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Archive for the ‘Uncategorized’ Category

GAO Report Reveals The FBI Has Built A Massive Facial Recognition Database

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By Tyler Durden

In what should come as a surprise to absolutely nobody (as we previewed it here years ago), a new report by the Government Accountability Office (GAO) reveals that the FBI has compiled a massive facial recognition database without any oversight.

The FBI has accessed driver's license photo databases from 16 states, as well as passport and visa photo databases from the State Department which were used to compile a facial recognition database of millions of Americans and foreigners who have never been accused of a crime TechCrunch reports.

The FBI has access to a stunning 411.9 million images for use in its facial recognition program, and while that should be enough to disturb everyone, the fact that the FBI ignored the Privacy Act which requires government agencies to disclose how they harvest and use personal information such as ID photos should ratchet that anxiety up a bit more. Oh, and one more thing, it's working with 16 more states to provide even further database access as well.

According to the report, the DOJ has an oversight structure in place to help ensure privacy protections, but didn't approve the program until well over three years since the pilot began.

A

Speaking of privacy protections, the report found that the FBI has never done a true audit of the system to test its accuracy, so it doesn't even know if it's reliable or not.

There appears to be no internal oversight on this system and that's remarkable. Today we found out that they have no idea if they're misusing it or not, they've [FBI] literally never done an audit.” said Alvaro Bedoya, executive director of the Center on Privacy and Technology at Georgetown Law. “They might not be storing these photos at Quantico but it has built, in effect, a nationwide biometric database using driver's license photos. It's breathtaking” Bedoya added.

I have always maintained that Americans have a fundamental right to privacy, and I believe that in order to protect this right, our citizens must have a basic understanding the tools law enforcement uses to keep them safe. This GAO report raises some very serious concerns, and reveals that the FBI's use of facial recognition technology is far greater than had previously been understood. This is especially concerning because the report shows that the FBI hasn't done enough to audit its own use of facial recognition technology or that of other law enforcement agencies that partner with the FBI, nor has it taken adequate steps to ensure the technology's accuracy.” Senator Al Franken said in a statement on the report.

One final point that should keep everyone up at night (but won't) is the fact that the FBI has proposed that the database be exempt from the provisions in the Privacy Act completely. Said otherwise, the FBI wants to (continue to) collect data on people and never have to disclose how it's collected, and what it's used for. Then again by doing whatever it wants anyway, we're already at that point.

Land …read more

Source: GAO Report Reveals The FBI Has Built A Massive Facial Recognition Database

    

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The Stock Market Crash Of 2016: Stocks Have Already Crashed In 6 Of The World’s 8 Largest Economies

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By Michael Snyder

Network Earth Continents - Public Domain

Over the past 12 months, stock market investors around the planet have lost trillions of dollars.  Since this time last June, stocks have crashed in 6 of the world’s 8 largest economies, and stocks in the other two are down as well.  The charts that you are about to see are absolutely stunning, and they are clear evidence that a new global financial crisis has already begun.  Of course it is true that we are still in the early chapters of this new crisis and that there is much, much more damage to be done, but let us not minimize the carnage that we have already witnessed.

In general, there have been three major waves of financial panic over the past 12 months.  Late last August we saw the biggest financial shaking since the financial crisis of 2008, then in January and February there was an even bigger shaking, and now a third “wave” has begun in June.  Not all areas around the globe have been affected equally by each wave, but without a doubt this new financial crisis is a global phenomenon.

The charts that I am about to show you come from Trading Economics.  It is an absolutely indispensable website that is packed full of useful data, and I encourage everyone to check it out.

Let’s talk about China first.  The Chinese economy is the second largest on the entire planet, and since this time last year Chinese stocks are down an astounding 40 percent

As things have started to unravel in China, the Chinese have been selling off U.S. debt and U.S. stocks like crazy.  The following comes from Bloomberg

For the past year, Chinese selling of Treasuries has vexed investors and served as a gauge of the health of the world’s second-largest economy.

The People’s Bank of China, owner of the world’s biggest foreign-exchange reserves, burnt through 20 percent of its war chest since 2014, dumping about $250 billion of U.S. government debt and using the funds to support the yuan and stem capital outflows.

While China’s sales of Treasuries have slowed, its holdings of U.S. equities are now showing steep declines.

Unfortunately for China, their economy just continues to slow down, and George Soros is so alarmed by this and a potential “Brexit” that he has been selling off stocks and buying enormous amounts of gold in anticipation of an even bigger global downturn.

Japan has the third largest economy in the world, and over the past year Japanese stocks are down a total of 26 percent from the peak…

Japan Stocks

Personally, I have been extremely alarmed by what has been happening in Japan lately.  Japanese stocks were down almost 500 points last night, and overall the Nikkei is down a whopping 1,800 points so far in June.

Of course the Japanese economy as a whole is essentially a basket case at this point.  For a detailed analysis of this, please see my previous article entitled “Watch Japan – For All …read more

Source: The Stock Market Crash Of 2016: Stocks Have Already Crashed In 6 Of The World’s 8 Largest Economies

    

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"Loan Stacking" – The Blind Spot That Could Blow Up The P2P Model

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By Tyler Durden

Back in February we noted that there were cracks starting to show in the world of P2P lending, and more specifically, with LendingClub's inability to assess credit risk of its borrowers that were causing the company to experience higher write-off rates than forecast.

From that February post, here is a chart that was used in a LendingClub presentation showing just how far off the company was in predicting write-off rates – it was evident then that their algorithms weren't working very well.

Here is what we said at the time:

What the slide above shows is that LendingClub is terrible at assessing credit risk. A write-off rate of 7-8% may not sound that bad (well, actually it does, but because P2P is relatively new, we don't really have a benchmark), it's double the low-end internal estimate.

That's bad. In other words, we said, the algorithms LendingClub uses to assess credit risk aren't working. Plain and simple.

And now courtesy of Reuters, we learn of a critical blind spot in the world of online lending. The risk to these online P2P companies such as LendingClub, is that as shown above, robust enough credit checks have not been developed to gauge true credit risk of borrowers. If said borrowers had what are referred to as “stacked” loans, meaning they have taken out one loan in order to pay for a prior loan, sometimes the algorithm won't be able to pick up all of those obligations in a timely enough fashion, and the borrowers credit risk is significantly understated.

As Reuters explains:

Many online lenders have failed to detect the “stacking” of multiple loans by borrowers who slip through their automated underwriting systems, lending company executives and investors told Reuters.

The practice is proliferating in the sector – led by LendingClub, OnDeck and Prosper Marketplace because of many lenders’ hurried, algorithmic underwriting, use of “soft” credit inquiries, and patchy reporting of the resulting loans to credit bureaus, according to online lending and consumer credit experts.

Such loopholes, they said, can result in multiple lenders making loans to the same borrowers, often within a short period, without the full picture of their rising obligations and deteriorating ability to pay.

Stacking is “causing problems with the whole industry,” said Brian Biglin, chief risk officer of LoanDepot, a five-year-old mortgage lender that last year started making personal loans online.

However, even if lenders are aware of the issue, and run further credit checks, the reporting can still be sketchy enough where the risk still is not picked up properly.

In their haste to give applicants quick loan decisions – sometimes within 24 hours – some marketplace lenders do not conduct thorough credit checks, known as “hard inquiries,” according to industry executives.

Such checks create an updated log of credit and loan applications, and they can lower a borrower's credit score. Soft inquiries don’t require the borrower’s consent and don't usually show up on credit reports.

OnDeck said it runs only soft checks. LendingClub and Prosper said they initially …read more

Source: "Loan Stacking" – The Blind Spot That Could Blow Up The P2P Model

    

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Philadelphia Becomes First Major City To Pass A Soda Tax

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By Tyler Durden

While not quite as draconian as the soda ban which former NYC billionaire mayor Michael Bloomberg tried (and failed) to pass in New York in 2014, moments ago the the Philadelphia City Council approved a 1.5-cent-per-ounce tax on sugar-sweetened and diet beverages, the first such tax imposed in a major U.S. city. The reason? The Council is looking to raise about $91 million for an expansion of early childhood education. Instead, the money will most likely be siphoned off into various underground ventures (and bank accounts) or outright embezzled.

.@CouncilwomanBRB‘s healthy beverage tax credit has also passed. 17-0 #PHLbudget #PHLCouncil

— PHLCouncil (@PHLCouncil) June 16, 2016

As a reminder, three years ago Michael Bloomberg pushed to ban oversize sodas in New York, a campaign which was ultimately rejected by the New York Court of appeals. The Philadelphia approach was less terminal, and ultimately promised revenues to the city, which is why it passed in a 13-4 vote this afternoon. The vote put to bed months of speculation and at-times tense negotiations, but also ensured the national spotlight will stay turned to Philadelphia for months, if not years, to come.

Philadelphia officials have been pushing for such measures for years,
pointing out that sugary drinks help fuel the epidemics of obesity,
diabetes and heart disease that affect more Americans every year. Yet oddly enough, any pretense that his tax is aimed the curbing the “dangers of sugar” or obesity dangers linked to soft drink evaporated when diet drinks were added to the mix.

The liberal bastion of Berkeley is the only other city that has such a tax, however Philly is the first major city to adopt a drink tax.

Critics – mostly the big soda companies – quickly vowed to fight it in court. And as Mayor Kenney rolls out the unprecedented levy -and its economic and public health impacts come into view – experts, advocates and legislators will surely be watching closely.

“Thanks to the tireless advocacy of educators, parents, rec center volunteers and so many others, Philadelphia made a historic investment in our neighborhoods and in our education system today,” Kenney said in a statement after the vote. “Today would not have been possible without everyone coming together in support of a fair future for every zipcode.”

Kennedy added that “all the times it was tried before for health reasons, we failed,” he said. “It failed in New York because of the health argument.” People resent the “nanny-state attitude,” he added.

Perhaps the people are right.

“We want to expand pre-K to 10,000 slots in the next four years, we want to create 25 community schools within our neighborhoods to that people can go to the schools and get the services they need for their kids, both medical , social, psychological and other types of job training and educational opportunities for adults,” Kenney told NBC News.

Not so fast: the tax will hit thousands of products, essentially anything bottled, canned or from a fountain with either …read more

Source: Philadelphia Becomes First Major City To Pass A Soda Tax

    

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Fed Finds "The End Of The Road"

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By Tyler Durden

LMCI-FedFunds-061616

Submitted by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

Fed Finds “The End Of The Road”

The FOMC press conference yesterday made one thing abundantly clear; the Fed has lost control of the narrative and their credibility.

The problem stems from the Fed’s ongoing adherence to “data dependency.” Last December, when the Fed Funds rate was increased, the Fed discussed the potential for further rate hikes in 2016 as inflation and employment data strengthened.

However, in March, with employment and inflationary data improving combined with a strong rebound in the financial markets, the Fed opted to ignore their data and focus on “global risks” to hold rates steady.

The problem for Ms. Yellen is while she was waiting to find the “perfect balance” of domestic growth and global stability, global economic weakness has now begun to destabilize domestic growth and employment. As the Fed’s own Labor Market Conditions Index shows, the rise in interest rates in December marked the peak in employment growth. Not unlike initial rate hikes have done every time previously.

Despite the perennial hopes of stronger economic growth, a resumption of employment trends and stronger inflation, the FOMC’s own projections clearly showed why they did not increase rates.

Besides being absolutely the worst economic forecasters on the planet, the Fed’s real problem is contained within the table and chart above. Despite the rhetoric of stronger employment and economic growth – plunging imports and exports, falling corporate profits, collapsing manufacturing and falling wages all suggest the economy is in no shape to withstand tighter monetary policy at this juncture.

Of course, if the Fed openly suggested a “recession” could well be in the cards, the markets would sell off sharply, consumer confidence would drop and a recession would be pulled forward to the present. This is why “what the Fed says” is much less important than what they do.

The big risk for the Fed has always been the market would “call their bluff” be unwilling to buy into the “forward guidance.” It is currently too soon to know for certain but reactions following yesterday’s announcement are not promising.

SP500-MarketUpdate-061616-2

With the ECB and the Fed policy meetings behind us, for the moment, all eyes will turn back to economics and earnings.Unfortunately, neither one of those is particularly supportive at this juncture.

LMCI Pointing To Rise In Claims

One of the more regularly pointed to indicators the economy is “nowhere near a recession” is jobless claims which have been in a steady downtrend over the last few years.

Today’s release of the jobless claims saw an increase in claims to 277,000 in the most recent report up from 264,000 last month. Historically, when claims are below 300,000, the labor market should be running at or near capacity. The problem, this time, is while claims have fallen due to cost cutting, unemployment and underemployment remain problematic along with the suppression of wage growth.

This issue of “labor hoarding” explains the sharp drop in initial weekly …read more

Source: Fed Finds "The End Of The Road"

    

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From Entropy To Ecstasy – A Market In Chaos

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By Tyler Durden

So to recap – Fed dismal and no change – warns of Brexit, BoJ disappoints with no change – warns of Brexit, BoE does nothing – warns of Brexit, Brexit polls show “Leave” leading… but an England win in Euro2016 and the death of a British MP was enough to turn the entire day around…

The sad truth about today's massive roller-coaster roundtrip is that it was driven by the death of a British MP which sparked speculation about delays to the Brexit vote…

Bonds were once again panic-bid with Swiss 30Y yields going negative for the first time in history…

As rate-hike odds continue to tumble (with Dec just 20% now)…

Across asset-classes, Bonds remain in the green as gold caught down to stocks…

The Dow soared 290 points off the lows…

Only The Dow was (barely) able to get back to the pre-Fed levels…

Stocks decoupled from USDJPY and from Crude today as the correlation machines hooked up with Cable…

VIX almost touched 23 intraday before being dumped…It is OPEX tomorrow so something had to snap…all that gamma had to be sucked up somehow

Financials continue to catch down to the yield curve's reality…

The US Dollar Index ended the day unchanged after pumping and dumping around the Brexit news… (note Yen surged almost 2%)

Treasury yields ended the day unchanged – somehow – after plunging andf then ripping back. 30Y outperformed by the close, down 2bps… and 2Y +2bps (2s30s tumbled to 168bps – the lowest since Jan 08)

Despite the USD ending lower, commodities all ended the day in the red as the post-MP-Death reaction sent everything lower…

Perhaps most interesting is the plunge in the USD and Gold at the same time as Bitcoin surged over 760…(notice the surge in gold and bitcoin started when BoJ disappointed)

Most notably, crude fell through crucial technical levels at its 50- ($46.50) and 200-day ($46.10) moving average…

And Silver And Gold were completely attacked after Europe closed…

Chartts: Bloomberg

Bonus Chart: It appears the S&P is starting to catch back down to The Fed balance sheet-implied FV around 1950…

Meet the hacker fighting ISIS with porn

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Hacker WauchulaGhost breached 250 ISIS accounts and loaded them with gay porn and support for Orlando victims. …read more

Source: Meet the hacker fighting ISIS with porn

    

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The Fed Just Lost ALL Credibility

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By Phoenix Capital Research

Yesterday the Fed failed to raise rates… again.

It’s pretty incredible if you step back and think about it. Here were are, seven years into a supposed recovery, and the Fed’s actions tell us the economy cannot handle rates higher than 0.25%.

Rates of 0.25% and the word “recovery” do not belong together. The Fed is currently maintaining rates at levels usually reserved for dealing with Crises, NOT recoveries. Heck, the Fed kept rates higher than current levels during the recession following the TECH BUST.

Put another way, seven years into this “recovery” the Fed views the economy as weaker than it was after the Tech Bubble burst in 2002.

At this point, after seven years of ZIRP and $3.5 trillion in QE, shouldn’t we consider alternatives? Maybe we might want to let some other people try running the economy for a change?

After all, if you spent $3.5 trillion and the best you can garner is a recovery that is weaker than the 2001 recession… maybe you’re not cut out for the job of “fixing” the economy.

Moreover, at what point do we start questioning the Fed’s data?

Back in 2012, the Fed claimed it would start to raise rates when unemployment fell to 6.5%. We hit that target over two years ago in April 2014.

The Fed also claimed it would raise rates when inflation hit 2%. Core inflation has been above that level for five months now.

Now the Fed claims that it is concerned about Brexit or China or who knows what, as an excuse not to hike rates.

But the Fed didn’t just fail to hike rates. It also lowered its rate hike forecast to just one rate hike this year (down from two) and possibly three rate hikes next year (down from four).

Despite these dovish developments, stocks cratered. It if weren’t for the usual desperate PPT manipulation, we’d probably have had a mini-Crash.

We may have reached the point at which the Fed has lost all credibility.

The markets are in a massive bubble. The S&P 500 is sporting an EV/EBITDA of over 10. There is simply no way on earth this is not a bubble. Indeed, this reading is even higher than the S&P 500’s EV/EBITDA in 2007: a period that everyone agrees was a bubble.

Earnings are at levels not seen since 2012. Meanwhile stocks are 70% higher than they were during that time.

Meanwhile, bonds or the “smart money” are not buying this rally in stocks at all.

We are heading for a crisis that will be exponentially worse than 2008. The global Central Banks have literally bet the financial system that their theories will work. They haven’t. All they’ve done is set the stage for an even worse crisis in which entire countries will go bankrupt.

On that note, we are already preparing our clients for this with a 21-page investment report titled the Stock Market Crash Survival Guide.

In it, we outline the …read more

Source: The Fed Just Lost ALL Credibility

    

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Iran is the biggest source of new OPEC oil

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Just four months after sanctions were lifted, Iran has ramped up oil production to levels unseen since 2011. The OPEC country is hoping the show of strength will help attract much-needed investment from Western energy companies. …read more

Source: Iran is the biggest source of new OPEC oil

    

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How much does it take to get into the Top 1%?

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There’s a big difference in the income needed to get into the Top 1% depending on the state. …read more

Source: How much does it take to get into the Top 1%?

    

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