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Archive for the ‘Uncategorized’ Category

"This Is The Capitulation Phase" – Why Treasury Yields Are About To Really Plunge

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By Tyler Durden

While mom and pop investors and BTFDers (if not so much hedge and mutual funds and other “smart money“) have been delighted by the latest V-shaped surge in stocks, it has come as we have repeatedly shown…

… at the expense of collapsing long-term yields as another central bank liquidity tsunami is priced in. In fact, early Friday both 10Y and 30Y US Treasury yields plunged to new all time lows, a signal which at any other time would suggest a deflationary tsunami is about to be unleashed, but in this case simply meant that another bout of central bank generosity was coming to prop up risky assets in the aftermath of Brexit.

The problem is that while stocks can – for now – ignore this historic divergence, which has pushed the S&P back to just shy of all time highs while bond yields are at all time lows, one major market participant can no longer pretend to not notice what is going on. We are talking about pension funds, who according to Bank of America are about to “throw in the towel” and capitulate on the de-risking of their portfolios, unleashing the next major buying spree on the long end, in the process likely pushing the 10Y to 1% or even much lower.

As BofA’s Shyam Rajan writes, bull flattening of yield curves is rarely good news to anyone – but defined benefit pension plans are most leveraged to this pain. According to the most recent Milliman estimate, the average funded ratio of the top 100 US corporate defined benefit pension plans already had dropped to 77% by end of April. Since then, 30y rates dropped another 50bp and corporate spreads have tightened. While the asset side has provided some relief given that equities are hanging on to the highs, we think it is safe to assume that funding ratios over the last month have now reached the lows seen in 2012 – a rather sobering thought given that the equity rally of 70% since then has meant nothing and has been subsumed by the rate decline. The dominant factor of pension funding gaps has been the move in rates, as Chart 2 makes clear.

According to BofA there are five reasons why capitulation is more likely now.

Talking about pension capitulation seems counterintuitive when funded ratios are at record lows on the heels of a significant decline in rates. After all, why would a pension manager hoping for mean reversion at the beginning of the year feel forced to throw in the towel at these levels? 10y rates have been here before, funding ratios have been this low before, and this is not the first time for a flight to quality out of Europe and Japan into the US. What makes this time different? We identify five reasons (three macro, two pension-specific) that make capitulation this time around much more likely:

Here are the reasons:

1. Longer term growth

The key difference from a few years ago is the formalization of the …read more

Source: "This Is The Capitulation Phase" – Why Treasury Yields Are About To Really Plunge

    

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Posted July 3rd, 2016 in Uncategorized.

When Government Controls All Wealth

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By Tyler Durden

JGB

Authored by Bonner & Partners' Bill Bonner (annotated by Acting-Man's Pater Tenebrarum),

Sliding Into Absurdity

Stock markets continued their rebound to almost erase all Brexit losses. London’s FTSE 100 Index is above Brexit levels but Europe’s equivalent of the Dow, the Euro Stoxx 50, remains lower.

No wonder the Dragon and his partners in crime flooded the EU banking system with “money” this past week…

Investors have realized Brexit isn’t the end of the world. First, because they think it won’t really happen. After all, elites can fix elections, buy politicians, and control public policy… surely, they can fix this!

A letter in the Financial Times reminds us that Swedish voters cast their ballots against nuclear power in 1980. The government just ignored them, doubling nuclear power generation over the next 36 years.

Second, because investors see the panic over Brexit leading to more spirited intervention by central banks! The EZ money floodgates – already wide open – are to be opened wider.

The U.S. has its QE program on hold, but Europe’s scheme is gushing like Niagara. Mario Draghi at the European Central Bank buys $90 billion a month in bonds. And he’s not only buying government bonds; he’s buying corporates, too.

Less Than Zero

In Japan, always a trendsetter, the Bank of Japan has bought so many bonds it has pushed Japanese government bond yields below zero – out to more than 45 years on the yield curve!

In other words, you can now lend to the bankrupt Japanese government until 2051 with no hope of making a single yen, nominally, on your investment. Now, with bonds stacking up in their vaults, the Japanese feds are diversifying. They’re buying exchange-traded funds (ETFs), too.

JGB weekly over the past 5 years….still a widow-maker! – click to enlarge.

Via its ETF purchases, the BoJ buys about $30 billion of Japanese stocks a year. This has made it a top 10 shareholder in about 90% of the companies listed on the country’s Nikkei 225 Index.

Apparently, the BoJ announced it would buy a particular kind of politically correct ETF, even before such an investment existed. This led to a rush to meet the demand (no matter how looney) to create exactly the ETF the Japanese feds were looking for.

So now, the phony money created by the BoJ buys phony ETFs created by the sushi equivalent of Wall Street – solely for the purpose of letting the Samurai feds put more phony money into the financial sector. The ETF then must buy politically fashionable companies, many of which probably wouldn’t exist were the fix not in so deeply.

Result? The Bank of Japan – not private investors – is the proud owner of stocks and bonds that private investors didn’t want, bought at prices they wouldn’t pay. The whole show is too goofy for words. But words are all we’ve got!

goofy

Meet Goofy.

Capitalism Without Capital

“It is just a matter of time,” says a friend writing from Switzerland, “before the feds …read more

Source: When Government Controls All Wealth

    

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Posted July 2nd, 2016 in Uncategorized.

NYPD Is Prepared For War With ISIS

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By Tyler Durden

Following the terrorist attack on Istanbul's airport last week, a pro-ISIS Twitter account was used to make threats against airports such as Heathrow, JFK, and Las Angeles International over the Fourth of July weekend.

As the LA Times reports, as of Thursday the FBI nationally said the bureau knew of no known specific or credible threat to the US during the Fourth of July weekend, however SITE Intelligence Group identified and publicized the threat on Friday.

Pro-IS Twitter Account Warns of Attacks in Heathrow, LAX, and JFK Airports on July 4 Weekend https://t.co/nResxCNiwL

— SITE Intel Group (@siteintelgroup) July 1, 2016

With that said, the New York Police Department has been working around the clock to get ahead of any potential attackers, looking far beyond the city limits to do so. “I think that it's inevitable that there'll be another attack in this country. We are well-prepared to respond to that.” said Chief James Waters, the head of NYPD's Counterterrorism Bureau.

As ABC News reports, about 525 specially trained officers rotate shifts so that at any given time, 24/7, some 100 of the officers are ready to roll out with high-powered weapons, radiation detectors and bomb-sniffing Labrador Retrievers that can detect the chemicals known to be used by ISIS for its suicide explosives. The operation is run from a command center in an undisclosed location in lower Manhattan, where the feeds from more than 9,000 surveillance cameras, from the Brooklyn Bridge to Times Square to inside the city's subways are piped in and displayed.

Aside from the specifically New York City, the NYPD Counterterrorism Bureau is looking for global trends to be concerned with as well.

“We look at the global threat environment. What's happening in the world? Are there any new trends that we need to be concerned with? Any new tactics that terrorist groups may be using that have any implication for us here in New York City?” said Meghann Teubner, Director of Counterterrorism Intelligence Analysis in the NYPD's Counterterrorism Bureau.

The security operation has been referred to as a “ring of steel,” an expansion of the concept first used in London. “It's our way of protecting New York” Waters said, adding “It gives us an optic into what goes in New York City on any given day, and it tells us an awful lot with 9,000 cameras and the license plate readers. It gives us a sense to keep our finger on the pulse of what's happening here in the city“

Though officials have said there is no specific threat to New York or any American city over the holiday weekend, Waters thinks New York is a prime target.

The NYPD has studied the recent major terrorist attacks in order to better prepare – “We are constantly looking at tactics, techniques and procedures that are used at those events and how we can better prepare ourselves here in New York City” Captain Gene McCarthy said.

Should someone slip through the cracks and attempt an attack, the NYPD's “last line of defense” …read more

Source: NYPD Is Prepared For War With ISIS

    

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Posted July 2nd, 2016 in Uncategorized.

U.N. Official ‘Accidentally’ Crushes Own Throat Right Before Testifying Against Hillary Clinton

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By Tyler Durden

Submitted by Mac Slavo via SHTFPlan.com,

Call it conspiracy theory, coincidence or just bad luck, but any time someone is in a position to bring down Hillary Clinton by testifying they wind up dead. In fact, there’s a long history of Clinton-related body counts, with scores of people dying under mysterious circumstances.

Perhaps the most notable is Vince Foster. Foster was a partner at Clinton’s law firm and knew the inner workings of the Clinton Machine. Police ruled that death a suicide, though it is often noted that Foster may have been suicided.

Now, another official has found himself on the wrong end of the Clintons. That John Ashe was a former President of the United Nations General Assembly highlights the fact that no one is safe once in their sights.

And as you might have guessed, there are major inconsistencies with Ashe’s death. It was not only conveniently timed because Ashe died just a few days before being set to testify against Clinton in a corruption case, but official reports indicated he died of a heart attack.

The problem, however, is that police on the scene reported Ashe died when his throat was crushed during a work-out accident.

The New York Post’s Page Six reported that after Ashe was found dead Wednesday, the U.N. claimed that he had died from a heart attack. Local police officers in Dobbs Ferry, New York, later disputed that claim, saying instead that he died from a workout accident that crushed his throat.

Adding to the mysterious nature of Ashe’s death was the fact that he had been slated to be in court Monday with his Chinese businessman co-defendant Ng Lap Seng, from whom he reportedly received over $1 billion in donations during his term as president of the U.N. General Assembly.

And then there was this: During the presidency of Bill Clinton, Seng illegally funneled several hundred thousand dollars to the Democrat National Committee.

Source: The Conservative Tribune via The Daily Sheeple

It must be coincidence, right?

If former Secret Service agent Gary Byrne is to be believed, this is business as usual for the Clintons. Excerpt via Zero Hedge:

BYRNE: I feel so strongly that people need to know the real Hillary Clinton and how dangerous she is in her behavior. She is not a leader. She is not a leader.

SEAN: She does not have the temperament?

BYRNE: She doesn’t have the temperament. She didn’t have the temperament to handle the social office when she was First Lady, she does not have the temperament.

SEAN: She’s dishonest.

BYRNE: She’s dishonest, she habitually lies, anybody that can separate themselves from their politics and review her behavior over the past 15 years…

Byrne is the author of the newly published book Crisis Of Character – a first-hand Clinton exposé.

Price To Sales Ratio – Another Nail In The Market’s Coffin?

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By Tyler Durden

720Global-3yr-Ann-GDP

Authored by Michael Lebowitz of 720Global.com (via RealInvestmentAdvice.com),

720 Global has repeatedly warned that U.S. equity valuations are historically high and, of equal concern, not properly reflective of the nation’s weak economic growth potential. In this article we provide further support for that opinion by examining the ratio of equity prices to corporate revenue also known as the price to sales ratio (P/S). At its current record level, the P/S ratio leads us to one of two conclusions: 1) Investors are extremely optimistic about future economic and earnings growth or 2) Investors are once again caught up in the frenzy of an equity bubble and willing to invest at valuations well above the norm.

Either way, the sustainability or extension of the current P/S ratio to even higher levels would be remarkable. What follows here is an exercise in logic aimed at providing clarity on the topic.

Before showing you the current P/S ratio in relation to prior market environments, it is important to first consider two related concepts that frame the message the market is sending us.

Concept #1 – Investors should accept higher than normal valuation premiums when potential revenue growth is higher than normal and require lower than average premiums when potential revenue growth is lower than normal.

Consider someone who is evaluating the purchase of one of two dry cleaning stores (A and B). The two businesses are alike with similar sales, pricing, and locations. However, based on the buyers’ analysis, store A’s future revenue is limited to its historical 2% growth rate. Conversely, the potential buyer believes that store B, despite 2% growth in the past, has a few advantages that are underutilized which the buyer believes can potentially produce a revenue growth rate of 10%. If stores A and B are offered at the same price the buyer would most likely opt to purchase store B. It is also probable the buyer would be willing to pay a higher price for store B versus store A. Therefore highlighting that revenue growth potential is a key factor when deciding how much to pay for a business.

Purchasing a mutual fund, ETF or an equity security is essentially buying a claim on a potential future stream of earnings cash flows, just like the dry cleaning business from the prior example. The odds, therefore, of a rewarding investment are substantially increased when a company, or index for that matter, offering substantial market growth potential is purchased at a lower than average P/S ratio. Value investors actively seek such situations.

Logically one would correctly deduce that P/S ratios should tend to follow a similar directional path as expected revenues.

Concept #2 – Corporate earnings growth = economic growth

Corporate earnings growth rates and economic growth rates are nearly identical over long periods. While many investors may argue that corporate earnings growth varies from the level of domestic economic activity due to the globalization of the economy, productivity enhancements that lower expenses for corporations, interest rates and a host of other factors, history proves otherwise.

Since …read more

Source: Price To Sales Ratio – Another Nail In The Market’s Coffin?

    

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Posted July 2nd, 2016 in Uncategorized.

Hedge Funds No Longer Have Any Idea How To Trade This Market

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By Tyler Durden

Several days ago we posted an update to our favorite trading strategy since 2013: namely betting on the stupidity of the “smart money” and going long the most underowned and hated names, while shorting the most owned ones (recall from September 2013: “”Presenting The Best Trading Strategy Over The Past Year: Why Buying The Most Hated Names Continues To Generate “Alpha“”). As Bank of America confirmed three years later this past Wednesday, this indeed remains the best alpha-generating strategy. Here is what BofA’s Savita Subramanian said:

As flows from active to passive funds have accelerated, one strategy that has worked unusually well for the last several years is a simple positioning trade of selling the 10 most overweight stocks and buying the 10 most underweight stocks by active managers. This single trade has yielded over 16ppt of alpha year-to-date. And implied derisking/ outflows on Brexit alone have been fierce, with the same strategy generating 5.2ppt of alpha just since last Thursday’s close. Even if Brexit’s impact on funds is limited from here, we believe that crowded stocks will likely continue to underperform neglected stocks: a whopping two-thirds of US large cap AUM still resides in active funds – there is likely a lot more to go in the rotation from active to passive.

Here is the proof: “the Top 10 most overbought stocks have trailed the S&P for each of the past three years, while the Top 10 “most neglected” stocks outperformed the S&P on average by 11.6%.”

However, while we would be delighted to take this latest opportunity to gloat, there is a more troubling undertone to this data. Indeed, while we sarcastically pointed out back in 2013 that with the Fed (and now every other central bank) as the market’s Chief Risk Officer, there is no longer a need for anyone to do fundamental analysis, this has not only come true but the outcome is now is far worse. Because it confirms what we have said all along: not only is there no market left aside from what Central Banks decide will happen to “risk assets” on any given day, but the smart money – both hedge and mutual funds – have now completely lost the plot.

For the evidence look no further than the charts below: the first two charts show the relative performance of Goldman’s Hedge Fund VIP basket, the same stocks that comprise the most popular holdings among US hedge funds. Incidentally, this is also the same holdings which back in February we reported that Goldman was trying to make into an ETF in an attempt to offload the most concentrated hedge fund holdings into muppet hands (it failed) and which we added 5 months ago that the “the guaranteed way to make money with this ETF would be to short it” We were right.

The second chart shows that, as we said in 2013, the best offsetting strategy remains to go long the most hated names. It has been pretty much …read more

Source: Hedge Funds No Longer Have Any Idea How To Trade This Market

    

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Posted July 2nd, 2016 in Uncategorized.

Queen Urges "Keep Calm" As Scotland Seeks To Block Brexit

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By Tyler Durden

“If there is a way to stay in the EU, I am determined to pursue it,” proclaimed Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon in an interview with Greece's To Ethnos newspaper, noting that Scottish parliament is looking into legal grounds for a new referendum on secession from UK. This confirms JPMorgan's base case that Scotland will vote for independence and institute a new currency at that point. Shortly after Sturgeon's comments, The Queen made her first post-Brexit speech (ironically in Scottish parliament) urging Britons to “stay calm and focused,” pointedly noting “real leadership requires deeper and more dispassionate thinking in turbulent times.”

A nation divided…

Whih explains why Scotland is looking into legal grounds for holding new referendum on secession from UK, Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon is cited as saying in interview with Greece’s To Ethnos newspaper. As Bloomberg reports,

Other means are being examined in order to block Brexit include debate and vote in Scottish parliament, which would create constitutional issue for UK.

“We are in uncharted waters,” Sturgeon says, adding that “all options are on the table”

“Scotland will continue to consider EU citizens welcome to reside and work in the country”

“If there is a way to stay in the EU, I am determined to pursue it,” first minister says, adding that she is very satisfied from her exchanges with EU officials in Brussels.

Main motive behind decision of many Scots to vote against independence was that staying part of the UK meant staying part of the EU; that motive doesn’t exist anymore, “thus creating new conditions”

* * *

Still, as we also cautioned previously, any veto or scuttling threat may be merely Scotland clutching at straws.

Scottish Secretary and Conservative MP David Mundell said: “We have to respect the result on Thursday, even if we don't like it – it was a UK wide vote – it was a vote by people across the UK.”

Asked about the possibility of Scotland stopping Brexit, he said: “What we need to see is the legal mechanism that we go through to get to a situation of the UK leaving” and then said clearly that “I personally don't believe the Scottish Parliament is in position to block Brexit, but I haven't seen the legal documentation that you refer to in your interview with Nicola [Sturgeon].”

It is unclear what the final legal determination will be on this subject, but if somehow Scotland does succeed in scuttling a historic referendum decision by the majority of the UK population, we urge Edinburgh to build a very big and vary tall wall on its southern border that Hadrian would be proud of (ideally without waiting for Mexico, or the UK, to pay for it).

Meanwhile, as all this takes place, the UK ruling class is in a state of crisis, with both PM Cameron and Chancellor Osborne having disappeared, while the opposition Labour party is undergoing a real time coup attempt, in which as we reported yesterday, party leader Jeremy Corbin has been firing random …read more

Source: Queen Urges "Keep Calm" As Scotland Seeks To Block Brexit

    

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Posted July 2nd, 2016 in Uncategorized.

Hillary Cracks, Gives FBI A "Voluntary" Three Hour Interview Over Private Email Server

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By Tyler Durden

Having previously said she would not be voluntarily subjugated to an interview by the FBI in the agency’s probe surrounding Hillary Clinton’s email server, moments ago NBC reported that the Democratic presidential candidate, seemingly shaken by last week’s events when a meeting between her husband and the US Attorney General Loretta Lynch has sparked a scandal suggesting there is backdoor collusion between the Clintons and the DOJ and that, as Judicial Watch put it, the “fix is in“, has given a “voluntary” three and a half hour interview to the FBI over the use of her private email server.

As NBC reports, “presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton was questioned by the FBI in a long-awaited interview Saturday over the use of her private email server, an aide said. The interview’s purpose was to delve into whether Clinton mishandled classified information submitted on her private email system while she served as secretary of state. Her top staffers have already given testimony.”

The interview happened at the FBI headquarters in Washington, D.C. It lasted approximately three and a half hours.

“Secretary Clinton gave a voluntary interview this morning about her email arrangements while she was Secretary. She is pleased to have had the opportunity to assist the Department of Justice in bringing this review to a conclusion. Out of respect for the investigative process, she will not comment further on her interview,” Nick Merrill, a Clinton spokesman, said in a statement.

As NBC adds, the fact that the interview was “voluntary”, means there was no subpoena. It is unclear if Hillary had been sworn in.

Use of word “voluntarily” in the context of @HillaryClinton FBI interview means there was no subpoena.

— Kelly O’Donnell (@KellyO) July 2, 2016

The interview also means that the investigation is coming to an end and that a charging decision will soon be made (or not).

Rumors that the FBI interview was to take place Saturday, first reported by The Daily Caller, emerged as the Clinton campaign was mired in controversy over a meeting between Attorney General Loretta Lynch and former President Bill Clinton. The two met on Lynch’s airplane on a tarmac in Phoenix on Monday. The attorney general insisted their talk was purely “social” and said they didn’t talk about the emails that the Justice Department are currently reviewing. But she expressed regret Friday for the meeting.

As some have suggested, the rapidly escalating scandal from the meeting between Lynch and Bill Clinton which even David Axelrod admitted was “bad optics”, may have pushed the DOJ to actually do its job, and to accelerate the FBI’s probe. As to whether Hillary will ever be indicted, we are not holding our breath.

Today’s cover: Lynch may be forced to charge Hillary after Bill’s shady powwow https://t.co/GKN6FsMzk1 pic.twitter.com/gn3rYqdxLc

— New York Post (@nypost) July 2, 2016

CLSA Reminds Everyone: The Economy Was Struggling Long Before Brexit

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By Tyler Durden

As a result of Brexit, we pointed out that companies now will have a convenient scapegoat for any future earnings misses, or at the very least use Brexit as a reason to lower guidance for the remainder of the year without any pushback from analysts.

We also noted that with the referendum behind us, everyone would conveniently forget that earnings expectations had already been continuously revised down for quite some time now, long before Brexit.

But if you don't want to take our word for it, here is CLSA reminding everyone as well.

In a recent note, CLSA wrote that world trade growth had hit a new post-global financial crisis low long before Brexit ever came about.

From CLSA

World trade growth hits new low
The UK’s surprise Brexit vote has caused a spike in risk perceptions but even before the vote the global economy was struggling. With the March data world trade growth hit a new post-GFC low. Emerging Market demand has contracted on a YoY basis for six back-to-back months. And developed economy demand has weakened, from +3.7% YoY in the three months to November 2015 to 1.2% YoY in the three months to March

* * *

Of course this won't stop companies from using Brexit as a hall pass in order to explain away any and all misses and forward guidance revisions, and it also won't stop analysts from using the infamous “one-time adjustment” line in order to paper over the weaker earnings, but it is good to keep this in mind that the new narrative isn't the whole truth.

…read more

Source: CLSA Reminds Everyone: The Economy Was Struggling Long Before Brexit

    

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Posted July 2nd, 2016 in Uncategorized.

All Eyes Now Turn To FBI Director Jim Comey In Clinton Investigation

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By Tyler Durden

News about any FBI activity as it relates to the investigation into Hillary Clinton has been sparse lately, and as we noted earlier, the fact that it has been relatively quiet may be a growing concern inside the Clinton camp. However, due to the fallout from the recent private meeting between Attorney General Loretta Lynch and Bill Clinton, the spotlight is now squarely shining on the FBI, and director Jim Comey in particular.

Recall that immediately after the public learned of the purely coincidental meeting, Lynch went into pure damage control mode. After simply telling reporters that all the two discussed was Bill’s golf game and his grandchildren wasn’t enough to quiet the questions surrounding the true intent of the meeting, Lynch decided to have a televised interview in order to clarify everything. During the interview, Lynch said that while she wasn’t formally recusing herself from the decision whether or not to bring charges against Hillary, Lynch said that whatever recommendations were given from the department’s career prosecutors and investigators, as well as the FBI director, would be accepted. Ironically, Lynch said that the decision to accept those recommendations was made long before the meeting with Clinton.

“While I don’t have a role in those findings and coming up with those findings or making those recommendations as to how to go forward, I’ll be briefed on it and I will be accepting their recommendations,” Lynch said during the interview.

With that said, as The Hill points out, the attention has now shifted to FBI Director Jim Comey and whether or not the FBI will recommend that the DOJ bring charges against Clinton.

“Comey is the center of gravity on this thing. There is a growing expectation that we the public need to hear the FBI, Jim Comey version of whether or not charges will be brought. There has probably been increasing recognition by her that that’s true, that she is viewed as – regardless of her prior reputation as an effective prosecutor – she’s now head of Obama’s DOJ, a political position in a Democratic administration that is deciding on the prosecution or not of the leading Democratic candidate” said former FBI assistant director Ron Hosko.

As we said, there hasn’t been much public news on the FBI’s progress in the matter since we last reported that Hillary’s top aide Huma Abedin was interviewed by the FBI back in May. Comey has said regarding the investigation that “We want to do it well and we want to do it promptly. As between the two things, we will always choose well.“

Comey will now be looked at with a more intense focus from the public, as Lynch essentially punted the ball over to the FBI on whether or not to recommend charges. If Comey recommends charges, then the public will immediately know whether or not Lynch was telling the truth about accepting the FBI’s recommendation on the matter. As The Hill puts it, Comey is widely respected by GOP …read more

Source: All Eyes Now Turn To FBI Director Jim Comey In Clinton Investigation

    

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Posted July 2nd, 2016 in Uncategorized.

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