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Hedges Soar, Markets Snore As Traders Brace For Big Brexit Day

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By Tyler Durden

Some nostalgia… “some poeple are on the pitch, they think [Brexit]'s all over… it is now!!”

Although we suspect, by this time tomorrow, the sounds from trading floors around the world may be more like this…

Polls point to “Leave” and Bookies' money-flows tipped towards “Leave” today…

It appears the professionals are tracking the polls…

Volume cratered…

Black swan bets soared…

And Short-term VIX soared to 26.5 today, highest since mid-Feb…

Stocks ended the day modestly lower…

Once again the machines tried to run the S&P to 2,100…but as soon as VIX dipped below 18, that was over…and VIX ended above 21

Hedges are bid…

Musk'd!!

Treasury yields ended the day around 2bps lower, helped by a strong auction…

The USDollar Index slid today (4th time in last 6 days)…

As Cable ended the day higher but jerked lower on polls and weather (after an algo meltup at the US open)

Despite a slide in the USDollar, commodities largely trod water with only crude the big mover…

Lower than expected inventory draws and brexit derisking sent crude sharply lower…

Charts: Bloomberg

Bonus Clip: The Countdown has begun…

…read more

Source: Hedges Soar, Markets Snore As Traders Brace For Big Brexit Day

    

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Is Soros Wrong?

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By Tyler Durden

Two days ago, none other than the man who “broke the Bank of England” in 1992 when the UK was forced out of the ERM, handing Soros a $1.5 billion payday, penned an Op-Ed titled “The Brexit crash will make all of you poorer – be warned” in which he laid out the “facts” saying that “sterling is almost certain to fall steeply and quickly if there is a vote to leave– even more so after yesterday’s rebound as markets reacted to the shift in opinion polls towards remain. I would expect this devaluation to be bigger and more disruptive than the 15% devaluation that occurred in September 1992, when I was fortunate enough to make a substantial profit for my hedge fund investors, at the expense of the Bank of England and the British government.”

Of course, what Soros meant is that in his older and far wealthier years, when his net worth is a function of perpetuating the status quo, he would be “fortunate enough” for nothing to change, for the UK to remain part of the EU, and for the current bout of volatility to pass.

But is he right?

That is the question that Albert Edwards tries to answer today in a note that takes a step back from the scaremongering campaign, and compares the outcome of tomorrow’s events with what happened in September 1992.

First, here is his “big picture” view, showing what happened to UK unemployment in 1992 shortly after “Black Wednesday” – it tumbled alongside the pound.

There is an argument that a Brexit might look similar to the aftermath of sterling?s ignominious exit from the ERM on ?Black Wednesday? 16 September 1992. After this much-feared event, the UK economy actually recovered strongly and unemployment fell sharply (see chart below). In a current environment where central banks and governments have failed to generate a strong enough economic recovery to normalise interest rates amid persistent deflationary pressures, one would have thought a substantial decline in one?s currency would be welcomed ?- for that is one way to inject a modicum of inflation back into the economic system. But even in the event of a Remain vote, sterling is in trouble.

What follows is Edwards’ critique of Soros. This is what he said.

I was reading George Soros? interesting oped in the UK?s pro-Remain Guardian newspaper, under the banner title “The Brexit crash will make all of you poorer – be warned” with the subtitle “My 60 years of experience tells me the pound will plummet, along with your living standards. The only winners will be speculators”. He believes that sterling will decline some 20% from current levels in the event of a Brexit vote, but that comparisons with sterling?s ejection from the ERM in September 1992, when the economy benefited greatly and ?Black Wednesday? was renamed ?Happy Wednesday?, are wrong. People might forget that back in 1992 we were told by the then Government of the day that leaving the ERM would be disaster as …read more

Source: Is Soros Wrong?

    

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With Or Without You? U2 Urges Irish Brits To Vote "Remain"

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By Tyler Durden

You know the establishment is paniccing when they roll out Bono (and Liam Neeson) to appeal to the Irish (which make up around 10% of the UK electorate) to vote “Remain” or face “the worst ramifications.” As The Irish Times reports, U2 warns “a Brexit vote will make us weak,” suggesting a vote to ‘Leave’ would mean Thursday bloody Thursday and a vote to ‘Stay’ would be a Beautiful Day.

Irish4Europe communications director David D’Arcy said: “Irish represent up to 10 per cent of the UK electorate and we are asking each and every one of those Irish voters to make voting Remain their first task tomorrow.” And as The Irish Times reports,

Irish musicians U2 have backed a remain vote in Britain’s European Union referendum, saying Europe without Britain seems unimaginable.

The band posted a video on its Facebook page from British Irish group Irish4Europe. The video says a vote to leave the European Union could damage progress in Northern Ireland.

“We were asked to repost this video, we like it and we’re humbled to be in it. For Irish voters in Britain, don’t go we’d miss you… Europe without Britain seems unimaginable to us. Bono, Edge, Adam, Larry,” U2 wrote.

Bono had previously noted,

“Europe is America’s most important ally since the Second World War.

“Are we not your most important ally in the fight against violent extremism? This should really matter to you. I know it does.

“Put simply, as we Europeans have learned, if the Middle East catches fire, the flames jump any border controls. And if Africa fails, Europe cannot succeed.”

Separately, Irish actor Liam Neeson added his voice to the campaign, also urging voters remain in the EU.

“I would like to lend my voice to Irish4Europe’s campaign to encourage Irish citizens to vote for the UK to remain in the EU.

“A UK exit would have the worst ramifications for the island of Ireland. Economically, this would be a backwards step for Ireland.

“Border controls would be implemented to allegedly stop illegal immigrants coming into the UK through the back door. Trade will be enormously impacted. It would be truly a shame to sacrifice all the progress that has been made by the peace process regarding border controls. There is strength in unity. A Brexit vote will make us weak. I urge you to go out and vote to remain in the EU.”

Finally, we note that Bono has recently claimed the continent faces a wave of “hyper-nationalism” before warning that Britons could vote to leave the EU on June 23. The rock legend, best known for 1987 hit With and Without You, said:

“This is unthinkable stuff. And you should be very nervous in America about it.”

…read more

Source: With Or Without You? U2 Urges Irish Brits To Vote "Remain"

    

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Sterling, Stocks Slammed After TNS Poll Shows Major Lead For "Leave"

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By Tyler Durden

Stocks and sterling are sliding once again as a second poll hits showing “leave” leading massively 49% Leave vs 42% Remain…

Using methodology applied to the previous TNS poll (likely voters) gives Leave a 7pt lead. New methodology (and all voters) Leave lead by 2.

— Britain Elects (@britainelects) June 22, 2016

Pounded…

Slammed…

Charts: Bloomberg

…read more

Source: Sterling, Stocks Slammed After TNS Poll Shows Major Lead For "Leave"

    

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Rio gets huge Brazil bailout weeks before Olympics

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The state of Rio de Janeiro is set to receive an $850 million federal bailout just seven weeks before the Olympic Games begin. …read more

Source: Rio gets huge Brazil bailout weeks before Olympics

    

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Toward Freedom: Will The UK Write History?

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By Tyler Durden

1-UK_trade_balance_EU_2000_2014

Submitted by Claudio Grass via Acting-Man.com,

Mutating Promises

We are less than 24 hours away from the EU referendum, the moment when the British people will be called upon to make a historic decision – will they vote to “Brexit” or to “Bremain”? Both camps have been going at each other with fierce campaigns to tilt the vote in their direction, but according to the latest polls, with the “Leave” camp’s latest surge still within the margin of error, the outcome is too close to call.

The battle lines are drawn….

It is a rare moment in history. The British haven’t had their say since they voted to join the European Community back in 1975. What was initially thought of as a project to unite Europe into one common market, with the benefits of free trade and great promises of increasing national wealth, has mutated into a completely different entity.

The British have, instead, found themselves being dragged into a regional economy of zero growth, a weak currency and heavily indebted states. You may have come across the arguments of both camps, but here we wish to address what a “Brexit” or “Bremain” scenario would mean for Britain.

If the UK Bremains…

If the British vote to “Bremain”, Britain will start to operate with a “special status” within the union, after Prime Minister David Cameron reportedly renegotiated Britain’s relationship with the EU, in anticipation of the referendum. Cameron tried to change some of the rules of the agreement, to address the concerns of the British public that made them favor a Brexit in the first place.

The matter of ‘sovereignty’ came first in the list of the most common anti-EU grievances, as the public felt the country no longer had a say in its own affairs, and was pressured to comply with EU regulations as part of the greater union. Cameron succeeded in having the UK released from any commitment to be politically integrated into the EU body, and there were talks about granting some autonomy and power to national parliaments, through the “red card mechanism” (i.e. if 55% of national parliaments object to one vote, they can block a proposal submitted by the European Commission).

This proposal, however, does not in any way alter the UK-EU relationship, while it is also unlikely to be practically enforced, much like the preexisting “yellow” card that has only been used twice so far. Thus, British autonomy, specifically, remains unaddressed.

When it comes to economic self-governance, Cameron got an explicit recognition that the Euro is not the single currency of the EU, and that the UK will not be pressured to contribute to euro zone bailouts. But what about the British economy itself? British businesses have long complained about losing competitiveness. In general, the EU single market makes it easier to move money and products and grants businesses a large consumer base.

However, the data released by the Office for National Statistics cast a different light on this point: Europe has become a less important trading partner. In …read more

Source: Toward Freedom: Will The UK Write History?

    

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Existing Home Sales Highest Since Feb 2007 As Prices Hit Record High

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By Tyler Durden

On the heels of FHFA reporting a disappointing 0.2% home price appreciation in April (the weakest since Jan 2015), May existing home sales rose, as expected by 1.8% MoM to 5.53mm SAAR – the highest since February 2007. All regions saw median home prices rise MoM (but Northeast -0.1% YoY) but The Midwest stood out with a 6.5% drop in sales. Median home prices jumped to a record $239,700 (up 4.7% YoY) but first time homeowners are disappearing, as NAR's Larry Yun notes a lack of inventory is “pushing prices out of reach for plenty of prospective first-time buyers.”

Home Sales at highest since Feb 2007…

FHFA reporteed a very modest rise in home prices…

But NAR reports median homeprices now at record highs…

Surpassing the peak median sales price set last June ($236,300), the median existing-home price for all housing types in May was $239,700, up 4.7 percent from May 2015 ($228,900). May's price increase marks the 51st consecutive month of year-over-year gains.

Total housing inventory at the end of May rose 1.4 percent to 2.15 million existing homes available for sale, but is still 5.7 percent lower than a year ago (2.28 million). Unsold inventory is at a 4.7-month supply at the current sales pace, which is unchanged from April.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says existing sales continue to hum along, rising in May for the third consecutive month.

“This spring's sustained period of ultra-low mortgage rates has certainly been a worthy incentive to buy a home, but the primary driver in the increase in sales is more homeowners realizing the equity they've accumulated in recent years and finally deciding to trade-up or downsize,” he said.

With first-time buyers still struggling to enter the market, repeat buyers using the proceeds from the sale of their previous home as their down payment are making up the bulk of home purchases right now.”

“Barring further deceleration in job growth that could ultimately temper demand from these repeat buyers, sales have the potential to mostly maintain their current pace through the summer.”

“Existing inventory remains subdued throughout much of the country and continues to lag even last year's deficient amount,” adds Yun.

“While new home construction has thankfully crept higher so far this year, there's still a glaring need for even more, to help alleviate the supply pressures that are severely limiting choices and pushing prices out of reach for plenty of prospective first-time buyers.“

So to translate – new entrants are blocked by crushing unaffordability but exiting homeowners just keep flipping to higher and higher leverage.

Charts: Bloomberg

…read more

Source: Existing Home Sales Highest Since Feb 2007 As Prices Hit Record High

    

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Something Strange Emerges When Looking Behind The "Brexit" Bookie Odds

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By Tyler Durden

Two days ago we pointed out something surprising: according to Ladbrokes’ head of political betting, Matthew Shaddick, the key catalyst that moved bookie odds on Monday morning, the first day after the suspended campaign in the aftermath of Jo Cox murder was resumed, “we took a £25,000 bet on Remain this morning which helped move the odds in their direction.” This in turn unleashed a global asset surge, as markets rebounded on expectations the Leave campaign was losing momentum, even as actual polls – still neck and neck – did not validate such an observation.

Earlier today, Bloomberg confirmed as much:

Investors are piling money into bets on a victory for the “Remain” campaign, led by Prime Minister David Cameron. The pound has surged to a five-month high and European stocks just posted their biggest three-day gain in almost a year, with the U.K.’s benchmark index erasing its monthly decline. Bookmakers have shortened their odds on a vote to stay.

Polls, meanwhile, say the race is too close to call after a swing toward the “Leave” campaign came to an apparent halt last week following the murder of Labour Party lawmaker Jo Cox, a supporter of staying in the EU.

“Rising anticipation that ‘Remain’ will win the vote is driving the market,” said John Plassard, a senior equity-sales trader at Mirabaud Securities in Geneva. “Even if polls are close, people are paying more attention to the bookmakers because that was a much better predictor in past referendums.”

Talking to CNBC, Shaddik quantified the latest odds, which not surprisingly, put Remain’s chances of success some three times greater than those of Leave: “at the moment, the odds are suggesting there is a 76 percent chance the U.K. will vote to stay in the European Union”, once again caveating that this is “despite the polls still showing this is more or less a dead heat.”

But is that really the case?

When one looks at the actual dynamics within the bookies, an odd divergence emerges. As Shaddick said, when looking at the underlying flows determining bookie odds, there is a very clear divergence when it comes to number of bets versus the amount of any given bet: “Although Ladbrokes has received a higher volume of bets to leave the EU, those making a punt on remain were placing higher financially larger. Shaddick revealed the average stake on a bet to remain was £450, compared to £75 on a bet to leave.”

In other words, a few large bettors are skewing the bookie odds dramatically in the favor of Remain, even as the mass of bettors is betting on Leave, albeit with smaller cash amounts. Another way of putting it: a substantially outsized influence by a wealthy minority over the poor majority, just like in every other aspect of life.

Moments ago Ladbrokes confirmed as much when it pointed out that while the probability of Brexit remains at only 24%, two thirds or 62% of all bets being placed today are for …read more

Source: Something Strange Emerges When Looking Behind The "Brexit" Bookie Odds

    

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Forget Brexit: According To Albert Edwards, There Is A Far Bigger Risk To The Global Economy

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By Tyler Durden

While SocGen’s Albert Edwards has opined previously on the topic of Brexit (with an apparent interest in a “leave” outcome), overnight he once again revisits the only thing that matters to markets over the next 24 hours, and looks at the possible outcome of a second “Black Wednesday”, an event that could send the sterling plunging, from the prism of George Soros’ recent op-ed predicting doom and gloom should the British currency rapidly devalue, and concluding that he disagrees:

“thinking about this from the point of view of my Ice Age thesis, where interest rates cannot be normalised because of economic weakness and deflation pressures persisting throughout this recovery, I would have thought a 20% sterling devaluation is exactly the antidote needed in the current circumstances.“

We will have more to say on Edwards’ comparison of Brexit to Black Wednesday and how the potential outcome, like back in 1992, may actually end up being a blessing in disguise for the UK economy, should Leave end up winning. Ultimate outcome for the UK aside, however – and Edwards believes that the pound will “fall with or without Brexit” – In this we will focus on what according to the SocGen strategist is a far bigger risk to the global economy – the same risk that defined risk for the entire second half of 2016: China’s devaluation, which has returned, only this time it is far more strealthy which may explain why the market has largely ignored it for now.

Here is Albert:

The UK referendum is neck and neck. Commentators think it so close that the deciding factor could be whether it rains on Thursday – with rain seen reducing the Remain vote. How mad is that? One year ago we wrote that the UK economy was a ticking time bomb. The ticking has got even louder. The UK economy is a mess and that has nothing to do with Brexit – it has everything to do with economic mismanagement. We studiously take no view on the outcome of the vote; we simply discuss the possible implications of a sharp decline in sterling in the event of Brexit. But there is an argument that global investors have overly focused on Brexit at the expense of other more important macro events. We believe China’s ongoing stealth devaluation of the renminbi is far more important for the global economy.

* * *

The UK economy is a mess ? see ?The UK is a ticking time bomb?. I think sterling will end up falling substantially whether the UK stays or leaves the EU – it is just a matter of timing.

That’s the “good news” (and we will have more shortly). Here is the bad news:

Meanwhile, our attention has been diverted. China has embarked on a stealth devaluation of the renminbi. Its new trade-weighted currency basket has fallen 10% since just before its initial August 2015 devaluation (white line in chart below) and it has continued to decline since January even as the Rmb/dollar …read more

Source: Forget Brexit: According To Albert Edwards, There Is A Far Bigger Risk To The Global Economy

    

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Eerie Calm Across Markets One Day Before The Main Event: Asia, Europe, US Unchanged

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By Tyler Durden

There is an eerie quiet across markets, one day before the year’s main risk event: with the UK referendum vote starting in less than 24 hours and results due out shortly after, it is as if even the algos have stopped frontrunning other algos, in a market so thin and illiquid even the smallest order can result in a gap, either higher or lower. As a result, European, Asian stocks and S&P futures are little changed ahead of Thursday, with the Stoxx Europe 600 Index swinging between gains and losses more than five times so far today.

As Chihiro Ohta, a senior strategist at SMBC Nikko Securities Inc. in Tokyo summarized: “what investors hate the most is uncertainty. Most are just waiting on the sidelines to see what happens.” Apparently Chihiro – as well as Janet Yellen – forgot that there is no such thing as certainty in the market, or least there wasn’t before central bankers took over.

So for now, as “sidelined” investors wait, the MSCI All-Country World Index was little changed following three days of gains as bookmakers’ odds implied there’s only about a one-in-four chance that Britons will opt to leave the EU in Thursday’s referendum, even as the FT poll of polls gives Leave a small advantage. Sterling rose against most of its 16 peers and shares in emerging markets advanced for a fourth day. Crude oil was set to close above $50 a barrel for the first time in almost two weeks following yesterday’s sharp drop in inventories according to API.

As we approach Friday, the first day when Brexit will be in the rearview mirror, the question is how much of a “Remain” vote has been priced in: global stocks have climbed in the past three days as odds of a so-called Brexit fell at betting shops after the murder of a U.K. lawmaker who favored staying in the EU on Thursday. The implied chance of a leave vote dropped to about 25 percent from 43 percent a week ago.

Here is how Deutsche Bank evaluates the market-implied odds:

The shift in opinion poll momentum towards ‘remain’ over the weekend has perhaps reversed a touch over the last 48 hours and the FT poll of polls is still forecasting a close run outcome. The betting market though suggests a much greater bias towards ‘remain’ and is currently predicting a 79.4% chance of success based on the Bloomberg indicator of political odds at bookmakers. That’s at the upper end of what’s been a wide range over the last month or so. Indeed the implied probability peaked at around 85% back at the end of May – where it held for some 10 days or so – before then toughing to a low of 61% intraday on the 16th June. So the probability is now 6% off the highs and 18% up from the lows. Whether this high number has an inbuilt expectation of a late shift towards the status quo (as with Quebec and Scotland …read more

Source: Eerie Calm Across Markets One Day Before The Main Event: Asia, Europe, US Unchanged

    

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