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Archive for the ‘Uncategorized’ Category

Anxiety Builds As Money Managers Near Record Long Gold Position

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By Tyler Durden

“There’s still a lot of fear out there,” warns one investor as the combination of event risks (e.g. Brexit, Spain, US Election) and the contagious collapse of central bank credibility has asset managers around the world piling into bonds and bullion. With negative rates now de rigeur, global developed market bond yields are pushing record lows as demand for protection from fiat debacles in precious metals (and alternative currencies) has sent money managers long position near Aug 2011’s record highs.

As Fed credibility collapses (red line – inverted expectations of rate-hike-pace) so Gold (gold line) and global developed market bonds (green line) have soared tick for tick…

Having fallen to a net short position as The Fed tried (unsuccessfully) to convince the world it was on a path to normalization, money managers have piled into gold (futures and options) at near record pace…

The last time gold “net longs” were this high was August 2011… from when prices tumbled despite a near doubling of The Fed’s balance sheet…

“There’s more upside risk for gold than there is downside,” Josh Crumb, the chief strategy officer who helps oversee $1.7 billion at Toronto-based GoldMoney, said in an interview in New York. “For gold to fall, they would have to raise interest rates more than the market expects, and I think that’s a very unlikely scenario.”

…read more

Source: Anxiety Builds As Money Managers Near Record Long Gold Position

    

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Posted June 21st, 2016 in Uncategorized.

Why A UK Billionaire Believes Brexit Would Be "Good For The UK"

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By Tyler Durden

The City of London and the pound would both benefit from the U.K. leaving the EU, says billionaire Peter Hargreaves. Brexit may knock the pound initially, but it would rebound, the co-founder of Hargreaves Lansdown — the largest U.K. retail broker, with more than $84.1 billion equivalent in assets — told Bloomberg Briefs' Geoff King in a June 17 interview.

Q: Why do you support “Leave”?

A: Every year in the EU it gets more political, it gets more legislative, more regulative; we don’t seem to get very much benefit from it. We will be far better out. The EU as an economic mark is declining in the world, when there were only nine countries in it was 30 percent of the world's GDP, now there are 28 it is only 17 percent. That's some serious decline. Other countries that are growing — India, parts of Africa, Brazil, China and even Russia — are the places we should be trading with.

Q: How do you counter strong economist/analyst support to remain?

A: There's a huge amount of vested interest, a lot people making these comments are politically motivated and also work for big banks that aren’t British. They’ve built these enormous dealing rooms and offices in the City of London and Canary Wharf and their bosses are saying we don't want to endanger this huge investment of ours. I don't think it will endanger that huge investment. You can't move the City of London to anywhere else in Europe. It's madness to suggest it. Frankfurt, the place everybody keeps talking about, only has a population of 700,000, it could not accommodate anything like the City of London. The City of London is absolutely guaranteed, it is bound to survive. The only center that could take over would be Zurich and that's not in the EU either. It's absolute drivel that the City of London will be affected. The City of London will go out and it will deal with these emerging economies in the Pacific Basin, Southeast Asia, Africa — they're all going to want finance for different things. You can't set up the City of London anywhere else. It takes years, and during that time the City of London will have grown stronger. Any attempt at usurping it will fail.

Q: How will London's role change?

A: It will become more global. There are only two global financial cities: New York and London. The fact London is no longer shackled to the EU means it will go out and deal with the rest of the world. New York is not in a great place, it is only in a great place for dealing with America and South America. The London time-zone is perfect for almost everywhere else in the world.

Q: What will happen to the EU?

A: The EU will disintegrate when we leave. They will realise there is nothing left. The political union is going to be a disaster and they'll want a free-trade area. Do you know who'll be the first …read more

Source: Why A UK Billionaire Believes Brexit Would Be "Good For The UK"

    

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Posted June 21st, 2016 in Uncategorized.

The Chinese Real-Estate Bubble Has Gone Parabolic: Land Prices Soar 50% In One Year

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By Tyler Durden

The saying goes “when in a hole, stop digging.” In China, conventional wisdom appears to be flipped on its head as follows: “when facing a massive real estate bubble, keeping blowing.” That is the case at least according to the following chart showing the average price of land, the main ingredient of the property world, in the top 100 Chinese cities, which as of May has hit a record 3,100 Yuan per square meter.

As the WSJ calculates, the average land price per square meter for the top 100 Chinese cities in the first five months of this year jumped nearly 50% from same period last year, citing Wind Information. More stunning is that according to Wind, some land prices are even higher than asking prices for fully-built houses nearby.

You read that right: unbuilt land in many places in China now costs more than fully-finished apartments.

Some examples of how the government itself, through SOEs, is pushing the real-estate bubble on a parabolic path that will lead to an unmitigated bubble explosion.

  • State-owned developer Poly Real Estate bought a piece of land in a Shanghai suburb for 5.5 billion yuan ($835.5 million) last month. This translates to roughly 44,000 yuan per square meter of buildable space. This is more than what full-built houses in the region sell for, with the average price at around 40,000 yuan per square meter. After taking into account construction costs, taxes and other expenses, property prices would have to nearly double for the developer to make money.
  • A property subsidiary of China Gezhouba Group, a state-owned builder of power plants and dams, spent 3.3 billion yuan last month to buy the most expensive land, in terms of price per square meter, in Nanjing. Another state dam construction company, Power Construction Corp. of China, snapped up a piece of land in China’s bubbliest property market, the southern metropolis of Shenzhen, for 8.3 billion yuan.
  • Cinda Real Estate, a subsidiary of state-owned “bad bank” China Cinda Asset Management, has splurged on at least 35 billion yuan of land over the past year, even though the market value of the company, listed in Shanghai, is just 7.3 billion yuan.

Behind all the ludicrous transaction? The Government. And while we understand that the ultimate debt issuers are government-owned entities, the question of where the money comes – ignoring the ultimate guarantor – from is still applicable.

The answer: mountains of new debt.

The WSJ reports that to fund the purchases, Cinda’s net debt has swelled to more than three times its shareholders’ equity. It still managed to raise 3 billion yuan last month in a bond financing at 5.5%, mostly because of its state backing.

And since the company is backstopped by the government, it will be able to issue even more debt before it inevitably defaults on its obligations, leading to yet another zombie company which can not be liquidate due to Beijing being on the hook, yet which can no longer operate.

As the WSJ puts, it, “the domestic bond market …read more

Source: The Chinese Real-Estate Bubble Has Gone Parabolic: Land Prices Soar 50% In One Year

    

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Posted June 21st, 2016 in Uncategorized.

The New Iron Curtain – A Monument To Washington’s Imperial Folly

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By Tyler Durden

Submitted by Justin Raimondo via Anti-War.com,

A foreign army consisting of 31,000 soldiers from an anti-American alliance are conducting military “exercises” a few miles from San Diego. Hundreds of tanks converge on the Rio Grande, while jets from 24 countries converge in attack formation, darting through Mexican skies.

It isn’t hard to imagine Washington’s response.

Yet that’s precisely what has been happening on Russia’s border with the NATO alliance, as the cold war returns. Economic sanctions aimed at sinking Russia’s fragile economy, plus a propaganda campaign designed to characterize Russian President Vladimir Putin as the second coming of Stalin – or, in Hillary Clinton’s view, Hitler – have history running in reverse. Once again, an iron curtain is descending across Europe – only this time it’s the West’s doing.

The European Union renewed sanctions against Crimea on Friday: their “crime” – holding a referendum in which the overwhelming majority of voters opted for union with Russia, restoring what had been the status quo since the days of Catherine the Great. And the EU is slated to extend sanctions against the Russian Federation later this week.

Yet dissent against this revival of the cold war is rising in Europe, notably in Germany, where Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier is calling for the “gradual” lifting of sanctions to reflect progress in the implementation of the Minsk accords, which call for the demilitarization of Ukraine and elections in rebel-held territory. This reflects a division within Germany’s left-right coalition government: Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats are holding out for “full” implementation of the accords. Yet it is the government in Kiev – held hostage by far-right crazies – that has been dragging its feet over Minsk, refusing to grant autonomy to east Ukraine and vowing to continue the war against the rebels in spite of Kiev’s lack of success in pacifying the rebellious region.

Steinmeier went further in another interview, characterizing provocative military exercises conducted near Russia’s borders as “warmongering.” The “drill,” which ended Friday, simulated a Western response to an improbable Russian attack on Poland. “What we shouldn’t do now is inflame the situation further through saber-rattling and warmonger,” averred Steinmeier:

“Whoever believes that a symbolic tank parade on the alliance’s eastern border will bring security is mistaken. We are well-advised to not create pretexts to renew an old confrontation. [It would be] fatal to search only for military solutions and a policy of deterrence.”

The reality is that it is NATO that has to be deterred: ever since the collapse of the Warsaw Pact and the implosion of international communism the West has been advancing eastward, gathering its forces at the very gates of Moscow. They didn’t call the recent exercises “Spearhead” for nothing. Herr Steinmeier is correct that the “tank parade” within spitting distance of the Kremlin is “symbolic,” but neglects to tell us what it symbolizes, which is nothing less than World War III.

The Germans are rebelling against the EU/NATO war on Russia because, as in the …read more

Source: The New Iron Curtain – A Monument To Washington’s Imperial Folly

    

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Posted June 21st, 2016 in Uncategorized.

A Perfect Recipe For Mayhem

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By Tyler Durden

Submitted by Howard Kunstler via Kunstler.com,

At a most troubled moment in history, both major political parties appear set to nominate time-bomb candidates for president with a fair percentage chance of blowing up their own campaigns and the parties themselves.

We’ve been living in the era of anything goes and nothing matters — that is, the era of no consequences — but at some point between now and November 8 someone surely will press FBI chief James Comey as to why his agency issued neither a criminal referral nor an explanatory memorandum in the matter of Hillary Clinton’s private email server and its role in the money-gathering activities of the Clinton Foundation while she was Secretary of State.

Hapless Bernie Sanders blew his chance to call her on that months ago — “The American people are sick and tired of hearing about your damn emails!” — but it’s absolutely certain that Trump will jump up and down and shout woo-woo-woo about it during the general election campaign, if he manages to not get dumped at the GOP convention. Or his as-yet-hypothetical replacement will.

The email issue won’t go away because it entails serious issues of racketeering in public office, not just niceties of security procedure. One of the Secretary of State’s duties is to approve weapons sales to foreign countries. During her three years at State, Hillary signed off on $165 billion worth of sales by private commercial arms contractors to Clinton Foundation foreign donors. On top of that was an additional $151 billion of separate Pentagon-brokered deals for 16 of the countries that gave to the Clinton Foundation. It also happened that the weapons contractors themselves and companies connected financially to them made substantial donations to the Clinton foundation — and paid whopping speaking fees to Hillary’s husband ex-president Bill, during her years at State.

Salon Magazine has also reported that in contradiction of a 1995 directive signed by then-president Bill against arms sales to nations violating human rights, Hillary approved such weapons sales. Salon’s David Sirota writes:

As just one of many examples, in its 2011 Human Rights Report, Clinton’s State Department slammed Algeria’s government for imposing “restrictions on freedom of assembly and association,” tolerating “arbitrary killing,” “widespread corruption” and a “lack of judicial independence.

That year, the Algerian government donated $500,000 to the Clinton Foundation and the next year Clinton’s State Department approved a one-year 70 percent increase in military export authorizations to the country. The jump included authorizations for almost 50,000 items classified as “toxicological agents, including chemical agents, biological agents and associated equipment.” The State Department had not authorized the export of any of such items to Algeria the year before.

There’s no way that the shady doings of the Clinton Foundation will not become a campaign issue whether Trump emerges as the eventual GOP nominee or not, and of course the other noisome matter of exactly what Hillary told Too-Big-To-Fail banks in exchange for many quarter-million dollar “speaking fees” still lurks behind all that. Hillary’s partisans at the The New …read more

Source: A Perfect Recipe For Mayhem

    

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Posted June 21st, 2016 in Uncategorized.

Why An Ex-Credit Suisse Banker In Brazil Made More Money Than The CEO

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By Tyler Durden

Ever had to testify in a trial involving your father's dealings in corrupt activities, and as a result had your tax records leaked for all of the public to see? Sergio Machado, the ex-head of Credit Suisse's Brazil fixed-income business has, and now everyone knows how much he made in 2015.

Sergio's father, who goes by the same name, is a former Brazilian politician who went on to head the state run oil company Petrobras before being investigated for corrupt activities involving bid-rigging and bribery. During the case (which the elder Machado has since agreed to a plea bargain) Sergio was called on to testify about an HSBC account he opened in Switzerland that some of the illegal funds allegedly moved through. As part of the court proceedings, Sergio had submitted tax records for 2015, and those records were released to the public.

What the tax record shows has left many bankers thoroughly confused – in 2015, the younger Sergio Machado made $14 million with Credit Suisse as the head of Brazil's fixed income business. What makes it curious, is that this was during a year where, as Bloomberg reports, deal fees plummeted 42% to the lowest level in a decade, and as we discussed, in an economy that fell off a cliff in 2015. In addition to the Brazilian elements, Credit Suisse overall suffered its first annual loss since the financial crisis in 2015, with its global markets and investment banking operations performing horrendously.

Machado's $14 million in compensation for 2015 was much higher than the highest paid CS executive board member Rob Shafir, who earned $8.2 million. Additionally, CEO Tidjane Thiam earned $4.7 million for six months of work in 2015, which annualized doesn't even come close to Machado's haul. Bloomberg notes that the $14 million did include deferred bonuses from prior years, however those would be some significant bonuses to get the banker up to $14 million. Then again, under Machado's watch, CS lent $1.27 billion to Minas Gerais State in 2013, and then promptly turned around and sold it to investors a month later for a cool $116 million profit, so perhaps Machado got a large cut of that deal – we'll never know.

Credit Suisse declined to comment, saying it doesn't discuss employee earnings.

Machado left the firm in April amid global cutbacks after spending 17 years at the bank, and perhaps the removal of Machado's lofty paycheck will be spun by Thiam as evidence that the CEO is serious about turning the organization around in hopes that the stock will stop crashing. Then again, probably not.

Also, for those interested in the other piece to the story, which is how the younger Machado testified to the fact that illegal funds were moving through his bank account, Sergio said that he had been kept in the dark about any allegedly illegal activities:

“The whole time, I believed in the lawful purposes of the account.”

And just in case anyone gets any ideas of prosecution, don't, because the trail …read more

Source: Why An Ex-Credit Suisse Banker In Brazil Made More Money Than The CEO

    

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Posted June 21st, 2016 in Uncategorized.

China Threatens To Leave UN Sea Convention If Court Invalidates Maritime Claims

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By Tyler Durden

As an arbitration court in The Hague gets ready to make a decision regarding an ongoing territorial dispute between China and the Philippines, China has reportedly told some other Asian countries that it may leave the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea if it disagrees with the ruling.

The Philippines has been the most vocal critic of China's activities in the South China Sea, and filed a case with the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague in 2013 in an attempt to invalidate China's “nine-dash line”, China's version of what territory it owns.

Here is a map showing different maritime claims each country has, many overlap each other.

Zoomed version

China believes the worst outcome would be for the tribunal to rule that Beijing's claim over the sea has no international legal grounds, and invalidates its line.

From Kyodo News

China thinks the worst outcome would be for the tribunal, constituted by the 1982 convention, or UNCLOS, to rule that Beijing's claim of “historic rights” over the sea has no international legal grounds and invalidate its expansive line, according to the sources.

China has told some diplomats of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations that it does not rule out withdrawing from the convention, often referred to as the constitution of the oceans, if that happens, the sources said.

Many experts believe that the ruling will not be favorable for China, which also has territorial disputes in the South China Sea with three other members of the 10-member association, namely Vietnam, Malaysia and Brunei.

The significance of the claim is understood when realizing what is at stake. The territory encompasses a key international shipping route for trade, is rich in fisheries (key for China, as protein is expensive for its citizens right now), and is believed to have large oil and gas deposits. Due to these reasons, it is not a surprise that China claims it won't honor any unfavorable decision, nor does it like the fact that outside parties (read: United States) intervene in the dispute.

China's massive reclamation in recent years of islands in the South China Sea — a key international shipping route that is rich in fisheries resources and is also believed to hold large oil and gas deposits — and its building of military facilities on them have generated widespread concerns, not only among the claimants, which also include Taiwan.

China, which ratified UNCLOS in 1996, has said it will neither accept nor honor the upcoming ruling by the tribunal. It has criticized the Philippines for filing the case “unilaterally” and breaking their past agreement of trying to settle territorial disputes through bilateral negotiations.

China has also asserted that the court has no jurisdiction over the case.

However, the Philippines' action has been backed by numerous countries including the United States and Japan, which regard it as a step toward resolving disagreements and easing tensions peacefully through international law.

While China has urged non-claimants not to meddle in territorial disputes in the South China Sea, …read more

Source: China Threatens To Leave UN Sea Convention If Court Invalidates Maritime Claims

    

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Posted June 21st, 2016 in Uncategorized.

Progressive Pictionary

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By Tyler Durden

Presented with no comment…

Source: Townhall.com

…read more

Source: Progressive Pictionary

    

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Posted June 20th, 2016 in Uncategorized.

Jeep that killed ‘Star Trek’ actor due to be recalled

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The Jeep Grand Cherokee that killed “Star Trek” actor Anton Yelchin is due to be recalled for the very problem that cost him his life. …read more

Source: Jeep that killed ‘Star Trek’ actor due to be recalled

    

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Posted June 20th, 2016 in Uncategorized.

Brexit Vote Now At Risk, The Markets & Gold React

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By Sprott Money

Brexit Vote Now At Risk, The Markets & Gold React


Written by Nathan McDonald (CLICK FOR ORIGINAL)

The assassination of Jo Cox, one of the leading members involved in the anti-Brexit campaign, has sent markets spinning. One moment the markets are up, the next they are down. The same goes for precious metals.

The elite know the risk of Britain leaving the EU. They know that it risks setting some of their hard-earned minions free and that it will crush their long-term dreams of a one global currency and government. Ultimately, this would be a massive set back for them, and now we are seeing all the tricks coming out.

A few weeks ago, I speculated that the establishment risks losing the Brexit campaign unless they pulled off some dirty tricks to either change people’s opinions or to force the vote suspended. With the death of Jo Cox, this reality is incredibly real.

Does this mean that she was assassinated for some ill purpose, as many conspiracy theories are now speculating? I am not saying this, but many are. Sadly, we are unlikely to find out the truth, but regardless of the matter, it is an incredibly suspicious development and tragedy.

I don’t know, and nor will the broad public likely ever know. Either way, the almost-certain to win pro-Brexit campaigns are now in serious trouble and facing very strong headwinds.

This fact has sent markets higher as the likelihood of Britain remaining in the EU has once again gained traction and thus has dispelled much of the uncertainty that the markets loathe so much.

Gold has also reacted to this news and has broken through the key $1300 level, moving above and below as it tests resistance levels.

Gold’s renewal in strength has once again brought many of the precious metals experts out of the woodwork and new calls for highs are being made. Two of the most recent to make these calls are Doug Casey, who is calling for $3000 gold, and Martin Armstrong, who is much more cautious in the short term, but positive.

The next few weeks are going to prove pivotal in the direction our global economies go, especially in regards to gold and silver.

Will the Brexit vote go forward? Will they be able to maintain their hold and regain their freedom and liberty, or will they be defeated now that public support has taken a major blow following the horrible assassination of Jo Cox? Time will reveal all very soon.

Please email with any questions about this article or precious metals HERE

Brexit Vote Now At Risk, The Markets & Gold React


Written by Nathan McDonald (CLICK FOR ORIGINAL)


…read more

Source: Brexit Vote Now At Risk, The Markets & Gold React

    

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Posted June 20th, 2016 in Uncategorized.

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