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What’s Behind The Relentless Market Surge? RBC Explains

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By Tyler Durden

Confused by the relentless surge in stocks, which appear to have collectively decided to have no more down days as they ramp higher day after day as VIX crashes, and may soon see single digits? Here is one theory courtesy of RBC’s head of cross-asset strat, Charlie McElligott.

DATA AND TRUMP KICKING-UP ‘ANIMAL SPIRITS,’ AGAINST SIGNS OF Y.E. GROSS-DOWNS

The pause in the rates trajectory continues to be extraordinarily ‘tame,’ as many have been anticipating a sharper ‘counter-trend rally’ which has yet to occur. One thought here is the ongoing situation with Chinese outflows, with data overnight showing their FX reserves dropping the most in 10 months…as such we see the Yuan at 8 year lows against the Dollar. The rhetoric and twitter-barbs from Trump regarding the potential to paint China as a currency manipulator, along with the Taiwan phone-call faux paus, continue to agitate the situation.

It is certainly reasonable to believe that this source of UST selling will continue to keep USTS rallies ‘limp,’ and still in front of a very pro-growth / reflationary Trump policy mix to come: lower corporate and individual taxes, industry deregulation, trade policy (tariffs will drive up domestic prices as cheaper international goods competition is removed) and a fiscal policy shift away from monetary policy will all conspire to take rates higher in the year + window ahead.

COMMENTARY: I’ll keep this simple…we continue to see obvious re-risking in the form of “buy everything” price-action, as investors push further out onto the risk curve against a shift away from the 5+ year narrative of “secular stagnation” towards positioning that allows capture of “reflation animal spirits.”

Add-in the market ‘comfort’ of knowing that both the BoJ (Iwata reiterating that they can accelerate / expand purchases overnight) and the ECB (extension expectations tomorrow) will continue providing a QE-monetary policy “backstop” to keep the grind higher in rates from getting ‘disorderly’ in the medium-term. This is critical to avoiding ‘VaR shocks,’ as well as avoiding a drag to the broad economy through ‘financial tightening.’

More of the same “price is news” on reflation positioning-pivot—a look at market metrics:

–USD 5Y5Y inflation swaps making 2-year highs last week and holding
–UST 5Y Zero coupon inflation yields at 26-month highs last week and holding
–UST 30Y Breakeven yields at 26-month highs last week and holding
–WTI Crude 17-month highs this week and holding
–XLF/XLU ratio at 8-year highs
–Global Cyclicals to Defensives index ratio at 2-year highs
–IWM/TLT ratio at 3-year highs
–U.S. Growth / Value ETF ratio at 2.5-year lows

And to the macro data-points (note: much of this is expressed in the charts section below):

–G10 Economic Surprise Index at 3-year highs
–US Consumer Confidence printing at 9-year highs
–CEO Confidence Index 3rd highest print since July 2007
–Global Manufacturing PMI’s at 27-month highs
–Global Services PMI’s at 1-year highs
–49-month highs in G10 Inflation Surprise Index

As such, we are seeing ‘real money’ client portfolio rotation stay ‘front-footed’ on adding …read more

Source: What’s Behind The Relentless Market Surge? RBC Explains

    

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for latest details. …read more

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The billions behind Trump’s tech deal is from Saudi Arabia

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Much of the $50 billion Donald Trump said is headed to America is likely to come from Saudi Arabia. …read more

Source: The billions behind Trump’s tech deal is from Saudi Arabia

    

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Trump named Time Person of the Year

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Time magazine has named President-elect Donald Trump its Person of the Year, calling him “President of the Divided States of America.” …read more

Source: Trump named Time Person of the Year

    

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Donald Trump Is Time Magazine’s 2016 "Person Of The Year"

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By Tyler Durden

One year after narrowly losing to Angela Merkel (and tied with ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi), Donald Trump has finally won the 2016 Time “Person of the Year Award”, the person – or idea – who according to the magazine has most influenced the news and the world in the past year, for good or ill.

Trump beat out 10 other finalists, including his Democratic rival, Hillary Clinton. TIME declared Clinton their runner-up.

This will be Trump’s 10th time on the magazine’s cover, and all but one have been since August 2015. His first appearance on TIME was in 1989.

The magazine has made the designation every year since 1927, when aviator Charles Lindbergh was chosen as the first Man of the Year. The title was amended to Person of the Year in 1999. Over its history, TIME has bestowed the title to many presidents, political leaders and industry trailblazers who often view the designation as an honor. However, the magazine also has selected notorious recipients in the past, including Adolf Hitler in 1938, Joseph Stalin in 1939 and 1942, and Iran’s Ayatollah Khomeini in 1979, because of the impact they had on the world at the time.

As Time explains, “this is the 90th time we have named the person who had the greatest influence, for better or worse, on the events of the year. So which is it this year: Better or worse? The challenge for Donald Trump is how profoundly the country disagrees about the answer.” Trump’s response per an interview on the NBC “Today” show aired moments ago: “It’s a great honor, it means a lot.“

A brief video lays out the reasoning behind the choice:

Here is the full Time’s logic:

It’s hard to measure the scale of his disruption. This real estate baron and casino owner turned reality-TV star and provocateur—never a day spent in public office, never a debt owed to any interest besides his own—now surveys the smoking ruin of a vast political edifice that once housed parties, pundits, donors, pollsters, all those who did not see him coming or take him seriously. Out of this reckoning, Trump is poised to preside, for better or worse.

For those who believe this is all for the better, Trump’s victory represents a long-overdue rebuke to an entrenched and arrogant governing class; for those who see it as for the worse, the destruction extends to cherished norms of civility and discourse, a politics poisoned by vile streams of racism, sexism, nativism. To his believers, he delivers change—broad, deep, historic change, not modest measures doled out in Dixie cups; to his detractors, he inspires fear both for what he may do and what may be done in his name.

The revolution he stirred feels fully American, with its echoes of populists past, of Andrew Jackson and Huey Long and, at its most sinister, Joe McCarthy and Charles Coughlin. Trump’s assault on truth and logic, far from hurting him, made him stronger. His appeal—part hope, part snarl—dissolved …read more

Source: Donald Trump Is Time Magazine’s 2016 "Person Of The Year"

    

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JPMorgan, HSBC, Credit Agricole "Bank Cartel" Fined $521 Million For Euribor Rigging

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By Tyler Durden

With global bank stocks soaring on expectations – and hope – that financial sector regulation will be broadly swept away under Trump, today Europe did its best to show that, at least for now, the banks are not in the clear when the European Commission has fined JPMorgan, Credit Agricole and HSBC a total of €485 million ($521 million) for rigging the Euribor benchmark as European Union antitrust regulators wrapped up a five-year investigation into the scandal.

The three banks colluded on euro interest rate derivative pricing elements, and exchanged sensitive information, in breach of EU antitrust rules, the European Commission said on Wednesday in an e-mailed statement. JPMorgan was fined 337.2 million euros, HSBC got a 33.6 million-euro penalty and Credit Agricole must pay 114.7 million euros. Margrethe Vestager, the EU’s competition policy chief, said banks “have to respect EU competition rules just like any other company operating in the single market.”

Fine of €485 million to 3 banks – Credit Agricole, HSBC, JPMorgan Chase – for participating in cartel of euro interest rate derivatives.

— Margrethe Vestager (@vestager) December 7, 2016

“The aim of the cartel was to distort” Euribor, Ms Vestager said. The traders involved “tried to submit quotes to move the Euribor rate up or down”. The Commission found evidence in records from online messaging services of traders “congratulating each other on work well done,” she said adding that “The enforcement of competition rules brought to light widespread collusion between banks.”

The fines mark the final stage in what began as a far wider investigation into a cartel of banks that manipulated interest rate derivatives linked to the Euribor benchmark rate. Four other banks reached a settlement with the Commission concerning the same cartel back in 2013.

As Bloomberg reports, the EU’s investigation into Euribor manipulation was strained three years ago after Credit Agricole, JPMorgan and HSBC refused to join a multi-bank settlement with four other lenders including Deutsche Bank AG and Societe Generale SA. Since then, the holdouts have been a thorn in the commission’s side, successfully delaying the process and showing up the regulator for its handling of the case. The three lenders were handed a statement of objections in May 2014 accusing them of colluding to rig Euribor rates in the wake of a global scandal embroiling some of the world’s biggest banks. By refusing to settle the case with the commission they forfeited the chance of a 10 percent discount on any fines.

Slap on the wrist-sized fine notiwthstanding, the banks remained defiant. JPMorgan “did not engage in any wrongdoing with respect to the Euribor benchmark,” Jennifer Zuccarelli, a spokeswoman for the bank in London, said in the statement. “We will continue to vigorously defend our position against these allegations, including through possible appeals to the European courts.”

Credit Agricole in a statement said it “firmly believes that it did not infringe competition law” and that “it will appeal the commission’s decision.” The fine payment “will not affect the 2016 financial statements given the …read more

Source: JPMorgan, HSBC, Credit Agricole "Bank Cartel" Fined $521 Million For Euribor Rigging

    

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Trump supporters at risk from Obamacare repeal

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Some 80% of those who would lose their coverage if Obamacare were repealed don’t have college degrees and 56% are non-Hispanic whites, according to an Urban Institute study. …read more

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Who would lose cover under Obamacare repeal?

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Some 80% of those who would lose their coverage if Obamacare were repealed don’t have college degrees and 56% are non-Hispanic whites, according to an Urban Institute study. …read more

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China Newspapers Blast "Diplomatic Rookie" Trump For "Inability To Keep His Mouth Shut"

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By Tyler Durden

Trump

It seems that Trump’s phone call with Taiwan’s president Tsai Ing-wen as well a recent pair of tweets from the president-elect blasting China for devaluing their currency, taxing U.S. imports and military provocations in the South China Sea have served their purpose of ruffling some feathers in Beijing.

Did China ask us if it was OK to devalue their currency (making it hard for our companies to compete), heavily tax our products going into..

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) December 4, 2016

their country (the U.S. doesn’t tax them) or to build a massive military complex in the middle of the South China Sea? I don’t think so!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) December 4, 2016

While the “official reaction” out of Beijing to Trump’s “provocations and falsehoods” has been muted, newspapers across China, often viewed as a mouthpiece of the Communist Party, have spent the day lashing out at the “diplomatic rookie.”. Per Yahoo News, the People’s Daily accused Trump of “provoking friction and messing up China-US relations,” a move they say will not help “make America great again.”

Donald Trump is a “diplomatic rookie” who must learn not to cross Beijing on issues like trade and Taiwan, Chinese state media said Tuesday, warning America could pay dearly for his naivety.

Trump’s protocol-shattering call with Taiwan’s president and a subsequent Twitter tirade against Beijing’s policies could risk upending the delicate balance between the world’s two largest economies, major media outlets said.

“Provoking friction and messing up China-US relations won’t help ‘make America great again'”, said a front-page opinion piece in the overseas edition of Communist Party mouthpiece People’s Daily.

The Global Times blasted Trump’s “inability to keep his mouth shut” adding that Trump “doesn’t have sufficient resources” to be provocative with China.

The nationalist Global Times newspaper’s Chinese edition also ran a page-one story on Trump’s “inability to keep his mouth shut”, damning his “provocation and falsehoods”.

Noting that Sino-US relations had reached a delicate equilibrium thanks to years of careful management, an editorial in the paper warned that Trump “can make a lot of noise but that does not exempt him from the rules of the major power game,” adding that he “doesn’t have sufficient resources” to be provocative with China.

“Trump’s China-bashing tweet is just a cover for his real intent, which is to treat China as a fat lamb and cut a piece of meat off it,” it said.

“He is trying to pillage other countries for US prosperity,” it warned, but instead he will unwittingly “smash the current world economic order” of which the US is the “biggest beneficiary.”

A companion commentary warned that Trump “will in time learn not to cross China”, threatening “a fierce competition” with Beijing if the US increases arm sales to Taiwan.

Meanwhile, the China Daily noted that Beijing would likely remain somewhat muted in their response so long as Trump is “shooting from the hip” but warned that a failure to “moderate his behavior” after …read more

Source: China Newspapers Blast "Diplomatic Rookie" Trump For "Inability To Keep His Mouth Shut"

    

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Virginia Schools Ban ‘To Kill A Mockingbird,’ ‘Huck Finn’ Over Racial Slurs

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By Tyler Durden

A Virginia school has temporarily banned “The Adventures of Huckleberry Finn” by Mark Twain and “To Kill A Mockingbird” by Harper Lee,after a parent complained that her high school-age son was negatively impacted by racial slurs contained in the books.

As The Independent reports, both To Kill a Mockingbird and Mark Twain?'s Adventures of Huckleberry Finn were temporarily banned pending a committee review, with the parent – Marie Rothstein-Williams, the mother of a mixed race child – suggesting a board made up of other parents and teachers from diverse cultural backgrounds determines a list of books that are inclusive for all students.

“I keep hearing, ‘This is a classic, This is a classic’,” the mother said at a school board meeting on 15 November, according to WPXI. “I understand this is a literature classic. But at some point, I feel that children will not – or do not – truly get the classic part – the literature part, which I’m not disputing.

“This is great literature. But there [are so many] racial slurs in there and offensive wording that you can’t get past that.”

She claimed her son couldn’t get past a page of Adventures of Huckleberry Finn that includes the N-word seven times.

“So what are we teaching our children? We’re validating that these words are acceptable, and they are not acceptable by (any) means,” the parent said, perhaps overlooking the role of the teacher in instructing pupils what words are right and wrong to employ. “There is other literature they can use.”

The suspension of the books is a part of the standard procedure outlined in the district’s policy manual which says that after a formal complaint is filed, the principal, the library media specialist, complainant and teacher should gather to discuss the materials.

But as The LA Times reports, the suspension of the books didn't sit will with some residents of Accomack County, dozens of whom protested outside the county courthouse in the town of Accomac, reports Delmarva Now.

Charles Knitter, who helped organize the protest, read a chapter of “To Kill a Mockingbird” at the rally.

“We're not going to be censored, because banning literature is, well, stupid — I don't have another way to say that,” he said.

Sadye Saunders, a 16-year-old high school junior, agreed with Knitter, and noted that a petition she had started to have the books returned to schools was confiscated by her principal.

“This is important, because censorship blinds us,” Sadye said. “These books are important, because they are not condoning this word, this racial slur … They're showing the ignorance of using that word and having this bigotry.”

Huckleberry Finn” and “Mockingbird” aren't the only books to face challenges in schools recently. Some parents in the Chicago suburb of Lemont have criticized the local high school's use of Arundhati Roy's “The God of Small Things” and Maya Angelou's “I Know Why the Caged Bird Sings,” citing the books' sexual content, the Cook County Chronicle reports.

As The National Review's Katherine Timpf concludes, of …read more

Source: Virginia Schools Ban ‘To Kill A Mockingbird,’ ‘Huck Finn’ Over Racial Slurs

    

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