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By Tyler Durden

“It hasn't learned…”

Why everything rallied… because bookies odds surged (despite a lack of movement in the polls)…

US equity markets ripped higher overnight and extended gains at the cash open, ending near the lows of the cash session (which Bob Pisani called “just off the highs”)…

The S&P 500 surge was as technical as it gets – tagging 2,100 perfectly before fading…having punched VIX down to 16.5 (S&P Cash high of the day 2100.66!)

Dow's 500 point “dead cox bounce” gave back 150 this afternoon…

Nasdaq and S&P underformed on the day…

S&P, Dow, and Small Caps were ramped up to unchanged from the close beforer last week…

Bonds & Bullion remain the leaders post-payrolls…

Netflix ripped and dipped after changing its logo…

Of course – all anyone cared about was Cable, which soared the most since Lehman

Ending above 1.4700 despite a perlious flash-crash on “Remain” campaign headlines…

USDJPY closed at new lows since Aug 2014…

Notably, as soon as Europe closed, US equities began to fade, decoupling from Cable as USDJPY started to tumble…

Treasury yields rose 3 to 6bps on the day (long-end underperforming short-end), extending the selling post Jo Cox death…

Note 2s30s flattened during the US day session…

Copper and crude rallied (risk on) as Gold opened down and flatlined; silver levitated from the US Open…

* * *

So in conclusion, Global markets surged today, because bookmakers odds suggesting UK would “remain” increased with betting tilted last night by a singular bet of 25,000 pounds…

Do you know how fucking insame that is!! One bet of 25,000 ponds skewed bookie odds on remain and poof markets around the world rally.

— Lizzy (@lizzie363) June 20, 2016

Charts: Bloomberg

…read more

Source: Sterling Soars Most Since Lehman Before Stocks Brexit-Relief-Rally Fades Ahead Of Key Polls

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By EconMatters

By EconMatters

We outline what went wrong with the Republican Party for the last 20 plus years in this video. Hopefully this is a wake up call for the Republican Party, to scale down their future Political Platform to some sound basic economic principles that benefit a large number of constituencies, are attractive to a broader voter pool, and voters can really get behind without being offended and alienated in the process with essentially a bunch of unnecessary ancillary issues which should be outside the scope of a smaller government involvement anyway.

• Job Creation: Getting Americans Back to Work
• Small Business and Entrepreneurship
• Tax Relief to Grow the Economy and Create Jobs
• American Competitiveness in a Global Economy
• Fundamental Tax Principles
• Reining in Out-of-Control Spending, Balancing the Budget, and Ensuring Sound Monetary Policy
• Balancing the Budget
• Inflation and the Federal Reserve
• Ending the Housing Crisis and Expanding Opportunities for Homeownership
• Rebuilding Homeownership
• Infrastructure: Building the Future
• More American Jobs, Higher Wages, and A Better Standard of Living
• A Twenty-First Century Workforce
• Freedom in the Workplace

© EconMatters All Rights Reserved | Facebook | Twitter | YouTube | Email Digest | Kindle

…read more

Source: Hillary Clinton is the Next President of the United States (Video)

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By Tyler Durden

While all eyes are afixed to this week’s Brexit vote – and the surge in bookies’ odds (relative to poll data) – Bloomberg’s Richard Breslow reminds traders that “no event remains ‘most important’ forever.”

Britain’s EU referendum is obviously the biggest news of the week. But the rest of the world hasn’t stopped turning. It just seems that way for the moment watching markets chase behind the U.K. newsflow.

It’s a mistake, however, to project the rest of the year or even the next quarter, based on one event. There’s even a chance, a real one, that the referendum will look like yesterday’s news before the end of the month.

How many times over the years have you heard, “this is the most important election, number, referendum or geo-political event of our time?” Now name them.

The EU is properly feeling relieved this morning that momentum going into the final days of the campaign is shifting their way. The Italian regional elections that took place yesterday should remind them that Euroscepticism is a symptom of a wider discontent that goes way beyond the borders of one country.

Growth surprises in China or the U.S. remain huge unknowns. The utter uncertainty surrounding economic trajectory of the world’s two biggest economies is nothing short of extraordinary and worrying.

Look at January versus February versus April markets to remind yourself this isn’t a one-issue world: even if a correlated one.

I’d even suggest that Chair Yellen is likely to begin the march back from the latest dove lurch at anytime. Especially if the U.K. bookies are right, the next payrolls report is okay and the S&P 500 flirts with new highs. Then what “current regime” will Mr. Bullard describe?

If there’s one lesson we never learn, it’s that no one is any good at forecasting oil prices. Before penciling in the next 15% move in equities, it’s well worth contemplating commodities.

Reserve Bank of India Governor Rajan’s news over the weekend puts into question just what’s likely to be the economic and political outlook for the world’s fastest growing big economy.

Great Britain may be an island, but the global economy isn’t. You can’t assume away the rest of the world…

…read more

Source: Forget Brexit: "You Can’t Assume Away The Rest Of The World"

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By Tyler Durden

Despite the surge in risk assets and bookies' odds, opinion polls show the Leave and Remain campaigns still neck and neck ahead of Thursday’s U.K. referendum on EU membership. Here are some key events that could drive market sentiment in the days and weeks ahead.

“Leave” odds have plunged in recent days (post Jo Cox' death)

But, as Bloomberg details below, there is a lot to come…

JUNE – AHEAD OF VOTE

• 20: Result of Italy regional elections; Five Star Movement candidates won in Rome and Turin mayoral elections NOTE: Peripheral spreads widened last week ahead of the U.K. vote amid concern about what Brexit would mean for the future of the EU; domestic political risks add to Carmignac’s caution on bonds in the periphery markets

• 20: Leader of the U.K. opposition Jeremy Corbyn to answer questions on Sky
• 21: Germany’s Constitutional court to release ruling on ECB’s OMT program at 10 a.m.
• 21: BBC hosts TV debate on referendum; C. Suisse says it may be key market event, citing events before the Scottish referendum in 2014
• 21: EU Referendum Survey published by NatCen Social Research; Jefferies analysts say could be most important survey as combines online and phone polls but won’t be based on responses of volunteers
• 21: Second additional BOE ITLR operation around referendum; banks allocated GBP2.46b at the first operation vs avg allocation of GBP2.95b in prior six
• 22: Channel 4 TV debate

JUNE 23-24 – VOTING AND COUNT

June 23 7 a.m.: Polls open

• Opinion polls based on voter intentions may be released during the day

10 p.m.: Polls close; there won’t be an exit poll

• 382 counting areas are due to report

June 24 12.30 a.m.: One of the earliest constituencies to declare will be Sunderland; a close result there would suggest the remain camp has won, says University of East Anglia academic Chris Hanretty

• The remain vote is likely to look “high” relative to the eventual outcome in the early hours, JPMorgan analysts say based on modeling by the University of Bristol’s Ron Johnston

4 a.m.-5 a.m.: Around 80% of authorities are expected to have made a declaration; the Brexit count is much less likely to deviate materially from the ultimate result at this stage, they say

Around 7 a.m.: the final three results are due; once the final area has declared, Chief Counting Officer Jenny Watson will formally announce the national result in Manchester

JUNE – AFTER THE REFERENDUM

The tone of the debate over EU membership within the U.K.’s ruling party suggests the fates of PM David Cameron and Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne are now tied to the outcome.

Domestic politics could also impact the tone of negotiations with the EU and market sentiment, analyst at UBS said at a conference in London last week

• 24: If the U.K. votes to leave, central banks and analysts expect market volatility; ECB Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny says the ECB is ready to provide liquidity, while the SNB and BOJ have said central banks are in regular contact
• Commerzbank expects concerted FX intervention on any Brexit
• 24: The results of the ECB’s first TLTR0-II operation …read more

  Source: UK Referendum Timeline: What’s Next & What Happens After The Brexit Vote

      

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By Tyler Durden

Submitted by Raul Ilargi Meijer via The Automatic Earth blog,

The reason the Brexit debate has gotten so out of hand is nobody understands what it’s about.

The Brexit campaigns have started anew in the UK, and from what I’ve seen here from left field barely a thing has changed since the murder of MP Jo Cox. Neither side has any qualms about using her death to make their respective points. The main, and perhaps only real, point is that nobody understands what the vote is about. Jo Cox, bless her soul, didn’t either.

This lack of understanding is also, at the same time, the reason why the debate has gotten so out of hand. Nobody seems to understand it’s not about Cameron or Nigel Farage, or Michael Gove vs Boris Johnson, it’s about voting for or against the EU, for or against Juncker and Tusk and five other unelected presidents having a say in one’s life.

And that’s not all either. It’s about voting to leave, or remain in, a Union that is already dead and preserved only in a zombie state. Brexit is just one vote and many more will inevitably follow. Brexit is not the first, Grexit had that ‘honor’ last year. Later this month, elections in Italy and Spain have the potential to turn into preliminary Italix and Spexit votes. And then there will be more.

The reason why these things are taking place, and will be, going forward, is that the economies of all these countries are fast deteriorating. The sole reason why people have accepted the rule of Brussels coming from far away over their daily lives, is the promise that it would make those lives better and more comfortable.

That promise has been shattered. The EU has made things worse for most Europeans, not improved them. And when seen in that light, why should people agree to continue to be told what to do by those who’ve made them poorer? There’s no democratic model in which that remotely makes sense. There are only undemocratic models left.

Britain’s Brexit referendum has run head first into global developments, and there is no sign that any voice in the discussion recognizes this. They all think it’s about something else. And of course Cameron’s policies have devastated the country, and of course the even more right wing Leave campaigners would make that worse. But that’s not what this is about.

What Cameron missed when he called the referendum is not that some of his friends could turn on him and go Leave, what he missed is that so many Brits from both the left and the right would turn on him. He never expected that to happen. He always figured his manipulated rosy pink economic numbers would outweigh people’s actual daily lives.

This is a global phenomenon, it has little to do with Cameron himself, other than his neoliberal budget cuts are often even more extreme than those of many of his pan-European and indeed American and global peers. It has a lot more …read more

Source: The Brexit Debate Is So Out Of Hand Because Nobody Understands What It’s Really About

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By Tyler Durden

One look at cable this morning, which moments ago hit 1.47, continuing its unprecedented move higher, which already was the biggest intraday move sine 2008, and traders would be allowed to conclude that the Brexit vote had come and gone, with Remain winning by a wide margin.

After all, with less than a 100 pips remaining to Citi’s “extreme print” forecast in case of a Remain victory, the move today has practically priced in the entire outcome of the “remain” vote.

So what is Citi’s take? Well, in a word, CitiFX’s Brent Donnelly is speechless. Here’s why:

“It is stunning how quickly we have spun to the assumption that Remain is a done deal. I understand why, of course. But still. Stunning. So markets have moved considerably since Friday and there is interesting variation among the reactions. I created a chart of vol-adjusted performance of assets and you can see it in Chart 1. For ease of comparison, I flipped anything where risk on = down. For example, USDCAD or bunds, I show the reaction as a positive number not a negative number so that it is all apples to apples.”

Chart 1: Vol-adjusted performance of assets since Friday’s close

Citi’s takeaways:

• USDJPY = U-G-L-Y. It ain’t got no alibi, it’s ugly. A lot of people would have thought EURJPY or USDJPY would be the best trade on Remain (besides GBP, obviously). But USDJPY continues to trade heavier than a heavy thing. It is tempting to go short USDJPY here and stop above 105.55.
• Gold trades very well. I would have expected a much larger selloff.
• European rates have moved more than US rates, as one might expect.
• EURSEK has moved more than I would have thought. Could this be a sign of a major turn there?
• Crude and copper barely get a lift.

And the conclusion: “There is still potential for one more Brexit scare but time is running out and this referendum fear is looking set to fizzle a la Y2K.”

Unless, of course, the next poll to come out shows a lead for Leave in which case take all of the above and flip it.

…read more

Source: As Sterling Soars Above 1.47, Citi Admits That It Is "Stunned" – Here’s Why

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By Tyler Durden

Update: Well that did not take long… Just as he warned – “If they’re fighting, I get rid of one or the other or do something,” Donald Trump is parting ways with his campaign manager, Corey Lewandowski, a move that comes as the presumptive Republican nominee faces challenges as it moves toward the general election.

“The Donald J. Trump Campaign for President, which has set a historic record in the Republican primary having received almost 14 million votes, has today announced that Corey Lewandowski will no longer be working with the campaign,” the campaign spokeswoman, Hope Hicks, said in a statement.

“The campaign is grateful to Corey for his hard work and dedication and we wish him the best in the future.”

* * *

As we detailed earlier, having pulled back to 'even' with Hillary Clinton a month ago, Donald Trump's recent media-reported faux pas have seen his popularity fade notably in recent polls. While the establishment's quiet continuing push to ouster Trump's nomination, Bloomberg reports the Republican presidential candidate is gathering his top lieutenants including members of his family, in New York on Monday to discuss a political strategy shift as he looks to move beyond recent missteps.

Trump is facing pressure from within his own inner circle — including from donors — who are growing increasingly frustrated with what they see as a lack of coordination and communication, members of Trump's staff told Bloomberg Politics, at a crucial moment in the presidential race.

There's also a growing impatience among some on Trump's payroll that the candidate has failed to fill key roles within his campaign, including traveling press secretary and communications director, while Democrat Hillary Clinton's synchronized political machine capitalized on a string of negative Trump headlines.

The frustration among Trump's allies increased after his speech last week in Manchester, N.H., where he responded to the mass shooting at an Orlando nightclub. Many in Trump's inner-circle had predicted that he would get a bump in the polls, as he did following the terror attacks in Paris and San Bernardino, Calif. Instead, he faced a well-orchestrated rapid response machine from the Clinton campaign and the Democratic Party, which hammered him for days.

Polls vary from Gravis +2pts to Bloomberg +12pts leads for Clinton in the last week but overall RealClearPolitics' average suggests some abatement in Trump's slide…

But members of Trump's team also told Bloomberg Politics there still appears to be a schism between campaign chairman Paul Manafort and campaign manager Corey Lewandowski.

The campaign has built two distinct communications operations: one at its New York headquarters, and another in Cleveland for the convention. There have been instances of friction between each team.

During a swing through California last month, for instance, the campaign never publicized Trump's meeting with female executives in the state, or the endorsements from lengthy list of veterans. At the time Trump was facing questions about his failure to donate to vets groups.

While Manafort's allies blame the lapse on a power struggle, Lewandowski's backers …read more

Source: "You’re Fired" – Trump Parts Way With Campaign Manager As Clinton Lead Builds

    

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By Tyler Durden

Via ConvergEx's Nick Colas,

Google “The Fed” and the search engine will offer to autofill your query with “surrenders”. That’s the result of a WSJ article from today with that title, but it also reflects market concerns that the U.S. Federal Reserve has abandoned its recently more upbeat take on the domestic economy. Well, we’ll get a chance to hear more tomorrow when Chair Yellen makes her semiannual monetary policy report to Congress. There’s not likely to be much in the way of new economic information on offer versus her Wednesday press conference, so the success/failure of this appearance will hinge on the tone she chooses to strike and the conviction investors hear in her testimony and in Q&A.

With so much chatter about the Fed “Losing credibility” with markets, this will be an important chance for Chair Yellen to set the record straight.

“There are no second acts in American lives.” That often cited quote reputedly came from the pen of F. Scott Fitzgerald. You hear it most often as the antecedent to something like “Except for” a public figure, fallen from grace, who magically reappears after a personal intermission to regain fame and glory. In fact, you would be forgiven for thinking that too many celebrities on the American stage have not just second and third acts, but tenth and twentieth ones as well.

The actual quote, from a Fitzgerald essay collection titled “My Lost City”, is “I once thought that there were no second acts in American lives, but there was certainly to be a second act to New York’s boom days.” That’s an entirely different sentiment from the soundbite quote, to be sure. There are clearly second acts, and Fitzgerald’s reference to New York City is especially apt since he was referring to the post-Jazz Age world of the 1930s. Since then, of course, the city has had more acts than a Shakespeare play.

In that spirit we turn to the Federal Reserve and its current Chair Janet Yellen – a policymaker certainly in need of a second act. The curtain came down on Act One yesterday, with her press conference post-FOMC meeting. By dint of both their reluctance to increase the Fed Funds rate and the reduction in longer term interest rate guidance, the U.S. central bank essentially ended all market expectations of a cycle of future rate increases. That inaction gave further credence to the market’s worry that the U.S. economy is stalling, and at a fairly high altitude. The ride down may not be pleasant.

True to Fitzgerald’s actual sentiment, Chair Yellen will get her chance for a second act come tomorrow at 10am she will be sitting in front of the Senate Banking Committee to give her widely followed semiannual monetary report. No, she will not have much new information to report compared to yesterday’s press conference. But she will have another chance to express her confidence in the U.S. economy and (perhaps) reinject the notion that …read more

Source: Fed Congressional Testimony Preview: Janet Yellen’s Shot At Redemption

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The government has thrown open the door to more foreign direct investment, a move that should make it easier for brands such as Apple. …read more

Source: India opens its doors to Apple stores

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By Tyler Durden

Until now, Italy’s 5-Star Movement has been viewed a protest and opposition party, however a second round of mayoral elections on Sunday changed that.

As we reported earlier this month, the anti-establishment 5-Star Movement candidates in the key cities of Rome and Turin had advanced to the second round of voting in each mayoral race. In Rome, the largest stage for voters to show displeasure with politics as usual under Prime Minister Matteo Renzi, residents were seeking new leadership to put an end to the recent turmoil which included corruption allegations, poor management, and political upheaval. On Sunday, voters in Italy’s capital decided quite definitively that it was time to move in a new direction.

5-Star Movement candidate Virginia Raggi, a 37-year old lawyer, was elected Rome’s first female mayor by winning a stunning 67% of the vote in the second round. Raggi trounced Roberto Giachetti (Prime Minister Renzi’s Democratic Party candidate) who took down just 33% of the vote the WSJ reports. The election of an anti-establishment 5-Star Movement candidate is a statement in itself, however by taking 67% of the vote over Renzi’s candidate, a resounding message has been sent that the voters want change.

“We will restore legality and transparency to the city’s institutions after 20 years of poor governance. With us a new era is beginning.” Raggi said.

Another political blow came for Renzi in Turin, where yet another 5-Star Movement candidate was elected mayor. Chiara Appendino won 55% of the vote as the 5-Star Movement candidate, defeating Piero Fassino, the Democratic Party incumbent who took 45% of the vote.

As we discussed after the first round results, Prime Minister Renzi is facing significant challenges within the country, least of which are weak economic growth and a banking sector on the verge of yet another major crisis. The key political losses in Rome and Turin will only bolster the 5-Star Movement, as it now has the opportunity to govern and prove what it can do for the people, while Renzi faces quite a challenge to put forward any type of reform agenda.

“The runoff results in Rome and Turin were a neat and unmitigated defeat,” the Democratic Party said on Sunday night, calling a national party meeting for Friday to analyze the “national indications” of the elections.

There remains a constitutional referendum that will take place in October, and the result of that referendum is something that Renzi has staked his political future on. The referendum itself is to sharply reduce the powers of the Senate, and cut the number of senators by two-thirds, but more importantly, Renzi considers the constitutional overhaul as his flagship program, and as the WSJ notes, if voters reject the referendum Renzi said that he would resign.

* * *

These key election results signal that like in many other nations, the Italian people have had enough with the “establishment”, with politics as usual, and are prepared to move in a different direction. If the 5-Star Movement continues to gain further support, Renzi may want …read more

Source: Italy’s Anti-Establishment 5-Star Movement Delivers Dramatic Victories In Key Mayoral Races

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