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By Tyler Durden

Back in August we noted that the Vancouver housing market was doomed after the implementation of a 15% property tax on foreign buyers targeting the massive influx of Chinese money driving real estate prices to astronomical levels. Sure enough, within a matter of weeks home prices had plunged and so had the volume of residential real estate transactions (see “As The Vancouver Housing Market Implodes, The “Smart Money” Is Rushing To Get Out Now“).

Three weeks after we suggested that the Vancouver housing bubble had popped in the aftermath of the implementation of the July 25 15% property tax in British Columbia targeting the Chinese free for all in Vancouver real estate, we got confirmation of that last week when we reported that only one word could describe what has happened to Vancouver housing in the past month: implosion.

Zolo, a Canadian real estate brokerage, which keeps track of MLS home sales in real-time and reports prices as an average rather than the “benchmark price”, showed as of last week a major correction underway in most Metro Vancouver markets. According to the website, the City of Vancouver currently has an average home price of $1.1 million, down 20.7% over the last 28 days and down 24.5% over the last three months. The average detached home is $2.6 million, down 7% compared to three months ago.

The number of transactions has likewise slammed shut: while August is typically one of the slowest months for real estate transactions, MLS sales data from the first two weeks of the month shows what many have been hoping for during the last few years of escalating prices. According to MLS listing data, there were only three home sales in West Vancouver between Aug. 1 and 14 this year, compared to 52 during the same period last year. That’s a decrease of 94%.

But, of course, all that laundered Chinese money has to go somewhere…and preferably somewhere without a 15% penalty tax on foreign buyers. So, at just a hop, skip and a jump across the border, wealthy Chinese citizens looking to move hot cash offshore have set their sites on Seattle. According to Bloomberg, within days of the implementation of the new Vancouver tax, real estate brokers in Seattle saw a noticeable increase in inquiries from Chinese buyers.

Just a few days after Vancouver announced a tax on foreign property investors, Seattle real estate broker Lili Shang received a WeChat message from a wealthy Chinese businessman who wanted to sell a home in Canada and buy in her area.

After a week of showings, he purchased a $1 million property in Bellevue, across Lake Washington from Seattle. He soon returned to buy two more, including a $2.2 million house in Clyde Hill paid for with a single cashier’s check.

Shang says she’s been inundated with similar requests from China and Hong Kong after Vancouver’s provincial government enacted a 15 percent tax on foreign homebuyers in August to help cool …read more

Source: Chinese Driven Vancouver Housing Bubble Moves To Seattle – "This Is Vancouver 2.0"

    

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By Tyler Durden

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson and Alex Jones, originally posted at InfoWars.com,

Isn’t it ironic how the mainstream media has the nerve to lecture everyone else about “fake news” when they are the primary source of fake news on a consistent basis stretching back years?

Fake news stories and fake narratives put out by the mainstream media have resulted in deaths, destruction and people’s lives being ruined.

The most harmful fake news is routinely published by the mainstream media. They are the main progenitors of fake news.

– The fake news that Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction and that Iraq was involved in 9/11, dutifully regurgitated without question by the mainstream media, resulted in hundreds of thousands of dead Iraqis, thousands of dead and injured U.S. troops, and the destabilization of an entire continent.

– The fake news that the rebels in Syria were “moderates” who did not have jihadist sympathies and should be supported led to the destruction of Syria, Libya and the rise of ISIS.

– The fake news narrative that the media was balanced in its coverage of the presidential election was completely obliterated when Wikileaks emails revealed that countless mainstream media reporters were in bed with the Clinton campaign, feeding them debate questions beforehand and conspiring with Hillary’s staff to portray her in a positive light.

– The fake news that George Zimmerman was obsessed with Trayvon Martin’s race before the altercation that led to Martin’s death was accomplished by means of NBC deceptively editing an audio tape. This incident stoked racial tensions across the country and laid the groundwork for the violent ‘Black Lives Matter’ movement that was to follow.

– The fake news that produced the “hands up, don’t shoot” narrative, which was proven to be completely fraudulent, led to riots, violent attacks and looting in Ferguson, Missouri, as well as numerous other U.S. cities. Even after the rioting began, the mainstream media continued to legitimize the unrest. Fake news outlets continued to parrot the “hands up, don’t shoot” narrative even after it was proven false.

– The fake news that saw innumerable people accused of rape at college campuses across America, claims that were proven wrong, ruined people’s lives and perpetuated the myth (fake news) that one in five women are raped on college campuses.

– The fake news that George W. Bush served dishonorably during his time in the Air National Guard was broadcast by CBS News with the aid of fake documents. In circulating this fake news, CBS tried to influence the 2004 presidential election but only ended up crucifying their own credibility, leading to Dan Rather’s resignation six months later.

– The fake news that NBC anchor Brian Williams faced enemy fire while helicoptering into Iraq in 2003 was exposed when soldiers who were aboard the helicopter blew the whistle on his lies. Despite admittedly putting out fake news, Williams still has a career in …read more

Source: The Ultimate "Fake News" List

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By Tyler Durden

In the most rececnt example why the “mainstream media” is facing a historic crisis of confidence among its readership, facing unprecedented blowback following Craig Timberg November 24 Washington Post story “Russian propaganda effort helped spread ‘fake news’ during election, experts say“, on Wednesday a lengthy editor’s note appeared on top of the original article in which the editor not only distances the WaPo from the “experts” quoted in the original article whose “work” served as the basis for the entire article (and which became the most read WaPo story the day it was published) but also admits the Post could not “vouch for the validity of PropOrNot’s finding regarding any individual media outlet”, in effect admitting the entire story may have been, drumroll “fake news” and conceding the Bezos publication may have engaged in libel by smearing numerous websites – Zero Hedge included – with patenly false and unsubstantiated allegations.

It was the closest the Washington Post would come to retracting the story, which has now been thoroughly discredited not only by outside commentators, but by its own editor.

The apended note in question:

Editor’s Note: The Washington Post on Nov. 24 published a story on the work of four sets of researchers who have examined what they say are Russian propaganda efforts to undermine American democracy and interests. One of them was PropOrNot, a group that insists on public anonymity, which issued a report identifying more than 200 websites that, in its view, wittingly or unwittingly published or echoed Russian propaganda. A number of those sites have objected to being included on PropOrNot’s list, and some of the sites, as well as others not on the list, have publicly challenged the group’s methodology and conclusions. The Post, which did not name any of the sites, does not itself vouch for the validity of PropOrNot’s findings regarding any individual media outlet, nor did the article purport to do so. Since publication of The Post’s story, PropOrNot has removed some sites from its list.

As The Washingtonian notes, the implicit concession follows intense and rising criticism of the article over the past two weeks. It was “rife with obviously reckless and unproven allegations,” Intercept reporters Glenn Greenwald and Ben Norton wrote, noting that PropOrNot, one of the groups whose research was cited in Timberg’s piece, “anonymous cowards.” One of the sites PropOrNot cited as Russian-influenced was the Drudge Report.

The piece’s description of some sharers of bogus news as “useful idiots” could “theoretically include anyone on any social-media platform who shares news based on a click-bait headline,” Mathew Ingram wrote for Fortune.

But the biggest issue was PropOrNot itself. As Adrian Chen wrote for the New Yorker, its methods were themselves suspect, hinting at counter-Russian propaganda – ostensibly with Ukrainian origins – and verification of its work was nearly impossible. Chen wrote “the prospect of legitimate dissenting voices being labelled fake news or Russian propaganda by mysterious groups of ex-government employees, with the help of a national newspaper, is even …read more

Source: Washington Post Apends "Russian Propaganda" Story, Admits It May Be Fake

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By Tyler Durden

Markets remain more fragile than today’s volatility levels suggest according to BofAML's global equity derivatives group.

This fragility has been driven by:

• Central bank dominance: Markets’ overdependence on central bank policy suppresses risk and reduces the breadth of factors driving asset returns. This starves the market for alpha, leads to excessive crowding (as more capital is chasing fewer opportunities), reduces investor conviction and increases the risk of tantrums. This reduced conviction has also contributed to investors running high cash levels and adopting the buy-the-dip strategy which has contributed to the record reversals in volatility as well.
• Failing liquidity: Due to both regulatory change impacting banks and increasing risk-aversion among high frequency market makers, liquidity has been drying up at record speed during times of stress.

While our Fragility Indicator, based on the number of cross-asset shocks recorded over a 6-month window, has been declining since early 2016, our short-term fragility indicator has recently spiked to the 95th percentile since 2000 following Trump’s US election win, and this event set a record in terms of the S&P jumping from extreme intra-day volatility to calm as investors rushed to buy the dip.

While we don’t expect this fragility affliction to reverse near-term, if higher inflation pushes rates higher and reduces the Fed’s ability to micro-manage the market, this would remove one of the key pillars of fragility.

And while it still only a possibility, if regulation which has helped cause trading liquidity to dry-up is reversed, it would only further alleviate today’s fragile condition. In other words, the more the “new normal” becomes more like the old normal, the less fragile markets should become.

The “old normal” equals more alpha for active managers

Active managers have recorded among their poorest performance recently in this era of high fragility.

Chart 12 shows that hedge funds have recorded very poor performance, exhibiting in 2016 their largest drawdown relative to the risk they are running in any period outside of 2008. Similarly, the lowest percentage of large cap US active equity managers has outperformed their benchmark this year since 2003 according to data from our equity strategists. This is despite one measure of active alpha potential, which historically has correlated well to active manager performance, rising steadily since 2013 (Chart 11).

This would suggest the reason active managers have underperformed is not due to a lack of potential market opportunity, rather due to the drivers of returns shifting away from traditional fundamental factors to things such as position crowding, CB intervention and momentum vs. mean reversion – all hallmarks of a fragile market.

Active opportunity rising but so is the risk

Since the US election, as the market has begun to rapidly differentiate between winners and losers from potential fiscal stimulus and inflation, sector dispersion relative to the level of market volatility has risen dramatically to the 96th percentile since 1990 (Chart 13).

While this represents significant opportunity for active managers to outperform, it also represents significant risks if the strong …read more

Source: Will 2017 See Peak Fragility?

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By Tyler Durden

Today’s epic melt up has left many traders, investors and market watchers speechless. But even prior to Wednesday’s explosive move higher, the market was already in nosebleed territory.

As Bank of America calculates, as of yesterday’s close, multiples expanded across most sectors and across all size segments in November. The S&P 500 forward P/E of 16.7x is back at September-end levels (10% above average), while the trailing P/E of 21.6x is at its highest levels since late 2009 (nearly 20% above average). Valuations for the index look elevated vs. history across most metrics (Table 2), though a still-elevated equity risk premium suggests stocks continue to look attractive vs. bonds. And large caps now look attractive vs. small caps, where the Russell 2000’s forward P/E jumped to a 20-month high in November, its biggest one-month increase since 2009.

To allow readers to decide for themselves whether stocks are massively overvalued and overbought, or perhaps cheap, here is a breakdown of the S&P 500 across a wide variety of valuation measures — 20 in total — to gauge whether US stocks look cheap vs. history.

What the analysis shows is that of 20 metrics, the S&P is overvalued based on 17 of them by as much as 76% (on a historical market cap to GDP) basis, and is cheap only according to trailing normalized PE (18.5x vs 19.0x average), Price to Free Cash Flow (23.1x vs 28.4x) which however is a function of ultra low interest rates, and also based on a ratio of the S&P-to-Russell 2000 fwd PE multiples.

Ok fine, the market is cheap, and on the 20th anniversary of “Irrational exuberance” it is going for try #2. However, is every sector overpriced? Here, some opportunities emerge: Health Care is now the cheapest sector vs. history on all three relative multiples tracked by BofA (forward P/E, Price to Operating Cash Flow, and Price to Book), and all industries within Health Care are trading at a discount to history on both relative forward P/E and P/OCF— especially Biotech, which trades at a 30% discount to the market’s P/E vs. a 30% premium historically. After today’s Trump comment it is trading even cheaper. While Health Care’s multiple had collapsed to multi-year lows on election risks, the sector barely re-rated last month despite the removal of this uncertainty overhang. If multiples were to revert back to their L/T average, this would imply over 30% upside.

What is expensive: according to the three chosen valuation metrics, Consumer Discretionary, Energy, Materials and IT are the most overvalued, in some cases by as much as 47%.

So what does this mean in terms of recommendations from BofA? Well, the answer is, “its complicated.” During a press event in NYC, BofA’s head of U.S. equity, quantitative strategy Savita Subramanian, said that her outlook is “bifurcated.” The truth, however, is that Savita is right – at this moment the market can go straight up, or it could crash, both with equal probability, based on what happens to Trump’s proposed policies. As she …read more

Source: Just How Overvalued Is The Market? Here Are 20 Metrics To Help You Decide

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By Tyler Durden

The U.S. Council on Competitiveness asked Gallup to conduct, pro bono, a comprehensive study of U.S. growth and productivity for the Council's 30th anniversary.

Chairman Jim Clifton enthusiastically said yes, and describes his findings…

A Gallup senior economist led the study. Top Gallup experts and esteemed external senior scientists reviewed it to ensure statistical and theoretical accuracy and objectivity.

Conventional wisdom — as reported in many major newspapers and media — tells us the U.S. economy is “recovering.” Well-meaning economists, academics and government officials use the term “recovery” when discussing the economy, implying that growth is getting stronger.

The study, released today, finds there is no recovery. Since 2007, U.S. GDP per capita growth has been 1%.

The Great Recession may be over, but America is dangerously running on empty.

Think of our country as a company, America Inc., which has more than 100 million full-time employees, with about $18 trillion in sales and $20 trillion of debt. The most serious problem facing it is no growth. In addition, America Inc. has three soaring expenses threatening to bankrupt the company and its shareholder-citizens: healthcare, housing and education.

As this report notes, in 1980, these three sectors accounted for 25% of total national spending — today, they account for more than 36%. They also account for most of the total measured inflation over the same period. And without inflation in these sectors, real annual productivity — defined as GDP per capita growth — would have been an estimated 3.9% instead of 1.7%.

My own opinion is that America Inc. is too big to “turn around” like one would a company or any other organization. There is no quick fix to something this huge and complex. But there is a long-term fix, which is to get GDP increasing to 3% and higher while slowing the increasing costs of healthcare, housing and education.

When real growth returns, productivity will increase, and America Inc.'s empty tank will refill.

* * *

Full report below (please note that if you are unsatisfied with this study please report Gallup to The Washington Post for being a Russian puppet..)

…read more

Source: Gallup CEO Warns: "America Inc.’s Running On Empty…And It’s Too Big To Turn Around"

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Even though many feared a stock market crash, the surprise election of Donald Trump has helped carry the Dow more than 1,000 points higher since Election Day. …read more

Source: Dow zooms over 1,200 points since Trump victory

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Peter Thiel is starting to make his mark on Trump transition team. …read more

Source: Peter Thiel adds allies to Trump transition

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for latest details. …read more

Source: The cost of underemploying skilled immigrants

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By Tyler Durden

Having dropped out of the primary race almost exactly a year ago, prominent foreign policy hawk, Republic Senator Lindsey Graham told CNN during an interview today that he plans to launch two separate probes (from both of his subcommittees) into Russia’s “hacking” and demand that President-elect Trump “take a much tougher tone towards Russia… or they will break up our alliances.”

In intvw, GRAHAM announces plans for two new investigations into Russia hack, calls on Trump to toughen tone. Graham is the first Republican to call for an investigation into Russia after constant demands from the Democrats, and noted that he and John McCain support further sanctions on Putin.https://t.co/ZwnSKcxd5h

— Manu Raju (@mkraju) December 7, 2016

…read more

Source: Lindsey Graham Launches 2 Russian ‘Hacking’ Probes, Demands Trump "Toughen Tone"

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