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By Tyler Durden

While the US has been bombarded by the artificial, mainstream media-fabricated concept of “fake news” for the past month, a strawman erected in an attempt to impose creeping limits on free speech and eliminate any outlet that does not comply with the government narrative and is accused of being “Russian propaganda”, China does not need to beat around the bush. Instead, it has shortcuts, like newspaper editors unexpectedly “falling” to their death.

Case in point: Liu Jiandong, the general manager the 21st Century Business Herald, a major Chinese newspaper group that has been in trouble with the government for alleged blackmail and corruption, mysteriously “fell to his death on Monday”, the newspaper said.

The 21st Century Business Herald carried a short statement on its official microblog from publisher 21st Century Media Ltd saying 21st Century Media’s general manager, Liu Jiandong, had fallen from a building and died despite efforts to save him. As Reuters adds, Liu took up his job in January 2015, which he was dedicated to, and was “upright and honest”, the paper said, adding an investigation was going on.

In a “suicide” that was a carbon copy of the death of Monte Paschi’s David Rossi, the police in the southern city of Guangzhou, where the newspaper is based, said it had responded to a call about a man “falling from an office building.” Police only identified him by his family name, Liu, and said he was a company general manager.

They added that “at the moment” there was no suspicion of murder. They will certainly have no suspicion of murder if their investigation reveals that the Chinese government itself is involved in the “suicide.”

Why was the newspaper on China’s black list? As the WSJ reported last April, China shut the website of a prominent business news daily it had investigated on allegations of extortion, and said other outlets should expect close scrutiny as it presses a campaign to clean up the media.

The media regulator ordered the popular website of the 21st Century Business Herald to cease operations Thursday, the government’s news agency, Xinhua, said. The newspaper was also ordered to strengthen its editorial management, Xinhua said. It cited previously publicized allegations that the website engaged in extortion. By 5 p.m., the site had already been taken down, with viewers directed to a “network error” page.

The newspaper was founded in 2001, just before China’s growth rates began to hit blistering double digits. Published by the Southern Media Group, it became one of the country’s best-respected business papers and built a print readership of about 750,000.

While some allege the Chinese crackdown on the paper was due to its critical reporting of corruption inside the government, Beijing flipped the tables, as investigators allegd it was the website itself that practiced extortion.

After the investigation into the 21st Century Business Herald became public, its top editors were shown on state broadcaster China Central Television in September making apparent confessions, wearing what looked like orange prison garb. Xinhua said …read more

Source: Chinese Newspaper General Manager Mysteriously Falls To His Death

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By Tyler Durden

Submitted by Michael Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

I have been warning about the increasing likelihood of a serious global trade war for quite some time.

That warning is now my baseline scenario. Unless there is an immediate deescalation of rhetoric and a return to rational thinking, a very destructive global trade war is baked in the cake.

I seek ways that a global trade war does not start, but I come up short.

China is upset because the EU and US Rejected China’s Market Economy Status over alleged steel dumping. In response, Beijing fired counterattack charges at the WTO.

China has launched a legal challenge against the EU and US over their reluctance to treat it as a “market economy” under World Trade Organisation rules.

Beijing is unhappy with a provision that allows trading partners to use a special formula and prices in third countries to calculate punitive tariffs for non-market economies in anti-dumping cases. It is pushing for the provision to expire with Sunday’s 15th anniversary of its WTO membership.

But the EU, US, Japan and other WTO members have resisted the move, prompting China on Monday to take the first step in launching a case with the global trade regulator.

In a statement, China’s commerce ministry said it had requested consultations with both the EU and US and would seek to have a WTO panel rule.

“China has communicated through many channels for the third-country comparison to expire. What’s very regrettable is that EU and US have not acted to allow it to expire. It has had a severe impact on Chinese exports,” it said. “China is protecting its lawful rights and acting appropriately to maintain the WTO rules.”

In the EU, fears of an onslaught of cheap Chinese goods prompted the European Commission to recommend a fundamental shift in how it conducts anti-dumping cases. Under EU rules, Brussels imposed a 21 per cent tariff on the same steel products that were hit with a 266 per cent US tariff in 2015.

In a sign of the commercial stakes, the US on Friday imposed punitive anti-dumping tariffs on Chinese-made washing machines, imports of which into the US were worth more than $1.1bn last year. It also announced the launch of an anti-dumping investigation into plywood imports from China, which were also worth more than $1bn last year.

Those US cases and the fight over Beijing’s market economy status point to the trade battles already being fought with China even as Donald Trump, the incoming president, promises to get tough with Beijing over trade and other issues.

“One of the most important relations we must improve . . . is our relationship with China,” Mr Trump said last week. “China is responsible for almost half of America’s trade deficit [and] they haven’t played by the rules.”

“They have acted like a non-market economy in so many respects with their state-owned companies, with subsidies, with dumping . . . there are more dumping cases brought against China than against all the other countries combined,” said Sandy Levin, the top Democrat …read more

Source: Global Trade War Baked In The Cake: Boeing Faces China’s Wrath

    

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Apple AirPods are finally available to buy online as of Tuesday morning after a rare delay pushed back the launch by about two months. …read more

Source: Apple’s AirPods finally go on sale

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By Tyler Durden

Just hours before the November 30 Vienna OPEC meeting, whose outcome sent the price of oil soaring, Gartman had a recommendation: “we are short of crude oil from yesterday; we’ll have stops on those positions on a closing basis this afternoon here in the States, with the intention of adding to those short positions once the OPEC meeting is behind us.”

Oops: following the same day’s 6% surge in oil, on December 1, Gartman had no other choice but to say that “clearly we were wrong/early/ill-advised in being short of crude one day before the official OPEC meeting but clearly too we remain suspicious of the cartel’s ability to keep its members aligned. Clearly we shall err bearishly of crude, but not for the moment, but perhaps later this month… perhaps.”

Or not. Because less than two weeks after warning he would “err bearishly on crude later this month”, Gartman has decided to throw in the towel, and arr bullishly on crude instead, to wit:

… although there seems to be no discernible shift in the term structures in the nearby futures as evidenced by the price matrices just below, there has been a material shift in the longer-term term structures as the contangos have indeed narrowed very sharply since yesterday. The averaged one year front month contango for Feb ’17/”Red” Feb ’18 has narrowed from $2.63 yesterday to $1.88 this morning. Further, it has narrowed from $2.64 one week ago, and perhaps most importantly it has narrowed from $5.08 one month ago! The tectonic plates have been and are continuing to shift beneath the “feet” of the crude oil market.

Perhaps most notably, the May ‘17/May ‘18 contango has disappeared entirely and is now in backwardation as “informed money” seems now to be betting that the OPEC/non-OPEC agreements on production cuts may actually succeed.

Finally then, recalling Lord Keynes’ admonition that when the facts changed regarding markets that he had been involved in he changed his opinion, we see the facts of the shifting term structure

changing the composition of the crude oil market materially. Note then that Brent… and for that matter too, so also WTI… “gapped” higher yesterday and that that gap remains open as we write this morning. Barring material reasons not to do so, when markets “gap” higher we buy them and we shall buy crude oil this morning as a result.

The result, is a new “trade recommendation” for “clients” as follows:

NEW RECOMMENDATION: We know that this shall catch many off-guard given our marked propensity to have erred always bearishly of crude, but with the term structure shifting as bullishly as it has and with the markets for WTI and Brent having “gapped’ higher yesterday, and with those “gaps” still intact, we’ve no choice but to buy crude oil this morning upon receipt of this commentary.

We shall not wish to risk much on this trade; the bottom of the gaps in front month WTI and Brent shall suffice; that is, …read more

Source: Gartman Flip-Flops: Says "Buy Oil" After Predicting "Oil Not Going Above $55 For Years"

    

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By Tyler Durden

Update: It's official, moments ago President-elect Trump confirmed he will nominate ExxonMobil CEO Rex Tillerson to be his secretary of state

* * *

After days of speculation and strawmen, and following Mitt Romney's statement earlier, AP is reporting that President-elect Donald Trump has selected Exxon Mobil CEO Rex Tillerson to lead the State Department, according to two people close to Trump's transition team.

The decision caps a lengthy process that often played out In public and exposed rifts within Trump's transition team. But Tillerson's close ties to Russia could still complicate his Senate confirmation hearings.

Trump was set to formally announce Tillerson's nomination Tuesday morning. The people close to Trump's transition insisted on anonymity because they were not authorized to disclose the pick ahead of that announcement.

If approved, Tillerson would be the first secretary of state in modern history without previous government experience, The Washington Post reported.

As KCTV5 reports, he is being called a controversial pick, partly because of his ties with Russian leader Vladimir Putin. Putin gave the CEO a Russian government award three years ago after Exxon-Mobil cut a major oil deal with a Russian company.

Russia has recently been accused of hacking in an effort to influence the result of the presidential election in Trump's favor. President Barack Obama ordered an investigation Friday into Russian influence on the election.

Trump dismissed concerns about Russia in an interview with Chris Wallace on Fox News Sunday, deeming the matter “ridiculous.”

The president-elect also used the interview to praise Tillerson for his business acumen and noted the CEO would be useful in matters regarding Russia because he “knows many of the players and he knows them well.”

He tweeted Sunday about reports that Tillerson would be getting the nomination, calling the CEO “a world class player and dealmaker.”

Trump tweeted this evening that his announcement will be tomorrow morning…

I will be making my announcement on the next Secretary of State tomorrow morning.

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) December 13, 2016

As we noted previously, the 64-year-old Texas oilman, whose friends describe as a staunch conservative, emerged as a Secretary of State contender only last week following a meeting with Trump, when it was speculated that he would consider the offer “due to his sense of patriotic duty and because he is set to retire from the company next year.” Tillerson's appointment would introduce the potential for sticky conflicts of interest because of his financial stake in Exxon: he owns Exxon shares worth $151 million, according to recent securities filings.

A quick biographical sketch of Tillerson courtesy of the WSJ:

The son of a local Boy Scouts administrator, Tillerson was born in Wichita Falls, Texas. He attended the University of Texas, where he studied civil engineering, was a drummer in the Longhorn band and participated in a community service-oriented fraternity.

He joined Exxon in 1975 and has spent his entire career at the company.

For most of his adult life, he has also been closely involved with the Boy Scouts of America, even occasionally …read more

Source: It’s Official: Trump Picks Exxon CEO Rex Tillerson To Lead The State Department

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Italy’s biggest bank plans to raise nearly $14 billion and slash thousands of jobs to shore up its finances. …read more

Source: Italy’s biggest bank to slash 14,000 jobs

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By Tyler Durden

Submitted by via InternationalMan.com,

In 1871, a large portion of the city of Chicago burned to the ground. The Chicago Tribune attributed the fire to a cow owned by a Mrs. O’Leary. The Tribune stated that the cow kicked over a lantern as she was being milked, burning the barn and much of Chicago.

Whether the story is accurate is of little concern. (Somebody always has to be found to take the blame for catastrophe.) Whatever started the barn fire in Mrs. O’Leary’s neighbourhood, a seemingly minor event resulted in a major conflagration.

And so it is with economic events. Bankers are expected to maintain a fractional reserve of 3–10%, depending on the level and type of liabilities, but, not surprisingly, they often drop below the official level, especially in times of economic difficulties. Bank managers assume that they can always increase the reserve when good times return. The trouble is they’re at their most exposed at a time when a substantial reserve is most critical.

But why would bankers take such a risk? Aren’t they fearful that they’ll get caught out if a crisis occurs?

Not really. Their assumption is very often that their indiscretion exists in isolation. They assume that if they alone cheat the system a bit, they can always catch up later. For whatever reason, it rarely occurs to them that, in a struggling economy, each of their associates in the industry is also cheating the system. Since each one keeps his activities under wraps, it doesn’t become apparent that the whole system is a house of cards until a black swan jolts the system, which, due to its overall instability, self-destructs.

Similarly, in shaky economic times, there’s quite a bit of fiddling that’s done in the stock market. As the public begins to lose their confidence in the system, they offers their shares for sale. In order to cover up the loss of confidence, these shares may be bought up by central banks, governments, and/or the corporations themselves – buying back their own shares.

Of course, this is risky, as crashes are caused by loss of confidence. Papering over that loss of confidence by papering over the cause of the problem only means that when the crash comes, it will be worse than if it had been allowed to collapse earlier.

Pensions tend to be heavily invested in the markets, which tends to put them at risk as well. The foremost mutual fund in the US is invested in 507 companies – commodities, energy, financials, industrials, IT, etc. To be sure, these will not suffer equally in a crash, but all will be affected – some severely.

If an investor gets skittish about being tied so heavily to banks and the stock market, he might decide to buy some precious metals, as he’s hearing it bandied about that precious metals provide a hedge against stocks. But, knowing little about metals, he’s likely to be “prudent” and call his broker rather than visit the coin shop to buy some physical gold. Most likely, his …read more

Source: "The Odds Of A ‘Spark’ Setting Off A Global Economic Conflagration Are Very High"

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By Tyler Durden

Bubbly home prices in London’s most exclusive neighborhoods continue to deflate and have just recorded their largest December decline since the “great recession” in 2010. According to Bloomberg, asking prices in London dropped 4.3% in December with inner London down 6%. Meanwhile, the most exclusive neighborhoods, like Kensinton and Chelsea, have recorded even sharper declines at nearly 10% as home buyers have migrated to cheaper areas of the city.

“Alongside the seasonal slowdown, the readjustment of prices to match buyers’ greater reticence continues, especially in more expensive inner London,” said Rightmove Director Miles Shipside. “Buyers are being put off the really big-ticket purchases.”

In a sign of the disparity within the city, average prices in inner London are down 2.6 percent over the past year, whereas outer areas are up 2.7 percent. That left average prices across the capital little changed. The split partly reflects the luxury end of the market, where an April tax increase on property investors and worries about Brexit are sapping demand.

While overall home prices looked to be flat YoY…

….central London prices have come under significant pressure as home buyers are migrating to cheaper areas.

Of course, none of this should be terribly surprising to our readers as we recently analyzed home listings in Kensington and Chelsea, where we found something stunning: out of 130 pages of adverts, with 15 ads per page, nearly half of all properties, or 53 of the pages showed price reductions.

Page 1

… through Page 53

And it will only get much worse: there are 23 pages worth of property that has been on the market for more than a year.

The liquidation sales are coming.

…read more

Source: Central London Home Prices Tumble; Biggest December Decline In Six Years

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By Tyler Durden

Submitted by Valentin Katasonov via Strategic-Culture.org,

The financial crisis of 2007-2009 effectively terminated the process of globalization. In 2015 world trade suddenly dropped by more than 10% for the first time since 2009. Nothing like this has been seen since the Great Depression of the 1930s. But some politicians, public figures, scholars, and journalists continue to talk about globalization as an “objective? and “progressive? process, even though it has already ended.

The world has embarked on a new era. One important hallmark of this era is the strengthening of protectionism in international trade and investment, the splintering of the global market into trade and economic zones, and even the move to regulating trade on a bilateral basis. According to the WTO, just in the period between October 2015 and May 2016 the G20 countries adopted 145 laws aimed at strengthening trade barriers, and over 1,500 such laws have been adopted since 2008. In total, according to estimates by the renowned British economist Simon Evenett, there are close to 4,000 protectionist laws and regulations on the books around the world. And the countries of the G20 – where over 90% of global trade originates – are responsible for 80 % of those trade barriers.

Donald Trump jumped nimbly onto this bandwagon with campaign slogans promising to revitalize America’s weakened position in world trade – mostly by relying on protectionist measures:

First – he would halt the negotiations to draft the Transatlantic Partnership Agreement between the US and the EU and refuse to ratify the already-signed Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement.

Second, he would either find a way out of NAFTA or would completely revise the terms of that treaty with the other parties (Canada and particularly Mexico).

Third, he would use bilateral agreements to frame American trade and economic relations with the rest of the world, while simultaneously moving away from a policy of multilateral or even global regulation of world trade (to the extent that the US is ready to refuse to take part in the work of the WTO).

Fourth, he would completely revise the terms of America’s trade and economic relations with China: increasing the typical level of import duties on Chinese goods to an average of 45% and adopting protectionist measures in connection with what is known as Beijing’s currency war (the artificially weak yuan compared to the US dollar).

Obviously the dogged and headlong pursuit of such a consistently protectionist program could not only strain relations with many of Washington’s trading partners, but could even trigger a trade war. In June the US president-elect thus described American-Chinese economic relations, “We already have a trade war and we’re losing badly?. By the spring of 2017 we are likely to hear of his first practical steps to restructure or “adjust? Washington’s international trade policy.

Trump’s protectionist mantras are already being echoed around the world. America’s trading partners are considering retaliatory measures. These are primarily the countries with which the US has the largest trade deficits. In 2015 America’s biggest trade imbalances were with the following …read more

Source: Only One Step Away From A Global Trade War

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President-elect Donald Trump had said he would hold a news conference on Thursday to announce his plans to uncouple himself from his businesses. …read more

Source: Trump postpones news conference until January

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