Blue Origin crash tests space-tourism capsule
Blue Origin has now reused the same rocket four times after another successful suborbital test flight on Sunday. …read more
Source: Blue Origin crash tests space-tourism capsule
Archive for the ‘Uncategorized’ Category
How The Welfare State Dies
By Tyler Durden
Submitted by Pater Tenebrarum via Acting-Man.com,
Hollande Threatens to Ban Protests
Brexit has diverted attention from another little drama playing out in Europe. As of the time of writing, if you Google “Hollande threatens to ban protests” or variations thereof, you will find Russian, South African and even Iranian press reports on the topic. Otherwise, it’s basically crickets (sole exception: Politico). Gee, we wonder why?
They don’t like him anymore: 120.000 protesters recently turned Paris into a war zone. All Hollande wanted to do was to loosen a handful of labor market restrictions (it’s too little too late of course). France’s labor legislation is among the most convoluted and restrictive in the entire nominally capitalist world. It has created enormous institutional unemployment and is a major contributor to France’s inexorable economic decline (see “France’s Sacred Labor Code” for details).
Given that France is under a “state of emergency” since last year’s terror attacks in Paris, it is presumably easy for Hollande to ban demonstrations by decree, from a legal perspective at least. It seems unlikely though that a ban would actually stop the protesters. What is Hollande going to do if they just continue to strike and hold demonstrations? Invade France? Arrest hundreds of thousands of people?
These protests have been going on for more than a month now. What makes this confrontation so interesting is that Mr. Hollande himself started out as a devoutly committed socialist. Upon coming to power, he immediately introduced a 75% “super-tax” on the rich (causing a number of them to simply pack their bags and leave) and let loose his far-left industry minister Arnaud Montebourg, who’s job it apparently was to spout outdated Marxist slogans and micromanage France’s industries – especially the dying ones.
For a reminder of the days when a gung-ho Montebourg set out to show the world that socialism works after all (if only it is done right!), see “Moving France toward a Command Economy”. Somehow, he failed to deliver the desired results though. Big surprise! The whole world was vastly astonished.
Unemployment in France – even at the peak of the boom, unemployment never fell below 7%. It is fairly typical for an extremely over-regulated welfare state to have a high rate of institutional unemployment, but France is certainly a standout – click to enlarge.
Once Mr. Hollande’s popularity had fallen to such a low level that one would have arrived at a round 100% by adding his approval rating to Vladimir Putin’s (Putin scored 87%, Hollande 13%), he apparently decided he no longer had anything to lose. Montebourg and a number of other cabinet members were kicked out and replaced with more centrist “technocrats” who were tasked with getting the French economy out of its rut.
The attempt to slightly reform the “code du travail” is part of the new program. The proposed modifications are already a compromise, the result of backtracking under the pressure of all sorts of interest groups in Hollande’s own party. …read more
Source: How The Welfare State Dies
Forget Brexit, It’s The Banks Stupid!
By Tyler Durden
Submitted by Alasdair Macleod via GoldMoney.com,
Brexit is not the most important problem facing markets, it is mounting problems in the European banks.
But before looking at that systemic issue, I will summarise the Brexit position, from the trenches, in the last few days before the referendum.
In the run-up to Britain’s referendum on 23rd June, the Treasury was tasked with modelling the economy, post Brexit. The result was George Osborn claimed that a Brexit vote could cost every household £4,300. This is the underlying reason that markets, allegedly, are frightened of Brexit.
One suspects that if the Treasury models had suggested there is little cost to leaving, the result would have not been published and George Osborne would have contrived a different argument. Anyway, we all know that econometric models suffer from garbage in, garbage out, but the Treasury is meant to be authoritative and trusted. However, a new paper by Professor David Blake of the Cass Business school points out “the extraordinary abuse of economic models in the EU Referendum debate”, and he is moved to term the two Treasury reports that gave the Chancellor his facts as “dodgy dossiers”.
Any good Austrian economist can tell you why economic models do not work. Without going into it here, models should simply be disregarded. Professor Blake’s paper exposes the techniques, as well as the statistical assumptions, employed by the British government when using econometric modelling to frighten voters into voting to remain. Separately, a new book co-authored by Dr Radomir Tylecote and Sir Bill Cash charts the history of the EU project, from America’s post-war strategy, implemented through the American Committee on United Europe in 1948, with strategic assumptions that persist to the present day.
The paper and the book taken together expose the truths withheld or obscured by the British government at the time of the first referendum, and the use of a similar approach today. This time, the vested interests and scare tactics used by the government appear to have begun to smell to the electorate like a long-dead rat. Instead, ordinary voters are more worried about the high levels of immigration and the strains placed on health and education services, the housing shortage, and the suppression of wages.
George Osborne has admitted that the Treasury is working with the Bank of England on Brexit contingency plans, but no plans have emerged so far to save the necks of cabinet ministers in the event of a Remain vote. A win for Remain will be only the start of their problems, unless, as seems most unlikely, Remain wins by a clear margin.
In the event of a narrow win for the establishment, which is the outcome pollsters currently expect, claims that it would be better to be inside the EU, where Britain can influence policy, will almost certainly be proved to be an illusion. The UK’s referendum will have threatened the future of the EU project, and it would be entirely natural for a very relieved Brussels to …read more
Source: Forget Brexit, It’s The Banks Stupid!
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Europe’s Message: Those Who Oppose EU Membership Are Violent
By Tyler Durden
Britain’s Daily Star newspaper headline this week made it very clear what the narrative of choice will be for the next few days:
Simply put, as the ironically-titled “Independent” newspaper writes, the final message written by Jo Cox four days before she was killed warned against what she called the “spin” around immigration in the EU debate.
“We cannot allow voters to fall for the spin that a vote to leave is the only way to deal with concerns about immigration.
“We can do far more to address both the level and impact of immigration while remaining in the EU. I very rarely agree with the Prime Minister but on this he’s right: we are stronger, safer and better off in.”
Her husband, Brendan, has said his wife would want the UK to “unite to fight against the hatred that killed her.”
Or roughly translated – Those who oppose EU membership are violent hatemongers.
Don’t believe the “translation”? Here is a prominent ex-European Commissioner who captured Europe’s position loud and clear:
Remember #JoCoxMP. Reject violence. Remain in #EU. Fight for a better world.https://t.co/wGOemq7DIe pic.twitter.com/LZhECq8ATA
— László Andor (@LaszloAndorEU) June 19, 2016
Source: Europe’s Message: Those Who Oppose EU Membership Are Violent
Investing the ‘Beyonce way’
Wall Street veteran Sallie Krawcheck has just launched Ellevest, an online investment firm catering only to women. She wants to stop women from making bad mistakes with their money. …read more
Source: Investing the ‘Beyonce way’
Nigel Farage On Brexit: "We Had Momentum Until This Terrible Tragedy" – Here Are The Latest Odds
By Tyler Durden
Those hoping that some dramatic change in UK public sentiment as manifested through polling for or against Brexit would emerge in the aftermath of Jo Cox’ killing, will be disappointed. As the two most recent polls, one from YouGov/ITV and another from Survation, show opinions remains split right down the middle even as the first unofficial poll by Qriously showed a substantial drop in support for remain:
- U.K. POLL ON EU SHOWS 44% LEAVE, 42% REMAIN: YOUGOV/ITV
- U.K. SURVATION POLL ON EU SHOWS REMAIN 45%, LEAVE 42%
Furthermore, yesterday’s Opinium poll showed the two sides tied at 44%
- U.K. POLL ON EU SHOWS 44% REMAIN, 44% LEAVE: OPINIUM POLL
This is in accordance with the latest FT poll tracker, which also shows Remain and Leave tied at 44% in the newspaper’s poll of polls.
The full breaking of polls over the past month shows that the recent surge in Leave momentum…
… may be topping out:
What about the bookkeepers?
As we reported yesterday, here things are vastly different as Bookies continue to expect “Bremain” to win with a substantial margin perhaps as a result of the faltering recent surge in the Brexit numbers. Here are the latest numbers:
- WILLIAM HILL: U.K. EU REF ODDS AT 3/10 REMAIN; 12/5 LEAVE
Or 77% Remain; 29% Leave
- LADBROKES: U.K. EU REFERENDUM ODDS AT 1/3 REMAIN; 9/4 LEAVE
Or 75% Remain, 31% Leave
As Bloomberg summarizes, the oddschecker survey of bookmakers’ implied probability of Brexit based on betting odds drops to 29.8% at 12:37 pm London time, a sharp from from yesterday when the implied probability of Brexit vote closed at 35.8%. Alternatively, the survey of implied probability for “Remain” vote rose to about 75.2% from 70.4% at the close yesterday.
Also according to the survey, the probability that Britons would choose to leave the EU in the June 23 referendum dropped below 40% Friday, after exceeding 44% Thursday, according to Oddschecker’s survey of bookmakers’ implied probability.
But perhaps the most interest comment came moments ago from Nigel Farage where he told with Peston where he had the following exchange with Robert Peston:
Farage: We have momentum. We did have momentum until this terrible tragedy.
Peston: So the tragedy will have an impact on the outcome.
Farage: It’s had an impact on the whole campaign for everybody.
Peston: What impact is that.
Farage: When you are taking on the establishment, you need to have momentum. I don’t know what is going to happen over the course of the next 3 or 4 days, but I would say this. That the action of one person with serious mental issues, frankly what we saw was an act of terrorism. It’s been a dreadful week: Orlando, killings in Paris, now one of our own MPs. It’s difficult to tell but I just think this: those that have made their mind up to leave, cause they want to get control of their country back, they will go out and vote on Thursday.
.@Nigel_Farage on whether the UK …read more
Source: Nigel Farage On Brexit: "We Had Momentum Until This Terrible Tragedy" – Here Are The Latest Odds
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The next president will likely face a recession
The U.S. is overdue for a recession. Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump will likely have to deal with an economic crisis early in their term as president. …read more
Source: The next president will likely face a recession
‘Game of Thrones,’ NBA Game 7 to do battle
Tough choice Sunday night: Watch the “Game of Thrones” episode entitled “Battle of the Bastards” or the deciding Game 7 of the NBA Finals. …read more
Source: ‘Game of Thrones,’ NBA Game 7 to do battle
‘Dory’ makes for a good movie, but not a good pet
“Finding Dory” should bring in a big box office for Disney and Pixar, but could also have a big impact on the environment it portrays. …read more
Source: ‘Dory’ makes for a good movie, but not a good pet
Top NSA Officials’ Reaction To 9/11: “9/11 Is a Gift To The NSA. We’re Going To Get All Of The Money We Need, And Then Some” … “
What was the NSA’s reaction to 9/11 … the greatest intelligence failure in history?
After all, overwhelming evidence shows that 9/11 was foreseeable. Indeed, Al Qaeda crashing planes into the World Trade Center and the Pentagon was itself foreseeable. Even the chair of the 9/11 Commission said that the attack was preventable.
And a top NSA whistleblower says that the NSA had all of the information it needed prior to 9/11 to stop the attacks. The only reason NSA didn’t share that information with other agencies is because of corruption … in an effort to consolidate power. And see this.
As a high-level NSA whistleblower notes in a brilliant new documentary coming out in September (the best documentary I've ever seen), the reactions to 9/11 by the number 2 and number 3 official at the NSA were:
“9/11 is a gift to the NSA. We’re going to get all of the money we need … and then some”
and
“We’ll milk this cow for 15 years”
How can this be true?
Because mass surveillance has nothing to do with preventing terrorism.
