Safety regulators looking at reports of Tesla flaws
Owners have reported suspension component failures on Model S and Model X Teslas. …read more
Source: Safety regulators looking at reports of Tesla flaws
Archive for the ‘Uncategorized’ Category
Goldman Prepares To Turn Bearish On Oil Again; Boosts 2016 Bond Default Target By 25%
By Tyler Durden
Not content with releasing one bearish note per day, Goldman has upped the ante to two (or more).
Following yesterday’s scathing attack on the ECB by Deutsche Bank, Goldman felt the urge to chime in as well parallel to the German bank’s accusations that Goldman’s former employee, Mario Draghi is set to destroy the Eurozone with his monetary lunacy, and in a note by Huw Pill, Goldman said that “as the ECB shifts from a passive, intermediation-driven form of balance sheet expansion towards a more pro-active QE-driven policy, concerns about the impact on financial stability will inevitably and rightly rise.“
Of course, Goldman couldn’t completely run over its former managing director – just imagine the Goldman-related “discovery” that a criminal probe would reveal – and so it tried to mitigate its sharp assessment, saying “yet the ultimate objective of these ‘active’ central bank balance sheet policies is to revive aggregate demand and boost nominal growth. If successful, the beneficial effects of the macroeconomic improvement on financial stability would more than outweigh the short-run and partial implications coming from incentivising greater risk-taking.”
Right. The only problem is that 8 years later, there has been no boost in aggregate demand, in fact just the opposite, not to mention a total collapse in DB stock as a result of NIRP crushing the NIM carry trade, which is why so many banks and pension funds are now furious at the ECB.
However, it wasn’t just the ECB that Goldman took issues with. In a separate note by Goldman’s HY analysts, the firm announced that it has boost its 2016 default forecast by nearly a quarter, from 17% to 21%, and now expects a substantially greater amount of debt – mostly high yield – to default this year.
Here is Goldman’s math:
After a quiet Jan/Feb, E&P bankruptcies picked up steam in late 1Q ahead of spring borrowing base redeterminations. By our math, about $30bn of par value debt has defaulted in the HY E&P space YTD, representing about a 17% default rate.
On the back of our bottom up analysis we are now raising our full year default forecast to 21% from 17% previously. Note that our numbers exclude many smaller producers without tradable debt. Including this cohort would boost total defaulted E&P debt in 2016 to about $35bn based on our analysis.
One driver of defaults exceeding our forecast in 2016 has been companies preemptively filing prior to a real liquidity crunch. As shown in the chart in the body of this report, a number of E&Ps have recently filed with substantial cash balances. Notably Linn Energy (NC) filed with $1,060mm of cash (11% of total debt balance), SandRidge with $694mm (19%) and Midstates Petroleum with $301mm (15%).
Normally, there would be a silver lining to all these bankruptcies – the one Saudi Arabia has been gunning for all along, namely the collapse in high-cost oil production. Only in this case, the wave of default, while substantial, will hardly put a dent on …read more
Source: Goldman Prepares To Turn Bearish On Oil Again; Boosts 2016 Bond Default Target By 25%
Panic-Buying In USDJPY Saves Stocks From Soros Doom (But Dow Loses 18k)
By Tyler Durden
Today explained in words…
Delete your sell orders
— Ramp Capital™?? (@RampCapitalLLC) June 9, 2016
And pictures…
Another day, another v-shaped recovery as the machines just had to get to Dow 18k…
Stocks still ended the day red (with only The Dow able to momentarily reach unch)…
Since payrolls, futures show yet another v-shaped recovery…
Since payrolls, stocks are on their own… (note gold, bonds, and jpy bid)…
Though today's meltup was all Kuroda… USDJPy 107.00 was all that mattered…
VIX pushed towards 15 from a 12 handle on Tuesday morning…
SKEW (measuring 'tail risk' relative to 'normal' risk) has moved back from 5 month highs in the last 3 days as VIX started to catch up the last few days…
Bonds continued to rally…
10Y closes 1bp above Feb flash-crash close…
The US Dollar index rose today by the most in over 3 weeks…
Crude and copper slumped, Gold and silver pumped despite USD strength…
Gold ansd Silver near one-month highs…
Charts: Bloomberg
Bonus Chart: You have to f##king laugh right…
Source: Panic-Buying In USDJPY Saves Stocks From Soros Doom (But Dow Loses 18k)
Watch As The World’s Most Powerful People Arrive At The 2016 Bilderberg Meeting
By Tyler Durden
As reported previously, starting today politicians, bankers, influential leaders, chiefs of major global businesses, even actors and pundits will meet at the 64th Bilderberg meeting, set to take place over the next three days at the Taschenbergpalais Hotel in Dresden, Germany, where the official agenda will be quite different from what will really be discussed (read this for a full breakdown).
Former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger is set to rub shoulders with disgraced ex-CIA (and current KKR director) Director David H. Petraeus, Philip M. Breedlove, former Supreme Allied Commander Europe, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, Belgian Prime Minister Charles Michel, ex-British MI6 chief John Sawers and IMF boss Christine Lagarde at the
The conference, surrounded by tight hundreds of heavily armed guards and concrete blocks, is notoriously secretive in its discussions which take place under Chatham House rules (nothing can be revealed), and regularly attracts demonstrations against what critics describe as a global meeting of western capitalists, politicians and academics who wield great power behind the scenes.
No journalists are allowed to report on proceedings, however it will be attended by Richard Engel, chief Foreign Correspondent, NBC News, John Micklethwait, Editor-in-Chief, Bloomberg LP and Zanny Minton Beddoes, Editor-in-Chief of The Economist, which is owned by Rothschild, a name which figures intimately in all Bilderberg events.
Other visitors are certainly not welcome at the premises:
#Bilderberg Sends Threatening Eviction Notice To @infowars Reporters – https://t.co/pumfRUmbgD pic.twitter.com/ibnIgQbzPQ
— Alex Jones (@RealAlexJones) June 8, 2016
Daniel Estulin, author of “The True Story of the Bilderberg Group” describes the meetings as “a shadow world government…. [threatening] to take away our right to direct our own destinies (by creating) a disturbing reality. “Imagine a private club where presidents, prime ministers, international bankers and generals rub shoulders, where gracious royal chaperones ensure everyone gets along, and where the people running the wars, markets, and Europe (and America) say what they never dare say in public.”
As reported yesterday, among the dozens of guests included this year are Eric Schmidt, Executive Chairman, Alphabet Inc., which owns Google; Michael O’Leary, CEO, Ryanair; Thomas de Maizière, German Minister of the Interior; Col. Chris Hadfield, Astronaut; and Thomas Enders, CEO, Airbus Group.
And while there is no way to report from inside the hotel, courtesy of social media we at least managed to get a glimpse of the world’s richest and most powerful people as they made their way to the inner sanctum.
The traffic jam:
the kind of traffic jam you get at #Bilderberg pic.twitter.com/fuYyGFrQG8
— Charlie Skelton (@deYook) June 9, 2016
The limos arrive:
limos sneaking in the back of the #Bilderberg.. [just out of shot, a mass of police vans] pic.twitter.com/p2Wuu8dqFS
— Charlie Skelton (@deYook) June 9, 2016
As do the private jets:
Bilderberg members are still arriving via private jet & hanger thru the back exit which makes them impossible to ID pic.twitter.com/wAdQKKBUbb
— Luke Rudkowski (@Lukewearechange) June 9, …read more
Source: Watch As The World’s Most Powerful People Arrive At The 2016 Bilderberg Meeting
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‘Voltron’ and ‘Adventures in Babysitting’ revived
What’s old is new when it comes to children’s TV: Producers are tapping popular titles for ideas for new content — some predate the target audience’s birth by decades. …read more
Source: ‘Voltron’ and ‘Adventures in Babysitting’ revived
Will frackers start pumping like crazy again?
Oil prices have already risen to levels that some companies have signaled would lead them to start pumping again. That runs the risk of creating more turbulence in the oil market.
…read more
Source: Will frackers start pumping like crazy again?
"Most Dangerous" World In A Decade Has Only 10 Countries Not At War
By Tyler Durden
Authored by Adam Withnall, originally posted at The Independent,
The world is becoming a more dangerous place and there are now just 10 countries which can be considered completely free from conflict, according to authors of the 10th annual Global Peace Index.
The worsening conflict in the Middle East, the lack of a solution to the refugee crisis and an increase in deaths from major terrorist incidents have all contributed to the world being less peaceful in 2016 than it was in 2015.
And there are now fewer countries in the world which can be considered truly at peace – in other words, not engaged in any conflicts either internally or externally – than there were in 2014.
According to the Institute for Economics and Peace, a think tank which has produced the index for the past 10 years, only Botswana, Chile, Costa Rica, Japan, Mauritius, Panama, Qatar, Switzerland, Uruguay and Vietnam are free from conflict.
Brazil is the country that has dropped out of the list, and as one of the worst performing countries year-on-year represents a serious concern ahead of the Rio Olympics, the IEP’s founder Steve Killelea told The Independent.
But perhaps the most remarkable result from this year’s peace index, he said, was the extent to which the situation in the Middle East drags down the rest of the world when it comes to peacefulness.
“If we look at the world overall, it has become slightly less peaceful in the last 12 months,” Mr Killelea said.
“But if we took the Middle East out of the index over the last decade – and last year – the world would have become more peaceful. It really highlights the impact the Middle East is having on the world.”
The index shows that 81 countries became more peaceful in the past year, while the situation deteriorated in 79.
Unlike with previous years, however, the IEP noticed a clear trend where the more peaceful countries improved further while the less peaceful countries got even worse – producing what they called greater “peace inequality” across the world.
“The key reason behind it is our inability to solve the conflicts which are emerging,” Mr Killelea said. “The conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq have been going for well over a decade, then it spilled into Syria in 2011, and afterwards into Libya and Yemen. That [failure] is really the key to the problem.
“If we take battlefield deaths for example, they are up at 112,000 – a 20-year high. But again, if you took out Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan, they count for 75 per cent of those deaths.”
The index shows that political instability worsened in 39 countries in the last 12 months, including what the report described as the “striking case” of Brazil.
It has fallen five places to 105th out of the 163 countries included in the study, due to increases in the number of people jailed, the number of security officers deployed by the state and also a slight increase in terrorist activity.
“It is very difficult to say …read more
Source: "Most Dangerous" World In A Decade Has Only 10 Countries Not At War
Oklahoma Cops Unveil New Device Enabling Direct Seizure Of Bank Accounts, Credit Cards
By Tyler Durden
We have covered the disgusting topic of civil asset forfeiture numerous times (most recently here), but the latest move by Oklahoma police is quite simply shocking.
You may have heard of civil asset forfeiture.
That's where police can seize your property and cash without first proving you committed a crime; without a warrant and without arresting you, as long as they suspect that your property is somehow tied to a crime.
Now, the Oklahoma Highway Patrol has a device that also allows them to seize money in your bank account or on prepaid cards.
It's called an ERAD, or Electronic Recovery and Access to Data machine, and state police began using 16 of them last month.
Here's how it works. If a trooper suspects you may have money tied to some type of crime, the highway patrol can scan any cards you have and seize the money.
The local police chief explains… “it's not about taking money…”
ArmstrongEconomics' Martin Armstrong rages...
The one state that has gone complete anti-democratic is Oklahoma. It is wise not to travel in that state at all. Oklahoma should be on a no fly zone. Now Oklahoma police can outright just seize everything you have from debit cards to bank accounts on a traffic stop without any criminal charges being filed – just some policeman “thinks” and your life is over. With no money, you cannot hire a lawyer so they can now just rob everything you have on a whim.
The Oklahoma Highway Patrol has introduced a device that also allows them to seize money in your bank account or on prepaid cards, which they call ERAD, or Electronic Recovery and Access to Data machine. State police began using 16 of theses last month and this is a state now where the police have become literally the highway robbers. This makes the traffic cops in Russia pulling you over for speeding and you just pay them and they go away as a far more civilized arrangement. Here, they can rob you of everything.Let’s say a state trooper “suspects” or just “thinks” you may have money tied to some type of crime – any crime. He can now scan any cards you have and seize the money in your wallet. He does not have to charge you with any crime. He just “thinks” you might be connected to anything he can imagine. There is no right to remain silent, for he is not charging you. He is after all your money because they are broke.
Oklahoma Highway Patrol Lt. John Vincent said. “We’re gonna look for if there’s a difference in your story. If there’s someway that we can prove that you’re falsifying information to us about your business.” So all he has to do is “believe” you lied about anything and he has the right to take everything you have. They justify this claiming it is not about seizing money. Of course not. It is criminal prosecution but there …read more
Source: Oklahoma Cops Unveil New Device Enabling Direct Seizure Of Bank Accounts, Credit Cards
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Oklahoma Cops Unveil New Device Enabling Direct Seizure Of Bank Accounts, Credit Cards
By Tyler Durden
We have covered the disgusting topic of civil asset forfeiture numerous times (most recently here), but the latest move by Oklahoma police is quite simply shocking.
You may have heard of civil asset forfeiture.
That's where police can seize your property and cash without first proving you committed a crime; without a warrant and without arresting you, as long as they suspect that your property is somehow tied to a crime.
Now, the Oklahoma Highway Patrol has a device that also allows them to seize money in your bank account or on prepaid cards.
It's called an ERAD, or Electronic Recovery and Access to Data machine, and state police began using 16 of them last month.
Here's how it works. If a trooper suspects you may have money tied to some type of crime, the highway patrol can scan any cards you have and seize the money.
The local police chief explains… “it's not about taking money…”
ArmstrongEconomics' Martin Armstrong rages...
The one state that has gone complete anti-democratic is Oklahoma. It is wise not to travel in that state at all. Oklahoma should be on a no fly zone. Now Oklahoma police can outright just seize everything you have from debit cards to bank accounts on a traffic stop without any criminal charges being filed – just some policeman “thinks” and your life is over. With no money, you cannot hire a lawyer so they can now just rob everything you have on a whim.
The Oklahoma Highway Patrol has introduced a device that also allows them to seize money in your bank account or on prepaid cards, which they call ERAD, or Electronic Recovery and Access to Data machine. State police began using 16 of theses last month and this is a state now where the police have become literally the highway robbers. This makes the traffic cops in Russia pulling you over for speeding and you just pay them and they go away as a far more civilized arrangement. Here, they can rob you of everything.Let’s say a state trooper “suspects” or just “thinks” you may have money tied to some type of crime – any crime. He can now scan any cards you have and seize the money in your wallet. He does not have to charge you with any crime. He just “thinks” you might be connected to anything he can imagine. There is no right to remain silent, for he is not charging you. He is after all your money because they are broke.
Oklahoma Highway Patrol Lt. John Vincent said. “We’re gonna look for if there’s a difference in your story. If there’s someway that we can prove that you’re falsifying information to us about your business.” So all he has to do is “believe” you lied about anything and he has the right to take everything you have. They justify this claiming it is not about seizing money. Of course not. It is criminal prosecution but there …read more
Source: Oklahoma Cops Unveil New Device Enabling Direct Seizure Of Bank Accounts, Credit Cards
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US Tax Receipts Signaling Recession?
By Tyler Durden
Submitted by Michael Shedlock via MishTalk.com,
US federal personal tax receipts receipts are falling fast. So is the Evercore ISI State Tax Survey.
The last two times the survey plunged this much, the US was already in recession.
Is it different this time?
I like to credit my sources. I picked that chart up from Liz Ann Sonders, Senior Vice President, Chief Investment Strategist, Charles Schwab & Co., Inc.
In turn, Sonders picked that up from Evercore ISI.
I added the recession bars and comments.
Each month, Evercore conducts a State Tax Receipts Survey across 16 states capturing 64% of the US population.
Although 2Q likely up vs 1Q, perhaps not as much as some are hoping as per tax receipts
Evercore ISI tax data pic.twitter.com/0f5IphfIfR— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) June 8, 2016
Unlike Sonders, I am not willing to state second GDP quarter will likely be up vs. first quarter.
Second Quarter GDP Estimates
- New York Fed Nowcast June 3: 2.4% New York Fed Nowcast Up to 2.4% (I’ll Take “The Under”); Modeling Error on Unemployment Rate?
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow June 1: 2.5% GDPNow Forecast Dips to 2.5% Following Construction Report
- Markit June 3: 0.7% to 0.8% Composite PMI Flirts With Contraction; Markit Chief Economist Estimates GDP 0.7-0.8%
- ISM June 3: 1.6% Non-Manufacturing ISM Much Weaker Than Expected
Manufacturing Productivity
For productivity discussion, please see Productivity Declines 0.6%, Labor Costs Rise 4.5%; What’s Going On?
Recession?
Many things are outright screaming recession.
I expect huge revisions on numerous fronts. And I am not the only one.
Source: US Tax Receipts Signaling Recession?
