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By Tyler Durden

Emotions are running high in the US following a recent spate of violence at home and abroad. The gun debate, as exhausting as it has been, continues to rage on. Data shows us that the percent of total households who claim to have a gun has been declining, down to 36% in June from 53% back in January 1994.

At the same time, we have been witnessing YoY increases to the number of FBI background checks, aka NICS. Even though some polls show ownership rates are declining, it's not surprise to see gun sales increasing. As we have covered in prior posts, using the FBI background checks – or NICS as they are known – we can reasonably deduce the demand for weapons in the US (excusing the fact that the dataset is incomplete given that we cannot track private gun sales which account for a material amount of overall sales).

We have an increase of repeat buyers. And this cycle only grows as each violent event brings about increased government chatter of more regulation which then sparks fear in gun-owners and results in a spike in background checks and typically boosts sales.

This morning Bloomberg noted the surge in background checks following the Orlando nightclub shooting:

They also supplied an annotated chart of seasonally adjusted background checks:

The rub here lies within education and maintenance of self-defense awareness. In 2015 IBIS published a report on shooting ranges in the US. Oddly, the areas with a greater concentration of shooting ranges relative to the population concentration in that region there was a lower degree of gun-related violence.

The following image shows regional concentration in percent of the total population of Establishments (shooting ranges) and the US population.

The southeast has roughly 25% of the US population concentrated there but only about 22% of the total Establishment (shooting range) population in the US is located in that same region. New England, Plains, Rocky Mountains all have a greater concentration of the total Establishments (shooting ranges) relative to their overall concentration of the US population.

Compared that with the next chart from the LA Times, one wonders if proper gun-owner education is what we should all be discussing since the areas with a higher human population and lower relative shooting range population appear have a higher level of gun violence:

It is not as if the ranges lack use either. Shooting ranges bring in about $1.3 billion in revenue annually and there are about 2100 businesses operating. Those are locations where education should and often does take place. People are influenced by other responsible gun-owners and safety always comes first. These are the places on the corner of your neighborhood near the county thruway maybe or in the commercial district just minutes away from a neighborhood. Amid swelling gun interest and sales, we …read more

Source: As Gun Violence Drives Sales, Shooting Ranges May Aid Local Education Efforts

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By Tyler Durden

A lot has changed for 30-year-olds in the last 40 years… apart from median incomes…

In 1975, nearly 3 in 4 30-year-olds had married, had a child, had left school, and lived on their own. In 2015, just 1 in 3 30-year-olds have these characteristics.

And as Census.gov details, that's not all…

[Source: U.S. Census Bureau]

…read more

Source: Measuring America – 30-Year-Olds: Then & Now

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By Tyler Durden

There's been much fearmongering around Brexit and how it will impact the people of the UK specifically, and the broader global markets. What the people of the UK truly need, just like a hole in the head, is some friendly advice from Jamie Dimon.

Thankfully, everyone can relax, because Dimon has imparted his wisdom on the Brexit situation – with a bit of a carrot for listening to him as well, in true banker fashion.

“Brexit has put a lot of uncertainty in the markets and in the economy. The markets will calm down a bit.” Dimon said

Alas, as we reported earlier the Nasdaq erased all Brexit losses this morning – so far so good Jamie, so far so good.

Dimon's next comment, as reported by Bloomberg, is the key – Dimon was discussing the results of Brexit and specifically the use of the “passport rule” which currently enables companies with operations in the UK to sell their services to the other 27 nations in the bloc. If the UK can't win continued use of the passport rule, Dimon said he would be “forced” to consider shifting his 16,000 UK-based staff…

“If we have that passport after Brexit, we likely would not have to make any change at all. But I think the European Union will not accept that. It will put more conditions on the UK and might force banks to become smaller in London.”

However that wasn't the end, that was actually Dimon setting himself up for this amazing comment – suggesting that Brexit could actually be reversed, if the “right” people were involved in the decision making.

“Maybe you can even reverse Brexit. There are always solutions to the problems, as long you have the right people in the room.”

And there we have it – in Jamie Dimon's world, you just need to have the right people in the room to override the voters. It's that simple.

* * *

In summary, here is a quick translation of Dimon's comments: if the elites could just take control and ignore the will of the people everything would be resolved, and oh by the way, JPMorgan won't yank its staff of 16,000 out of the country.

…read more

Source: "Maybe You Can Reverse Brexit" – Jamie Dimon Chimes In On How To Ignore The Voters

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By Tyler Durden

While he may not be the infamous Kevin Henry, so well-known to Zero Hedge regulars, here is another Kevin, who is not a “trader/analyst” at the NY Fed but merely a lowly intern, and who today took over the Twitter feed of the NY Fed to show what a “day in the life of a NY Fed intern” looks like.

Let’s follow.

Hi! I’m Kevin, a 2016 summer associate. Follow my day as I take over the @NewYorkFed feed #NYFedInterns pic.twitter.com/jVkQiAuD5i

— New York Fed (@NewYorkFed) July 7, 2016

First up: emails, then prepping for a meeting with my manager #NYFedInterns pic.twitter.com/4cgY4E3shL

— New York Fed (@NewYorkFed) July 7, 2016

With my manager John, I get to work on financial analysis + strategy for the Corporate Group #NYFedInterns pic.twitter.com/qemPT0N09J

— New York Fed (@NewYorkFed) July 7, 2016

Grabbing a slice + catching up in the cafeteria #NYFedInterns pic.twitter.com/ROFGJpVWzQ

— New York Fed (@NewYorkFed) July 7, 2016

What better way to learn about the real estate division than with SVP Lola Judge #NYFedInterns pic.twitter.com/ndJA4N46GK

— New York Fed (@NewYorkFed) July 7, 2016

How to make procurement processes + contract approvals fun: my mentors #NYFedInterns pic.twitter.com/FYgujhE6Eb

— New York Fed (@NewYorkFed) July 7, 2016

Thanks Kevin for sharing your day with us. Learn about our summer programs: https://t.co/kA76QfHSWo | #NYFedInterns pic.twitter.com/5kZ7C7oxZP

— New York Fed (@NewYorkFed) July 7, 2016

Alas, not exciting at all, and certainly nowhere near the recent, first of its kind, video tour of the ECB’s trading desk.

We would be far more impressed if the NY Fed were to do a “day in the life” series of any or all of the following NY Fed Trader/Analysts, perhaps starting with an explanation of why the NY Fed needs “traders” in the first place, and what precisely is it that these individuals are actually trading?

We do know, however, that among the extensive list of skills exhibited by the above individuals are, but not limited to, painting the tape, the “market open” ramp, the “3:30pm pre-ramp” ramp, the “3:30pm ramp”, BTFD and BTFATH.

…read more

Source: A Photographic "Day In The Life" Of A New York Fed Intern

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By Tyler Durden

Excerpted from Dilbert creator Scott Adams' blog,

The primary goal of government is its own credibility.

…

Governments do many things, including building roads, providing social services, defending the homeland, and more. But no matter what the government is trying to accomplish, its macro-responsibility is to maintain its own credibility. Governments without credibility devolve into chaos. Credibility has to be job one.

…

This gets me to FBI Director James Comey’s decision to drop the case against Hillary Clinton for her e-mail security lapses. To the great puzzlement of everyone in America, and around the world, Comey announced two things:

1. Hillary Clinton is 100% guilty of crimes of negligence.

2. The FBI recommends dropping the case.

From a legal standpoint, that’s absurd.

…

But what was the alternative?

The alternative was the head of the FBI deciding for the the people of the United States who would be their next president. A criminal indictment against Clinton probably would have cost her the election.

How credible would a future President Trump be if he won the election by the FBI’s actions instead of the vote of the public? That would be the worst case scenario even if you are a Trump supporter. The public would never accept the result as credible.

…

Thanks to Comey, the American voting public will get to decide how much they care about Clinton’s e-mail situation. And that means whoever gets elected president will have enough credibility to govern effectively.

Comey might have saved the country. He sacrificed his reputation and his career to keep the nation’s government credible.

It was the right decision.

Comey is a hero.

…read more

Source: Dilbert Creator Calls FBI Director A Hero… Here’s Why

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By EconMatters

By EconMatters

The API set the expectations bar high for today`s EIA Report, and the Gasoline numbers came in well below the API numbers from last night. Gasoline is what shorts have been concentrating on in the year over year comps, up around 20 Million versus last year. The actual demand numbers are fine, it is just going to take some time to work off these gasoline inventories as the market goes through the rebalancing process.

Basically, a lot of Oil was pushed through the system in terms of refined product just to get it out of oil storage inventories, refining for the sake of refining, regardless of need. We have seen this play out in Asia and Europe as well, but the good news is that consumers are buying more gasoline, driving more, and economics is playing out as it should in the oil market. Thus the oil market will eventually rebalance, and at some point move into deficit supply/demand dynamics.

© EconMatters All Rights Reserved | Facebook | Twitter | YouTube | Email Digest | Kindle

…read more

Source: EIA Petroleum Report Analysis 7-7-2016 (Video)

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By Tyler Durden

So oil crashes to 2mo lows, DB hits record lows, and BMPS crashes…

Starting where we normally finish, the energy complex carnage this week has been a big factor with today's WTI crash the biggest in 5 months, weighing notably on stocks…

Plunging to 2 month lows… finding support at the intersection of its 100- and 200-dma…

And RBOB's 3-day crash is among its biggest ever… (on the heels of a very disappointing inventory print for the bulls)

With something snapping in Oil VIX land…

All about DOE today…

So apart from that… oh and a renewed collapse in European financials…

Everything is awesome-ish, stocks ended the day lower (after Nasdaq managed briefly to get back to green post-Brexit)…

On the day, S&P and Dow ended red with Trannies best – all bouncing after 15ET…

And once again VIX was monkey-hammered back to a 14 handle (well why not right – only payrolls tomorrow!!) to achieve S&P 2,100…all after NYMEX closed…BUT FAILED AGAIN!

Treasury yields were mixed with the short-end underperforming, leaving 2s30s 8bps flatter on the week…

But bonds and stocks remain massively divergent ahead of payrolls tomorrow…

The USD Index rose modestly on the day…

Commodities were all lower on the day, led by crude, but silver got clubbed early…

Silver was slammed early on today…

Charts: Bloomberg

…read more

Source: Late-Day VIX-Clubbing Saves Stocks From Gas-mageddon

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By Tyler Durden

Culminating with the tipping of the UK’s numerous real estate fund “dominoes” and the subsequent fallout in the wake Brexit, Fitch has been on a ratings-slashing spree, having cut the credit ratings on 14 nations so far in 2016, most recently that of the United Kingdom – a record downgrade pace for the rating agency. As the FT reports the majority of those 14 nations are concentrated in the Middle East and Africa: areas that have the most exposure to slumping commodity prices and declining nominal exports. Fitch also downgraded the UK citing falling oil prices, a stronger US dollar and Britain’s pending exit from the EU.

The decline in global sovereign ratings highlights the sensitivity to geopolitical shocks felt by the world economy as a result of sluggish growth and rising debts, Fitch notes.

Fitch’s competitor S&P has cut 16 sovereign ratings, a number only exceed once prior and that was during the EU turmoil in 2011. Moody’s registered 14 downgrades in 2016, up 4 from this same period last year.

“So far this year, S&P has downgraded 16 sovereigns — a half-year figure only exceeded once, at the height of the eurozone crisis in 2011. Moody’s has downgraded 24, compared with 10 at the same point last year.“

On Europe, Fitch had this to say: “Europe’s political backdrop could have negative implications for sovereign ratings . . . Comparatively high government debt levels are observed in several eurozone sovereigns, and are likely to remain effective rating constraints.”

Not even Saudi Arabia was safe. Fitch downgraded the kingdom on April 12, 2016 citing weakness in oil prices. The downgrade took place after oil had already rebounded roughly 40% from the February low. Fitch also stated their target for oil at the time of the downgrade was $35 for 2016 and $45 for 2017.

To be sure, timing of downgrades is not something the ratings agencies are known for.

Neither is competence. The role of credit rating agencies has been questioned in recent years — with some accusing them of biased ratings and irrelevance. However, their decisions remain crucial to investors subject to mandates that determine what sort of assets they can own. “I see parallels between the downgrades in peripheral Europe during the eurozone crisis and what is happening in emerging markets right now,” said Bhanu Baweja, emerging market strategist at UBS.”

Nonetheless the rates still provide a template of how other credit managers think, even if the warnings are largely and when it comes to purchasing decisions, completely ignored, drowned out instead by the actions of central banks. In today’s new normal, in the midst of low yields and high leverage, there is a major “crowding” effect as investors turn to those places which still provide some relatively higher yield, regardless of underlying fundamentals and if better yields are to be found in sovereigns with insurmountable debt, then that’s where “other people’s money” will head for. After all, the thinking goes, by the time the sovereign defaults, it will be someone else’s problem.

As <a target=_blank rel="nofollow" …read more

Source: Sovereign Credit Is Deteriorating At A Record Pace

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By Tyler Durden

In another reminder why most of the population is increasingly furious at the “elites”, over the holiday weekend a 31-year-old portfolio manager for Moore Capital, Brett Barna, threw a wild “Wolf of Wall Street”-style Hamptons party, complete with Champagne, scores of bikini-clad women and costumed gun-toting midgets, and in the process trashed a $20 million mansion.

According to Page Six, Barna, “a portfolio manager at Louis Bacon’s Moore Capital Management, hosted the all-day “#Sprayathon” pool party on Sunday, where 1,000 people doused themselves in bubbly as rapper Ace Hood performed.”

Making things more complicated is that Barna is not the owner of the 9-bedroom, 8 acre Hamptons mansion which “comes with tennis court, gym, outdoor pool & jacuzzi” where he celebrated US Independence Day in decadent style, and instead rented it from “Tommy” for $29,000 on AirBNB, a fee he is now disputing.

And now Tommy is angry: “the furious owner of the 14-bedroom estate in Bridgehampton plans to sue Barna, 31, for $1 million, saying the Wall Street hot shot had claimed the party would be a fundraiser for an animal charity for a mere 50 guests.”

The owner, who asked to not be named, told Page Six that , “Brett came to me dropping Louis Bacon’s name and saying he was a big deal with the Robin Hood Foundation. He said there would be 50 people at the event and it was for animal rescue. But the only animals there were the people, a thousand of them. They drowned themselves in Champagne, they had midgets they threw in the pool, they broke into the house, trashed the furniture, art was stolen, we found used condoms. So many people were there that the concrete around the pool crumbled and fell into the water. It was like ‘Jersey Shore’ meets a frat party. We are preparing a massive lawsuit . . . We’re waiting to serve him.”

“Brett was last seen on Sunday chugging Champagne with two midgets.”

Wild social media posts show partygoers dousing themselves in booze and dancing wildly.

The videos and photos below, capturing the festivities, will surely be Exhibit A-X in the upcoming lawsuit.

2016 #Sprayathon was wild ????

A video posted by sal_triolo (@sal_triolo) on Jul 4, 2016 at 2:46pm PDT

???? #sprayathon #4thofjuly #acehood @patduke

A video posted by M A Y A B. (@mbenayoun) on Jul 5, 2016 at 8:07am PDT

power #independenceday #4thofjuly #holiday #weekend #hamptons #sagharbor #pool #poolparty #power #kanyewest #kanye #yeezy #onepiece #swim #cutout #sprayathon #swimsuit: #marahoffman @marahoffman @bloomingdales #bloomingdales

A photo posted by Angela Hwang (@hwangela90) on Jul 3, 2016 at 2:53pm PDT

hamptons takeover #sprayathon #champagne #party #mansion #hamptons #july4 #independenceday #longisland #ny #summer #pool #poolparty #lounge #patriotic #getaway #mansion #bubbly #sundayfunday

A photo posted by Angela Hwang (@hwangela90) on Jul 3, 2016 at 1:59pm PDT

???? #sprayathon #4thofjuly #acehood @patduke

A video posted by M A Y A B. (@mbenayoun) on Jul 5, 2016 at 8:07am PDT

<a target=_blank rel="nofollow" …read more

Source: 31 Year Old Hedge Funder Trashes $20 Million Hamptons Mansion In Wild Midget-Tossing Party

    

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Posted July 7th, 2016 in Uncategorized.