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By GoldCore

Pensions Timebomb In UK, EU and U.S. in “Slow Motion Detonation”

Pensions in the UK, EU and internationally will go bankrupt as the long awaited ‘pensions time bomb’ detonates in slow motion.

Max Keiser and Stacy Herbert discuss the end of retirement which many Americans, Britons, Europeans and others will suffer as their pensions are decimated in the coming years due to zero percent interest rates and ultra loose monetary policies pursued for the benefit of banks and corporations.

Governments and central banks bailed out banks at the expense of pensioners and the pensions of workers who have been “thrown under the bus”.

In the second half, Max interviews Constantin Gurdgiev, Professor of Finance at Middlebury Institute of International Studies, about the debt situation in Europe and the NAMA and Irish water debacles.

Constantin points out how Ireland’s economic recovery, the EU’s ‘poster boy’ of recovery is tentative at best and based on less than sounds fundamentals.

Diversification remains the key to weathering the impact of the ‘pensions time bomb’. The traditional and typical retirement or pension fund of simply owning a balanced portfolio of just paper assets – equities, bonds and a small allocation to cash – is now a recipe for financial disaster. This is especially the case given the rich valuations seen in stock indices globally but also the fact that global bond markets are at all time record highs due to QE and central bank’s ultra loose monetary policies.

Having a pension without an allocation to gold today is high risk in the extreme and gold has never been more important as a hedging instrument, safe haven asset and pension portfolio insurance.

Direct legal ownership of individually segregated and allocated gold coins and bars will again protect and grow wealth in the coming years.

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www.GoldCore.com

…read more

Source: Pensions Timebomb In UK, EU and U.S. in “Slow Motion Detonation”

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By Tyler Durden

Last November, when the S&P was trading just north of 2000, Goldman’s Charles Himmelbrg revealed his first tactically bearish reason (even as the overall firm was rolling out a se to Top 6 bullish Trades 5 out of which were stopped out at a loss just months into the new year) why stocks are unlikely to go much higher. He dubbed it the “Yellen Call“, which was effectively an argument that US risk rallies will be “self-limiting” as a result of Fed intervention, and explained it as follows:

US equity upside: Limited by the ‘Yellen call’

We see limited upside to equities in 2016. Our US Portfolio Strategy team has a 2016 price target of 2,100 for the S&P 500, suggesting a very modest return of 5% (from current levels). Their framework assumes that 1) earnings per share will rise 10.1%, driven partly by ‘base effects’ in the energy sector and partly by improvements in global growth more generally, but that 2) the price-earnings multiple will fall approximately 5% (to 16.3x from 17.1x), as typically happens during rate-hike cycles. And, due to the delayed timing of rate hikes, the downside risk to price-earnings multiples is probably greater this year because the positive growth surprises that would normally accompany rate hikes are arguably behind us. Since our US GDP forecast envisions mild deceleration in 2016, equities and other risky assets will likely bear the brunt of rate hikes without the usual buffer of better growth data.

We also see a risk that the ‘Bernanke put’ will gradually be replaced by the ‘Yellen call’. The ‘Bernanke put’ captured the intuition that when the risks to growth, inflation and market sentiment are skewed to the downside and the Fed has an easing bias, monetary policy reacts aggressively to bad news. Now that these risks have receded, we expect the Fed will shift to an easing bias, implying that monetary policy will likely begin to react more aggressively to good news. The inflection point for this shift to an easing bias will arguably arrive in 2016, beyond which rallies in risk sentiment may be met by less accommodative monetary policy – the ‘Yellen call’.

It didn’t take long for Goldman to admit it had been wrong about the “Yellen Call” – all it took was the market swoon of January and February for the Yellen Fed to revert back to a “Bernanke Put” baseline.

Our notion of the ‘Yellen call’ was the converse of this – that with labor markets approaching full employment and core PCE inflation rising towards target, meaningful rallies in market sentiment would likely be met with a more robust withdrawal of policy accommodation. And this, logically, would tend to buffer or ‘cap’ the upside potential for risky assets. It hasn’t happened. Market conditions have been considerably more volatile and uncertain than we expected over the first quarter. While we correctly anticipated the downside risk to oil prices and cautioned that this would likely weigh on credit spreads (#4 of …read more

Source: And An Even Louder Warning From Goldman: The "Yellen Call" Is Back And Will Limit Further Market Upside

    

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Disney CEO Bob Iger thinks companies — including his — are simply paying too much in tax to Uncle Sam. …read more

Source: Disney CEO: U.S. taxes are ‘too high’

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By Tyler Durden

It's taken roughly five months, but in addition to having skeptics within the BoJ, NIRP has now encountered political opposition.

Ahead of an Upper House election next month, Shiori Yamao, a former public prosecutor turned policy chief of the Democratic party (the main opposition party to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's Liberal Democratic Party) is calling for the BoJ to get rid of its negative interest rate policy due to… drum roll… shifting the burden onto savers.

“The Democratic Party wants to call for the withdrawal of negative interest rates. Negative interest rates shift the burden onto savers. They cause unease among smaller companies because they make financial institutions unwilling to loan, or prompt them to call loans in early.” Yamao said.

The Democratic Party faces a difficult battle in trying to differentiate itself from Abe's party, and along with calling for NIRP to be rescinded, Yamao is hammering Abe for the decision to delay increasing the sales tax (implicitly admitting Abenomics has failed). The funds from the tax increases were going toward social programs such as bolstering child care to enable mothers to work, and help to the elderly on low incomes. In order to pay for the benefits, Yamao said that regardless of the tax hikes, other bloated areas of spend could be decreased. “We would cut back the wasteful public works which have increased under the LPD government. It's the old pattern of stimulating the economy through public works.”

Only 12% of respondents to a poll published June 6 say they plan to vote for the DP in the Upper House election, while 39% will vote for Abe's LDP.

While it doesn't seem that the votes are there yet to change the course of Abenomics, it is important to note that the dismal economic failure of Abenomics has now become a political issue for the Prime Minister to deal with. As we have detailed many times, Abenomics has failed to boost inflation, failed to boost wages, and has plummeted trade to post crisis lows.

JPY is strengthening and Japanese stocks are tumbling…

If as this continues, the political pressure will continue to grow on Abe, as it appears that the people of Japan are beginning to grow tired of the same old same.

…read more

Source: NIRP Goes Political For Japan’s Abe As Opposition Party Demands "Withdrawal Of Negative Interest Rates"

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By Tyler Durden

Authored by Colum Lynch, originally posted at ForeignPolicy.com,

Saudi Arabia threatened this week to break relations with the United Nations and cut hundreds of millions of dollars in assistance to its humanitarian relief and counterterrorism programs to strong-arm the U.N. into removing Riyadh and its allies from a blacklist of groups that are accused of harming children in armed conflict.

The threat — which has not been previously reported — worked, and the U.N. subsequently dropped the Saudis from a rogues’ gallery of the world’s worst violators of children’s rights in conflict zones.

In their Monday warning, senior Saudi diplomats told top U.N. officials Riyadh would use its influence to convince other Arab governments and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation to sever ties with the United Nations, the officials said. The threats were issued in a series of exchanges between top Saudi officials in Riyadh, including Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir, according to U.N.-based officials. The Saudi mission to the United Nations did not respond to a request for comment Tuesday afternoon.

Riyadh was enraged after U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon included the Saudi-led military coalition in Yemen on a list of countries, rebel movements, and terrorist organizations that killed, maimed, or otherwise abused children in conflict. The 40-page report — which was issued last week and primarily written by Leila Zerrougui, the U.N. chief’s special representative for children and armed conflict — claimed the coalition was responsible for about 60 percent of 1,953 child deaths and injuries in Yemen since last year.

Hoping to mollify the Saudis, Ban issued a statement Monday saying he would remove the Saudi-led coalition from the list, pending a review of the matter by a joint U.N. and Saudi panel. The reversal triggered a wave of criticism of the U.N. from human rights groups, who accused Ban of caving to Saudi intimidation.

“It appears that political power and diplomatic clout have been allowed to trump the U.N.’s duty to expose those responsible for the killing and maiming of more than 1,000 of Yemen’s children,” Sajjad Mohammad Sajid, Oxfam’s country director in Yemen, said in a statement. “The decision to retract its finding is a moral failure and goes against everything the U.N. is meant to stand for.”

The Saudi threat reflects a growing trend by U.N. member states to threaten retaliation against Turtle Bay for challenging their human rights records.

In March, Morocco expelled 84 international staffers from a U.N. peacekeeping mission in the disputed Western Sahara region after Ban characterized the territory as “occupied.” Last year, the United States warned that Congress might cut off funding to the U.N. if it included Israel on the same blacklist of armed entities that killed or injured children in conflict, according to two U.N. diplomatic officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity. In that case, Ban removed Israel from a draft blacklist before it was made public.

Pushing Monday for Riyadh to be delisted, Saudi Arabia’s U.N. ambassador, Abdallah al-Mouallimi, said it was unfair for Israel to be quietly let off the …read more

Source: Saudis Threaten To Leave U.N. Over Human Rights Criticism In Yemen

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By Tyler Durden

According to the US State Department, North Korea has restarted production of plutonium fuel, indicating that it intends to pursue its nuclear weapons program in defiance of international standards, and tougher UN sanctions that were backed by China in March.

The latest developments suggest North Korea's regime is working to ensure a steady supply of materials for its drive to build warheads, Reuters reports.

The US assessment comes a day after a UN nuclear watchdog said it had indications that Pyongyang has reactivated a plant to recover plutonium from spent reactor fuel at Yongbyon, its main nuclear complex. The website 38 North reported last week, based on commercial satellite imagery, that exhaust plumes had been detected twice in May from the thermal plat at Yongbyon's Radiochemical Laboratory, the site's main reprocessing installation. The Institute for Science and International Security also confirmed reports of exhaust emissions from a chimney at the plant.

“They take the spent fuel from the 5 megawatt reactor at Yongbyon and let it cool and then take it to the reprocessing facility and that's where they've obtained the plutonium for their previous nuclear tests. So they are repeating that process, that's what they're doing.” the US offical said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

The country announced last month at a congress of its ruling Workers' Party that it would strengthen its defensive nuclear weapons capability, and although in the past it had obtained key components for its nuclear program from other countries, there was no sign of any recent outside procurement involved in reactivating its plutonium reprocessing said the US official.

There is little proven knowledge about the quantities of weapons-grade uranium or plutonium that North Korea possesses, or its ability to produce either.

From Reuters

There is little proven knowledge about the quantities of weapons-grade uranium or plutonium that North Korea possesses, or its ability to produce either, though plutonium from spent fuel at Yongbyon is widely believed to have been used in its nuclear bombs.

South Korean Defense Minister Han Min-koo said last month the North probably had about 40 kg (88 lb) of plutonium. That would be enough to make eight to 10 bombs, according to experts.

Operating the 5 megawatt reactor could yield about 5-6 kg of plutonium a year, they said.

Experts at the U.S.-Korea Institute at Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies in Washington predicted last year that North Korea's nuclear weapons stockpile could grow to 20, 50 or 100 bombs within five years, from an estimated 10 to 16 weapons at that time.

South Korea's Unification Ministry spokesman Cheong Joon-hee said Seoul was closely watching movements related to the North's nuclear facility “with grave concern”, and a spokesman for China's Foreign Ministry said “we hope all parties can work hard together to put the nuclear issue back on the track of dialogue and negotiations.“

North Korea has already declared itself “a responsible nuclear weapons state” and disavowed the use of nuclear weapons unless its sovereignty is first infringed by others with nuclear …read more

Source: US Says North Korea Has Restarted Production Of Plutonium Fuel

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Nike says it’s backing tennis star Maria Sharapova, even after she was suspended for two years for using a banned drug. …read more

Source: Nike stands by Maria Sharapova despite drug ban

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By Tyler Durden

What is it about former central bankers who first destroy the fiat system with their monetarist policies, only to go into retirement, and preach the virtues of the one compound they spend their entire professional careers trying to destroy: gold. To be sure, when it comes to polar reversals of opinion, nobody comes even remotely close to Alan Greenspan: the former Fed chairman who is not only instrumental in launching the “Great Moderation”, which unleashed the current unprecedented global debt wave which will lead to unprecedented disaster sooner or later, has in recent years become one of gold’s biggest advocates as demonstrated most recently in “Greenspan’s Stunning Admission: “Gold Is Currency; No Fiat Currency, Including the Dollar, Can Match It.”

Now it’s the turn of his former colleague at the Bank of England, Mervyn King, who in an interview with the WGC’s Gold Investor monthly, pours cold water over Bernanke’s “explanation” that gold is merely a tradition, and says the following:

“I am very struck by the fact that over many many years, central banks, governments and individuals have always, despite the protestations of economists, held some gold in their portfolio. Obviously, there is no high running return, but when unexpected things happen, particularly when governments rise and fall, then gold is a means of payment that everyone is always prepared to accept. And I think that’s why even central banks have always had a role in their portfolios for gold,” he adds.”

The then innocently pointed out that when it comes to defense against hyperinflation, gold remains the, well, gold standard:

“It’s still early days to conclude that around the world, governments have found the solution to maintaining price stability with a managed paper currency. We made real progress in the 1990s and early 2000s and a lot of countries went down that road and followed us. But hyper-inflation has clearly not disappeared – the second biggest hyper-inflation in history was in Zimbabwe in this century – so I can understand why holding gold would seem to be a sensible part of a national portfolio. Because there is clearly a need to take some precautions against an unknowable future.”

But the most interesting observation from Mervyn King’s interview comes courtesy of an observation by The Money Trap’s Robert Pringle, who writes the following about “Mervyn King’s alarmist warning“:

According to the World Gold Council, Mervyn King, former governor of the Bank of England, believes that in certain circumstances China’s assets in the US could be “annulled”. Mervyn King’s alarmist warning is made in an interview, entitled “Present perilous, future imperfect” that appears in the June issue of Gold Investor, a WGC publication. After pointing out that “China and other countries do not want to be in a situation where all their iternational assets are in effect dependent on the US”, he is quoted as suggesting that all China’s US assets could be at risk:

“Over the last decade or so, the claims by some emerging market countries on the …read more

Source: Mervyn King’s Alarmist Warning: "All China’s Assets In The US Might Be Annulled"

    

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