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By Tyler Durden

We hope this helps…

Quite a week!!!

• S&P +3.3% – best week since Oct 2014 Bullard Bounce
• “Most Shorted” stocks =10.1% in last 4 days – biggest squeeze since May 2009
• Financials +3% – best week in 3 months
• 30Y Treasury yield to record low – best week in 3 months
• Silver +11.25% – best week since Aug 2013
• Gold up 5 weeks in a row
• Oil +3.2% – best week in six weeks
• Copper +5.5% – best week in 3 months

Since Brexit, bonds and bullion remain best and stocks tried their best to scramble back to unch…

The Dow has been the best post-Brexit performer… gettuing with 9 Dow points of the pre-Brexit close…

S&P at 2,100 and Dow at 18,000 were as crucial as getting green to Brexit…

TS S&P/DOW

On a yuuge short squeeze…(biggest weekly rise in “Most Shorted” in 4 months)

BUT the last 4 days' 10.1% surge is the biggest since May 2009!

On no volume…

It's been quite a few weeks for VIX… its biggest drop in history this week

While financials had a great week, they are still down over 2% from Brexit…

And the curve just keeps running away from them…

Treasury yields have tumbled since Brexit, reaccelerating lower today…

To record lows for 10Y and 30Y…

As 2s30s curve crahses to its lowest since Jan 2008 – when the last recession was underway…

FX markets were choppy but volatility dropped as The USD Index slid 4 days in row…

Commodities all rose on the week but Crude remain slower post-Brexit as Silver explodes…

Crude rallied thgrough the NYMEX close for the 10th day of the last 11 and extended on…

Silver is up 14% in the last 6 days post-Brexit… pushing for $20… the biggest surge since August 2013…

Charts: Bloomberg

…read more

Source: Breuphoria – Stocks Explode Higher On Biggest Short Squeeze In 7 Years

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Legislation would deny minor league players the right to demand minimum wage and overtime pay. …read more

Source: Minor league baseball pay under fire

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By Tyler Durden

Over the past few months we have witnessed massive cost cutting efforts (ie: firing of bankers) by many firms, Goldman, BAML, Nomura and RBS to name a few. Now it’s time to add Commerzbank to the list of firms that need to fire people in order to try and cut enough costs to maintain earnings.

Germany’s Commerzbank announced that it is cutting more than 100 investment banking related jobs in its New York office as part of its efforts to streamline its operations and boos profitability the WSJ reports, as a sluggish trading environment continues to weigh on profits. The bank announced last year that it was going to bundle investment banking activities in certain locations.

“We are now consequently following this strategy with the realignments of our organizational setup in North America.” said Michael Reuther, head of investment banking operations.

From the WSJ

The current cuts, which were reported earlier by German daily Handelsblatt, affect about 100 back-office and roughly 10 front-office jobs, according to Mr. Reuther’s memo.

As consequence of the cutbacks, Germany’s second-largest lender by market capitalization will outsource the clearing of “non-U.S. commercial payments to” U.S. banks and stop its securities lending as well as structured finance business in the U.S.

Mr. Reuther stressed however that “North America is and will remain an important international hub for Commerzbank” with the New York office being critical for services for U.S. corporate and institutional clients. “We will continue to provide products such as [U.S. dollar] loans and [U.S. dollar] bonds, foreign exchange and other risk-management solutions, as well as equity markets access to our clients,” he said.

* * *

As we say each time more layoffs are announced, the pain is not over and companies will continue to cut labor to the bone in order to try and mask slumping revenues.

…read more

Source: Commerzbank To Cut Over 100 Bankers In NYC

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By Tyler Durden

The seeds of European disconent are spreading. One week after Britain voted to separate amicably with the EU, the president of the Czech Republic, Milos Zeman, called for a referendum on his country’s membership in the EU and NATO. Demonstrating a shocking grasp of what democracy truly is, while Zeman wants to remain in both organizations, he wants the public to have a chance to “express themselves” something which sends a spike of terror through the hearts of all unelected Brussels bureaucrats.

Meanwhile, support for the EU is waning in the central European country. In April, a poll conducted by the CVVM institute showed that just 25% of the population is satisfied with their membership in the bloc, as cited by Reuters. Twelve months earlier, that figure had stood at 32%. And so, following on Britain’s vote to exit the EU, Zeman now wants to give the Czech public the chance to decide their own future, as skepticism about the merits of remaining in the bloc continues to rise.

“I disagree with those who are for leaving the European Union,” Czech Radio quoted Zeman as saying on Thursday evening, according to Reuters. “But I will do everything for them to have a referendum and be able to express themselves. And the same goes for a NATO exit too,” he added.

Czech president Milos Zeman

Needless to say, Zeman’s plans have not been well received across the EU, which is – at least on paper – reeling from the political and economic fallout of Britain’s decision to leave the bloc, a decision which however has sent stocks soaring in anticipation of more monetary easing and which has prompted Italy to use Brexit as a scapegoat to demand a bailout of its insolvent banks. Most prominently, in the wake of the vote, the leader of France’s far-right National Front party Marine Le Pen also called for a referendum on leaving the EU for her country.

Spain’s acting foreign minister, Jose Manuel Garcia-Margallo, said that the Czech Republic should not hold a referendum on EU membership, calling it “a very bad idea,” despite the fact that Zeman has publically stated that he wants to remain in both institutions.

That said, holding a referendum will be no formality as it would require that changes be made to the Czech constitution, and Zeman has no power to call the vote himself. As RT notes, if a referendum was to take place, the constitution would need to be amended, which would require a 60 percent vote of support from both houses of parliament.

In response to Zeman’s proposal, Czech Prime Minister Bohuslav Sobotka’s office said that the government has no intention of holding a referendum. However, Sobotka admits that changes to the bloc need to be made.

“We need to change the functioning of Europe as such and reduce the red tape. I would be pleased if we sent a clear signal in the early autumn at the latest about how we would like to …read more

Source: Czech President Calls For EU, NATO Referendums

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By Tyler Durden

In an interview today on CNBC, Art Cashin hits the nail on the head as he typically does when asked about the central banks, the bond market and US Treasury yields hitting new record lows.

“It’s attracting money, it’s a very powerful magnet and it’s going to keep doing that.”

“With all apologies to Janet Yellen it’s getting to a point where it doesn’t matter what the Fed thinks, rates are going to stay low.”

On whether anything Stanley Fischer said today changes the view on that, Cashin delivers epic truthiness that nobody with a PhD sitting in the Eccles building ever wants to hear again.

“Not at all, I think the only thing I heard from him was a mild frustration that they couldn’t get things going. The market is more powerful than the Fed, that’s the problem.”

Or put another way (h/t @RudyHavenstein) – “Let the market clear!!”

…read more

Source: Art Cashin Sums It All Up

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By Tyler Durden

As DB’s Jim Reid says, June 2016 will always be remembered as the month when the UK voted to leave the EU and it’s fair to say that the overwhelming focus on the referendum dominated price action in markets from start to finish. Risk assets initially tumbled into mid-month as the leave campaign built momentum, however a swing back in favour for the remain campaign saw most major markets wipe out early month losses to go into the vote relatively flat. However with momentum favouring the remain camp and markets pricing in largely a remain outcome, the vote in favour to leave sparked a huge risk off move. This lasted for all of two days however before markets rebounded into month end. That said the magnitude of the post vote selloff was enough to see risk assets dominate the bottom of our June leaderboard.

So how did assets classes close out June?

In local currency terms it is equity markets that occupy the bottom. The worst performer during the month was European Banks (-18%), followed closely by the peripheral markets (Athex -15%, FTSE MIB -10% and IBEX -9%). The Nikkei (-10%) is also wedged in their which suffered with a 7% rally for the Yen. The Stoxx 600 and DAX were down -5% and -6% respectively during the month while the S&P 500 (+0.3%) just finished in positive territory on the last day of the month. The other notable underperformer during the month was unsurprisingly Sterling which tumbled just over 8%. As a result however the FTSE 100 (+5%) held in well in local currency terms, although this translates to a -4% decline and so one of the more notable underperformers when we look in USD terms.

At the top end of the leaderboard top two spots go to Silver (+17%) and Gold (+9%) which were the main beneficiaries from the risk-off moves at the end of the month. In USD terms the Bovespa actually occupies top spot however (+20%) as a result of the rally in the BRL during the month. Rates markets get an honourable mention too following the big rally in bonds in the last week. Gilts returned +6% (however -3% in USD terms) while Treasuries and other European bond markets were up between +1% and +3% (with the core outperforming the periphery). Credit markets were a bit more mixed however. In line with the wider risk off moves, higher beta credit underperformed with Eur HY and Fins Subs up to -1% lower. US HY (+1%) just stayed in positive territory while US all Corps (+2%) and Non-Fins (+3%) outperformed their EUR equivalents (+1% and +2%). GBP credit saw a similar picture with HY (-1%) and Fins subs (-1%) down but all Corps (+3%) and Non Fins (+3%) still under-performing gilts but holding in better. The latter two markets were helped by a +1.5% rally in the last week or so. It’s worth highlighting that EM bonds (+4%) and equities (+4%) had a relatively strong month all things considered.

<a target=_blank rel="nofollow" …read more

Source: The Best And Worst Performing Assets In June And Q2

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By Tyler Durden

US Manufacturing PMI fell back very modestly from its flash reading but rose MoM to 51.3 as Markit warns “producers are struggling in the face of the strong dollar, the energy sector decline and presidential election jitters.” But, ISM Manufacturing surged full of hope to 53.2, above the highest analyst estimate (a 4 standard deviation beat of expectations). Every subcomponent rose aside from Prices Paid as it appears – as opposed to everything we have seen in earnings and chatter – that Brexit, election uncertainty has done nothing at all to dampen 'hope'. In the face of this seasionally-adjusted exuberance, construction spending has plunged almost 3% in the last 2 months – the biggest drop since Feb 2011.

Anothewr miracle of seasonal adjustment…

Sending Manufacturing ISM to 16 month highs…

ISM Components – all up but Prices Paid…

• New orders rose to 57 vs 55.7
• Employment rose to 50.4 vs 49.2
• Supplier deliveries rose to 55.4 vs 54.1
• Inventories rose to 48.5 vs 45.0
• Customer inventories rose to 51.0 vs 50.0
• Prices paid fell to 60.5 vs 63.5
• Backlog of orders rose to 52.5 vs 47.0
• New export orders rose to 53.5 vs 52.5
• Imports rose to 52.0 vs 50.0

Thanks to the miracle of seasonal-adjustments… New Orders worst since Feb but adjusted to best since March…

And respondents were decidedly mixed…

“We are gaining new customers through better sales management.” (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products)

“Slower shipments because of weather related flooding.” (Chemical Products)

“Conditions have remained steady from [the] past month and are in line with our forecast.” (Computer & Electronic Products)

“Very good start of summer for business levels/orders.” (Fabricated Metal Products)

“Business is steady with some signs of increase.” (Machinery)

“Business is still strong, but slowing slightly.” (Transportation Equipment)

“Business conditions are good, production and demand are stable.” (Miscellaneous Manufacturing)

“Orders are slowing from China. American customers still steady.” (Primary Metals)

“Demand continues to be robust.” (Plastics & Rubber Products)

“Business is still slower than expected.” (Nonmetallic Mineral Products)

However, as Markit notes,

“Producers are struggling in the face of the strong dollar, the energy sector decline and presidential election jitters. With companies craving certainty, heightened tensions between the UK and the European Union are likely to unsettle the global business environment further in coming months, and therefore risk dampening growth in the US and export markets. The data flow in the next two months will therefore be critical to policymakers in gauging the appropriate outlook for interest rates.”

While that is all very exciting, it appears the construction industry just hit a wall…

…read more

Source: US Manufacturing ISM Surges To 16-Month Highs (as Construction Spending Crashes)

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By Tyler Durden

Is this even allowed? It appears S&P has joined the cynical, skeptical ranks of fiction-peddlers and has axed its economic outlook for the US economy.

“All told, we expect the repercussions from Brexit to weigh somewhat on U.S. GDP,” says S&P’s U.S. Chief Economist Beth Ann Bovino. “Combining this with lower-than-expected first quarter growth leads to the lowering of our forecast for growth this year and next.”

Furthermore, while S&P is dovish on 2016…

The Fed will now likely stay on the sidelines until the December FOMC meeting then will likely raise rates by 25 basis points

They go full hawkish on The Fed’s next few years…

• S&P SEES FED RAISING RATES 3 TIMES IN ’17, 3 MORE TIMES IN ’18

As S&P details,

We expect growth of about 2.0% this year following 2.4% in 2015. During 2017-2018, we expect real GDP growth to average about 2.3%. This growth rate is supported by an ongoing improvement in both the housing sector and the labor market, with steady job gains putting unemployment at 4.7% in May.

The decline in shale energy investment stemming from lower global oil prices has weighed on both investment and near-term growth. However, that should reverse eventually given the removal of the export ban on U.S. oil exports. In addition, we expect continued competitiveness gains in manufacturing because of competitive labor costs and the lower cost of natural gas stemming from increased shale gas production. Also, deleveraging in the U.S. household sector is more advanced than it is for European sovereigns, and the U.S. banking system has bolstered its financial strength more through raising capital than deleveraging.

We also expect the moderation in fiscal drag at the federal, state, and local government levels (together, the general government) in 2014 and 2015 to continue to support growth given some near-term relaxation of the sequester caps following the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2015 (BBA2015).

Will the ratings agency get sued again?

Of course, S&P is still above consensus for 2016…

…read more

Source: S&P Slashes US Economic Growth Outlook, Blames Brexit

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By Tyler Durden

The new normal sure is strange: with the S&P flirting with all time highs, not to mention staging another dramatic V-shaped comeback from the post-Brexit crash which saw S&P futures trade limit down a week ago, investors keep on selling. According to Lipper data, U.S.-based stock mutual funds, which are held by retail mom-and-pop investors, posted cash withdrawals of $2.8 billion over the weekly period ended Wednesday; this was the 16th consecutive week of outflows.

All stock funds, including ETFs, posted an even wider $6.8 billion outflow last week to mark their biggest withdrawals since early May, while taxable bond funds posted $2.6 billion in outflows after raking in $2.5 billion the prior week. The perpetual question of who is buying remains especially after BofA reported earlier this week that its “smart money” clients sold US stocks for the third consecutive week and in 21 of the past 22 weeks, led by institutional clients’ sales.

The money went into low-risk money market funds which attracted $25.1 billion in new cash in the week ended June 29 after Britain voted to leave the European Union data from Thomson Reuters’ Lipper service showed on Thursday. In addition commodities and precious metals funds, as well as funds that specialize in safe-haven U.S. Treasuries, attracted their biggest inflows since February.

Lipper research analyst Pat Keon said U.S.-domiciled mutual funds took in $18.9 billion in net new money for the fund-flows week ended Wednesday, but the large net inflow number is almost entirely attributable to money market funds “as investors put money on the sidelines to wait out the uncertainty caused by the Brexit leave vote.” Municipal bond funds, also considered low-risk, contributed to the overall inflows with their 39th straight week of gains, at $649 million, Keon said. Taxable bond funds posted withdrawals of $4.1 billion and equity funds had outflows of $2.8 billion, Keon added.

“As would be expected, non-domestic equity funds accounted for the lion’s share of the net outflows at negative $2.5 billion among equity funds while for taxable bond funds investors fled from below investment-grade funds in a risk-off strategy in response to Brexit,” Keon said.

As Bank of America’s Michael Hartnett adds, Monday was “redemption day” which saw global equity fund redemptions of $9.5 billion. This was the 7th largest day of redemptions in past 10 years.

Harnett also looks at global fund flows, and finds that weekly flows showed the largest global equity outflows ($20.7bn) since Aug’15 (CNY devaluation) and largest European equity outflows ($5.3bn) since Oct’14 (end-QE3).

Still, retail may turn around and come back quickly into equity markets as Wall Street rolled to a third straight day of gains on Thursday. Stock markets have erased the bulk of their losses in the wake of Britain’s shock vote a week ago to leave the European Union that had set off the worst two-day decline for Wall Street in 10 months. “We’re reversing the ‘Brexit’ as it becomes evident that it was more of a political vote and decision than an economic decision,” …read more

Source: Stocks Near All Time High Despite 16 Straight Week Of US Mutual Fund Outflows, Historic "Redemption Day"

    

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