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Oscar Health, the $2.7 billion dollar startup cofounded by Joshua Kushner, opened its first doctor’s office in downtown Brooklyn. …read more

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By Tyler Durden

Having taken a jaunt with all the other recently converted bulls over the past month – ever since Trump’s presidential victory, which nobody anticipated and all the experts predicted would be bearish for stocks – JPM’s quant wizard, Marko Kolanovic has released an “add on” to his wildly bullish “Outlook for Equities” piece from last week, in which he makes a gracious return to the dark(ish) side, warning that “further withdrawal of monetary accommodation would likely lead to turmoil in financial markets” although, he adds, higher oil prices and lack of investor focus on China/CNY mean risks are lower than last January.

He notes that the initial market reaction to the election, with positive equities and the idea of reflation, have been accepted as base-case, however he then warns that this will revert similar to the first quarter of this year, and we will see a pullback in USD, and outperformance of EM assets, commodities, and value equities.

Kolanovic also says the “risk on” nature of the market reaction (bonds down, equities up) prevented a more rapid deleveraging among quant-driven funds going into the U.S. election, however should bond yields continue increasing, with 10Y beyond 2.75%, this will risk an equity selloff that usually triggers a broader deleveraging of var-based strategies. As a reminder, 2.75% on the 10Y is also the threshold which Goldman said last week would result in a stocks selloff.

“Absent another leg of the market rally, this overhang will weaken and at some point reverse, leading to an increase in realized volatility levels” Kolanovic notes.

Next, when looking at his bread and butter, volatility, Kolanovic says the VIX appears to be 3 points too cheap (1 standard deviation) relative to dozens of different macroeconomic variables, however instead of buying the bottom in VIX, Kolanovic is a seller of bounces and repeats his call that VIX in 2017 will likely trade in a similar range to 2016. To wit:

Periods of low volatility are likely to mask underlying fundamental risks and be followed by quick outbursts of volatility that may not last long enough (due to unwinding of hedges, opportunistic selling of volatility) to be captured by an average investor. Hedgers may buy volatility ahead of an event and sell shortly before the catalyst to capture volatility grinding higher. To gauge market risks, equity investors should watch for further increases in bond yields and strengthening of USD.

Still, he does warn that “an upside risk to our base case volatility view is if the US were to enter a recession (to which our Economists assign only a ~25% chance over the next 12M), and a downside risk for volatility would be a quick and effective US fiscal stimulus alongside continued monetary accommodation that causes a rally in risky asset classes.”

When looking at sector and factor dispersion, the JPM quant believes low volatility stocks and segments of tech and discretionary (large cap Internet) may continue to be under pressure due to rotations.

Furthermore, confirming something we have been saying since 2009, Kolanovic …read more

Source: JPM’s Quant Wizard Returns To The Dark Side, Warns Of Coming "Market Turmoil"

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By Tyler Durden

Submitted by Michael Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

Liberals in the city of Portland Oregon have put their foot down against income inequality.

The “Orecrats” are not going after CEOs, but rather corporations that have CEO salaries the “Orecrats” deem excessive.

The tax penalty on corporations is as much as 25%.

Please consider Portland Adopts Surcharge on C.E.O. Pay in Move vs. Income Inequality.

Moving to address income inequality on a local level, the City Council in Portland, Ore., voted on Wednesday to impose a surtax on companies whose chief executives earn more than 100 times the median pay of their rank-and-file workers.

The surcharge, which Portland officials said is the first in the nation linked to chief executives’ pay, would be added to the city’s business tax for those companies that exceed the pay threshold. Currently, roughly 550 companies that generate significant income on sales in Portland pay the business tax.

Under the new rule, companies must pay an additional 10 percent in taxes if their chief executives receive compensation greater than 100 times the median pay of all their employees. Companies with pay ratios greater than 250 times the median will face a 25 percent surcharge.

The tax will take effect next year, after the Securities and Exchange Commission begins to require public companies to calculate and disclose how their chief executives’ compensation compares with their workers’ median pay. The S.E.C. rule was required under the Dodd-Frank legislation enacted in 2010.

Thomas Piketty, a professor at the Paris School of Economics and an authority on income inequality who wrote “Capital in the Twenty-First Century,” said he favored the Portland tax as a first step.

“This is certainly part of the solution,” Mr. Piketty wrote in an email, “but the tax surcharge needs to be large enough; the threshold ‘100 times’ should be substantially lowered.”

Another supporter of the tax is Charlie Hales, the mayor of Portland.

“Income inequality is real, it is a national problem and the federal government isn’t doing anything about it,” Mr. Hales, a Democrat, said in a telephone interview. “We have a habit of trying things in Portland; maybe they’re not perfect at the first iteration. But local action replicated around the country can start to make a difference.”

Mr. Hales, who did not seek re-election, will leave office at the end of the month.

Attacking Symptoms

Portland attacks the symptom of the problem, not the problem. The Portland legislation may even enhance the problem.

If possible, CEO’s will take stock options and bonuses to escape the rule. If this idea catches on (and most economically foolish ideas promoted by the Left do catch on) corporations will reduce hiring and expansion plans.

Economic illiterate of the day, Thomas Piketty, says “the threshold ‘100 times’ should be substantially lowered.”

It would behoove Piketty to think about what the real problem is, instead of attacking symptoms of the problem.

The problem is not CEO pay. The problem is a Fed hell-bent on promoting inflation in a deflationary world. Combine that with financial repression tactics of central …read more

Source: Portland "Orecrats" Target Income Inequality: Pass Massive 25% Tax On Corps With "Excessive CEO Pay"

    

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