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Someone Really Wants This Market To Crash

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By Tyler Durden

Over the past month, the topic of “someone” or “someones” rushing to allocate capital toward expectations of a future volatility surge using such volatility derivatives as VXX, has surfaced on several occasions. The first time was three weeks ago when Tom McClellan pointed out that “VIX futures ETF extremely popular now. Can this possibly end well“…

… when he pointed out something that on the surface was counterintuitive, using his post from February 18 when the market has just reached its most recent selloff bottom:

If VXX worked like other ETFs, then as the SP500 falls and the VIX rises, more investors would chase after it and drive up the total number of shares outstanding in VXX. But instead we see the opposite behavior in the chart above. Right now, VXX shares outstanding are at one of the lowest readings of the past couple of years [ZH: this was written on February 18], and such low readings are reliably associated with meaningful price bottoms for the SP500. So rather than seeing the “hot money” piling into VXX as the VIX rises, its shares outstanding data acts more like a depiction of the “smart money”.

By the same token, XIV’s share price has fallen in 2016 as the VIX has risen, and investors have responded by pouring more money into XIV and thus driving up is number of shares outstanding:

Effectively McCleland used the collapse in VIX shares outstanding in the February rout as an indicator that the seling had exhausted itself. He was right. Two months later, it was the surge in VXX shares that caused concern for McClellan.

He was not alone.

At virtually the same time, none other than Goldman, which incidentally was urging clients to sell volatility, made the same disturbing observation saying that “Our view that the VIX may remain low in the near term is at odds with the VIX ETP market, as investors seem to be pouring money into levered long VIX ETPs.

Goldman made several more notable observations:

As the VIX has declined, the demand for VIX ETPs that benefit from a rise in market volatility remains strong, in particular double-levered VIX ETPs such as UVXY and TVIX

Yet oddly enough, the price for ETPs such as the VIX remained disconnected from the demand, leading to a record surge in shares outstanding and thus market cap. Goldman observed that as well, adding that vega exposure had also shot up to never before seen levels:

In April 2016, the market cap of the UVXY topped $1bn for the first time and vega exposure on the UVXY remains near an all-time high at around 120 million (Exhibit 1). The markets two most popular double levered longs are the UVXY and the TVIX. Their combined vega exposure recently stood at around 190 million vega, about twice the vega in single-levered long products such as VXX and VIXY.

Providing some more color on vega, Goldman added that Vega exposure on longs has tripled since February 11: …read more

Source: Someone Really Wants This Market To Crash

    

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Ex-Google Engineers Launch "Otto": Completely Driverless Truck Testing Underway

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By Tyler Durden

I-80

Submitted by Michael Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

Movement in the autonomous vehicle space accelerated once again.

Four ex-Google engineers, including the man who built Google’s first self-driving car, announced “Otto”, an autonomous truck retrofitting business.

The service isn’t vaporware. “Otto” is currently operating on Nevada highways.

BackChannel reports The Man Who Built Google’s First Self-Driving Car Is Now a Trucker.

Founded by four ex-Google engineers?—?including Anthony Levandowski, the man who built Google’s very first self-driving car?—?Otto is applying Google’s all-or-nothing approach to commercial big rigs: ditch human drivers, avoid thousands of road deaths, help the environment, and if all goes well, make a ton of money along the way.

Otto, which is based in San Francisco, currently has around 40 employees, some of whom previously worked at Apple, Tesla, Cruise Automation and Here Maps. Although the company was formed in January, the LinkedIn profiles of three of Otto’s four founders still show them working at Google.

Otto, which came out of stealth today, is less interested in brand new trucks than in the estimated 4.3m big rigs already on American roads. Otto has already bought and retro-fitted three Volvo cabs with lidar, radar and cameras, and driven a handful of fully autonomous miles?—?without even a safety driver?—?on the highways of Nevada.

It says its aftermarket self-driving kit will sell for a “small fraction” of the $100,000-$300,000 price of a new tractor cab.

Q&A With “Otto” Co-Founder

Backchannel discussed “Otto” with co-founder Lior Ron, an ex-product lead for Google Maps and Google’s Motorola smartphones. A partial transcript follows.

BackChannel: Why commercial transport? Is there anything more old school than a tractor-trailer rig?

Lior Ron: Because of federal regulations, a truck can only drive 11 hours a day today with a single driver. After 10 hours, the accident rate goes exponentially higher. If we can make it drive safely 24/7, more than doubling its capacity and utilization, that’s a very strong financial argument.

BackChannel: I’m guessing that navigating state and government regulations will be a big part of Otto’s future.

Lior Ron: The Department of Transportation and a lot of other great folks are getting involved in bringing the right regulations. And in many states outside of California, there are no specific regulations either way, which means that it’s actually legal to drive and test autonomous vehicles on many roads. We’re going to continue our testing with urgency but also work with regulators and other bodies to show we can have a truck drive itself more safely than a truck driver, all of the time.

BackChannel: But your technology will only work on highways?

Lior Ron: That’s right. There are only 222,000 miles of highway in the US, just 5% of the roads in the country. They’re easier to map and it’s a much more constrained problem to solve than all those city and rural streets. There are no pedestrians or traffic lights but you do drive at high speeds and you do need to see far ahead.

We’re optimizing for this kind of driving, with sensors mounted up on the cabin for …read more

Source: Ex-Google Engineers Launch "Otto": Completely Driverless Truck Testing Underway

    

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Japan’s economy avoids recession

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The Japanese economy grew more than expected in the first quarter, but officials face stiff challenges ahead.

…read more

Source: Japan’s economy avoids recession

    

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British Spymaster Fears The EU Has "Run Its Historical Course"; Warns Of "Populist Uprising"

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By Tyler Durden

None other than the former head of MI6 (the British Secret Intelligence Service) Richard Dearlove expressed his quite candid thoughts on the immigration crisis, as well as the possibility of a British exit from the EU during a speech recently at the BBC. The speech is well worth the listen.

Here are some notable quotes from the speech as it relates to the immigration crisis. The former head of intelligence is quick to point out that despite what the public perception may be, the reality is that there are terrorists already among us.

“When massive social forces are at work, and mass migration is such a force, a whole government response is required, and a high degree of international cooperation.”

“In the real world, there are no miraculous James Bond style solutions. Simply shutting the door on migration is not an option. History tells us that human tides are irresistible, unless the gravitational pull that causes them is removed. Edward Gibbon elegantly charted how Rome, with all it's civic and administrative sophistication and military prowess, could not stop its empire from being overrun by the mass movement of Europe's tribes.”

“We should not conflate the problem of migration with the threat of terrorism. High levels of immigration, particularly from the Middle East, coupled with freedom of movement inside the EU, make effective border conrol more difficult. Terrorists can, and do exploit these circumstances as we saw recently in their movement between Brussels and Paris, and to and from Syria. With large numbers of people on the move, a few of them will inevitably carry the terrorist virus.”

“A number of the most lethal terrorists are from inside Europe, including the UK. They are already among us.”

The EU, as opposed to its member states, has no operational counter-terrorist capability to speak of. Many of the European states look to the UK for training.”

Dearlove also touched on the topic of a British exit from the EU, delivering some very interesting comments around just how much can the EU be trusted to guide everyone's collective future.

The argument that we would be less secure if we left the EU, is in reality rather difficult to make. There would in fact be some gains if we left, because the UK would be fully master of its own house. Counter-terrorist coordination across Europe would certainly continue, and the UK would remain a leader in the field. The idea that the quality of that cooperation depends in any significant way on our EU membership is misleading.”

“Is the EU, faced with the problem of mass migration, able to coordinate an effective response from its member countries. Should the UK stay in and continue struggle for fundamental change, or do we conclude that the effort would be wasted, and that the EU in its extended for has run its historical course. For each of us, this is possibly the most important choice we may ever have to make.”

“Whether we will each be worse off, whether our national security …read more

Source: British Spymaster Fears The EU Has "Run Its Historical Course"; Warns Of "Populist Uprising"

    

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Undeniable Evidence That The Real Economy Is Already In Recession

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By Tyler Durden

Cass Freight Index - Wolfstreet

Submitted by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

You are about to see a chart that is undeniable evidence that we have already entered a major economic slowdown.

In the “real economy”, stuff is bought and sold and shipped around the country by trucks, railroads and planes. When more stuff is being bought and sold and shipped around the country, the “real economy” is growing, and when less stuff is being bought and sold and shipped around the country, the “real economy” is shrinking.

I know that might sound really basic, but I want everyone to be on the same page as we proceed in this article.

Just because stock prices are artificially high right now does not mean that the U.S. economy is in good shape. In fact, there was a stock rally at this exact time of the year in 2008 even though the underlying economic fundamentals were rapidly deteriorating. We all remember what happened later that year, so we should not exactly be rejoicing that precisely the same pattern that we witnessed in 2008 is happening again right in front of our eyes.

During the month of April, the Cass Transportation Index was down 4.9 percent on a year over year basis. What this means is that a lot less stuff was bought and sold and shipped around the country in April 2016 when compared to April 2015. The following comes from Wolf Richter

Freight shipments by truck and rail in the US fell 4.9% in April from the beaten-down levels of April 2015, according to the Cass Transportation Index, released on Friday. It was the worst April since 2010, which followed the worst March since 2010. In fact, shipment volume over the four months this year was the worst since 2010.

This is no longer statistical “noise” that can easily be brushed off.

Of course this was not just a one month fluke. The reality is that we have now seen the Cass Shipping Index decline on a year over year basis for 14 consecutive months. Here is more commentary and a chart from Wolf Richter

The Cass Freight Index is not seasonally adjusted. Hence the strong seasonal patterns in the chart. Note the beaten-down first four months of 2016 (red line):

This is undeniable evidence that the “real economy” has been slowing down for more than a year. In 2007-2008 we saw a similar thing happen, but the Federal Reserve and most of the “experts” boldly assured us that there was not going to be a recession.

Of course then we immediately proceeded to plunge into the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression of the 1930s.

Traditionally, railroad activity has been a key indicator of where the U.S. economy is heading next. Just a few days ago, I wrote about how U.S. rail traffic was down more …read more

Source: Undeniable Evidence That The Real Economy Is Already In Recession

    

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Obama: Worst President In U.S. History?

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By George Washington

Bush was a horrible president. At the time, I thought he was the worst president in American history.

But Obama has made a lot of firsts himself …

For example, Obama:

  • Sentenced whistleblowers to 31 times the jail time of all prior u.s. presidents combined
  • Has granted less pardons than any president since Garfield, who served only 200 days as president before being assassinated in 1881
  • May be the only U.S. president in history who failed to deliver a single year of at least 3% economic growth (when adjusted for inflation)

In addition, Obama has presided over:

And as the New York Times notes this week, Obama has been at war longer than any president in history.

Worst … president … ever.

…read more

Source: Obama: Worst President In U.S. History?

    

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Meet the people behind Uber’s big Chinese rival

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for latest details.

Sponsored:
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…read more

Source: Meet the people behind Uber’s big Chinese rival

    

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Welcome To 1984

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By Tyler Durden

Authored by Chris Hedges, originally posted at TruthDig.com,

The artifice of corporate totalitarianism has been exposed. The citizens, disgusted by the lies and manipulation, have turned on the political establishment. But the game is not over. Corporate power has within its arsenal potent forms of control. It will use them. As the pretense of democracy is unmasked, the naked fist of state repression takes its place. America is about—unless we act quickly—to get ugly.

“Our political system is decaying,” said Ralph Nader when I reached him by phone in Washington, D.C. “It’s on the way to gangrene. It’s reaching a critical mass of citizen revolt.”

This moment in American history is what Antonio Gramsci called the “interregnum”—the period when a discredited regime is collapsing but a new one has yet to take its place. There is no guarantee that what comes next will be better. But this space, which will close soon, offers citizens the final chance to embrace a new vision and a new direction.

This vision will only be obtained through mass acts of civic mobilization and civil disobedience across the country. Nader, who sees this period in American history as crucial, perhaps the last opportunity to save us from tyranny, is planning to rally the left for three days, from May 23 to May 26 at Constitution Hall in Washington, D.C., in what he is calling “Breaking Through Power” or “Citizen’s Revolutionary Week.” He is bringing to the capital scores of activists and community leaders to speak, organize and attempt to mobilize to halt our slide into despotism.

“The two parties can implode politically,” Nader said. “They can be divided by different candidates and super PACs. But this doesn’t implode their paymasters.”

“Elections have become off-limits to democracy,” he went on. “They have become off-limits to democracy’s fundamental civil community or civil society. When that happens, the very roots shrivel and dry up. Politics is now a sideshow. Politics does not bother corporate power. Whoever wins, they win. Both parties represent Wall Street over Main Street. Wall Street is embedded in the federal government.”

Donald Trump, like Hillary Clinton, has no plans to disrupt the corporate machinery, although Wall Street has rallied around Clinton because of her predictability and long service to the financial and military elites. What Trump has done, Nader points out, is channel “the racist, right-wing militants” within the electorate, embodied in large part by the white working poor, into the election process, perhaps for one last time.

Much of the left, Nader argues, especially with the Democratic Party’s blatant rigging of the primaries to deny Bernie Sanders the nomination, grasps that change will come only by building mass movements. This gives the left, at least until these protofascist forces also give up on the political process, a window of opportunity. If we do not seize it, he warns, we may be doomed.

He despairs over the collapse of the commercial media, now governed by the primacy of corporate profit.

“Trump’s campaign has enormous appeal to …read more

Source: Welcome To 1984

    

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Sworn Depositions Of Close Clinton Aides Begin This Week

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By Tyler Durden

The FBI’s probe into Clinton’s use of a private server isn’t the only noose that is keeping Clinton (and the State Department) up at night: this week interviews begin in a separate Judicial Watch civil suit, previously profiled here, against key State Department figures, all of whom just happen to be close co-workers of Hillary.

Accordng to Time, two close Clinton aides, Huma Abedin and Cheryl Mills, will testify under oath this month and next, Judicial Watch announced today. The judge in the case said earlier this month he may force Clinton herself to testify after the first round of interviews is completed. That has set up the prospect of the Democratic front-runner for the White House facing off under oath against one of her most dogged pursuers as early as July, just months before the November election.

It is telling that Judicial Watch’s potentially big win has come not from any dark conspiracy it has uncovered, but from what it has not. The judge has limited the group to a narrow line of inquiry designed to answer a simple question: why did Clinton set up a private server and use it for all her work e-mails as Secretary of State? Clinton says it was matter of convenience, but over the course of the trial, the judge has given credence to the allegation that she was intentionally thwarting the federal laws ensuring government transparency.

And that’s why the messy, drawn out drama over case No. F-2013-08812 matters. Clinton is no stranger to allegations that amount to nothing. From Whitewater to Benghazi her political opponents have tried and failed to find evidence that she committed a crime. A law enforcement official familiar with the separate FBI investigation into how classified information got onto her private server says there is little evidence of a crime there either, though the probe is continuing.

But Clinton may have violated civil law if she intentionally thwarted FOIA or the Federal Records Act, which requires public officials to take a number of steps to preserve and make public their work related documents, according to experts and judges handling the matter in the courts. Which means that for many voters it will be Clinton’s trustworthiness that is on trial in the FOIA case.

According to the Wall Street Journal, depositions will also be given under oath by Lewis Lukens, a former deputy assistant secretary of state, and Bryan Pagliano, the IT staffer who set up Clinton’s private server. The interviews are set to begin this week. Pagliano refused to testify in front of Congress last year citing his fith amendment, but has since been offered immunity by the Justice Department in a twist that some say could be the critical break in any objective probe into Hillary’s activities. As a reminder, Huma Abedin has already testified in the FBI’s investigation into Clinton’s use of a private server.

As is currently the case with the FBI investigation, whether Clinton herself will be forced to testify in the …read more

Source: Sworn Depositions Of Close Clinton Aides Begin This Week

    

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CIA "Accidentally" Deletes Only Copy Of Confidential 6,700-Page Torture Report

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By Tyler Durden

First it was the IRS, which several years ago launched countless headlines, and much laughter, when it announced the emails of Lois Lerner targeting conservatives had magically disappeared. Then, as we observed last week (again with great amusement), the State Department couldn’t seem to find any of the email correspondence to or from Hillary Clinton’s IT aide Bryan Pagliano during the time Hillary was there. Now it is none other than the CIA’s Office of Inspector General that is having an issue with its handling of documents.

According to The Hill, the CIA’s inspector general has accidentally deleted its only copy of a 6,700 page classified Senate report detailing the agency’s history of brutal interrogation techniques.

Although the full torture report has never been released to the public, the Senate did release a 500-page executive summary in 2014. The report detailed the CIA’s use of so-called “enhanced interrogation” techniques, including waterboarding, sleep deprivation, and more, sparking an outcry from a number of human rights groups.

Acting inspector general Christopher Sharpley uploaded the report to the office’s internal computer network and then destroyed the hard disk, apparently following standard protocol, the news outlet reported. Then, someone else in the watchdog’s office reportedly misinterpreted instructions from the Justice Department not to open the file and deleted it from the server.

The CIA, in which the inspector general’s office sits, retains a copy of the full report, and is waiting for the conclusion of a legal battle over the document.

Still, the episode is a humiliating one for the CIA inspector general and has inflamed human rights advocates hoping to make the report public.

Cori Crider, a director with the international rights group Reprieve, called it “stunning,” and suggested that it is part of a broader effort to erase the practices from history.

“One worries that no one is minding the store,” Crider said in a statement.

The Senate report on so-called enhanced interrogation techniques, such as waterboarding and sleep deprivation, has been at the center of a years-long battle on the Intelligence Committee.

What makes the event even more suspicious is that in early 2015, the Justice Department ordered federal agencies not to open the file because doing so would make it subject to the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA). Consequently, last week, a federal appeals court declined to release the report under FOIA because it is considered a congressional document.

Nevertheless, an employee at the CIA inspector general’s office reportedly believed that the Justice Department’s order not to open the file meant that it should be removed, and then deleted it. This left the office without the disk or the network copy.

Oops.

“It’s breathtaking that this could have happened, especially in the inspector general’s office — they’re the ones that are supposed to be providing accountability within the agency itself,” said Douglas Cox, a City University of New York School of Law professor, to Yahoo News, which first reported the deletion. “It makes you wonder what was going on over there?”

Not really: it’s …read more

Source: CIA "Accidentally" Deletes Only Copy Of Confidential 6,700-Page Torture Report

    

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