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By Tyler Durden

Seemed appropriate for today…

Bullion and bonds continue to dramatically outperform post-Brexit…

Following the best week for stocks in two years, having failed to reach the pre-Brexit highs, stocks rolled over today led by Trannies and Small Caps…

Post-Brexit Trannies and Small Caps are also the biggest losers…

Futures show the selling began Sunday night and has been 'well behaved' for now…

Banks were battered…

Tesla did what Tesla does…

VIX pushed back above 16.5 briefly before being hit in the last hour…

Stocks began to catch down to bonds and FX reality…

The USD Index rose modestly today as Cable tumbled and JPY rallied against the USD…

Cable fell to fresh 31 year lows (below 1.3000)…

Difficult to see the pound forming the Dying Elephant pattern as good news pic.twitter.com/aVx5DqVTaD

— Giles Wilkes (@Gilesyb) July 5, 2016

And as gilt yields tumbled, swissy govies went negative out to 50Y, so US Treasury yields plunged to fresh record lows…having crashed post-Brexit…

With 2s30s collapsing to new cycle lows… (dragging financials lower)…

With global developed market bond yields collapsed to record lows at just 42bps…

Commodities were mixed with copper and crude clubbed and PMs bid since Friday…

But note the craziness in Silver over the last 48 hours…

And crude was not pretty…biggest drop in 9 months

Charts: Bloomberg

Bonus Chart: A gentle reminder of the utter farce that the US equity market has become…

…read more

Source: Banks Battered As Bond Yields ‘Comey-kaze’ Dive To Record Lows

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By Tyler Durden

As first reported last night, and following up this morning, in an episode painfully reminiscent of the Bear hedge fund “freezes” that preceded the bank’s 2008 collapse and the great financial crisis , first Standard Life halted trading in its property fund, followed hours later by both Aviva and M&G which likewise announced they are suspending trading in their own portfolio funds. And, as Bloomberg summarizes, three of the U.K.’s largest real estate funds have frozen almost 9.1 billion pounds ($12 billion) of assets after Britain’s shock vote to leave the European Union sparked a flurry of redemptions.

These were the first major dominoes to fall as a result of the confusion resulting from the Brexit vote. M&G Investments, Aviva Investors and Standard Life Investments halted withdrawals because they don’t have enough cash to immediately repay investors. About 24.5 billion pounds is allocated to U.K. real estate funds, according to the Investment Association.

The rush by private investors to withdraw money prompted M&G, which held 7.7% in cash before the vote, to suspend its 4.4 billion-pound Property Portfolio fund and Aviva Investors to freeze its 1.8 billion-pound Property Trust on Tuesday. Standard Life halted trading on its 2.9 billion-pound U.K. real estate fund on Monday. The cash position for Aviva and Standard Life’s funds at the end of May was 9.3% and 13.1% respectively.

The market reaction has been swift and brutal, sending stocks of the property-linked asset managers crashing.

Standard Life is among firms, including Aberdeen Asset Management Plc, Henderson Group Plc, Legal & General Group Plc and M&G to adjust the value of assets in their property funds last week. Holdings in the funds range from an office building in Birmingham, to a mall in Newcastle and retail warehouses in Northampton.

“Investor redemptions in the fund have risen markedly because of the high levels of uncertainty in the U.K. commercial property market since the outcome of the European Union referendum,” M&G said on its website. Outflows “have now reached a point where M&G believes it can best protect the interests of the funds’ shareholders by seeking a temporary suspension.”

“The dominoes are starting to fall in the U.K. commercial property market,” said Laith Khalaf, a senior analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown. “The problem these funds face is that it takes time to sell commercial property to meet withdrawals, and the cash buffers built up by the managers have been eroded by investors heading for the door.”

Cited by Bloomberg, “the drop-off in inflows and then redemptions forces these funds to eat into their liquidity buffer,” much of which is held in real estate investment trust shares, Mike Prew, an analyst at Jefferies LLC, said in a note to clients on Tuesday.

While traders around the globe had been mostly focused on the downstream effects slamming Italian banks in recent weeks, the news of “freezing” UK property funds spooked global markets, and as a result the pound fell to its weakest level in three decades against the dollar Tuesday, surpassing lows reached in the aftermath …read more

Source: "The Dominoes Are Fallling": Three Largest UK Property Funds Freeze $12 Billion In Assets, More To Come

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By Tyler Durden

Submitted by Raul Ilargi Meijer via The Automatic Earth blog,

We used to have this saying that if someone asks you to do a job good, fast and cheap, you’d say: pick two. You can have it good and cheap, but then it won’t be fast, etc. As our New Zealand correspondent Dr. Nelson Lebo III explains below, when it comes to our societies we face a similar issue with our climate, energy and the economy.

Not the exact same, but similar, just a bit more complicated. You can’t have your climate nice and ‘moderate’, your energy cheap and clean, and your economy humming along just fine all at the same time. You need to make choices. That’s easy to understand.

Where it gets harder is here: if you pick energy and economy as your focus, the climate suffers (for climate you can equally read ‘the planet’, or ‘the ecosystem’). Focus on climate and energy, and the economy plunges. So far so ‘good’.

But when you emphasize climate and economy, you get stuck. There is no way the two can be ‘saved’ with our present use of fossil fuels, and our highly complex economic systems cannot run on renewables (for one thing, the EROEI is not nearly good enough).

It therefore looks like focusing on climate and economy is a dead end. It’s either/or. Something will have to give, and moreover, many things already have. Better be ahead of the game if you don’t want to be surprised by these things. Be resilient.

But this is Nelson’s piece, not mine. The core of his argument is worth remembering:

“Everything that is not resilient to high energy prices and extreme weather events will become economically unviable…

…and approach worthlessness. On the other hand,…

Investments of time, energy, and money in resilience will become more economically valuable…”

Here’s Nelson:

Nelson Lebo: There appear to be increasing levels of anxiety among environmental activists around the world and in my own community in New Zealand. After all, temperature records are being set at a pace equal only to that of Stephen Curry and LeBron James in the NBA Finals. A recent Google news headline said it all: “May is the 8th consecutive month to break global temperature records.”

In other words, October of last year set a record for the highest recorded global monthly temperature, and then it was bettered by November, which was bettered by December, January, and on through May. The hot streak is like that of Lance Armstrong’s Tour De France dominance, but we all know how that turned out in the end.

Making history – like the Irish rugby side in South Africa recently – is usually a time to celebrate. Setting a world record would normally mean jubilation – not so when it comes to climate.

Responses to temperature records range from sorrow, despair, anger, and even fury. Anyone with children or grandchildren (and even the childless) who believes in peer review and an overwhelming scientific consensus has every right to feel these emotions. So why do I …read more

Source: Climate, Energy, Economy: Pick Two

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By Tyler Durden

The number of sexual assaults in Europe as a result of the refugee crisis has been something that we have covered extensively, most notably the “monstrous” attacks by men “of Arab or North African origin” that occurred on German women in Cologne during a New Year celebration (that led to the ministry actually trying to scrub the word “rape” from internal reports). However, there have been other instances, such as an assault by a “dark skinned” man on a 13 year old girl at a pool in the town of Mistelbach, Austria. Now we learn that a mob of “foreign youths” sexually assaulted 35 females as young as 12 years old at a Swedish music festival.

At least 35 females aged between 12 and 17 reported being attacked during the Party in the Park festival in Karlstad on Friday and Saturday night, and some of the alleged victims reported being 'kissed and groped' in a situation reminiscent of the Cologne New Year attacks the Daily Mail reports.

17 year old victim Alexandra Larsson waived her right to anonymity to describe in detail how an attacker targeted her while Larsson was watching the event. Larsson tells how boys that “were not from a Swedish background” started groping her, and threatening her by saying “you will die, b***h.”

From The Daily Mail

'Everything was okay at the beginning of the evening. But things got out of hand during the last concert with John de Sohn that started at midnight.

'At first we were pushed right up against the stage by the massive crowd. Everyone around us behaved really badly and my friends told a couple of boys to quieten down.

They were then threatened by the boys who said “you will die, b***h”. But the verbal abuse was just beginning. It would become much worse.

'We managed to walk away from those boys after a while and started watching the concert. That was when I felt the first touch against my bottom.

'Then someone took the liberty of grabbing my butt really hard. I turned away and said to the group of boys behind us that this was not okay, but I did not know who had done it. After a while, I felt someone running his fingers between my legs touching my genitals. Luckily, I had jeans on me.'

After the harassment, she turned around and said to the group of young men standing next to her that they should stop what they were doing. But everyone around her claimed to be innocent. It then happened again, she said.

'I turned around and screamed right out that “whoever it was – you're a pig!” I told my friends what had just happened and they were all shocked. Me and my girlfriends decided to leave the concert, because we could not see who it was. It was just a sea of ??people.'

Ms Larsson described a feeling of powerlessness as the festival she and her friends had been looking …read more

Source: A Mob Of ‘Foreign Youths’ Assault 35 Females At Swedish Music Festival

    

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By Tyler Durden

While the picture is a little more mixed today in Italian banks, as it appears investors are picking winners and losers rather than just broadly dumping it all, Monte Paschi is a standout disaster. Having crashed 45% since Brexit and with CDS implying a 40%-plus probability of default, the major Italian bank also has the worst 'Texas ratio' as stress tests loom… As Saxo's Peter Garnry warns “an implosion of the Italian banking system would cascade into other European banks and the funding market, creating disorderly markets and lower sentiment causing a slowdown in economic growth and also prices.”

From bad to worse…

And as Saxo Bank's head of equity strategy Peter Garnry notes, Italian banks need a solution… quickly!

The biggest theme emerging in the post-Brexit world is the evolving banking crisis in Italy which has actually been under way since the beginning of the year as the new non-performing exposure rules started to be enforced by the European Banking Authority.

UniCredit, Intesa, Monte Paschi, Banco Popolare, and UBI collectively had €119 billion in unprovisioned non-performing loans at the end of Q1 with UniCredit’s exposure being the critical piece in the overall European banking system.

The Italian banking system has around €400bn in total non-performing loans. The aggregate common equity among Italian publicly-listed banks was around €125B (as of the end of Q1) and around 75% of the uncovered non-performing loans.

Another way to understand the Italian banking crisis is through the lens of the Texas Ratio, which measures the amount of non-performing assets and loans (including loans delinquent for more than 90 days) divided by the bank’s tangible equity plus its loan loss reserve.

A ratio above 100% is big warning signal.

Seven out of the 47 banks in the Euro STOXX 600 Banks Index are currently above that threshold with three of those being Italian banks. But just below the threshold two Italian banks – UniCredit and Intesa – follow, showing the magnitude of the Italian banking crisis.

* * *

While 'hope' for non bail-in bailouts remains, Garnry concludes, it is more likely, should the situation deteriorate further, that the European Central Bank will inject capital into Italian banks in return for collateral under the mandate of price stability. An implosion of the Italian banking system would cascade into other European banks and the funding market, creating disorderly markets and lower sentiment causing a slowdown in economic growth and also prices.

As inflation is already barely above zero, another wave of downward pressure on consumer prices would force the ECB to act. Under such interpretation of price stability, the ECB could become the bailout mechanism for Italian banks, but it would come at a cost to shareholders and creditors.

…read more

Source: Saxo Fears "Cascading Implosion" As Italian Bank Collapse Continues

    

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Posted July 5th, 2016 in Uncategorized.

"Here They Come Again!" – Precious Metals Traders See Third Smackdown

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By Tyler Durden

For the third time since Friday’s close, gold and silver prices are being vertically challenged by an urgent ‘seller’. In the latest round of monkey-hammering ‘someone’ decided to opportunistically sell over $1 billion notional gold in 5 minutes…

As one veteran PM trader exclaimed “here they come again,” – we presume meaning The BIS…

…read more

Source: "Here They Come Again!" – Precious Metals Traders See Third Smackdown

    

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WTF Chart Of The Day – Factory Orders Collapse To Longest Streak In US History

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By Tyler Durden

For the 19th month in a row, US Factory Orders decline YoY (-1.2% for May) with a 1% drop MoM. Simply put, in 60 years of historical data, the US economy has never, ever suffered a 19 month stretch of consecutive annual declines…

And yet we are supposed to believe there is no recession?

What happens next?

Charts: Bloomberg

…read more

Source: WTF Chart Of The Day – Factory Orders Collapse To Longest Streak In US History

    

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Posted July 5th, 2016 in Uncategorized.

Swiss Interest Rates Plunge To Negative Out To 50 Years

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By Tyler Durden

With the short-end of the Swiss yield curve yielding below -100bps, it was only a matter of time before things went entirely mad at the long-end and today for the first time in history Swiss 50Y yields have tumbled below zero (trading as low as -2.7bps) as US Treasury yields tumble to fresh record lows.

As Bloomberg notes, rising concern about the outlook for economic growth and inflation effectively means that investors are paying the Swiss government for the privilege of lending to them out to 50 years.

Britain's vote to leave the European Union has darkened the economic outlook beyond Britain's shores and increased investor demand for safe-haven government bonds, even when the yield is below zero.

That's because investors expect further interest rate cuts and monetary easing from central banks around the world in response to the increased uncertainty.

“It's a reflection on the very bad prospects for the European and global economy,” said Ciaran O'Hagan, senior rates strategist at Societe Generale in Paris.

“Bond yields are driven by inflation and growth, but there's no inflation and there's no growth. The economy is built on confidence, and if there's no confidence there's no economy,” he said.

Which – obviously -means the entire Swiss government bond curve is now below zero…

This won't end well.

Charts: Bloomberg

…read more

Source: Swiss Interest Rates Plunge To Negative Out To 50 Years

    

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A Look Inside Europe’s Next Crisis: Why Everyone Is Finally Panicking About Italian Banks

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By Tyler Durden

Back in May 2013, we wrote an article titled “Europe’s EUR 500 Billion Ticking NPL Time Bomb” in which we laid out very simply what the biggest danger facing European banks was: non-performing, or bad, loans.

We further said, that “Europe’s non-performing loan problem is such an issue that there is increasing bluster that the ECB may take this garbage on to its balance sheet since policymakers realize that bad debts and non-performing loans (NPLs) reduce the capacity of banks to lend, hindering the monetary policy transmission mechanism. Bad debts consume capital and make banks more risk averse, especially with respect to lending to higher risk borrowers such as SMEs. With Italy (NPLs 13.4%) now following the same dismal trajectory of Spain’s bad debts, the situation is rapidly escalating (at an average of around 2.5% increase per year).

The conclusion was likewise simple:

“The bottom line is that at its core, it is all simply a bad-debt problem, and the more the bad debt, the greater the ultimate liability impairments become, including deposits. As we answered at the time – the real question in Europe is: how much impairment capacity is there in the various European nations before deposits have to be haircut? With Periphery non-performing loans totaling EUR 720bn across the whole of the Euro area in 2012 and EUR 500bn of which were with Peripheral banks.”

Now, three years later, the bomb appears to be on the verge of going off (or may have already quietly exploded), and nowhere is it more clear than in an exhaustive article written by the WSJ in which it focuses on Italy’s insolvent banking system, and blames – what else – the hundreds of billions in NPLs on bank books as the culprit behind Europe’s latest upcoming crisis.

To be sure, nothing new here, although it is a good recap of the Catch 22 Italy finds itself in: from the WSJ’s “Bad Debt Piled in Italian Banks Looms as Next Crisis“

Britain’s vote to leave the EU has produced dire predictions for the U.K. economy. The damage to the rest of Europe could be more immediate and potentially more serious. Nowhere is the risk concentrated more heavily than in the Italian banking sector. In Italy, 17% of banks’ loans are sour. That is nearly 10 times the level in the U.S., where, even at the worst of the 2008-09 financial crisis, it was only 5%. Among publicly traded banks in the eurozone, Italian lenders account for nearly half of total bad loans.

Years of lax lending standards left Italian banks ill-prepared when an economic slump sent bankruptcies soaring a few years ago. At one major bank, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, bad loans were so thick it assigned a team of 700 to deal with them and created a new unit to house them. Several weeks ago, the bank put the bad-credit unit up for sale, hoping a foreign partner would speed the liquidation process.

The headquarters of Banca Monte dei …read more

Source: A Look Inside Europe’s Next Crisis: Why Everyone Is Finally Panicking About Italian Banks

    

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Bank Of England Unveils First Easing Measures After Brexit

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By Tyler Durden

The Bank of England lowered capital requirements for UK banks Tuesday in an effort to shore up the UK economy, saying that it “strongly expects” banks to support the economy with fresh loans in the wake of Brexit.

In its first official easing act, the Financial Policy Committee lowered the countercyclical-capital buffer rate for UK exposures to zero from .5% of risk-weighted assets in a move that it said would raise the capacity for bank lending to households and businesses by as much as £150 billion. “This action reinforces the FPC’s view that all elements of the substantial capital and liquidity buffers that have been built up by banks are to be drawn on, as necessary” the committee said in a statement.

More from the WSJ

The BOE’s decision marks one of the first instances of a major central bank deliberately lowering bank capital requirements to maintain growth in credit to offset an economic shock. Lower capital requirements allow banks to finance loans and other assets with more borrowing and less equity.

The bank’s move will be closely watched as a test case of the new “macroprudential” regulatory regime adopted in the U.K. and other advanced economies after the financial crisis. The BOE gained broad new powers over the financial system and an explicit goal of safeguarding financial stability. It has spent the past few years bolstering lenders’ financial strength.

Officials warned Tuesday that the stability of the U.K. financial system faces multiple threats in the wake of the Brexit vote. The BOE said it has already detected signs in stock markets and commercial real-estate markets that foreign investors are pulling money out of the U.K. A real-estate fund managed by Standard Life Investments on Monday suspended withdrawals following a spate of redemption requests.

The BOE said some overstretched households might struggle to service their debts if the economy lurches downward. And officials warned that the outlook for the global economy has darkened.

Still, officials stressed the financial system is stronger now than it was in 2008 and 2009, when British taxpayers had to bail out stricken lenders and credit dried up. They also flagged that banks have parked collateral with the BOE sufficient to access more than £250 billion of funding if they need it.

“The FPC has monitored these channels of risk closely. There is evidence that some risks have begun to crystallise. The current outlook for UK financial stability is challenging” the report said, identifying five channels through which the referendum could increase risks to financial stability.

From the report:

The Committee had identified the following channels through which the referendum could increase risks to financial stability:

• the financing of the United Kingdom’s large current account deficit, which relied on continuing material inflows of portfolio and foreign direct investment;

• the UK commercial real estate (CRE) market, which had experienced particularly strong inflows of capital from overseas and where valuations in some segments of the market had become stretched;

• the high level of UK household indebtedness, the vulnerability to higher …read more

  Source: Bank Of England Unveils First Easing Measures After Brexit

      

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Posted July 5th, 2016 in Uncategorized.

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