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By Tyler Durden

For those 17-year-old hedge fund managers used to BTFD on hopes corporate buybacks will “have their back” and provide the bid on which momentum-chasing HFT algos will piggyback, we have some bad news and some worse news.

The bad news is that we are entering yet another quiet period for buybacks. This means that for the next 45 days, the biggest – and supposedly only – buyer of stocks will be mostly out of the market, and bank buyback desks will not be able to provide much needed support during distressed (read: more sellers than buyers) times.

The worse news is that even without the buyback blackout period, following months of surging stock repurchasing activity by corporate treasurers…

… buybacks have now ground to a virtual halt.

According to TrimTabs, stock buyback announcements by U.S. companies have fallen sharply, sending a longer-term negative signal for U.S. equities.

“Corporate America announced $2.8 trillion in stock buybacks in the past five years, and these buybacks have provided a key source of fuel for the bull market,” said David Santschi, chief executive officer of TrimTabs. “Corporate actions this year suggest this support is going to diminish.”

In a research note, TrimTabs reported that U.S. companies have announced a mere $11.8 billion in stock buybacks in June through Friday, June 24. This month’s pace is the lowest this year. Only four companies have announced plans to repurchase at least $1 billion this month.

“Even if some of the too-big-to-fails roll out buybacks after the release of the second part of the Fed’s stress test results, this month’s volume is likely to be among the lowest in the past three years,” noted Santschi.

TrimTabs also explained that stock buyback announcements by U.S. companies have totaled $291.7 billion this year, which is 32% lower than the $432.0 billion in the same period last year.

“The sharp decline in buyback announcements suggests corporate leaders are becoming more cautious, and it doesn’t bode well for the U.S. stock market,” said Santschi.

It is unclear if the dramatic slowdown is due to a shift in corporate strategy, due to a desire by the C-suite to stockpile cash, or simply because creditors are no longer willing to fund bonds whose “use of proceeds” is to buyback stock, no matter how high the yield.

In any case, the sudden disappearance of this cost-indiscriminate, and biggest by far, stock buyer in the market will be certain to have a substantial impact on risk pricing in the coming weeks and months; just in case the market didn’t have enough things to worry about…

…read more

Source: Some Bad And Some Worse News For Stock Buybacks

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By Tyler Durden

Submitted by Eugen von Bohm-Bawerk via Bawerk.net,

With global attention focused on BREXIT calamity, potentially more important questions are being overlooked, and especially in the South China Sea where storms are currently brewing between China and a range of littoral states for strategic control of territorial waters.

To be clear, our long term geostrategic position remains unchanged; China will gradually secure control of the South China and East China Seas through its so called ‘nine dash’ line, with the eventual battle for geo-maritime ascendency playing out in the Indian Ocean into the 2030s between China on the one hand, and America on the other. That much remains inexorable, but it’s what happens along the way to that eventual outcome where all the residual risks remains.

The most proximate trigger currently relates to pending legal rulings in The Hague that’s almost certain to rule in favour of Philippines legal claims towards the Spratly Islands. We’ll leave all the legal complexities aside, where this is essentially adjudicating on the technical basis of UNCLOS claims rather sovereignty per se. But suffice to say, China will not only reject the findings, it will up the ante with sabre rattling and maritime movements around the Spratly’s with further land reclamation around Scarborough Shoal. It’s also possible China will initiative targeted sanctions against Manila (a nice welcome message for the incoming President Duterte) to prove its point. Anyone willing to stand in the way of Chinese geopolitical pull, will be pushed off the edge of a ‘geo-economic atoll’, at least when it comes to creeping Chinese consolidation of its nine dash line.

Right on cue, the Chinese have just leant heavily on Cambodia to retreat a joint ASEAN statement against Beijing’ claims in the South China Sea, as a classic Chinese tactic to keep any disputes purely on a bilateral divide and rule basis with Vietnam, Indonesia, Philippines, and to a lesser extent, Malaysia. Coincidently, this is where China has all the economic leverage (see chart). That will take some of the heat off the pending ASEAN Regional Forum, not to mention Chinese G20 meetings in September. But the overall rules of the game are clear: If or when, China faces any geopolitical opposition to its maritime claims, it won’t hesitate to wield a large geo-economic stick to beat smaller starts into submission. Needless to say, exactly the same story applies closer to North East Asian home when it comes to maritime tussles with Japan over the Senkakus, and South Korea over Takeshema. China will continue to divide and rule competing littoral states, using geo-economic strength to rail through new geo-maritime facts on the ground.

The real question isn’t whether Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, Philippines, Indonesia or Malaysia occasionally play up and push back against Chinese actions, but ultimately where the US is going to draw the line to put a serious finger in China’s ‘nine dash’ dyke? While it’s true America is overseeing a fundamental reboot of the 7^th fleet, shifting 60% of its naval and maritime …read more

Source: South China Sea: Storm In A "Far Larger" Indian Ocean Teacup

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By Tyler Durden

When it comes to being direct and offering up some truth, one can rest assured that Jim Rogers is a prime candidate to do both.

In an interview with Yahoo! Finance, the legendary investor had some candid and quite unnerving things to say about the global market in the aftermath of Brexit.

“This is going to be worse than any bear market that you've seen in your lifetime. 2008 was pretty bad because of debt, well the debt all over the world is much, much higher now. Stocks in the US for instance have been going sideways for 18 months, 24 months. That's called distribution by many people, so when you have distribution for a year and a half, it usually leads to bad things.”

If that was too upbeat, Rogers unveils his bear scenario:

“The bear scenario, the bad scenario is that Scotland now leaves and takes the oil money, the city of London gets whacked by Europe, they lose a lot of income. The UK already has huge international debts, and it has balance of trade problems, budget problems, so the bear case is the pound disappears and England becomes Spain, or Poland, or Italy or something.“

“It won't happen anytime soon but the deterioration will continue, it makes stocks go down a lot. Remember, stock markets are anticipating the future, they see that happening it will now lead to many other separatist moments in the EU. This is going to encourage a lot of separatist movement, I'm not saying it's good or bad I'm just telling you what's going to happen, or what the bear case is, that if all that happens we all should be very worried.”

Regarding where EU will be five years from now, Rogers doesn't believe it will even exist:

“The EU as we know it now will not exist, the Euro as we know it will not exist.“

On how to play this market now,

“I'll tell you what I'm doing, people have to make their own decisions, going into this I'm long the US Dollar, I'm short US stocks, I own some Chinese shares, I own agriculture around the world. These are things that might do well no matter what happens going forward. These are going to be perilous times, I hope I get it right.”

…read more

Source: Jim Rogers: Brexit Blowback "Worse Than Any Bear Market You’ve Ever Seen"

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By SRSrocco

By the SRSrocco Report,

According to the figures in the 2016 World Silver Survey, Americans now lead the world in physical silver investment. This is quite an interesting change as India has been the number one market for silver bar demand in the past.

For example, Indians purchased more than 100 million oz (Moz) of silver bar in 2008 of the approximate world total of 125 Moz. However, silver bar demand is only one segment of total global physical silver investment. There is also Official Coin demand.

If we look at the data for 2015, India continues to rank as the largest source of silver bar investment int he world:

India purchased 82.5 Moz of silver bar in 2015 while the U.S. ranked second with 51.8 Moz, Europe came in third with 12.7 Moz and China placed last at 3.8 Moz. (2016 World Silver Survey, pg. 22 & 23).

The United States experienced a huge increase in silver bar demand in 2015 due to the inclusion of “Private rounds and bars” now in the data. So, all private silver bar and rounds sold are lumped into the Silver Bar category.

Even though India ranked first place when it comes to silver bar demand, if we include Official Coin sales, the U.S. is now the global leader of physical silver investment:

In 2015, the U.S. Mint sold 48.6 Moz of Official Silver coins while India ranked fifth at 8.9 Moz. If we add silver bar demand to these figures, the U.S. was the leader at 100.4 Moz while India came in second at 91.4 Moz. (2016 World Silver Survey, pg. 25). The rest of the world accounted for the remaining 100.5 Moz of the total 292.3 Moz of Silver Bar & Coin demand.

I could not break down Silver Bar & Coin demand in the ‘Rest of World” category because there isn’t enough data. The World Silver Survey’s do a much better job than the CPM Group’s Silver Yearbook in reporting silver investment figures. However, they only publish the amount of Silver Coins sold by each of the Official mints, not the actual demand.

There is no way of knowing how many U.S. Silver Eagles end up in foreign hands, or how many Canadian Maples or Australian Kangaroos are purchased by Americans. The data is not that accurate. However, I do believe Indians purchased the overwhelming majority of their own Official Silver coins.

Furthermore, the Silver Bar & Coin demand of 100.4 Moz for the United States may be quite conservative. Why? Because, Americans buy a heck of a lot more foreign Official Silver Coins to more than make up for the amount of U.S. Silver Eagles exported abroad. We must remember, Americans don’t have to pay a vat tax when they buy silver.

What is also interesting about the data is that China ranked fourth behind Europe …read more

Source: Americans Are Now The Top Silver Investors In The World

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By Tyler Durden

Earlier this month, Nomura came out with fresh downgrades to McDonald's, Domino's, Wendy's, and Papa John's, and all of the notes started with the exact same sentence: “Our downgrade is predicated on multiple factors, including slowing in the US restaurant industry same-store sales trends during Q2.“

Nomura downgraded those restaurants for precisely the same reasons that market research firm NPD Group points out, which is that the growth in visits to fast food restaurants has come to a complete standstill. As the WSJ reports, visits to fast food restaurants had been growing at a quarterly rate of 2% since September 2015, but haven't grown at all in March, April or May.

CEO's are confirming the slowdown, as Clifford Hudson, CEO of Sonic Corp. told investors that the consumer as become “more guarded”, and is even more sensitive to prices than just a few months ago. Wendy's CEO reiterated Hudson's comments, saying “the consumer does continue to be cautious“, adding that “it has been hard to really pinpoint what's driving that.” Well, allow us to take a shot at that one: the economy has created low paying jobs during the “recovery”, and those lower wage workers are as cost burdened as ever as they pay more and more of their income toward rent – that would be a good place to begin to look for answers.

As NPD restaurant analyst Bonnie Riggs points out “that's a red flag because it's been an area of growth and it's 80% of the industry.” Indeed, but not only that, it's a red flag because when consumers feel uncertain about their financial futures, a pullback in discretionary spend is the first place to pull back and save money.

For Tracy Schwartz, a 29 year old part-time receptionist, saving money is precisely what she is trying to do by eating more at home as opposed to going out. After losing a full-time job five months ago, Schwartz said “I needed to figure out ways to save money“, so she began eating prepared meals from supermarkets and clipping coupons.

With it being more expensive to eat out than it is at home, it's easy to see how any slight shift in consumer confidence (or ability to pay) would lead to a significant pullback in restaurant spending.

And of course as rates are being driven to near record lows, not allowing for savers to earn much income at all, those that are retired have become quite careful with how money is being spent.

“I retired early and I'm not getting Social Security yet, but I and a lot of people my age are afraid of benefits changing before we get there. Right now I have short-term savings to get me by until I'm able to draw Social Security but I don't feel confident in what I can count on.” said Diana Martin, a 57 year old retired pharmaceutical sales executive.

Martin noted that the bill at a fast-food chain she frequented with her son used to amount to $12, now those same …read more

Source: Another Red Flag: Growth In Fast Food Visits Has Hit A Wall

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By Tyler Durden

The US Treasury yield curve has collapsed to its flattest since Nov 2007… just before the US economy officially slumped into recession…

“There can’t be a recession… the yield curve is not inverted…”

Perhaps US banks are starting to realize the inevitable also?

Charts: Bloomberg

…read more

Source: The Last Time Bonds Were Here, The Recession Started

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Standard & Poor’s stripped the U.K. of its AAA credit rating on Monday following the shocking Brexit vote to leave the European Union. …read more

Source: Downgraded: U.K. loses perfect AAA credit rating

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Brexit is a major wake up call for world leaders. Trade and globalization are under fire. CNNMoney looks at what it will take for the global economy to triumph. …read more

Source: Brexit is a big wakeup call on inequality

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By Tyler Durden

For the first time since early March, The Dow dropped back near 17,000 earlier (down over 1000 points from the pre-Brexit peak) with a modest bounce off the EU close lows. However, this plunge across risk assets has erased all post-QE3 gains with Trannies down 20% since Oct 2014. Having been almost 200 points ‘rich’ to the Fed balance sheet, it appears reality is setting in once again and risk is mean-reverting.

Post-QE3…

Which, once again, reverts S&P to its Fed Balance Sheet implied level…

FV is around 1960 – but as we saw in Aug 2015 and Jan 2016, the market must overshoot before The Fed will jawbone it back to hope.

Charts: Bloomberg

…read more

Source: US Stocks Erase All Post-QE3 Gains, Tumble To Fed Balance Sheet ‘Reality’ Once More

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By Tyler Durden

There is nothing one can add to these three Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity respondents, who in just a few brief sentences successfully explain pretty much everything that is wrong with the US economy right now.

Response #1: “the Fed, Credit Conditions and Employment”

The economy is nervous, shaky and uncertain. Fed policy has us locked into a lethargic and tenuous position. It appears the Fed doesn’t know how to get off the horse it created. The Fed talks interest rate increases but looks for every reason not to do it. Until the Fed backs out of trying to manage the economy, we will be stuck on the cusp of slow growth and a recession. Add the difficulty in getting commercial and retail financing and rising employee costs (health care, minimum wage threats and the ridiculous overtime executive order), and hiring for many of us will be minimal. We cannot have millions of people out of the workforce and be healthy economically—they are a burden not a benefit.

Response #2: “the Government and Regulation”

We are experiencing major demand instability in the U.S. Continued management focus on upcoming regulatory changes is keeping us from pursuing new markets (especially internationally) and delaying making long-term investments. Major human resources policy updates and changes have resulted in eliminating positions (in the future as people are promoted or leave the company they will not be replaced) and considering moving all salary people who do not travel to hourly. Although we need more people, we are increasing the requirements for the open positions to reflect higher cost thresholds and most likely will delay hiring decisions for most positions until the impacts of the changes are fully understood.

Response #3: “Obamacare, Productivity and Deflation”

The Affordable Care Act (ACA) continues a downward push on productivity as it limits our hiring because we can’t afford the estimated 60 percent increase in health care premiums that an ACA-compliant policy would cost. Steel raw material costs are rising, but the steel scrap is falling, therefore increasing our costs. Customers are not accepting price increases. It is slow, and the general business climate seems tepid at best.

So if Texas manufacturers get it, why can’t the world’s “smartest” economists and central planners?

* * *

Bonus Response:

“Labor availability in Juarez and other areas of Mexico has tightened considerably.”

…read more

Source: These Three Survey Responses Explain Everything That Is Wrong With The US Economy

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