and FX markets have read this correctly, but stock investors, the village idiots, haven’t quite grasped what this could entail.

Goldman believes the Yellen Fed will explicitly work against Trump’s fiscal stimulus in order to keep the inflation boogeyman in check. This means Yellen might raise rates more than expected, switching from the Fed put to the Yellen call, limiting the upside of the stock market — which is inherently an easing factor in monetary policy.

Source: Bloomberg

The stunning run in equities “post-Trump appears to have looked past the fact that the economy is already running close to full employment,” write analysts Charles Himmelberg and James Weldon.

This implies that any new tailwind for U.S. activity — say, from a massive fiscal stimulus — would end up boosting inflation more than growth as it would force the economy to rub up against its supply-side constraints. Economic output can only grow as much as the labor and capital available to produce it — and an aging U.S. population places a demographic damper on available man-hours of work.

“So far, the [currency] and bond markets appear to have the firmer grip on this reality,” write the Goldman pair.

The main market impacts of fiscal stimulus will be higher inflation and real interest rates, which are positive for the U.S. dollar but not necessarily so for risk assets, they argue.

This argument is further reinforced by Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen’s apparent hawkish lurch in her press conference last week, in which she said the labor market was “in the vicinity of full employment” and threw cold water on the idea that she wants to see the economy run hot.

For the supply side, Trump’s policies are a mixed bag, per Goldman: capping immigration reduces potential growth, while deregulation and tax reform that helps spur investment could increase the U.S. economy’s top speed. The Fed, in other words, might be ready to tighten policy to serve as a monetary offset to any fiscal expansion.

For equity markets, the potential for a swifter pace of rate hikes from the central bank in the face of meaningful fiscal expansion constitutes a “contingent knock-in” trigger for the “Yellen call,” or Goldman’s theory that rallies in stock prices would elicit more tightening from the Fed Chair that would limit further upside.

“Contingent on fiscal stimulus, the FOMC will now need to respond even more aggressively to any easing of financial conditions,” conclude Himmelberg and Weldon. “The available evidence suggests to us that the long-run potential growth rates of the U.S. and global economies are still in a ‘low growth’ regime, suggesting that the equity market party will be at risk when the punchbowl goes out.”

Bear in mind, the clowns at Goldman are …read more

Source: Goldman: The Yellen Fed Will Offset Trump’s Fiscal Stimulus, Threatening Stock Market Rally

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Source: Berlin Christmas market attacker may still be at large

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Source: Russian ‘methbot’ fraud steals $180M in online ads

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Walmart trims its Christmas Eve hours, closing two hours earlier than last year. …read more

Source: Walmart trims its Christmas Eve hours

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The Grinch stole Christmas this year for thousands of Americans who were given pink slips before the holidays. …read more

Source: Merry Christmas: You’re fired!

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Source: Questions over Softbank’s $50B pledge to Trump

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