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Archive for the ‘Uncategorized’ Category

US Treasury Yields Hit New Record Lows

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By Tyler Durden

Finally.

With bond yields across the rest of the developed world already making new record lows every day, only the US had so far refused to take out all time lows set back in 2012. That finally changed overnight when the 10Y Treasury dropped -9 bps to 1.3784%, while the 30Y declined by the same amount, sliding as low as to 2.1914%.

The underlying dynamic for the bond demand is the same as that which has pushed all other bond yields to record lows: yields are plunging to record-low levels from the U.S. and Japan to the U.K., as a result of expectations of more QE by central banks, something which was confirmed by the US yesterday. “In the Tokyo market, there’s no interest rate, and there’s turmoil in the euro area,” said Yoshiyuki Suzuki, the head of fixed income in Tokyo at Fukoku Mutual Life Insurance Co., which has $63.4 billion in assets. “Money is escaping to the Treasury market.”

However, the specific catalyst which helped push both Bund and US TSY yields higher, was a Reuters report that contrary to what Bloomberg reported yesterday, the ECB is not currently considering buying government debt out of proportion to euro zone countries’ shareholding in the bank and the hurdle for abandoning this capital key is high.

Previously, bond markets rallied on Friday after Bloomberg reported that the ECB was considering giving up the capital key due to a shortage of German paper, which investors see as safe and have piled into in the aftermath of Britain’s vote to leave the European Union. But sources familiar with the ECB’s thinking said that several other changes would be first considered before any such move, which would be have heavy political ramifications, especially in Germany, where many are already uneasy about the ECB’s quantitative easing.

In case of shortage of papers to buy, it would first consider raising the limit on how much it can purchase of each bond issue that is not protected by collective action clauses, the sources said. Or it would amend rules about which assets it can buy to expand the eligible pool.

“As in the past, we’ll amend the rules if necessary but it’s not on the agenda now,” a Governing Council member, asking not to be named, told Reuters. “I would expect such changes to be quite technical. The capital key would be political, however.”

So, while traders await for more clarity on what the ECB will do, they have decided to simply pile into the one bond that provides more yield than virtually any other DM TSY in the world: that of the US, and as Bloomberg explained, the long-end of the UST curve outperformed in London hours, where recent sessions have seen the sector supported by large buying by Asian real money. Volumes today show more bonds trading in 30Y cash than in 2Y, says one London-based trader.

The trader reasoning, as summarizied by Bloomberg: “10Y USTs break to new all time yield …read more

Source: US Treasury Yields Hit New Record Lows

    

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Posted July 1st, 2016 in Uncategorized.

If The UK Economy Tanks, Don’t Blame Brexit

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By Tyler Durden

Central Bank Policy Rate: US vs Eurozone

Submitted by Frank Shostak via The Mises Institute,

Last Thursday, the people of Britain voted in a referendum to leave the European Union (EU). Most commentators view Britain’s exit (“Brexit”) from the European Union as bad news for economic growth in the UK and the eurozone. As a result, it is argued, the growth rate in the rest of the world will be also badly affected.

It is more likely that, whether the pace of real economic growth over time will weaken or strengthen is going to be set by the pace of expansion in the pool of real wealth.

A strengthening in the pace of economic growth implies a strengthening in the rate of growth of the pool of real wealth. Conversely, a weakening in the pace of economic growth implies a weakening in the rate of growth of the pool of real wealth.

The ability of an economy to generate a rising rate of growth of the pool of real wealth is determined by the ongoing expansion and the enhancement of the infrastructure. This permits the increase in the rate of growth of the production of goods and services to support people’s life and well-being.

The key for this is an ongoing allocation of some portions of real wealth toward the formation of capital goods (i.e., the enhancement and the expansion of the infrastructure).

NB: The allocation of real wealth here means that a portion of real wealth is channeled toward the activities that are engaged in the expansion and the enhancement of the infrastructure.

Now, if real wealth were to be directed toward the production of final goods and services only — while an inadequate amount is allocated toward the expansion and the enhancement of the infrastructure — this will amount to a consumption of capital.

Over time this is going to undermine the economy’s ability to pursue rising economic growth. In fact a prolonged neglect to allocate a sufficient amount of wealth toward the enhancement and the expansion of the infrastructure is likely to result in a stagnant or even in a declining pool of real wealth over time. This means stagnant or declining real economic growth — a fall in people’s living standard.

How Will Brexit Affect the Wealth Generation Process?

If the process of wealth generation is currently in good shape then Britain’s exit from the EU shouldn’t have any negative effect on real economic growth. This, however, might not be the case.

It is likely that the reckless monetary policy of central banks in the UK and the eurozone has inflicted a severe damage to the process of real wealth formation.

Loose monetary policies (i.e., monetary pumping and the artificial lowering of interest rates) sets in motion the diversion of real wealth from wealth generators toward non-wealth generating activities. This in turn over time weakens wealth generators ability to expand the pool of real wealth.

Since the 2008 financial crisis, following the lead of the US central bank, the central banks in the UK and the eurozone have aggressively lowered interest rates and …read more

Source: If The UK Economy Tanks, Don’t Blame Brexit

    

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Posted July 1st, 2016 in Uncategorized.

Two Union Workers In Spain Haven’t Shown Up For Work In 15 Years

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By Tyler Durden

Imagine having a job where you didn't actually show up for 15 years, but you continued to get paid – that would be a pretty amazing gig wouldn't it? Well, as it turns out, two guys in Jerez, Spain actually pulled that off.

Two men, a chauffeur and a gardener, have been collecting full pay from Jerez city council in Andalucia without putting in a single shift for the council, as part of an apparent deal with local unions.

According to the Telegraph, as registered representatives for the CGT union, the two men have the right to divide their time between their jobs and union activities, however when the council's human resources department carried out a recent audit, it found that the pair had not clocked in a single day in 2015 or 2016. Furthermore, upon contacting the two men to inquire about the findings, they said that they had not gone to work since 2001! The reason given was that the men had a “tacit deal” between the council and the union.

One has returned to work, but his union colleague presented a letter “demonstrating that he was using the accumulation of union hours not taken up by other reps.”

The CGT union leader in Jerez, Juan Gonzalez, said the council's probe was a frontal attack on union freedom”, and pointed out that union hours could legally be transferred between representatives, saying “we have 15 reps and each has 40 hours a month for union work. According to the agreement, these hours are not personalized but accumulative, and these colleagues have accumulated the hours that others did not use.” – that's a lot of union activities to be sure.

Jerez is one of Spain's most indebted local governments, owing half a billion euros to the banks the Telegraph notes. It's all good, what's a few more headcount to cover when Draghi is buying all of the debt in Europe anyway, right?

The council is also investigating three other workers suspected of taking unjustifiable amounts of leave to perform union duties. Jerez is not alone however, in February it was revealed that nearby Cadiz city hall had a had a phantom civil servant on its payroll who had not been seen at work for six years.

* * *

There really isn't much else to say except that this is good work if you can get it. It reminds us of Milton from Office space who continued to get paid due to a glitch in the payroll after he was laid off… except Milton actually kept showing up for work.

…read more

Source: Two Union Workers In Spain Haven’t Shown Up For Work In 15 Years

    

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Posted July 1st, 2016 in Uncategorized.

Workers to strike at Trump Taj Mahal casino

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Close to 1,000 workers at the Trump Taj Mahal casino will go on strike early Friday after it failed to reach a deal with union negotiators. …read more

Source: Workers to strike at Trump Taj Mahal casino

    

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Posted July 1st, 2016 in Uncategorized.

WeWork launches in Shanghai

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for latest details. …read more

Source: WeWork launches in Shanghai

    

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Posted July 1st, 2016 in Uncategorized.

The Collapse Of Western Democracy

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By Tyler Durden

Authored by Paul Craig Roberts,

Democracy no longer exists in the West. In the US, powerful private interest groups, such as the military-security complex, Wall Street, the Israel Lobby, agribusiness and the extractive industries of energy, timber and mining, have long exercised more control over government than the people. But now even the semblance of democracy has been abandoned.

In the US Donald Trump has won the Republican presidential nomination. However, Republican convention delegates are plotting to deny Trump the nomination that the people have voted him. The Republican political establishment is showing an unwillingness to accept democratic outcomes.

The people chose, but their choice is unacceptable to the establishment which intends to substitute its choice for the people’s choice.

Do you remember Dominic Strauss-Kahn? Strauss-Kahn is the Frenchman who was head of the IMF and, according to polls, the likely next president of France. He said something that sounded too favorable toward the Greek people. This concerned powerful banking interests who worried that he might get in the way of their plunder of Greece, Portugal, Spain, and Italy. A hotel maid appeared who accused him of rape. He was arrested and held without bail. After the police and prosecutors had made fools of themselves, he was released with all charges dropped. But the goal was achieved. Strauss-Kahn had to resign as IMF director and kiss goodbye his chance for the presidency of France.

Curious, isn’t it, that a woman has now appeared who claims Trump raped her when she was 13 years old.

Consider the political establishment’s response to the Brexit vote. Members of Parliament are saying that the vote is unacceptable and that Parliament has the right and responsibility to ignore the voice of the people.

The view now established in the West is that the people are not qualified to make political decisions. The position of the opponents of Brexit is clear: it simply is not a matter for the British people whether their sovereignty is given away to an unaccountable commission in Brussels.

Martin Schultz, President of the EU Parliament, puts it clearly: “It is not the EU philosophy that the crowd can decide its fate.”

The Western media have made it clear that they do not accept the people’s decision either. The vote is said to be “racist” and therefore can be disregarded as illegitimate.

Washington has no intention of permitting the British to exit the European Union. Washington did not work for 60 years to put all of Europe in the EU bag that Washington can control only to let democracy undo its achievement.

The Federal Reserve, its Wall Street allies, and its Bank of Japan and European Central Bank vassals will short the UK pound and equities, and the presstitutes will explain the decline in values as “the market’s” pronouncement that the British vote was a mistake. If Britain is actually permitted to leave, the two-year long negotiations will be used to tie the British into the EU so firmly that Britain leaves in name only.

No one with a brain believes that Europeans …read more

Source: The Collapse Of Western Democracy

    

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Posted July 1st, 2016 in Uncategorized.

The New Narrative For Earnings: Blame Brexit

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By Tyler Durden

Every quarter there is always a fallback narrative put forth as to why companies fail to meet earnings expectations, and we now have that narrative for the rest of 2016 (and perhaps through 2025): Brexit.

As we discussed yesterday, as we enter into Q2 earnings season the main focus on all earnings calls will be to what extent Brexit will impact business for the rest of the year. Will firms guide down materially due to the UK referendum, or will guidance largely not be impacted, this is going to be the main focus of analysts and investors. To wit:

the main focus (by far) will be on the CQ2 earnings season (the first few reports will hit during the week of 7/11 but the heaviest volume will be during the week of 7/18 and 7/25). The CQ2 earnings season will be particularly important as investors are eager to hear updates from CEOs/CFOs on the extent to which Brexit-related disruptions materially impacted the outlook for their businesses. If the tone on the Jul/Aug conf. calls sounds relatively similar to the Apr/May updates (i.e. Brexit is acknowledged but doesn’t dramatically change H2 guidance) that would go a long way towards alleviating investor concern. Prior to the 6/23 referendum investors were penciling in a ~$130 SPX figure for ’17 – if that number only has a couple of dollars of downside stocks will continue stabilizing.

Almost right on cue, here is Reuters today planting the seed that Brexit can now be used as an excuse for firms that need to lower guidance without any pushback.

From Reuters

Foreign exchange volatility and economic uncertainty after Britain's vote to leave the European Union have imperiled a projected profit rebound in the United States, where companies have been stuck in an earnings recession since last year.

U.S. companies doing business abroad are at particular risk because of a jump in the dollar since last week's referendum and expectations of a potential stumble in European economies.

A strong dollar and plummeting oil prices slammed U.S. corporate earnings starting in 2015, but the stabilization of crude prices and the dollar in recent months has led investors to bet on a return to modest growth starting in the third quarter.

As the second-quarter reports gets underway in the coming weeks, executives' comments about the so-called Brexit's potential effects could alter Wall Street's expectations of when the profit slump will end.

“This adds more fuel to the fire, that the so-called spurt in growth in the second-half of the year is going to be really tough to achieve,” said Synovus Trust Company Senior Portfolio Manager Daniel Morgan, who believes analysts are too optimistic.

To add to the narrative, Reuters notes that some companies such as Carnival are already warning on the impact Brexit will have on full-year earnings targets.

Some U.S. companies are already voicing caution about Brexit.

Cruise ship operator Carnival Corp (CCL.N) warned in its quarterly report on Tuesday that Britain's withdrawal from the European Union could affect global consumer confidence.

…read more

Source: The New Narrative For Earnings: Blame Brexit

    

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Posted July 1st, 2016 in Uncategorized.

What’s The Car Preference Of Millennials? Bentley – Of Course

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By Tyler Durden

As many millennials have resorted to living with their parents in order to save on expenses, it turns out that “the other half” are out driving luxury cars.

Millennials (described as ages 19-34) who aren't living at home are are choosing premium cars and SUVs as their ride of choice ABC News reports. Bentley, the luxury British automaker first noticed the shift a few years ago as millennials starting leasing and financing vehicles such as the Continental GT in 2013, and now millennials account for a stunning 8% of Bentley sales the company said.

“Millennials represent an increasingly important customer base. They are the largest potential customer group today, and their influence is greater than simply the money they have to spend. We believe that this generation's approach to life and social issues will have more impact than merely their money.” said James Pillar, Bentley's head of marketing. For Bentley, we're sure money spent buying their cars is the top ranked impact that millennials will have.

Manhattan Motorcars in New York City has sold 33 new Bentleys so far this year, eight of which were sold to millennials the dealership said.

“Millennials are looking to set themselves apart. They want to be catered to, and they want a unique experience. They want to make a statement.” said Danielle Weinstein, a salesperson with Manhattan Motorcars. Weinstein posts Bentley videos on a YouTube channel she set up to connect with millennials who have the cash to splurge on a luxury car (the average lease is about $2,400 a month). “Millennials are drawn to social media advertising. They come into the dealership to network. I know social media attracts millennials.” Weinstein added.

AutoTrader.com conducted a study of millennial car buyers and shoppers in 2013 and found that 32% of millennials said they “like to impress people with their lifestyle”, and 40% “like to show off their taste.” In addition, millennials said owning the “best brand” is important to them.

Perfect, young and materialistic – if these millennial Bentley drivers aren't already employed by a Wall Street firm, we suggest they immediately apply.

The luxury car of choice isn't just Bentley however, as Audi, Jaguar and Land Rover have all acknowledged an uptick in Millennial business.

“We've seen a 23% increase in millennials coming to the brand in the past two years,” said Loren Angelo, Audi's USA director of marketing.

Kim McCullough, the company's vice president of marketing, said “Land Rover buyers are the youngest buyers of luxury SUVs, with half being between the ages of 20-48. With the recent addition of the Jaguar F-PACE and XE, preorders for those models reflect a younger buyer.“

Millennials are choosing to primarily lease instead of buy according to Karl Brauer, a director at Kelley Blue Book. “Millennials are not interested in the pure buying model, and a lot of them don't want to buy a car for the long term. Leasing also makes owning a car more affordable,” adding that “they have to buy cars now. They've reached that life stage. …read more

Source: What’s The Car Preference Of Millennials? Bentley – Of Course

    

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Posted July 1st, 2016 in Uncategorized.

Judicial Watch Demands DOJ Inspector General Probe Into "Scandalous" Lynch-Clinton Meeting

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By Tyler Durden

The political scandal of the day was the news that on Monday evening (coincidentally just before the Benghazi report was released), Bill Clinton and US Attorney General Loretta Lynch just happened to meet on the tarmac at a Phoenix airport – totally unplanned of course. Clinton saw the attorney general and wanted to say hello, so Clinton boarded Lynch’s plane to talk for a bit. Sure, just a quick chat about the weather, his putting stroke, anything except oh, say, an update on what was about to be released on Benghazi, and especially not an update on the ongoing FBI investigation into Hillary.

“Our conversation was a great deal about his grandchildren. It was primarily social and about our travels. He mentioned the golf he played in Phoenix, and he mentioned travels he’d had in West Virginia. There was no discussion of any matter pending for the department or any matter pending for any other body. There was no discussion of Benghazi, no discussion of the State Department emails, by way of example” Lynch told reporters.

While Lynch claims it was a completely random encounter with Hillary Clinton’s husband, even Barack Obama’s former advisor David Axelrod admitted that the meeting created “bad optics”

I take @LorettaLynch & @billclinton at their word that their convo in Phoenix didn’t touch on probe. But foolish to create such optics.

— David Axelrod (@davidaxelrod) June 30, 2016

Sensing an opportunity to drive home a point about the Clintons’ lack of judgment, Trump quickly pounced on the meeting.

“It is an amazing thing,” Trump said during an interview on the Mike Gallagher Show, noting the pair met on an airplane at the Phoenix airport. “It was really a sneak. It was something they didn’t want publicized, as I understand it,” Trump said, regarding the meeting Monday night. “I think it’s so terrible; I think it’s so horrible. I think it’s one of the big stories of this week, of this month, of this year,” Trump continued.

“How bad a judgment is it for him or for her to do this? Who would do this?” Trump asked.

it won’t end there. Moments ago, conservative watchdog organization Judicial Watch today requested that the DOJ’s Office of the Inspector General investigate the meeting yesterday between Bill Clinton and Attorney General Loretta Lynch:

Attorney General Loretta Lynch met privately with former President William J. Clinton on board a parked private plane on the west side of Sky Harbor International Airport in Phoenix, Arizona on June 29, 2016, according to multiple press reports.

President Clinton is the spouse of Hillary Rodham Clinton, the former Secretary of State, who is purportedly the subject of a national security crime investigation pertaining to the mishandling of national defense information processed by Mrs. Clinton’s personal server during her tenure as secretary.

Additionally, there are press reports that a federal public corruption investigation is on-going concerning conflicts of interest and abuse of official government office involving the financial “commitments” to …read more

Source: Judicial Watch Demands DOJ Inspector General Probe Into "Scandalous" Lynch-Clinton Meeting

    

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Posted July 1st, 2016 in Uncategorized.

Busted Lambo Driver To Cop: "My Shoes Are Worth More Than Your Wages"

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By Tyler Durden

Aleem Iqbal calls himself “Lord Aleem”, and works for his father's luxury car hire firm. Iqbal enjoys showing off the access he has to expensive cars, often boasting about the life he lives on social media – what else would we expect from someone who has a nickname for himself.

According to the Birmingham Mail, hours after taking delivery of a £550,000 Lamborghini Aventador SV Roadster, Iqbal was pulled over by police in Digbeth, England. What transpired after the police stopped Iqbal is the type of spoiled rich kid nonsense that will make blood shoot out of your eyes.

Iqbal goes over to the police, apparently filming everything with his phone and proceeds to run his mouth without a care in the world.

“Why you lookin' at me? Trust me bro my shoes are probably more worth more than your ***** wages“

After the police for some reason just drive away, Iqbal gets the crowd going a bit by boasting that he never even received a ticket.

“Ah he never gave me no paperwork – what's he gonna do?“

Before driving away he promises that the encounter should be on YouTube that night.

* * *

As Jaopnik's David Tracy concludes so eloquently, that’s just a dick move on so many levels, and it ranks among the worst aspects of car culture – the entitled rich kid in a supercar who needs to make clear to everyone how much better he is than the rest of us.

Hours later, he realized it was indeed a 'dick move” tweeting his apology.. Iqbal justified being an asshole by saying he’s just 21, so that makes everything ok.

I am not perfect. Nor are you. We can only live and learn and better ourselves. You have to remember I’m 21 and still have lots to learn.

— Lord Aleem (@aleem_official) June 28, 2016

* * *

Iqbal’s spokesperson then released a statement saying that Iqbal apologizes, and tries to again justify Iqbal’s behavior by saying the he was “harassed” – of course he was.

Having had time to reflect on what happened and having spoken to his family, Aleem would and also like to apologise to the police officers involved for the way the situation escalated.

Aleem would like to stress that what wasn’t shown in the video was the police officers involved harassing him and forcing him to pull over for ‘having cars follow him’.

Yes, Aleem admits he can get carried away from time to time and said: ‘I’m tired of being harassed by police just because I’m young and drive nice cars. Although that doesn’t excuse my behaviour towards the police officers in the video, I hope this paints a clearer picture as to why I reacted the way that I did.’


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