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By Tyler Durden

By Richard Brewslow, fmr FX trader and fund manager who writes for Bloomberg

Today’s Trading Is All About Blinking First

The voting has begun to decide Britain’s EU referendum. It’s raining hard and it’s hot, which makes it fortunate that the British are a hardy lot. They’ve had to be to endure a campaign where the hyperbole has been worthy of a U.S. election.

Banks left and right are warning their clients in advance that they may not have the liquidity or risk appetite to execute trades on their behalf tomorrow. I’m not sure why they’re also advising what trades to do on the outcome.

The only financial institutions who have declared themselves poised to get involved with both hands are central banks. They have their puts ready to go and are revving their transmission mechanisms. Once you get the trading bug, it’s hard to shake.

Yet for all the ambiguity, assets are going into today flying. Nothing can go wrong.

The U.K. hanging by a thread? Versus the dollar, the pound is above all its moving averages, making a new year-to-date high today. Looks awfully good against the euro, too. FTSE 100 has flown back above its moving averages and threatens a technical break-out less than one percent away.

Germany’s DAX index, for which so many obituaries were written, looks like its upward momentum is now solid and has strong technical support to lean on. I’m not sure why it wants to, but the euro is trying to ram its head once again against 1.1450 resistance to the dollar.

Not wanting to be left out, S&P 500 futures have been trading with a strong bid all day.

Price action today means nothing for where it will all be tomorrow, but it does show which side fears it holds the weaker hand. And the trades required to get square. Poker is a fascinating game.

…read more

Source: Today’s Trading Is All About Blinking First

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When C-SPAN’s cameras were turned off by House Republicans, protesting Democrats turned on their phone cameras and live streamed their sit-in on Facebook and Periscope. …read more

Source: House Democrats Periscope gun control sit-in

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By Tyler Durden

Just days before Spain will hold its second election in six months, acting Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy finds himself involved in the middle of a scandal.

Rajoy was implicated Wednesday in an alleged smear campaign after taped conversations from two years ago appeared to show his interior minister Jorge Fernandez Diaz asking a top anti-fraud official for information on how to discredit political rivals Bloomberg reports. Diaz said that the recordings had been taken out of context, and denies any wrongdoing.

From Bloomberg

Spain’s acting interior minister, Jorge Fernandez Diaz, is facing calls to resign after a series of leaked recordings showed him asking a top anti-fraud official for information to discredit political rivals in Catalonia.

The audio files published by Publico news site as Spaniards gear up for a general election on Sunday appear to show Fernandez Diaz quizzing the head of the Catalan anti-fraud agency for evidence of corruption involving the region’s two main political parties, Convergencia and the Catalan Republican Left, as well as any other details that could damage their leaders. The conversation, according to Publico, was taped back in 2014 when the region held a disputed referendum on independence from Spain.

Fernandez Diaz, who’s running on the incumbent People’s Party ticket for Barcelona, denied any wrongdoing in an interview with Cadena Cope radio. He said the recordings had been taken out of context to damage the government’s reputation ahead of the June 26 ballot and it was “offensive” to think a minister would order officials to concoct evidence for political motives.

Rajoy said that Diaz had given a “clear” explanation and did not need to resign – “As we're four days before the end of the campaign, someone is trying to take advantage and fish in troubled waters to see what comes out” Rajoy said, adding that his government has never used or leaked investigations into possible criminal activity to hurt rivals.

* * *

PP leader Mariano Rajoy is already fending off corruption scandals, and this recent development could potentially play a role in how the country votes as voters head to the polls on Sunday to try and elect a government.

A quick recap of the Spanish elections can be found here.

…read more

Source: Spain’s Rajoy Implicated In Smear Allegations Just Days Before Elections

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Asian millionaires now control more wealth than their peers in the United States and other parts of the globe. …read more

Source: Asian millionaires now the wealthiest in the world

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By Tyler Durden

Authored by Peter Cleppe, originally posted at Euro Insight,

If Brexit marks the beginning of the end for the European project, Brussels will take its share of the blame

If Britain leaves the EU and if the reaction to Brexit causes years of uncertainty, the EU will reap what it has sowed. British discontent is only a precursor to unrest on the Continent, where populists from across the political spectrum feel they have lost control over their fate, and are gaining popularity.

We’ve seen the transfers of power to the European level after ignoring the referendums on the European Constitution in France and the Netherlands in 2004. We’ve witnessed the refusal to allow Grexit, which could have been an alternative for continued fiscal transfers and interventions into national budgetary decisions. Both have created a lot of discontent and anti-EU sentiment since 2010.

Last year, there was the decision to outvote Central and Eastern Europe on the sensitive issue of forcing countries to accept refugees, which isn’t even possible in a passport-free zone, as people can travel freely, but which was decided to divert attention from criticism on Angela Merkel’s controversial refugee policy and to organize yet another transfer of power to the EU level.

Finally, we could see how Prime Minister David Cameron’s proposals to bridge the gap between the EU and citizens were met with a lukewarm reaction. His proposal, for example, to allow national parliaments to block EU proposals was watered down to make it harder to implement.

If the British vote to ‘Remain’, they most likely won’t do so with a majority of more than 60%. That however is the threshold needed, according to pollster Comres, to really settle the debate for the next few years.

With a narrow victory for the ‘Remain’ camp, it is therefore more than likely that the debate would just start over the next day, very much like the Scottish demand for independence which has remained a prominent feature in UK politics after 44.7% of Scots voted to secede from the UK in a referendum in 2014.

If people vote to ‘Leave’ the EU, the government is likely to activate article 50 of the EU Treaty, which foresees that the status quo is maintained for two years and that both parties are given the chance to renegotiate their relationship.

Many think that two years will be much too short for this. The British government thinks that there could perhaps be 10 years of uncertainty, while EU Council President Tusk has mentioned seven years. Some in the ‘Leave’ camp have claimed that there may even be a second referendum after a Brexit vote, whereby Britain would get the chance to remain in the EU after all, but under better conditions than those negotiated by Cameron in February this year.

It’s unlikely that the UK would want a relationship similar to that between Norway and the EU. Norway may have complete access to the European single market because of its membership of …read more

Source: British Discontent About The EU: Only A Precursor To Unrest On The Continent

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By Tyler Durden

Submitted by Professor Richard A. Werner, D.Phil. (Oxon)

EU Basics – Your Guide to the Referendum

The British people should be clear about just what they will be voting on at the EU referendum this Thursday. What does it actually mean to stay in the EU? What does it mean to exit?

Concerning the second question, the dominant issue in the debate has been the question whether there will be a significant negative economic impact on the UK from exiting the EU. Prime Minister David Cameron, together with the heads of the IMF, the OECD and various EU agencies have given dire warnings that economic growth will drop, the fiscal position will deteriorate, the currency will weaken and UK exports will decline precipitously. George Osborne, the chancellor of the exchequer has threatened to cut pensions if pensioners dare to vote for exit. But what are the facts?

I have been trained in international and monetary economics at the London School of Economics and have a doctorate from the University of Oxford in economics. I have studied such issues for several decades. I have also recently tested, using advanced quantitative techniques, the question of the size of impact on GDP from entry to or exit from the EU or the eurozone. The conclusion is that this makes no difference to economic growth, and everyone who claims the opposite is not guided by the facts. The reason is that economic growth and national income are almost entirely determined by a factor that is decided at home, namely the amount of bank credit created for productive purposes. This has sadly been very small in the UK in recent decades, thus much greater economic growth is possible as soon as steps are taken to boost bank credit for productive purposes – irrespective of whether the UK stays in the EU or not (although Brexit will make it much easier to take such policy steps). We should also remember that a much smaller economy like Norway – thought more dependent on international trade – fared extremely well after its people rejected EU membership in a referendum in 1995 (which happened against the dire warnings and threats from its cross-party elites, most of its media and the united chorus of the heads of international organisations). Besides, Japan, Korea, Taiwan and China never needed EU membership to move from developing economy status to top industrialised nations within about half a century. The argument of dire economic consequences of Brexit is bogus.

As for the first question, namely what it means to stay inside the EU, we should consult the EU itself. Happily, the EU released a major official report about its key policies and what it plans to achieve in the near future in October 2015. This report was issued in the names of the “Five Presidents“ of the EU. In case you had not been aware that there was even a single, let alone five presidents of the EU, these are: The unelected president of the European Central Bank, Goldman …read more

Source: Who Is The "European Movement" And Why The Answer May Change How You Vote On "Brexit"

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By GoldCore

Gold Lower Despite “Panic” Due To “Supply Issues” In Inter Bank Gold Market

Gold fell again today to its lowest in a week despite continuing uncertainty about the outcome of the Brexit referendum. This is contributing to very significant high net worth and institutional demand in recent days, particularly in the UK, which is leading to “panic” and “supply issues” in the interbank gold market.

Supply issues which respected gold analysts and ourselves have warned in recent years were taking place, would deepen and would ultimately lead to a reset of gold prices to much higher levels.

Click chart for more

Increasing speculation that Britain may vote to stay in the European Union and hedge fund liquidations are being blamed for the recent price falls. However, bullion dealers such as GoldCore, mints and refineries that cater to the UK market have seen minimal selling this week and in fact there has been a surge in demand again this week.

We believe the price falls are due to hedge funds and banks liquidating positions and shorting the market. As ever, there is the risk that algo and high frequency trading (HFT) may be manipulating prices lower despite very robust physical demand and increasing liquidity issues in the interbank gold market.

Informed, senior sources at the highest level of the gold bullion industry have told us that there is “panic” in the inter bank or institutional gold market. According to the sources one of whom is from a leading Swiss gold refinery, we are in a “unique trading climate” that they have never seen before. This is not just due to Brexit but to “a number of factors” and so is likely to continue even after the Brexit referendum.

The market is subject to absolutely “unprecedented conditions” and a degree of illiquidity and “supply issues” not seen even in the immediate aftermath of September 11th, Lehman Brothers and the height of the Eurozone crisis.

Refineries and mints are being advised that bullion banks may take the unprecedented step of “suspending the trading of physical gold.” Premiums have risen on larger orders creating the situation where spreads are higher on larger orders. An example of this is that a 1,000 ounce order worth $12.66 million at current prices is trading at a premium of $0.33 per ounce over a smaller order of 500 ounces.

There is also warnings that stop loss orders above 5,000 ounces may not be filled at agreed prices and could be filled at much lower prices. In addition, a number of large liquidity providers in the gold market, such as Intl FC Stone, have increased margins.

Thus counter intuitively, larger high net worth and institutional orders are costing more than somewhat smaller relative orders. This has the effect of discouraging larger buy orders for physical – whether by accident or by design. “Officialdom” does not want surging gold prices in advance of the referendum due to the risks that this poses to the financial and monetary system and therefore prices may be being “capped” prior to the vote …read more

Source: Gold Lower Despite “Panic” Due To “Supply Issues” In Inter Bank Gold Market

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By Tyler Durden

Submitted by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.com,

Those people who do not avidly track global economic events may be a bit confused by the growing tensions surrounding the U.K. referendum to exit the European Union, otherwise known as the “Brexit.” Or, they are completely indifferent. Unfortunately, the potential fallout surrounding the event could very well affect the entire world, but perhaps not in the manner the mainstream media and international financiers would have us believe…

I would point out that under normal global economic conditions, the Brexit really shouldn’t matter much to anyone outside of the U.K. If the EU was fiscally stable, if its banks were solvent and its national debts well in hand, if the EU was actually a practical and successful supranational body, then the damage done by a British vote to leave the union would be minimal. Of course, this is not the case. As many other independent economic analysts and I have been outlining for years, the European Union is on the verge of economic breakdown. Look at it this way — if financial turmoil in a tiny member state like Greece can cause widespread doubts about the EU’s stability, then there is something fundamentally volatile about the entire structure.

The Brexit matters greatly to the future of the EU because, theoretically, if one of its most prominent members says adios, then other members may do the same. As it stands now, the EU cannot afford to have even one member, economically large or small, drop out of the system.

The Brexit matters to the rest of the world including the U.S. because of the brilliantly-destructive program of interdependency and globalism that has shaped our financial house for decades. Interdependency leads to extreme economic weakness because no piece of the global system has the tools to survive without the other pieces; and on top of this, when one part of the machine goes down, ALL the other parts are affected.

It is a truly horrible and seemingly idiotic system; but not so idiotic if you accept the reality that it is deliberately engineered to fail.

When you examine the fiscal foundations of every major economy in the world today, what you find is a financial shell game. The fundamentals tell us the truth; with global exports and imports in decline, global shipping of raw materials in decline, manufacturing in decline, retail in decline, employment in decline, real unemployment numbers including those people no longer counted by the Labor Department skyrocketing and the number of people on welfare and food stamps skyrocketing.

In reality, the global economy is one massive thin-skinned bubble searching for a sharp object to impale itself on. The Brexit may very well be that sharp object.

Before I go into the various details surrounding Thursday’s vote, I want to state that I am in full support of the British movement to leave the European Union. The reasoning behind a successful Brexit is solid. The European Union’s rabid socialist tendencies have created a doom scenario for all those shackled to the …read more

Source: Brexit: Global Trigger Event, Fake Out Or Something Else?

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By Tyler Durden

Submitted by John Walsh via LewRockwell.com,

Until recently the progressive mind has been resolutely closed and stubbornly frozen in place against all things Trump.

But cracks are appearing in the ice. With increasing frequency over the last few months, some of the most thoughtful left and progressive figures have begun to speak favorably of aspects of Trump’s foreign policy. Let us hear from these heretics, among them William Greider, Glen Ford, John Pilger, Jean Bricmont, Stephen F. Cohen and William Blum. Their words are not to be construed as “endorsements,” but rather an acknowledgment of Trump’s anti-interventionist views, the impact those views are having and the alternative he poses to Hillary Clinton in the current electoral contest.

First, let’s consider the estimable William Greider, a regular contributor to The Nation and author of Secrets of the Temple. He titled a recent article for the Nation, “Donald Trump Could be The Military Industrial Complex’s Worst Nightmare: The Republican Front Runner is Against Nation Building. Imagine That.”

Greider’s article is brief, and I recommend reading every precious word of it. Here is but one quote: “Trump has, in his usual unvarnished manner, kicked open the door to an important and fundamental foreign-policy debate.” And here is a passage from Trump’s interview with the Washington Post that Greider chooses to quote:

“’I watched as we built schools in Iraq and they’d be blown up,’ Trump told the editors. ‘And we’d build another one and it would get blown up. And we would rebuild it three times. And yet we can’t build a school in Brooklyn.… at what point do you say hey, we have to take care of ourselves. So, you know, I know the outer world exists and I’ll be very cognizant of that but at the same time, our country is disintegrating, large sections of it, especially in the inner cities.’”

Trump talks about building infrastructure for the inner cities, especially better schools for African American children, rather than bombing people of color halfway around the world! That is hardly racism. And it is not how the mainstream media wants us to think of The Donald.

Next, Glen Ford, the eloquent radical Left executive editor of Black Agenda Report, a superb and widely read outlet, penned an article in March 2016, with the following title: “Trump Way to the Left of Clinton on Foreign Policy – In Fact, He’s Damn Near Anti-Empire.” Ford’s piece is well worth reading in its entirety; here are just a few quotes :

“Trump has rejected the whole gamut of U.S. imperial war rationales, from FDR straight through to the present.”

“If Trump’s tens of millions of white, so-called ‘Middle American’ followers stick by him, it will utterly shatter the prevailing assumption that the American public favors maintenance of U.S. empire by military means.”

“Trump shows no interest in ‘spreading democracy,’ like George W. Bush, or assuming a responsibility to ‘protect’ …read more

Source: Trump’s Anti-Interventionism – Neocons Hate It As Anti-War Left Comes Around

    

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By Tyler Durden

Submitted by Eugen von Bohm-Bawerk via Bawerk.net,

It took a while to play through, but our assessment that China would increasingly become the petro-state lender of last resort is starting to come good. The primary reason for that is producer states are rapidly running out of time to prevent full scale political implosion on the back of chronic economic pressures.

For all the hype around current ‘price recovery’, it means absolutely nothing for most producer states. It’s becoming painfully obvious that the prevailing geopolitical price of survival is structurally out of sync with geological costs of production. Ten dollars here, ten dollar there; it doesn’t really matter: Either China ‘steps up or steps out’ as the lender of last resort to keep fragile petro-states in the black at this stage. You’d think that’s a relatively easy call to make, but it’s anything but for Beijing. Prop up one petro-state, and the same standard will be applied across the board. Let one fail, and political contagion risks become very real across China’s entire supply base. That defines the very core of the lender of last resort conundrum for China. Where does Beijing want to draw its petro-state lines?

The most obvious (and extreme) test case is of course Venezuela. Beyond PSUV politicking around President Maduro, referendum recalls and whether the party can stagger on to 2019 without having to hold a national ballot, the country is economically collapsing. Nobody can get access to basic goods, kidnapping rates are through the roof, both of which happen to be directly linked to the government’s clear aim to cut imports as far as possible (towards $20bn this year) to try and service external debts. Beyond government control of food lines via ‘local supply and production committees’ with some pretty blunt tactics from the National Guard and police to contain massive social unrest, it’s still nowhere near enough to prevent outright default without Chinese help. Little wonder Venezuela is begging Beijing for another $8bn credit line, with postponed payments on PDVA’s oil backed debts to for at least a year, where China would basically provide ‘more cash’ and take less equity crude to buy Venezuela more 2016-17 time.

Whether China goes for it remains to be seen, but it’s in little doubt if it decides to keep Maduro on life support, it’s then going to be cutting far more cheques to buy President dos Santos another election in Angola (August 2016).

That would entail exactly the same ‘more cash vs. less equity crude’ mantra from Luanda, with Southern Iraq using the the same copy / paste story in Rumaila. Obviously you could add Ecuador, South Sudan and even Caspian players into the mix, but wherever you look, China has the same fundamental call to make: How many petro-players does it want to keep on its books, and at what strategic price, given that all means easing up on equity barrels as the mainstay of Chinese supply side optionality. Let’s not forget, petro-states are the absolute definition of ‘moral hazard’ …read more

Source: China’s Petro-State "Lender Of Last Resort" Conundrum

    

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