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By Tyler Durden

There is an eerie quiet across markets, one day before the year’s main risk event: with the UK referendum vote starting in less than 24 hours and results due out shortly after, it is as if even the algos have stopped frontrunning other algos, in a market so thin and illiquid even the smallest order can result in a gap, either higher or lower. As a result, European, Asian stocks and S&P futures are little changed ahead of Thursday, with the Stoxx Europe 600 Index swinging between gains and losses more than five times so far today.

As Chihiro Ohta, a senior strategist at SMBC Nikko Securities Inc. in Tokyo summarized: “what investors hate the most is uncertainty. Most are just waiting on the sidelines to see what happens.” Apparently Chihiro – as well as Janet Yellen – forgot that there is no such thing as certainty in the market, or least there wasn’t before central bankers took over.

So for now, as “sidelined” investors wait, the MSCI All-Country World Index was little changed following three days of gains as bookmakers’ odds implied there’s only about a one-in-four chance that Britons will opt to leave the EU in Thursday’s referendum, even as the FT poll of polls gives Leave a small advantage. Sterling rose against most of its 16 peers and shares in emerging markets advanced for a fourth day. Crude oil was set to close above $50 a barrel for the first time in almost two weeks following yesterday’s sharp drop in inventories according to API.

As we approach Friday, the first day when Brexit will be in the rearview mirror, the question is how much of a “Remain” vote has been priced in: global stocks have climbed in the past three days as odds of a so-called Brexit fell at betting shops after the murder of a U.K. lawmaker who favored staying in the EU on Thursday. The implied chance of a leave vote dropped to about 25 percent from 43 percent a week ago.

Here is how Deutsche Bank evaluates the market-implied odds:

The shift in opinion poll momentum towards ‘remain’ over the weekend has perhaps reversed a touch over the last 48 hours and the FT poll of polls is still forecasting a close run outcome. The betting market though suggests a much greater bias towards ‘remain’ and is currently predicting a 79.4% chance of success based on the Bloomberg indicator of political odds at bookmakers. That’s at the upper end of what’s been a wide range over the last month or so. Indeed the implied probability peaked at around 85% back at the end of May – where it held for some 10 days or so – before then toughing to a low of 61% intraday on the 16th June. So the probability is now 6% off the highs and 18% up from the lows. Whether this high number has an inbuilt expectation of a late shift towards the status quo (as with Quebec and Scotland …read more

Source: Eerie Calm Across Markets One Day Before The Main Event: Asia, Europe, US Unchanged

    

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Japanese automaker Mitsubishi Motors says it expects to post a net loss of $1.4 billion for the current financial year. …read more

Source: Fuel scandal drives Mitsubishi to first loss in 8 years

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By Tyler Durden

Submitted by Giulio Meotti via The Gatestone Institute,

It all occurred in the same week. A German judge banned a comedian, Jan Böhmermann, from repeating “obscene” verses of his famous poem about Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. A Danish theater apparently cancelled “The Satanic Verses” from its season, due to fear of “reprisals.” Two French music festivals dropped Eagles of Death Metal — the U.S. band that was performing at the Bataclan theater in Paris when the attack by ISIS terrorists (89 people murdered), took place there — because of “Islamophobic” comments by Jesse Hughes, its lead singer. Hughes suggested that Muslims be subjected to greater scrutiny, saying “It's okay to be discerning when it comes to Muslims in this day and age,” later adding:

“They know there's a whole group of white kids out there who are stupid and blind. You have these affluent white kids who have grown up in a liberal curriculum from the time they were in kindergarten, inundated with these lofty notions that are just hot air.”

As Brendan O'Neill wrote, “Western liberals are doing their dirty work for them; they're silencing the people Isis judged to be blasphemous; they're completing Isis's act of terror.”

A few weeks earlier, France's most important publishing house, Gallimard, fired its most famous editor, Richard Millet, who had penned an essay in which he wrote:

“the decline of literature and the deep changes wrought in France and Europe by continuous and extensive immigration from outside Europe, with its intimidating elements of militant Salafism and of the political correctness at the heart of global capitalism; that is to say, the risk of the destruction of the Europe and its cultural humanism, or Christian humanism, in the name of 'humanism' in its 'multicultural' version.”

Kenneth Baker just published a new book, On the Burning of Books: How Flames Fail to Destroy the Written Word. It is a compendium of so called “bibliocaust,” the burning of books from Caliph Omar to Hitler, and includes the fatwa on Salman Rushdie. When Nazis incinerated books in Berlin they declared that from the ashes of these novels …read more

Source: How Much Of Our Culture Are We Surrendering To Islam?

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By Tyler Durden

Draghi, we have a problem.

The European Central Bank's balance sheet has reached a new record high this week – surpassing the chaotic expansion peak in 2012 – as Mario Draghi prepares to unleash TLTRO-II, which will definitely increase this time (just like LTRO and NIRP didn't!)

“Fool me once” in 2011/12 but not in 2015/16.

Given the utter failure to create any 'real' economic gains via the expansion of the ECB balance sheet, the plunge in stock prices (and thus crushing the trickle-down wealth-creation mandate) leaves Draghi in the same boat as Yellen – utterly impotent.

Which is ironic because this is what Draghi just said…

• *DRAGHI SAYS ECB ACTION PUT RECOVERY ON MORE SOLID FOOTING
• *DRAGHI SAYS GROWTH, INFLATION WOULD BE LOWER WITHOUT ECB ACTION

Though we'll never know, can you imagine just how bad things are in reality?

…read more

Source: ECB Balance Sheet Hits Record High (With Stocks At 18-Month Lows)

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By Tyler Durden

Submitted by Frank Hollenbeck via The Mises Institute,

The United Kingdom will tomorrow vote either to leave or remain in the European Union. This is the most important European event of this century since it will likely have important domino effects for the rest of Europe.

A recent poll showed that if the UK could keep free trade with EU nations, the British people would vote overwhelmingly to leave the EU. To drum up support for staying in the EU, the UK government and quasi-government agencies, like the IMF and OECD, have issued continuous warnings about the costs of such a divorce. The IMF recently reiterated its forecasts that Brexit would have a significant negative effect on the UK economy with a drop in GDP anywhere between 1% and 9% over the long term.

The reality is that Brexit would probably only have a minor initial impact on trade or GDP and, on the contrary, would open up vast possibilities for the UK to exploit trade relations with other faster growing regions of the world without having to reach complex trade agreements that satisfy the vested interests of the other 28 members of the EU.

The impact of Brexit on trade has been grossly exaggerated. In today's world, a product has parts coming from all over the world. A BMW is only called German because of historical association. In reality, the steel in a BMW may come from Brazil or China, the upholstery from the UK, the engine from France, and the electronics from the USA. Labor costs are only 10% of a car and some may even be foreign labor. Also, profits are distributed to BMW shareholders and bondholders which are more likely to be sent to a hedge fund in Japan than to the mechanic in Dusseldorf. The world is massively economically integrated. Relatively free trade and free movement of capital is no longer an option for most countries, whether it is the UK or any of the other countries in the EU. That boat sailed years ago!

Trade restrictions and capital controls are no longer a countries’ choice: either you participate in the world economy or accept living standards equivalent to that of North Korea or Venezuela. So the issue is NOT whether the UK will continue to trade mostly freely with the EU: it will, because today there is no other choice: and the same is true for the other countries of the EU. Despite French threats of a bloody Brexit, Germany, which runs its second largest bilateral trade surplus with the UK, has little interest in starting a trade war, nor do most of the private interests in the rest of Europe.

If the UK government is really concerned about trade, it has the power to significantly increase both its exports and living standards. It only has to remove any impediments to imports. We must never forget that imports are intractably linked to exports. What is true of …read more

Source: Britain Doesn’t Need The EU To Thrive

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By Tyler Durden

First it was The Fed's Janet Yellen coming “as close to capitulation on monetary policy's lack of efficacy,” and now The Bank of Japan's Kuroda appears to have had an epiphany. In a stream of truth-filled consciousness unheard of for central planners, the governor admitted, among other things, that “monetary policy doesn't always turn out as expected,” and that “many economists don't think financial markets always right,” implying, of course, that he and his brethren know better. It appears that as central bank credibility collapses, so the central bankers themselves are having their own 'Greenspan'-moment when their life's work is finally proven entirely pointless.

The results of monetary and fiscal policies don’t always turn out as expected, Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda says in an interview on TV Tokyo, aired early on Wednesday.

Nope!

His additional comments were just as ironic:

• FX and stock markets sometimes move too much.
• Many economists don’t think financial makets are always right.
• Kuroda says his personality is cautiously optimistic.

Nope!

Given all that, now consider the following, excerpted from Kuroda’s opening remarks at the 2015 BOJ-IMES Conference:

The issues I have raised so far are all complex, and there are no quick, definitive solutions for them. Nevertheless, I strongly believe that, at this one-and-a-half day conference, we will address the issues we currently face and find our way forward through lively discussions. I trust that many of you are familiar with the story of Peter Pan, in which it says, “the moment you doubt whether you can fly, you cease forever to be able to do it.” Yes, what we need is a positive attitude and conviction. Indeed, each time central banks have been confronted with a wide range of problems, they have overcome the problems by conceiving new solutions.

* * *

With that, Kuroda has just confirmed that DM central banks are literally relying on a fairy tale to keep the global economy and financial system afloat.

At least he's being honest for once.

…read more

Source: Did Bank Of Japan’s Kuroda Just "Capitulate" Too?

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The number of people spending half their income on rent hit a record high in 2014, according to the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University. …read more

Source: 11 million Americans spend half their income on rent

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By Tyler Durden

Submitted by Mac Slavo via SHTFPlan.com,

As if California doesn’t have enough problems already…

The big one is believed to be due every century or so along major fault lines – and California is long overdue. Eventually, there is just too much built up pressure that must be released.

Although experts don’t know when a major earthquake may hit the San Andreas fault, they expect that it is simply inevitable and have warned for years about mitigating the disaster to come.

Sadly, few of those warnings have been heeded, and major destruction is likely to someday affect, directly or indirectly, most of the tens of millions of residents who live in or near Los Angeles and the surrounding area.

Here are some of the simulations of what they officially say could happen. In reality, the damage and the secondary effect on social order could have an even greater impact:

And the real world data is troubling as well.

Now, researchers have been able to model that build up of pressure along the tectonic plates of the San Andreas using new GPS techniques that have allowed more information:

Analysis of GPS data has revealed new areas of motion around the San Andreas Fault System.

Using data collected by the EarthScope Plate Boundary Observatory’s GPS array, researchers identified 125-mile-wide “lobes” of uplift and subsidence. Over the last several years, the lobes, which straddle the fault line, have hosted a few millimeters of annual movement.

[…]

Lead author Samuel Howell, a researcher at the University of Hawaii at Manoa, explained in a news release. “Using this technique, we were able to break down the noisy signals to isolate a simple vertical motion pattern that curiously straddled the San Andreas fault.”

Researcher Bridget Smith-Konter said: “The powerful combination of a priori model predictions and a unique analysis of vertical GPS data led us to confirm that the buildup of century-long earthquake cycle forces within the crust are a dominant source of the observed vertical motion signal.“

“Using this technique, we were able to break down the noisy signals to isolate a simple vertical motion pattern that curiously straddled the San Andreas fault.“

As SHTF recently reported, the news is not good.

According to the leading scientists in the study of tectonic plates and movements, earthquakes must periodically relieve plate pressure (about 16 feet worth of movement every century), but that has not happened on the San Andreas fault during that time period – in fact, the event is overdue.

Scientists have renewed their warnings that the faultline “looks like it’s locked, loaded and ready to go.” As the L.A. Times reported:

Southern California’s section of the San Andreas fault is “locked, loaded and ready to roll,” a leading earthquake scientist said Wednesday at the National Earthquake Conference in Long Beach.

The San Andreas fault is one of California’s most dangerous, and is the state’s longest fault. Yet for Southern California, the last big earthquake to strike the southern San Andreas was in 1857, when a magnitude …read more

Source: Is This The Big One? Large-Scale Motion Detected Near San Andreas Fault

    

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