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By Tyler Durden

Submitted by Charles Hugh-Smith of OfTwoMinds blog,

So ride your bubble of choice up–stocks, bonds, housing, bat guano, take your pick–but it's best to keep your thumb on the sell button.

One person's bubble is another person's “fair market value.” What is clearly an outrageously overvalued asset perched at nosebleed levels of central-bank fueled speculative euphoria is to the owner an asset at “fair market value.”

But beneath the euphoric confidence that valuations can only drift higher forever and ever is the latent fear that something could stick a pin in “my bubble”— that is, whatever bubblicious asset we happen to own and treasure as a source of our financial wealth could be popped, destroying not just our financial bubble but our psychological bubble of faith in permanent manias.

Consider housing prices, which are clearly in an echo-bubble of the Great Housing Bubble of 2000-2007. (Chart courtesy of Market Daily Briefing.)

The psychological underpinning of all bubbles and echo bubbles is on display here. In the first bubble, those benefiting from the stupendous price increases are not just euphoric at the surge in unearned wealth–they believe the hype with all their hearts and minds that the bubble is not a bubble at all, it's all just “fair market value” at work.

In other words, the massive increase in unearned personal wealth is not just temporary good fortune–it is permanent, rational and deserved.

Alas, all bubbles, no matter how euphoric or long-lasting, eventually pop. All the certainties that seemed so obviously true and timeless to the believers melt into air, and their touching faith that the bubble valuations were permanent, rational and deserved dissipates in a wrenchingly painful reconciliation with reality.

The agonized cries of those watching their bubble-wealth vanish do not fall on deaf ears. The same central bankers that inflated the bubble with super-low interest rates suddenly see their much-loved wealth effect (i.e. the bubble-generated psychological sense of wealth that emboldens people to borrow and spend money they shouldn't borrow and spend) imploding before their eyes.

In the panicky haste of blind expediency, central bankers drop interest rates to zero and unleash unlimited liquidity to save the bubbles they inflated. Instead of flushing the system of bad debt and speculative leverage and allowing the market to reprice impaired assets, central bankers push the perverse incentives that inflated the bubble to new highs.

Should lowering interest rates to zero fail to reflate the bubble, central bankers then start buying assets hand over fist, creating trillions of dollars, yuan, yen and euros out of thin air to boost asset prices with direct and indirect purchases.

The relief of those saved from financial destruction by the heroic efforts of central bankers is palpable. Rather than retrace to pre-bubble levels, valuations are caught in mid-air and pushed higher by central bank liquidity and asset purchases.

But the naive faith of asset owners cannot be restored to its pre-bubble virginal state. The nagging realization that all bubbles are temporary and irrational, and that bubblicious wealth is unearned and undeserved, lingers in the …read more

Source: "Please Don’t Pop My Bubble!"

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Investors around the world went into crisis mode as British voters chose to leave the European Union in a stunning decision with far-reaching implications. …read more

Source: U.K. ‘earthquake’ crushes global markets

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Investors around the world went into crisis mode as British voters chose to leave the European Union in a stunning decision with far-reaching implications. …read more

Source: U.K. ‘earthquake’ crushes global markets

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By Tyler Durden

Sterling drops, banking stocks tumble and peripheral EGB and credit spreads widen after the U.K.’s vote to leave the EU; verbal and direct intervention by central banks help currencies off earlier lows. U.K. PM David Cameron has resigned, announcing there needs to be a new prime minister in place by October.

MARKET MOVES: ALL ABOUT FX

• GBP/USD down ~8%, paring earlier slide of as much as 11%; liquidity returns as uncertainty dissipates with volumes around 50 times a “normal” session for the Asia time zone, traders in Europe say
• One-week implied volatility in GBP/USD up 2 vols; rose 21 vols to fresh record of 53.16% earlier
• USD/JPY briefly drops below 100 to a 2 1/2-yr low; CHF more than halves gains vs EUR after SNB intervened to stabilize the currency
• ZAR, PLN, MXN slide around 5%, leading declines among EM currencies
• WTI crude falls ~4% to $48.10
• FTSE 100 down 6%, Euro Stoxx 600 slumps 8.1%
• Yields on U.K. 10Y gilts drop 30bps to 1.07%
• Banking stocks RBS, Lloyds, Barclays shares fall more than 29%

WHAT’S THE LATEST?

• U.K. PM Cameron says will continue in role for three months, says the next PM will decide when to trigger article 50
• Central banks across the world pledge to take action as needed to avert any breakdown in financial-market liquidity
  • Governor Carney says BOE well-prepared for Brexit, ready provide GBP250b of extra funds; adds central bank won’t hesitate to take additional measures
  • SNB says it “intervened in the foreign exchange market to stabilize the situation and will remain active in that market”
  • BOJ Governor Kuroda and Japan FinMin Taro Aso said central banks of six major developed nations have currency-swap lines at the ready to provide liquidity
• Central banks expected to ensure stability on Brexit impact, with BOJ expected to act more rapidly than others, UBS economist John Wraith says
• As first step, possibly there will be some verbal communication in form of “whatever it takes” to reassure the markets; then some reassessment will be required, UniCredit strategist Vasileios Gkionakis says
• BOJ likely to step in on a dip in USD/JPY below 100
• S&P says U.K. will be downgraded by at least one notch; says votes in Scotland and Northern Ireland ‘raise many questions’
• U.K.’s credit ratings would be quickly reviewed, “likely with a negative bias,” Andrew Colquhoun, head of Asia- Pacific Sovereigns at Fitch Ratings said before the vote result
• EU President Donald Tusk says EU determined to keep unity as 27-member bloc
• Brexit means U.K. can’t retain advantages of being in EU, French government spokesman Stephane Le Foll says on France2 TV
• There must be a referendum now in France, National Front party says in posting on Twitter, while Dutch Freedom Party Leader Wilders says “Time for Dutch referendum”
• JPMorgan executives say may need to change location of some roles, will maintain large presence in U.K.

WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?

• Govt paper on the process of withdrawing from the EU shows U.K. and union members will have 2 years to negotiate initially; period can be extended if all remaining 27 members agree
• “The EU procedures for leaving the European Union are clearly spelled out and will …read more

  Source: Brexit: All The Latest News, What Happens Next And How To Trade It

      

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for latest details. …read more

Source: Brexit shock vote: What you need to know

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By Tyler Durden

With knife-catching “value” investors proclaiming yesterday that any dip today would be an opportunity, it appears once again that faced with the reality of Brexit blowback, no one (not even the central banks) are buying the f##king dip). As Bloomberg's Mark Cudmore exclaims “Don't be a hero,” to those value-investors, warning that “most of the market is still in denial.”

This vote for Brexit is a momentous event in history. The ramifications will take time to play out. Don’t try to be clever today. For market participants, self-preservation is paramount.

There will be plenty of opportunities for traders to try to profit from this shift (if they are so inclined) in the weeks ahead. But the risk-reward ratio in the short-term will remain terrible.

Part of the reason this is such a negative event for global markets is that there is so much uncertainty how it plays out.

Most of the market is still in denial. Many people are highlighting that the referendum has no legal effect and may not be ratified still. Even if that was the case, such a public rejection of democracy would hardly be a positive.

Central-bank action in the coming days is likely — both in currency markets and through extraordinary monetary policy.

The reason why bear markets cause such financial pain isn’t just through the wealth-destruction effect. Bears themselves can also lose money as volatility remains so high and liquidity so low that relief rallies can be powerful and force shorts to be closed at extreme levels.

The one certainty that everyone should now cling to is that there is no certainty. Do the rest of the EU become tighter or splinter further in the coming months? This is the first major step against greater integration since the project began.

What happens to banks based in the UK? What happens to sovereign debt deposited at the ECB? What happens to company plans and EU employees? What happens to funds who have sterling-denominated collateral?

An important warning: global equity markets closed higher the week of Lehman Brothers collapse -– the real move lower didn’t start for two weeks. Don’t get lulled into complacency in the weeks ahead; the consequences will take months to play out.

Keep cautious, nimble and flexible. The world economy and markets will eventually move on and adapt -– it just may take some time

…read more

Source: "Don’t Try To Be A Hero Today" Veteran Trader Warns "Self-Preservation Is Paramount"

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The pound is crashing and stocks are tanking after the U.K. voted to leave the European Union. But what happens next and why does it matter? …read more

Source: Britain’s ‘Black Friday’ is here. Now what?

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By Tyler Durden

Euro Stoxx 50 Futures have collapsed over 11% at the open… the biggest single-day crash in Rhhistory…

The question is – do the central banks rush in to save the world (and prove Brexit wasn’t so bad after all), or do they fiddle while Rome burns?

…read more

Source: European Stocks Crash Most In History

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By Tyler Durden

Just as we warned, the historic British rejection of the EU’s totalitarian rule has sparked renewed ambitions to leave the clutches of Brussels across Europe. First to congratulate Britain was Holland’s Geert Wilders, who calls for a Dutch referendum as soon as possible…

Thursday, June 23, 2016, will go down in history as Britain’s Independence Day.

The Europhile elite has been defeated. Britain points Europe the way to the future and to liberation. It is time for a new start, relying on our own strength and sovereignty. Also in the Netherlands.

A recent survey (EenVandaag, Dutch television) shows that a majority of the Dutch want a referendum on EU membership. It also shows that more Dutch are in favour of exit than of remaining in the EU.

The Dutch people deserve a referendum as well. The Party for Freedom consequently demands a referendum on NExit, a Dutch EU exit.

As quickly as possible the Dutch need to get the opportunity to have their say about Dutch membership of the European Union.

Geert Wilders: “We want be in charge of our own country, our own money, our own borders, and our own immigration policy. If I become prime minister, there will be a referendum in the Netherlands on leaving the European Union as well. Let the Dutch people decide.”

Meanwhile, Europe is a bloodbath…This is the biggest drop in EURUSD (DEMUSD) since 1978!!

as NExit looms…

Just as we warned in April.

…read more

Source: "Now It’s Our Turn" – Geert Wilders Calls For A Dutch Referendum

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Investors around the world went into crisis mode as results showed British voters have chosen to leave the European Union in a stunning decision. …read more

Source: Markets in crisis mode as U.K. votes to leave European Union

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