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By Michael Snyder

If you reside on the west coast, you are living on borrowed time.  As you will see below, stress has been building up along the San Andreas fault for more than a century, and scientists tell us that southern California is way overdue for a major earthquake.  When that stress is finally released, the U.S. Geological Survey says that we could be looking at hundreds of billions of dollars in damage.  If you follow my work regularly, then you already know that there has been unusual shaking all along the “Ring of Fire” so far in 2016.  But thankfully the west coast of the United States has been spared from a major disaster up to this point.  Unfortunately, scientists assure us that it is only a matter of time before one strikes, and that is why it is so alarming that the ground surrounding the San Andreas fault has been “rising and sinking”.  The following comes from the Los Angeles Times…

For the first time, scientists have produced a computer image showing huge sections of California rising and sinking around the San Andreas fault.

The vertical movement is the result of seismic strain that will be ultimately released in a large earthquake.

The California coastline is where two enormous tectonic plates come together.  The Pacific plate and the North American plate are slowly but surely moving against one another, and this creates a tremendous amount of geological stress.  While areas on both sides of the San Andreas fault have been steadily rising and sinking as a result of this stress, there are sections of the fault itself that have remained “locked” for more than 100 years, and other sections that have remained locked for more than 300 years…

The region of the San Andreas fault between Monterey County and Imperial County hasn’t moved in a significant way in more than 150 years, and other parts of the fault have been accumulating stress for more than 300 years.

This build up of stress is extremely dangerous, because the more stress that builds up the worse the ultimate release of that stress could turn out to be.

If you look at this map from the U.S. Geological Survey, you can see all of the earthquakes of magnitude 2.5 or greater that have hit California within the past seven days.  As you can see, there has been a whole lot of shaking going on…

And let us not forget that earlier this month a magnitude 5.2 earthquake struck near San Diego, and it was followed by more than 800 aftershocks.

Unfortunately, none of these quakes has relieved the stress along the San Andreas fault.  While the San Andreas fault may be the most famous of the faults in southern California, the truth is that there are many others.  And just last year the U.S. Geological Survey admitted that the probability of a “megaquake” along the west coast involving multiple faults at once was significantly greater than they …read more

Source: Southern California Time Bomb: The Ground Surrounding The San Andreas Fault Is ‘Rising And Sinking’

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By Tyler Durden

Over the course of the past few months, the United States has pushed NATO to build up troops on Russia's border, held war games in its backyard, and deployed aircraft carriers to the Mediterranean in order to send a message to Russia of what the US is capable of. The rationale for such actions has always been very vaguely communicated, but as NATO European Command General Philip Breedlove said, it has all been to send a signal of deterrence to Russia.

Granted, over two years ago Russia annexed Crimea, however since that time the turmoil in that area has been relatively quiet. The reality is that, according to General Petr Pavel, chairman of the NATO Military Committee, there is no intelligence that suggests Russia is planning any broad-scale aggression whatsoever.

According to General Pavel, NATO is not contemplating any further troop build-up in Eastern Europe beyond what's already been done, and as Reuters reports, Pavel claims that the build-up was just in hopes of discouraging Russia from orchestrating the kind of campaign it used to annex the Crimea peninsula. However what Pavel said next is most interesting:

“Deployment of substantial military force is not being considered. It is not the aim of NATO to create a military barrier against broad-scale Russian aggression, because such aggression is not on the agenda and no intelligence assessment suggests such a thing.“

Well that's quite a statement, because the actions of the US and NATO have completely contradicted that assessment. If Pavel is correct, and there is no actual intelligence that suggests any aggression is being planned by Russia, then either the US is trying to provoke the country into action on purpose, which is always a possibility, or another possibility is one that we pointed out last week, and that is the Saudi's are pressuring the US to get rid of Assad. If the US accommodates that request from its good friend Saudi Arabia, then a direct conflict with Russia would be imminent, as Russia has made it very clear that the US isn't to take Assad out militarily. If the US knows it is going to go ahead and topple Assad at the behest of the Saudi's, then it would make sense to have an already established force surrounding Russia's border to deter any immediate action.

Whatever the reason for the build-up, we will be watching closely to see how this ultimately plays out.

…read more

Source: NATO General Admits Russia Is Not A Threat To The Region

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By Sprott Money

One Day To Brexit Vote

Posted with permission and written by Craig Hemke, TFMetals Report (CLICK HERE FOR ORIGINAL)

With the Brexit vote coming up tomorrow, today
we should take a moment to consider what should happen with gold
following the outcome.

The first thing you need to know is that this is
NOT a done deal. The assumption since last Thursday is that Brexit will
fail…and it likely will. The City of London almost always gets what
The City of London wants. To think that the hoi polloi will be allowed
to advance an agenda that is NOT in The City’s interests is almost
unfathomable, sort of like those believing that a new Glass-Steagall
will be passed one day in the U.S.. The Financial-Political Complex
overpowers everything through bribery, greed and corruption so to think
that popular opinion would be allowed to override them?…Well, it’s a
long shot.

That said, the polls remain close, and be sure to
check this from ZH. As you know, ole Turd knows a little about
bookmaking so, to me, this makes perfect sense. Essentially, the
bookmaker simply desires equal amounts of money on each side of the
wager. The amount of individual bets tells you something about the
supposed “smart money” but it can be misleading. What this ZH post shows
is that there is a huge amount of individual bets on Brexit but an
equally huge amount of money…in much larger chunks…on Bremain. Now
why would that be? Does the “smart money” know something that the
“squares” do not? Or is someone attempting to influence opinion by
placing big bets in order to drive the odds toward Bremain? This is an
interesting question to consider in the remaining hours before the vote.

And here’s yet another major English newspaper coming out with an endorsement of Brexit: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-3653385/Lies-greedy-elites-divided-dying-Europe-Britain-great-future-outside-broken-EU.html

And don’t forget who reads newspapers and which
is the most likely demographic to turn out in large numbers…old(er)
people. And which group is most likely to reject the EU in favor of
British “patriotism”? Old(er) people. Just sayin’.

So, again, this is far from a done deal, regardless of The City’s desires. Sit tight and be ready. Tomorrow will be fun!

To that end, let’s now talk about gold and the
impact of the vote on paper gold “prices”. It will be easier to discuss
this verbally and we’ll attempt to do so in today’s podcast which, God
willing, I’ll be able to post before 8:00 pm EDT.

Here’s where ole Turd stands…and this is NOT
because “Turd is just a permabull who always says BTFD”. Everything and
every scenario says gold is going to rally, NOT plummet. Why? Let’s list
a few of the reasons:

1. How much “Brexit risk premium” was pumped into gold in the first
   place? Gold was $1213 and down nearly $100 from its highs before the
   June BLSBS put …read more

   Source: One Day To Brexit Vote

       

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By Tyler Durden

Some nostalgia… “some poeple are on the pitch, they think [Brexit]'s all over… it is now!!”

Although we suspect, by this time tomorrow, the sounds from trading floors around the world may be more like this…

Polls point to “Leave” and Bookies' money-flows tipped towards “Leave” today…

It appears the professionals are tracking the polls…

Volume cratered…

Black swan bets soared…

And Short-term VIX soared to 26.5 today, highest since mid-Feb…

Stocks ended the day modestly lower…

Once again the machines tried to run the S&P to 2,100…but as soon as VIX dipped below 18, that was over…and VIX ended above 21

Hedges are bid…

Musk'd!!

Treasury yields ended the day around 2bps lower, helped by a strong auction…

The USDollar Index slid today (4th time in last 6 days)…

As Cable ended the day higher but jerked lower on polls and weather (after an algo meltup at the US open)

Despite a slide in the USDollar, commodities largely trod water with only crude the big mover…

Lower than expected inventory draws and brexit derisking sent crude sharply lower…

Charts: Bloomberg

Bonus Clip: The Countdown has begun…

…read more

Source: Hedges Soar, Markets Snore As Traders Brace For Big Brexit Day

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By Tyler Durden

Two days ago, none other than the man who “broke the Bank of England” in 1992 when the UK was forced out of the ERM, handing Soros a $1.5 billion payday, penned an Op-Ed titled “The Brexit crash will make all of you poorer – be warned” in which he laid out the “facts” saying that “sterling is almost certain to fall steeply and quickly if there is a vote to leave– even more so after yesterday’s rebound as markets reacted to the shift in opinion polls towards remain. I would expect this devaluation to be bigger and more disruptive than the 15% devaluation that occurred in September 1992, when I was fortunate enough to make a substantial profit for my hedge fund investors, at the expense of the Bank of England and the British government.”

Of course, what Soros meant is that in his older and far wealthier years, when his net worth is a function of perpetuating the status quo, he would be “fortunate enough” for nothing to change, for the UK to remain part of the EU, and for the current bout of volatility to pass.

But is he right?

That is the question that Albert Edwards tries to answer today in a note that takes a step back from the scaremongering campaign, and compares the outcome of tomorrow’s events with what happened in September 1992.

First, here is his “big picture” view, showing what happened to UK unemployment in 1992 shortly after “Black Wednesday” – it tumbled alongside the pound.

There is an argument that a Brexit might look similar to the aftermath of sterling?s ignominious exit from the ERM on ?Black Wednesday? 16 September 1992. After this much-feared event, the UK economy actually recovered strongly and unemployment fell sharply (see chart below). In a current environment where central banks and governments have failed to generate a strong enough economic recovery to normalise interest rates amid persistent deflationary pressures, one would have thought a substantial decline in one?s currency would be welcomed ?- for that is one way to inject a modicum of inflation back into the economic system. But even in the event of a Remain vote, sterling is in trouble.

What follows is Edwards’ critique of Soros. This is what he said.

I was reading George Soros? interesting oped in the UK?s pro-Remain Guardian newspaper, under the banner title “The Brexit crash will make all of you poorer – be warned” with the subtitle “My 60 years of experience tells me the pound will plummet, along with your living standards. The only winners will be speculators”. He believes that sterling will decline some 20% from current levels in the event of a Brexit vote, but that comparisons with sterling?s ejection from the ERM in September 1992, when the economy benefited greatly and ?Black Wednesday? was renamed ?Happy Wednesday?, are wrong. People might forget that back in 1992 we were told by the then Government of the day that leaving the ERM would be disaster as …read more

Source: Is Soros Wrong?

    

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By Tyler Durden

You know the establishment is paniccing when they roll out Bono (and Liam Neeson) to appeal to the Irish (which make up around 10% of the UK electorate) to vote “Remain” or face “the worst ramifications.” As The Irish Times reports, U2 warns “a Brexit vote will make us weak,” suggesting a vote to ‘Leave’ would mean Thursday bloody Thursday and a vote to ‘Stay’ would be a Beautiful Day.

Irish4Europe communications director David D’Arcy said: “Irish represent up to 10 per cent of the UK electorate and we are asking each and every one of those Irish voters to make voting Remain their first task tomorrow.” And as The Irish Times reports,

Irish musicians U2 have backed a remain vote in Britain’s European Union referendum, saying Europe without Britain seems unimaginable.

The band posted a video on its Facebook page from British Irish group Irish4Europe. The video says a vote to leave the European Union could damage progress in Northern Ireland.

“We were asked to repost this video, we like it and we’re humbled to be in it. For Irish voters in Britain, don’t go we’d miss you… Europe without Britain seems unimaginable to us. Bono, Edge, Adam, Larry,” U2 wrote.

Bono had previously noted,

“Europe is America’s most important ally since the Second World War.

“Are we not your most important ally in the fight against violent extremism? This should really matter to you. I know it does.

“Put simply, as we Europeans have learned, if the Middle East catches fire, the flames jump any border controls. And if Africa fails, Europe cannot succeed.”

Separately, Irish actor Liam Neeson added his voice to the campaign, also urging voters remain in the EU.

“I would like to lend my voice to Irish4Europe’s campaign to encourage Irish citizens to vote for the UK to remain in the EU.

“A UK exit would have the worst ramifications for the island of Ireland. Economically, this would be a backwards step for Ireland.

“Border controls would be implemented to allegedly stop illegal immigrants coming into the UK through the back door. Trade will be enormously impacted. It would be truly a shame to sacrifice all the progress that has been made by the peace process regarding border controls. There is strength in unity. A Brexit vote will make us weak. I urge you to go out and vote to remain in the EU.”

Finally, we note that Bono has recently claimed the continent faces a wave of “hyper-nationalism” before warning that Britons could vote to leave the EU on June 23. The rock legend, best known for 1987 hit With and Without You, said:

“This is unthinkable stuff. And you should be very nervous in America about it.”

…read more

Source: With Or Without You? U2 Urges Irish Brits To Vote "Remain"

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By Tyler Durden

Stocks and sterling are sliding once again as a second poll hits showing “leave” leading massively 49% Leave vs 42% Remain…

Using methodology applied to the previous TNS poll (likely voters) gives Leave a 7pt lead. New methodology (and all voters) Leave lead by 2.

— Britain Elects (@britainelects) June 22, 2016

Pounded…

Slammed…

Charts: Bloomberg

…read more

Source: Sterling, Stocks Slammed After TNS Poll Shows Major Lead For "Leave"

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The state of Rio de Janeiro is set to receive an $850 million federal bailout just seven weeks before the Olympic Games begin. …read more

Source: Rio gets huge Brazil bailout weeks before Olympics

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By Tyler Durden

Submitted by Claudio Grass via Acting-Man.com,

Mutating Promises

We are less than 24 hours away from the EU referendum, the moment when the British people will be called upon to make a historic decision – will they vote to “Brexit” or to “Bremain”? Both camps have been going at each other with fierce campaigns to tilt the vote in their direction, but according to the latest polls, with the “Leave” camp’s latest surge still within the margin of error, the outcome is too close to call.

The battle lines are drawn….

It is a rare moment in history. The British haven’t had their say since they voted to join the European Community back in 1975. What was initially thought of as a project to unite Europe into one common market, with the benefits of free trade and great promises of increasing national wealth, has mutated into a completely different entity.

The British have, instead, found themselves being dragged into a regional economy of zero growth, a weak currency and heavily indebted states. You may have come across the arguments of both camps, but here we wish to address what a “Brexit” or “Bremain” scenario would mean for Britain.

If the UK Bremains…

If the British vote to “Bremain”, Britain will start to operate with a “special status” within the union, after Prime Minister David Cameron reportedly renegotiated Britain’s relationship with the EU, in anticipation of the referendum. Cameron tried to change some of the rules of the agreement, to address the concerns of the British public that made them favor a Brexit in the first place.

The matter of ‘sovereignty’ came first in the list of the most common anti-EU grievances, as the public felt the country no longer had a say in its own affairs, and was pressured to comply with EU regulations as part of the greater union. Cameron succeeded in having the UK released from any commitment to be politically integrated into the EU body, and there were talks about granting some autonomy and power to national parliaments, through the “red card mechanism” (i.e. if 55% of national parliaments object to one vote, they can block a proposal submitted by the European Commission).

This proposal, however, does not in any way alter the UK-EU relationship, while it is also unlikely to be practically enforced, much like the preexisting “yellow” card that has only been used twice so far. Thus, British autonomy, specifically, remains unaddressed.

When it comes to economic self-governance, Cameron got an explicit recognition that the Euro is not the single currency of the EU, and that the UK will not be pressured to contribute to euro zone bailouts. But what about the British economy itself? British businesses have long complained about losing competitiveness. In general, the EU single market makes it easier to move money and products and grants businesses a large consumer base.

However, the data released by the Office for National Statistics cast a different light on this point: Europe has become a less important trading partner. In …read more

Source: Toward Freedom: Will The UK Write History?

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By Tyler Durden

On the heels of FHFA reporting a disappointing 0.2% home price appreciation in April (the weakest since Jan 2015), May existing home sales rose, as expected by 1.8% MoM to 5.53mm SAAR – the highest since February 2007. All regions saw median home prices rise MoM (but Northeast -0.1% YoY) but The Midwest stood out with a 6.5% drop in sales. Median home prices jumped to a record $239,700 (up 4.7% YoY) but first time homeowners are disappearing, as NAR's Larry Yun notes a lack of inventory is “pushing prices out of reach for plenty of prospective first-time buyers.”

Home Sales at highest since Feb 2007…

FHFA reporteed a very modest rise in home prices…

But NAR reports median homeprices now at record highs…

Surpassing the peak median sales price set last June ($236,300), the median existing-home price for all housing types in May was $239,700, up 4.7 percent from May 2015 ($228,900). May's price increase marks the 51st consecutive month of year-over-year gains.

Total housing inventory at the end of May rose 1.4 percent to 2.15 million existing homes available for sale, but is still 5.7 percent lower than a year ago (2.28 million). Unsold inventory is at a 4.7-month supply at the current sales pace, which is unchanged from April.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says existing sales continue to hum along, rising in May for the third consecutive month.

“This spring's sustained period of ultra-low mortgage rates has certainly been a worthy incentive to buy a home, but the primary driver in the increase in sales is more homeowners realizing the equity they've accumulated in recent years and finally deciding to trade-up or downsize,” he said.

With first-time buyers still struggling to enter the market, repeat buyers using the proceeds from the sale of their previous home as their down payment are making up the bulk of home purchases right now.”

“Barring further deceleration in job growth that could ultimately temper demand from these repeat buyers, sales have the potential to mostly maintain their current pace through the summer.”

“Existing inventory remains subdued throughout much of the country and continues to lag even last year's deficient amount,” adds Yun.

“While new home construction has thankfully crept higher so far this year, there's still a glaring need for even more, to help alleviate the supply pressures that are severely limiting choices and pushing prices out of reach for plenty of prospective first-time buyers.“

So to translate – new entrants are blocked by crushing unaffordability but exiting homeowners just keep flipping to higher and higher leverage.

Charts: Bloomberg

…read more

Source: Existing Home Sales Highest Since Feb 2007 As Prices Hit Record High

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