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By Tyler Durden

Submitted by Ambassador M.K.Bhadrakumar via Asia Times,

If there is a tide in the affairs of men, as Brutus said in William Shakespeare’s play Julius Caesar, it must be the same in the affairs of nations, too.

Less than a week ago, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization was creeping toward the borders of Russia and relentlessly provoking it, but the tide abruptly turned on Friday. Eurasian politics will never be the same again after Brexit.

Only last Wednesday, while addressing the Russian Duma in Moscow, President Vladimir Putin took Russia’s political elites into confidence that the nation was facing once again a menace on its borders similar to the Nazi invasion exactly 75 years ago.

However, two days later in Tashkent, Putin spoke calmly and in a detached tone, when asked for his reaction to Brexit. But he hinted he is insightful enough to recognize the opportunity brought up by fate. Putin said:

• Brexit will have “consequences” for both Britain and Europe as a whole and will inevitably have “global effects… both positive and negative”;
• “Time will tell whether there will be more pluses or minuses”;
• Brexit will impact market and currencies, but a “global upheaval” is unlikely;
• Apropos sanctions against Russia, if EU countries are ready for “constructive dialogue,” Moscow will be “not only ready – we seek it and we will respond positively to positive initiatives”;
• Having said that, Russia has limits since the onus on the implementation of the Minsk accord on Ukraine lies with Kiev and “without them, we can do nothing.”

Putin had most recently visited Greece, an EU country closest to Russia. Significantly, in the words of the Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras, Brexit “confirms a deep political crisis, an identity crisis and a crisis in the European strategy.”

This would also be echoing the broad swathe of Russian opinion.

The Russian commentators on the whole feel elated that the Brexit vote will inexorably lead to a weakening of the EU sanctions. Indeed, they expect a significant improvement in Russia’s relations with Britain.

London is a favorite playpen of Russian oligarchs and Moscow elites. Boris Johnson, the UK’s most likely post-Brexit prime minister, has been a vocal supporter of warm relations with Russia, and the Moscow elites regard him to be an unusual politician who has no cold war mentality and even more interestingly, has no foreign policy mentality, either.

Clearly, the surmise among the Russian analysts is that Washington will be hard-pressed to impose its trans-Atlantic leadership in the same manner it used to, and the EU itself will be probably unable to reach a consensus on extending the sanctions against Russia beyond the end of the year. These are Russia’s best bets.

However, Putin’s cautious words suggest that Moscow will keep its fingers crossed as to how Washington could afford to permit Brexit to be taken to its logical conclusion and simply allow the British people to leave the EU. Quite obviously, Putin neatly sidestepped any talk of European disintegration.

On the other hand, Moscow cannot be unaware that Euroskepticism is a pervasive phenomenon in Europe. If …read more

Source: Brexit: Russia’s Comfort Level Rises, US Loses Eurasian Plot

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By Tyler Durden

It appears The Brits may have dodged more than a bullet in their decision to leave The EU. The foreign ministers of France and Germany are reportedly due to reveal a blueprint to effectively do away with individual member states in what is being described as an “ultimatum.” As The Express reports, the shockingly predictable final solution to Europe's Brexit-driven existential crisis is an apparently long-held plan to morph the continent’s countries into one giant superstate. The radical proposals mean EU countries will lose the right to have their own army, criminal law, taxation system or central bank, with all those powers being transferred to Brussels. According to the Daily Express, the nine-page report has “outraged” some EU leaders.

The plans for 'a closer European Union' have been branded an attempt to create a 'European superstate', as The Daily Mail reports,

Germany's foreign minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier and his French counterpart Jean-Marc Ayrault today presented a proposal for closer EU integration based on three key areas – internal and external security, the migrant crisis, and economic cooperation.

But the plans have been described as an 'ultimatum' in Poland, with claims it would mean countries transfer their armies, economic systems and border controls to the EU.

Controversially member states would also lose what few controls they have left over their own borders, including the procedure for admitting and relocating refugees.

The Express reports that the plot has sparked fury and panic in Poland – a traditional ally of Britain in the fight against federalism – after being leaked to Polish news channel TVP Info.

The public broadcaster reports that the bombshell proposal will be presented to a meeting of the Visegrad group of countries – made up of Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovakia – by German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier later today.

Excerpts of the nine-page report were published today as the leaders of Germany, France and Italy met in Berlin for Brexit crisis talks.

In the preamble to the text the two ministers write: “Our countries share a common destiny and a common set of values ??that give rise to an even closer union between our citizens. We will therefore strive for a political union in Europe and invite the next Europeans to participate in this venture.”

Responding to the plot Polish Foreign Minister Witold Waszczykowski raged: “This is not a good solution, of course, because from the time the EU was invented a lot has changed.

“The mood in European societies is different. Europe and our voters do not want to give the Union over into the hands of technocrats.

“Therefore, I want to talk about this, whether this really is the right recipe right now in the context of a Brexit.”

There are deep divides at the heart of the EU at the moment over how to proceed with the project in light of the Brexit vote.

Some figures have cautioned against trying to force through further political integration, warning that to do so against the wishes …read more

Source: EU Officials To Unveil ‘Ultimatum’ Blueprint As Final Solution For European Super-State

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Pepsi initially ditched its diet recipe that replaced aspartame with sucralose, but it didn’t go over well with Diet Pepsi loyalists so now it’s bringing the original recipe back. …read more

Source: Diet Pepsi brings aspartame back

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By Tyler Durden

Submitted by David Stockman via Contra Corner blog,

During Friday’s bloodbath I heard a CNBC anchor lady assuring her (scant) remaining audience that Brexit wasn’t a big sweat. That’s because it is purportedly a political crisis, not a financial one.

Presumably in the rarified canyons of Wall Street, politics doesn’t matter much. After all, when things get desperate enough, Washington caves and does “whatever it takes” to get the stock averages moving upward again.

Here’s a news flash. That’s all about to change.

The era of Bubble Finance was enabled by a political abdication nearly 50 years ago. But as Donald Trump rightly observed in the wake of Brexit, the voters are about to take back their governments, meaning that the financial elites of the world are in for a rude awakening.

To be sure, the apparent lesson of the first TARP vote when the bailout was rejected by the House in September 2008 was that politics didn’t matter so much.

Wall Street’s 800 point hissy fit was all it took to prostrate the politicians. Indeed, the presumptive free market party then domiciled in the White House quickly shed its Adam Smith neckties and forced the congressional rubes from the red states to walk the plank a second time in order to reverse the decision.

There was a crucial predicate for this classic crony capitalist capture of the authority and purse of the state, however, that should not be overlooked. Namely, that in the mid-cycle period of the world’s 20-year experiment in central bank driven Bubble Finance the rubes had not yet come to fully appreciate that they were getting the short end of the stick.

Indeed, the earlier phases of the bubble era witnessed an enormous inflation of residential housing prices. For instance, between Greenspan’s arrival at the Fed in August 1987 and the housing bubble peak in 2007, the value of residential housing rose from $5.5 trillion to $22.5 trillion or by 4X.

The greatest extent of the housing bubble occurred in the bicoastal precincts, of course. But it did lift handsomely the value of 50 million owner occupied homes in the flyover zone, as well.

Accordingly, the latter did not yet see that the new regime was stacked in favor of the top 10% of the economic and wealth ladder, which owns 85% of the non-housing financial assets. Nor was it yet evident as to the degree to which massive money printing under conditions of Peak Debt almost exclusively stimulates Wall Street speculation, not main street production, jobs, incomes and spending.

In any event, by the eve of the great financial crisis, the GOP was actually controlled by the racketeers of the Beltway and the Wall Street gamblers, not the red state voters who had elected it.

In fact, Goldman’s Sach’s plenipotentiary to Washington, Hank Paulson, was in complete command of the elected side of government. At the same time, the Bush White House had populated the central banking branch of the state with proponents of monetary activism, who were more than ready to authorize “heroic” measures …read more

Source: The End Game Of Bubble Finance – Political Revolt

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By Tyler Durden

For those 17-year-old hedge fund managers used to BTFD on hopes corporate buybacks will “have their back” and provide the bid on which momentum-chasing HFT algos will piggyback, we have some bad news and some worse news.

The bad news is that we are entering yet another quiet period for buybacks. This means that for the next 45 days, the biggest – and supposedly only – buyer of stocks will be mostly out of the market, and bank buyback desks will not be able to provide much needed support during distressed (read: more sellers than buyers) times.

The worse news is that even without the buyback blackout period, following months of surging stock repurchasing activity by corporate treasurers…

… buybacks have now ground to a virtual halt.

According to TrimTabs, stock buyback announcements by U.S. companies have fallen sharply, sending a longer-term negative signal for U.S. equities.

“Corporate America announced $2.8 trillion in stock buybacks in the past five years, and these buybacks have provided a key source of fuel for the bull market,” said David Santschi, chief executive officer of TrimTabs. “Corporate actions this year suggest this support is going to diminish.”

In a research note, TrimTabs reported that U.S. companies have announced a mere $11.8 billion in stock buybacks in June through Friday, June 24. This month’s pace is the lowest this year. Only four companies have announced plans to repurchase at least $1 billion this month.

“Even if some of the too-big-to-fails roll out buybacks after the release of the second part of the Fed’s stress test results, this month’s volume is likely to be among the lowest in the past three years,” noted Santschi.

TrimTabs also explained that stock buyback announcements by U.S. companies have totaled $291.7 billion this year, which is 32% lower than the $432.0 billion in the same period last year.

“The sharp decline in buyback announcements suggests corporate leaders are becoming more cautious, and it doesn’t bode well for the U.S. stock market,” said Santschi.

It is unclear if the dramatic slowdown is due to a shift in corporate strategy, due to a desire by the C-suite to stockpile cash, or simply because creditors are no longer willing to fund bonds whose “use of proceeds” is to buyback stock, no matter how high the yield.

In any case, the sudden disappearance of this cost-indiscriminate, and biggest by far, stock buyer in the market will be certain to have a substantial impact on risk pricing in the coming weeks and months; just in case the market didn’t have enough things to worry about…

…read more

Source: Some Bad And Some Worse News For Stock Buybacks

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By Tyler Durden

Submitted by Eugen von Bohm-Bawerk via Bawerk.net,

With global attention focused on BREXIT calamity, potentially more important questions are being overlooked, and especially in the South China Sea where storms are currently brewing between China and a range of littoral states for strategic control of territorial waters.

To be clear, our long term geostrategic position remains unchanged; China will gradually secure control of the South China and East China Seas through its so called ‘nine dash’ line, with the eventual battle for geo-maritime ascendency playing out in the Indian Ocean into the 2030s between China on the one hand, and America on the other. That much remains inexorable, but it’s what happens along the way to that eventual outcome where all the residual risks remains.

The most proximate trigger currently relates to pending legal rulings in The Hague that’s almost certain to rule in favour of Philippines legal claims towards the Spratly Islands. We’ll leave all the legal complexities aside, where this is essentially adjudicating on the technical basis of UNCLOS claims rather sovereignty per se. But suffice to say, China will not only reject the findings, it will up the ante with sabre rattling and maritime movements around the Spratly’s with further land reclamation around Scarborough Shoal. It’s also possible China will initiative targeted sanctions against Manila (a nice welcome message for the incoming President Duterte) to prove its point. Anyone willing to stand in the way of Chinese geopolitical pull, will be pushed off the edge of a ‘geo-economic atoll’, at least when it comes to creeping Chinese consolidation of its nine dash line.

Right on cue, the Chinese have just leant heavily on Cambodia to retreat a joint ASEAN statement against Beijing’ claims in the South China Sea, as a classic Chinese tactic to keep any disputes purely on a bilateral divide and rule basis with Vietnam, Indonesia, Philippines, and to a lesser extent, Malaysia. Coincidently, this is where China has all the economic leverage (see chart). That will take some of the heat off the pending ASEAN Regional Forum, not to mention Chinese G20 meetings in September. But the overall rules of the game are clear: If or when, China faces any geopolitical opposition to its maritime claims, it won’t hesitate to wield a large geo-economic stick to beat smaller starts into submission. Needless to say, exactly the same story applies closer to North East Asian home when it comes to maritime tussles with Japan over the Senkakus, and South Korea over Takeshema. China will continue to divide and rule competing littoral states, using geo-economic strength to rail through new geo-maritime facts on the ground.

The real question isn’t whether Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, Philippines, Indonesia or Malaysia occasionally play up and push back against Chinese actions, but ultimately where the US is going to draw the line to put a serious finger in China’s ‘nine dash’ dyke? While it’s true America is overseeing a fundamental reboot of the 7^th fleet, shifting 60% of its naval and maritime …read more

Source: South China Sea: Storm In A "Far Larger" Indian Ocean Teacup

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By Tyler Durden

When it comes to being direct and offering up some truth, one can rest assured that Jim Rogers is a prime candidate to do both.

In an interview with Yahoo! Finance, the legendary investor had some candid and quite unnerving things to say about the global market in the aftermath of Brexit.

“This is going to be worse than any bear market that you've seen in your lifetime. 2008 was pretty bad because of debt, well the debt all over the world is much, much higher now. Stocks in the US for instance have been going sideways for 18 months, 24 months. That's called distribution by many people, so when you have distribution for a year and a half, it usually leads to bad things.”

If that was too upbeat, Rogers unveils his bear scenario:

“The bear scenario, the bad scenario is that Scotland now leaves and takes the oil money, the city of London gets whacked by Europe, they lose a lot of income. The UK already has huge international debts, and it has balance of trade problems, budget problems, so the bear case is the pound disappears and England becomes Spain, or Poland, or Italy or something.“

“It won't happen anytime soon but the deterioration will continue, it makes stocks go down a lot. Remember, stock markets are anticipating the future, they see that happening it will now lead to many other separatist moments in the EU. This is going to encourage a lot of separatist movement, I'm not saying it's good or bad I'm just telling you what's going to happen, or what the bear case is, that if all that happens we all should be very worried.”

Regarding where EU will be five years from now, Rogers doesn't believe it will even exist:

“The EU as we know it now will not exist, the Euro as we know it will not exist.“

On how to play this market now,

“I'll tell you what I'm doing, people have to make their own decisions, going into this I'm long the US Dollar, I'm short US stocks, I own some Chinese shares, I own agriculture around the world. These are things that might do well no matter what happens going forward. These are going to be perilous times, I hope I get it right.”

…read more

Source: Jim Rogers: Brexit Blowback "Worse Than Any Bear Market You’ve Ever Seen"

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By SRSrocco

By the SRSrocco Report,

According to the figures in the 2016 World Silver Survey, Americans now lead the world in physical silver investment. This is quite an interesting change as India has been the number one market for silver bar demand in the past.

For example, Indians purchased more than 100 million oz (Moz) of silver bar in 2008 of the approximate world total of 125 Moz. However, silver bar demand is only one segment of total global physical silver investment. There is also Official Coin demand.

If we look at the data for 2015, India continues to rank as the largest source of silver bar investment int he world:

India purchased 82.5 Moz of silver bar in 2015 while the U.S. ranked second with 51.8 Moz, Europe came in third with 12.7 Moz and China placed last at 3.8 Moz. (2016 World Silver Survey, pg. 22 & 23).

The United States experienced a huge increase in silver bar demand in 2015 due to the inclusion of “Private rounds and bars” now in the data. So, all private silver bar and rounds sold are lumped into the Silver Bar category.

Even though India ranked first place when it comes to silver bar demand, if we include Official Coin sales, the U.S. is now the global leader of physical silver investment:

In 2015, the U.S. Mint sold 48.6 Moz of Official Silver coins while India ranked fifth at 8.9 Moz. If we add silver bar demand to these figures, the U.S. was the leader at 100.4 Moz while India came in second at 91.4 Moz. (2016 World Silver Survey, pg. 25). The rest of the world accounted for the remaining 100.5 Moz of the total 292.3 Moz of Silver Bar & Coin demand.

I could not break down Silver Bar & Coin demand in the ‘Rest of World” category because there isn’t enough data. The World Silver Survey’s do a much better job than the CPM Group’s Silver Yearbook in reporting silver investment figures. However, they only publish the amount of Silver Coins sold by each of the Official mints, not the actual demand.

There is no way of knowing how many U.S. Silver Eagles end up in foreign hands, or how many Canadian Maples or Australian Kangaroos are purchased by Americans. The data is not that accurate. However, I do believe Indians purchased the overwhelming majority of their own Official Silver coins.

Furthermore, the Silver Bar & Coin demand of 100.4 Moz for the United States may be quite conservative. Why? Because, Americans buy a heck of a lot more foreign Official Silver Coins to more than make up for the amount of U.S. Silver Eagles exported abroad. We must remember, Americans don’t have to pay a vat tax when they buy silver.

What is also interesting about the data is that China ranked fourth behind Europe …read more

Source: Americans Are Now The Top Silver Investors In The World

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By Tyler Durden

Earlier this month, Nomura came out with fresh downgrades to McDonald's, Domino's, Wendy's, and Papa John's, and all of the notes started with the exact same sentence: “Our downgrade is predicated on multiple factors, including slowing in the US restaurant industry same-store sales trends during Q2.“

Nomura downgraded those restaurants for precisely the same reasons that market research firm NPD Group points out, which is that the growth in visits to fast food restaurants has come to a complete standstill. As the WSJ reports, visits to fast food restaurants had been growing at a quarterly rate of 2% since September 2015, but haven't grown at all in March, April or May.

CEO's are confirming the slowdown, as Clifford Hudson, CEO of Sonic Corp. told investors that the consumer as become “more guarded”, and is even more sensitive to prices than just a few months ago. Wendy's CEO reiterated Hudson's comments, saying “the consumer does continue to be cautious“, adding that “it has been hard to really pinpoint what's driving that.” Well, allow us to take a shot at that one: the economy has created low paying jobs during the “recovery”, and those lower wage workers are as cost burdened as ever as they pay more and more of their income toward rent – that would be a good place to begin to look for answers.

As NPD restaurant analyst Bonnie Riggs points out “that's a red flag because it's been an area of growth and it's 80% of the industry.” Indeed, but not only that, it's a red flag because when consumers feel uncertain about their financial futures, a pullback in discretionary spend is the first place to pull back and save money.

For Tracy Schwartz, a 29 year old part-time receptionist, saving money is precisely what she is trying to do by eating more at home as opposed to going out. After losing a full-time job five months ago, Schwartz said “I needed to figure out ways to save money“, so she began eating prepared meals from supermarkets and clipping coupons.

With it being more expensive to eat out than it is at home, it's easy to see how any slight shift in consumer confidence (or ability to pay) would lead to a significant pullback in restaurant spending.

And of course as rates are being driven to near record lows, not allowing for savers to earn much income at all, those that are retired have become quite careful with how money is being spent.

“I retired early and I'm not getting Social Security yet, but I and a lot of people my age are afraid of benefits changing before we get there. Right now I have short-term savings to get me by until I'm able to draw Social Security but I don't feel confident in what I can count on.” said Diana Martin, a 57 year old retired pharmaceutical sales executive.

Martin noted that the bill at a fast-food chain she frequented with her son used to amount to $12, now those same …read more

Source: Another Red Flag: Growth In Fast Food Visits Has Hit A Wall

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By Tyler Durden

The US Treasury yield curve has collapsed to its flattest since Nov 2007… just before the US economy officially slumped into recession…

“There can’t be a recession… the yield curve is not inverted…”

Perhaps US banks are starting to realize the inevitable also?

Charts: Bloomberg

…read more

Source: The Last Time Bonds Were Here, The Recession Started

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