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By Tyler Durden

If anyone needed another indicator that global trade is collapsing, look no further than the latest Port Authority of New York and New Jersey report on loaded imports for May.

On Tuesday the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey reported that May loaded imports fell to 268,861 twenty-foot equivalent units, down 4.7% y/y. The total volume of containers passing through the port fell by 6.1% in May as well. Additionally, other major ports saw y/y declines as well. As the WSJ reports, loaded import volumes fell 2.3% y/y in May at the Port of Virginia, and total volumes were down 4.7%. At the port of Savannah, the East Coast's second largest port of entry for goods after New York, loaded imports fell 5% y/y, while total throughput was down 7.3% the Georgia Ports Authority said.

With imports imploding, ocean shipping lines have been reducing the number of regular service calls in recent months, a clear indicator that they believe demand will remain weak for the foreseeable future until the new school year begins, which is typically when imports peak. However, that may not be the case this year says Ben Hackett, CEO of Hackett Associates, LLC, a research firm.

“The peak season has disappeared. Carriers have already taken out capacity, and if there was a strong peak season coming, they wouldn't do that. It's partly overall trade declining, but it's also that importers simply bought too much.” Hackett said.

Said otherwise, demand has slumped and companies have too much inventory as it is – which is precisely what we showed earlier this month when we reported that wholesale inventories had the biggest monthly jump in 10 months, with sales disappointing.

The absolute spread between inventory and sales continues to remain wide

And although the inventory-to-sales ratio did drop modestly in April, the only time this ratio was higher was in the immediate aftermath of Lehman

* * *

Just when the “everything is fine” narrative was on its last legs…

…read more

Source: Imports Collapse At East Coast Ports

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By Tyler Durden

Submitted by Robert Gore via Straight Line Logic blog,

Coercion is inseparable from corruption. When a group coerces with impunity, it steals from, lies to, defrauds, and enslaves the subjugated. The dominant group invariably develops a morally comforting ideology of its superiority and the subjugated’s inferiority. Such relationships are the essence of corruption.

Every square inch on the planet is subject to the jurisdiction of one or more coercive regimes, with their attendant corruption and fraud. Trillions of dollars, euros, pounds, and yen, et al., are extracted from the productive and diverted to governments, who buy political support. Trillions more are borrowed. Central banks issue fiat debt units backed only by laws mandating their acceptance and extract funding for governments via the hidden tax of debt depreciation and the hidden theft of debt monetization and interest rate suppression. Regulation allows governments to reward cronies and extort and terrorize the unfavored. Perpetual wars benefit militaries and those who supply the armaments, with part of their profits recycled to those championing war. This is pervasive, legal corruption. One can only guess at the extent of sub rosa criminality, which may dwarf it.

Last week’s Brexit vote, in particular financial markets’ reaction, underscore the corruption and fraud, and the inevitability of its failure. Brexit is a victory for Britain’s honest producers; those who work in districts far removed from The City, London’s financial precinct. They will be freed from onerous European Union mismanagement, bureaucracy, regulations, and taxes that have contributed to Europe’s economic stagnation, dearth of innovation, and persistently high unemployment, especially among its youth. The European Central Bank’s debt monetization and negative interest rates, while obscuring the sorry state of the European economy, have only made it sorrier. Chronic debt issuance has left many European governments, and their banks, which own much of that debt, one economic or financial crisis away from insolvency.

British voters chose to free themselves from the EU albatross, although they will still be plagued by numerous home-grown albatrosses. The pound, euro, equity markets, and oil plunged, while perceived safe havens gold, the dollar, yen, and US Treasury debt rose. (The yen is not really a safe haven, but much of the world’s “carry” trades—borrowing to fund nominally higher yielding, but risky speculations—are funded at low Japanese interest rates. When those highly leveraged trades go south, margin calls create a demand for yen to repay the underlying loans.) There were telling details amidst the carnage. Continental equity markets, particularly those of Spain and Italy and their banks, suffered far larger percentage drops than the British stock market. The British, were they to remain in the EU, would be expected to help support the Europe’s southern tier.

When the high and mighty sing the same tune—Great Britain needs the EU more than the EU needs the British—the opposite is assuredly true. The British economy has outperformed most of Europe’s sluggards. Trying to get a fix on large banks is always a crap shoot—their financial statements are usually next to useless—but it appears that …read more

Source: Rotten To The Core

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By George Washington

A new poll by Marketplace-Edison finds that 71% of Americans – including “Americans from across the economic and political spectrum” – think the economy is rigged.

They’re right …

They’re also right about how broken and totally corrupt our political system has become …

…read more

Source: 71% of Americans Think the Economy is “Rigged” … They’re RIGHT

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By Tyler Durden

Authored by Paul Craig Roberts,

In our time to be truthful is to be provocative. To write provocatively leaves little room for error or mistatement as today’s euphemism terms it. I could shill for the establishment and be wrong 98% of the time and nothing ever would be said about it. But there is no forgiveness for a provocative truth-teller.

You have open inquiring minds and you want to know. Your motives are not to protect your illusions and delusions or to reinforce your emotional needs. This is why I write for you.

If no one knows or respects truth, the world is lost. But it only takes a few to change the world. The cultural anthopologist Margaret Mead said: “Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world; indeed, it’s the only thing that ever has.”

Change can be for better or worse. President Reagan and a committed few overcame the resistance of the CIA and military-security complex and reduced tensions among nuclear powers by negotiating the end of the Cold War with Soviet leader Gorbachev. During the reign of the last three US presidents, a few neoconservatives resurrected the nuclear tensions and took them to a higher level than at the peak of the Cold War.

There are hopeful signs that the neoconservative drive to World War III can be derailed. It seems that finally the Russians have caught on that America is not the Holy Grail but a government reminiscent in its aggression of Nazi Germany. Hopefully, Russian countermeasures will make even the crazed neocons think twice.

The British people, or rather a majority of those who voted, surprised the Establishment, which was confident of the success of its propaganda, by voting to save their ancient and distinguished country, the font of liberty, from disappearing into the EU, a dictatorship ruled by unaccountable appointees. The British had enough of that with kings and decided that the future did not lie in going backward. The British vote to exit the EU could bring the unintended consequence of unravelling the EU and NATO, thus reducing Washington’s ability to foment war.

Americans need to decide that they, like the British, do not appreciate being led backward to worse times.

The Clintons and the Republican Senator from Texas, Phil Gramm, led America back to Robber Baron days by deregulating the financial system. http://content.time.com/time/specials/packages/article/0,28804,1877351_1877350_1877330,00.html

The senator was rewarded with a multi-million dollar banking job for overturning Great Depression era legislation that made financial capitalism workable. Americans need to understand that capitalists do not care if capitalism works for you as long as it works for them.

The collapse of the Soviet Union, due to the arrest of Gorbachev by hardline elements in the Communist Party, gave rise to the American Neoconservatives, a double handful of people closely tied to the Israeli government. These few people have involved America, for Israel’s benefit, in 15 years of warfare that has destroyed seven counries, with the cost to Americans of approximately $7 trillion dollars, according to Joseph …read more

Source: "The British Woke Up!" Paul Craig Roberts Asks "Can The Americans?"

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By Tyler Durden

Submitted by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.com,

In my article 'Brexit: Global Trigger Event, Fake Out Or Something Else?', published before the U.K. referendum vote, I outlined numerous reasons why I believed the Brexit was likely to pass. As far as I know, I was one of very few analysts that stuck to my call of a successful Brexit right up until the day of the referendum instead of slowly backing away as the pressure of conflicting polls increased. My prediction was verified that evening.

In my post-Brexit commentary, which can be read here, I then outlined why so many analysts in the mainstream and even in the liberty movement were caught completely unaware by the referendum results. Today, however, I now see hundreds of analysts using the same talking points I argued before the Brexit, but still missing the first and most VITAL underlying truth. The core reason why I was able to discern the Brexit outcome was because I accepted the reality that the Brexit does not hurt globalists — in the long run, it actually helps them.

Now, I fully understand the excitement surrounding this event. For many people it was a complete surprise because they assumed that international financiers and the ever-pervasive global elites would do anything to stop it from happening. It feels like a kind of revolution; a pointy stick in the eye of the beast. While I applaud the people of the U.K. for their ongoing battle for sovereignty, I can assure you that the Brexit is NOT an obstacle to the plans of globalists.

What is rather amazing to me is the number of people that, before the referendum vote, were arguing that the elites would “never allow” the Brexit to continue and were thoroughly convinced they would use their influence to disrupt it. Now, in the face of a successful vote, those same people now argue that the elites had no influence over the Brexit, and do not benefit from its passage.

I would remind readers that it was actually “pro-EU” globalist puppet David Cameron himself that presented the prospect of a referendum to exit the EU. While some may argue this was bungling on the part of Cameron, I think this is a rather foolish notion. Cameron does what he is told like every other elitist owned politician. Furthermore, the behavior of internationalists leading up to the Brexit was rather strange, hinting to me that they were preparing for a Brexit surprise.

Globalist financiers like George Soros jumped into the markets and bet in favor of stocks going negative, indicating prior knowledge. Hilariously, Soros' advisers are now playing damage control by claiming that Soros “lost money” on bets on the English Pound. While they admit he did “make profits” on all of his other investments due to the Brexit, they will not say what the magnitude of those investments were, nor have they provided evidence supporting any of the information they have given …read more

Source: Brexit Aftermath – Here’s What Will Happen Next

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By Tyler Durden

Over three years ago we wrote “At $72.8 Trillion, Presenting The Bank With The Biggest Derivative Exposure In The World” in which we introduced a bank few until then had imagined was the riskiest in the world.

As we explained then “the bank with the single largest derivative exposure is not located in the US at all, but in the heart of Europe, and its name, as some may have guessed by now, is Deutsche Bank. The amount in question? €55,605,039,000,000. Which, converted into USD at the current EURUSD exchange rate amounts to $72,842,601,090,000…. Or roughly $2 trillion more than JPMorgan’s.”

So here we are three years later, when not only did Deutsche Bank just flunk the Fed’s stress test for the second year in a row, but moments ago in a far more damning analysis, none other than the IMF disclosed that Deutsche Bank poses the greatest systemic risk to the global financial system, explicitly stating that the German bank “appears to be the most important net contributor to systemic risks.”

Yes, the same bank whose stock price hit a record low just two days ago.

Here is the key section in the report:

Domestically, the largest German banks and insurance companies are highly interconnected. The highest degree of interconnectedness can be found between Allianz, Munich Re, Hannover Re, Deutsche Bank, Commerzbank and Aareal bank, with Allianz being the largest contributor to systemic risks among the publicly-traded German financials. Both Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank are the source of outward spillovers to most other publicly-listed banks and insurers. Given the likelihood of distress spillovers between banks and life insurers, close monitoring and continued systemic risk analysis by authorities is warranted.

Among the G-SIBs, Deutsche Bank appears to be the most important net contributor to systemic risks, followed by HSBC and Credit Suisse. In turn, Commerzbank, while an important player in Germany, does not appear to be a contributor to systemic risks globally. In general, Commerzbank tends to be the recipient of inward spillover from U.S. and European G-SIBs. The relative importance of Deutsche Bank underscores the importance of risk management, intense supervision of G-SIBs and the close monitoring of their cross-border exposures, as well as rapidly completing capacity to implement the new resolution regime.

The IMF also said the German banking system poses a higher degree of possible outward contagion compared with the risks it poses internally. This means that in the global interconnected game of counterparty dominoes, if Deutsche Bank falls, everyone else will follow.

Notwithstanding moderate cross-border exposures on aggregate, the banking sector is a potential source of outward spillovers. Network analysis suggests a higher degree of outward spillovers from the German banking sector than inward spillovers. In particular, Germany, France, the U.K. and the U.S. have the highest degree of outward spillovers as measured by the average percentage of capital loss of other banking systems due to banking sector shock in the source country.

The IMF concluded that Germany needs to urgently examine whether its bank resolution, i.e., …read more

Source: "Deutsche Bank Poses The Greatest Risk To The Global Financial System": IMF

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By Tyler Durden

In addition to the recently quite vocal George Soros and Stanley Druckenmiller, one republican hedge fund billionaire who has been warning for years about not only the looming trouble for the market but also a calamitous collapse of the establishment, is Elliott’s Paul Singer, who has been advocating gold as insurance against just this inevitable systemic collapse. Singer has also been an outspoken opponent of Trump, having supported Florida Sen. Marco Rubio in what was once a 17-person race for the GOP nomination. Singer most recently gave $1 million in April to the Our Principles PAC, which was part of the campaign to stop Trump.

However it was not unti today, one day after Trump revealed the full extent of his trade program, that Singer lashed out and revealed the full extent of his loathing for Trump.

During a discussion at the Aspen Ideas Festival in Colorado, Singer told CNBC that “the most impactful of the economic policies that I recall him coming out for are these anti-trade policies,” Singer said “And I think if he actually stuck to those policies and gets elected president, it’s close to a guarantee of a global depression, widespread global depression.“

Does that make him a Hillary supporter? No. When asked who he would pick between Hillary and Donald, Paul’s response: “none of the above.”

Billionaire Paul Singer: If Trump elected, a “global depression” is “close to a guarantee” https://t.co/OYXmND9wOR pic.twitter.com/PqPbI93sDU

— CNBC Now (@CNBCnow) June 29, 2016

Stepping away from politics, Singer also shared his view on Brexit, which differed from most of his peers, and said the UK’s decision was good for Britain because the “EU is a failed experiment.”

Singer: long term, “Brexit” good for Britain, EU is a failed experiment.

— Kelly Evans (@Kelly_Evans) June 29, 2016

Perhaps the question these days, with both neo-Keynesian economics and monetarism failing abjectly, is what isn’t?

…read more

Source: Paul Singer: "Donald Trump Will Cause A Widespread Global Depression"

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By Tyler Durden

Following James Traub's mind-numbingly-elitist rebuttal of the democratic rights of “we, the people” in favor of allowing “they, the elite” to ensure the average joe doesn't run with scissors, “It's time for the elites to rise up against the ignorant masses.”

The Brexit has laid bare the political schism of our time. It’s not about the left vs. the right; it’s about the sane vs. the mindlessly angry…

The Guardian's David Van Reybrouck, originally posted at The Guardian appears willing to take the fight for elite survival even further…proclaiming “our voting system worked well for decades, but now it is broken. There is a better way to give voice to the people…. you do not ask everyone to vote on an issue few people really understand, but you draft a random sample of the population and make sure they come to the grips with the subject matter in order to take a sensible decision. A cross-section of society that is informed can act more coherently than an entire society that is uninformed.”

Brexit is a turning point in the history of western democracy. Never before has such a drastic decision been taken through so primitive a procedure – a one-round referendum based on a simple majority. Never before has the fate of a country – of an entire continent, in fact – been changed by the single swing of such a blunt axe, wielded by disenchanted and poorly informed citizens.

But this is just the latest in a series of worrying blows to the health of democracy. On the surface, everything still seems fine. A few years ago, the World Values Survey, a large-scale international research project, asked more than 73,000 people in 57 countries if they believed democracy was a good way to govern a country – and nearly 92% said yes. But that same survey found that in the past 10 years, around the world, there has been a considerable increase in calls for a strong leader “who does not have to bother with parliament and elections” – and that trust in governments and political parties has reached a historical low. It would appear that people like the idea of democracy but loathe the reality.

Trust in the institutions of democracy is also visibly declining. In the past five years, the European Union’s official research bureau found that less than 30% of Europeans had faith in their national parliaments and governments – some of the lowest figures in years, and an indication that almost three-quarters of people distrust their countries’ most important political institutions. Everywhere in the west, political parties – the key players in our democracies – are among the least trusted institutions in society. Although a certain scepticism is an essential component of citizenship in a free society, we are justified in asking how widespread this distrust might be and at what point healthy scepticism tips over into outright aversion.

There is something explosive about an era in which interest in politics grows while …read more

Source: Not ‘The Onion’ – Why Elections Are Bad For Democracy

    

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