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Election 2016 – The Next "Advance Auction On Stolen Goods"

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By Tyler Durden

Authored by Doug Casey via InternationalMan.com,

(Doug Casey updates readers about his take on the current crop of would-be presidents… and why he believes most Americans will vote for Trump. It was originally published on April 14th.)

It appears there are two candidates running from the left wing of the Demopublican Party (Hillary and Bernie), and two and a half from the right wing (Trump, Cruz, and Kasich). Note: The media identifies the Lefties by their first names, a friendly and personal thing, unlike the Righties.

I find it distasteful discussing current political figures. But since somebody new is going to be president come November, it makes sense to figure out who that might be, in order to insulate yourself as much as possible from the damage they’ll do.

Let me start by saying that this is not just the most entertaining election I’ve ever witnessed. But after the 1860 election, which Lincoln won with 40% of the popular vote (the remainder split between Stephen Douglas and two other candidates), I suspect it will also be the most divisive, hostile, and critical to the future of the country. Ever.

Why do I say that? Because the U.S. hasn’t been this unstable since the unpleasantness of 1861–1865.

The figures show that the average American’s standard of living has been dropping since about 1971. This is manifestly true relative to the rest of the world. But it’s also true in absolute terms, especially after you back out extraneous factors. For instance, today’s families usually need two breadwinners just to make ends meet. Huge amounts of debt have also helped disguise the decay. The situation is becoming critical with real unemployment closer to 20% than the official 5%. Interest rates are being held at zero to maintain unsupportable levels of debt.

But this isn’t the place for a full economic analysis of the Greater Depression. Let’s just say times are going to get very tough.

When times are tough, people vote for something new. That’s why, at the height of the 2008 crisis, the electorate chose Obama over John McCain. Aside from being old, hostile, and mildly demented, McCain was sure to continue on the then current and unsustainable economic path. Obama’s re-election in 2012 is explained by the fact things improved during his first term. That, and the Republican, Romney, was widely (and correctly) perceived as a politically wired beneficiary of the Deep State.

As you know, I believe we’re now leaving the eye of the great financial hurricane we entered in 2007. Even with (or in many ways because of) the trillions of dollars created over the last eight years, the average guy’s standard of living has continued falling.

People are now widely aware that the rich have been getting radically richer because of QE and ZIRP, and they resent it. Any further hardship occasioned as we go into the hurricane’s trailing edge will likely cause that resentment to become violent.

That accounts for the popularity of Trump and Sanders, but especially Trump. Let’s take a look at …read more

Source: Election 2016 – The Next "Advance Auction On Stolen Goods"

    

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Army Captain Sues President Obama Over Illegal And Unconstitutional War On ISIS

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By Tyler Durden

Submitted by Mike Krieger Of Liberty Blitzkrieg

Army Captain Sues President Obama Over Illegal And Unconstitutional War On ISIS

Before I get into the heart of this piece, I want to once again applaud Bruce Ackerman, professor of law and political science at Yale, and author of “The Decline and Fall of the American Republic.” Mr. Ackerman has sustained a laser-like focus in recent years on exposing Obama’s brazen and unconstitutional penchant for illegal war-making.

I’ve highlighted his powerful opinion pieces on the topic twice before, first in the 2014 post, Obama’s ISIS War is Not Only Illegal, it Makes George W. Bush Look Like a Constitutional Scholar. Here are a few excerpts:

President Obama’s declaration of war against the terrorist group known as the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria marks a decisive break in the American constitutional tradition. Nothing attempted by his predecessor, George W. Bush, remotely compares in imperial hubris.

Mr. Bush gained explicit congressional consent for his invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq. In contrast, the Obama administration has not even published a legal opinion attempting to justify the president’s assertion of unilateral war-making authority. This is because no serious opinion can be written.

But the 2001 authorization for the use of military force does not apply here. That resolution — scaled back from what Mr. Bush initially wanted — extended only to nations and organizations that “planned, authorized, committed or aided” the 9/11 attacks.

Not only was ISIS created long after 2001, but Al Qaeda publicly disavowed it earlier this year. It is Al Qaeda’s competitor, not its affiliate.

Mr. Obama may rightly be frustrated by gridlock in Washington, but his assault on the rule of law is a devastating setback for our constitutional order. His refusal even to ask the Justice Department to provide a formal legal pretext for the war on ISIS is astonishing.

Mr. Ackerman was back the following year with some additional words. From the post, The New York Times Admits – Despite Going to Congress, Obama is Still Defending Unlimited War Powers:

President Obama is going before Congress to request authorization for the limited use of military force in a battle of up to three years against the Islamic State. On the surface, this looks like a welcome recognition of Congress’s ultimate authority in matters of war and peace. But unless the resolution put forward by the White House is amended, it will have the opposite effect. Congressional support will amount to the ringing endorsement of unlimited presidential war making.

The problem is the double-barreled position advanced by Mr. Obama. He asserts that he already has sufficient congressional authority for an open-ended war with the Islamic State, also known as ISIL or ISIS. He bases this claim on an expansive reading of Congress’s 2001 resolution authorizing President George W. Bush to …read more

Source: Army Captain Sues President Obama Over Illegal And Unconstitutional War On ISIS

    

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How Powerball finds winning tickets

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Finding out who won Powerball and where the bought a ticket is a bit more complicated than you’d think

…read more

Source: How Powerball finds winning tickets

    

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Treasury Introduces New Rules To Stop Tax Evasion, Kind Of

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By Tyler Durden

In the wake of the Panama Papers being released, the U.S.Treasury announced that it will use existing powers in order to make two rule changes that are intended to stop tax evasion.

First, in a rule which amends the US Bank Secrecy Act, the Treasury said it will require financial institutions to verify the identity of the real people, or “beneficial owners”, who control companies opening accounts with them. The aim is to prevent true owners of the account from being masked by the names of lawyers or other representatives.

The second rule, which the Financial Times reports is just a proposal at this stage, closes a loophole that Treasury says “allows foreign persons to hide assets in US accounts.” The rule targets foreign owned US entities which can currently operate free of oversight by U.S. tax authorities, most prominently single member LLC's, making them report ownership and transaction data to the IRS.

Treasury Secretary Jack Lew said these steps would “increase transparency and disclosure requirements and empower law enforcement.” Lew also acknowledged that these changes won't stop everything being done to work around the system:

“Despite these efforts, bad actors will continue to seek new ways to exploit the system.

According to the FT, Lew is urging Congress to pass three additional pieces of legislation that will further enhance the disclosure of beneficial owners; require U.S. banks to give more tax information on their customers to foreign counterparts; and approve pending tax treaties with Switzerland and Luxembourg.

These reporting requirements and due diligence activities will certainly come at a significant cost for banks, as much like the Sarbanes-Oxley rules did to companies, the new controls will simply overwhelm the current structure and cause banks to have to invest heavily in furthering their compliance departments.

And then of course, the fact remains that anyone who may be impacted by these changes can just pull their funds and re-route them through Rothschild Wealth Management & Trust, Reno, NV.

They will most assuredly help “navigate what is a complex financial landscape.”

…read more

Source: Treasury Introduces New Rules To Stop Tax Evasion, Kind Of

    

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Zimbabwe To Print Its Own US Dollars Amid Severe Cash Shortage

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By Tyler Durden

When Jim Chanos said earlier this week that days ago that sub-Saharan Africa is facing a severe cash shortage (mostly as a result of their collapsing oil export revenue) he probably did not have the economic basket case of Zimbabwe in mind, and yet this is the country which, after years of monetary and economic collapse “problems”, including the occasional bout of hyperinflation, finds itself in the most dire situation.

As News24 reports, just this past week, Zimbabweans formed long queues outside banks on Thursday as a cash shortage prompted the government to announce plans to print a local version of the US dollar and limit withdrawals.

Indeed, it appears that Zimbabwe is about to unveil yet another monetary experiment in which it will print its own version of the US dollar, as an ailing economy fuels a severe cash shortage.

John Mangudya, Zimbabwe’s central bank governor, said Thursday the so-called bond notes will be backed by $200 million in support from the Africa Export-Import Bank, according to the Herald, a local government-owned newspaper. He also announced restrictions on cash and ATM withdrawals, as well as limits on how much cash people can take outside the country.

In its statement, the central bank explained the cash shortage as follows:

The shortage of USD cash in the country as evidenced by queues at some banks and automated teller machines (ATMs) is attributable to a number of intertwined factors that include:

  • The dysfunctional multi-currency system as a result of the strong USD. In the case of Zimbabwe, the USD has become to be more of a commodity, a safe haven currency or asset than a medium of exchange.
  • Low levels of use of plastic money and the real time gross settlement (RTGS) platforms. Zimbabwe is predominantly a cash economy.
  • Low levels of local production to meet consumer demand, leading to higher demand for foreign exchange to import consumer goods.
  • Low consumer and business confidence as reflected by high appetite by both consumers and business to keep cash outside the banking system.
  • Inefficient distribution and utilization of scarce foreign exchange resources.

“It is not an overnight process,” Mangudya told the Herald when asked what date the bond notes will be issued. “We are still working on a design which will be sent for printing outside the country. The notes will not be introduced immediately but probably within the next two months.”

We wonder if Zimbabwe will use the same money printer as Venezuela, and if so, whether payment upfront will be demanded.

According to IBT, the specially designed dollar notes will come in denominations of two, five, 10 and 20. They will also have the same value as their U.S. dollar equivalents. The bond notes are an extension of so-called bond coins of one, five, 10 and 25 cents which the central bank introduced in 2014 and are pegged to the value of the U.S. dollar.

Humorously, the central bank governor stressed the introduction of the bond notes does not signal the return of the defunct Zimbabwean dollar, which the country …read more

Source: Zimbabwe To Print Its Own US Dollars Amid Severe Cash Shortage

    

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Stocks Slump Most In 3 Months As Commodities & Credit Crash

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By Tyler Durden

Seriously…

First things first – it's payrolls day so we ramp no matter what….

Gold topped stocks post-payrolls and bonds were sold as crude rallied most…

It's been a volatile week…

  • S&P 500 Down 2.3% – Worst 2-week drop in 3 months
  • Dow Transports Down 5.5% – Worst 2-week drop in 4 months
  • AAPL Down 16.6% – Worst 3-week drop since Nov 2008
  • Treasury Bonds – Best 7-Day rally in 3 months
  • European Bank Credit (Subs) Rose 44bps – Worst 2-week spike in 3 months
  • High Yield Bonds (HYG) Down 1.75% – Worst week in 3 months
  • USD Index Up 1.4% – Best week in 6 months
  • Copper Down 5% – Worst week in 4 months
  • China Rebar Down 9.6% – Worst week in 10 months
  • China Iron Ore Down 4% – Worst week in 4 months

And finally, the last 4 weeks have been the worst for US Macro data since March 2015…

But Stocks managed to rally – as we noted above – but ended the week in the red…

S&P bounced off unch for the year and its 50DMA…

VIX tailed immediately as payrolls hit and then as we went red for 2016, VIX was hammered once again to a 14 handle!!

Biotechs were battered thanks to AGN and ENDP…IBB down 8 of the last 10 days…

Meanwhile over at the “no brainer”… AAPL is unchanged since April 2012…

Chesapeake collapsed on collateral call headlines (is there anyone left in managemnt to die?)

Bonds ain't buying it – Credit markets had a realy ugly week (and day) even as stocks dead cat bounced…

And here is why…

Treasury yields fell on the week (but rose today after the dismal jobs data – which makes perfect sense to sell bonds when economic data that has maintained the 'everyting is awesome' narrative is completely destroyed…)

The USD Index rose for the 4th day in a row – despite the apparently dovish crap jobs news…note that commodity currencies (CAD/AUD) were the worst hit…

Commodities rallied on the day despite USD strength with Gold best of all (managing tio get green briefly before being pushed red)… Copper bounced off its 100DMA today

Charts: Bloomberg

Sorry, almost forgot#BREXIT pic.twitter.com/XUBkLQsJll

— Rudolf E. Havenstein (@RudyHavenstein) May 6, 2016

…read more

Source: Stocks Slump Most In 3 Months As Commodities & Credit Crash

    

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Ohio Teen Excited About His Older Unemployed Brother’s Return Home After College

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By Tyler Durden

Fact or Fiction?

GAHANNA, OH – Talking about how fun it will be to “hang out like old times,” local 13-year-old Joey Watkins expressed excitement Thursday upon learning his older brother, who in the current job market has found no prospects for employment, has no choice but to move back home after college.

The eighth-grader was reportedly overjoyed by the news that his 22-year-old brother, Derek, will return to live in his parents’ house after his graduation from Ohio State University, where he has spent much of his senior year researching companies and applying for jobs and internships, but to no avail.

“Man, it’ll be great having Derek around all the time,” Joey said of the depressed and frustrated economics major, who, despite expanding his job search far beyond his areas of interest and sending applications all over the country, cannot find even part-time work among the present supply of entry-level positions. “I haven’t seen him in so long. He was really busy this semester, so he hasn’t been around much since Christmas.”

“I can’t wait to help him unload all his stuff and move back into his room,” Joey continued. “We’re gonna have so much fun!”

Sources confirmed Derek will be staying indefinitely in his old childhood bedroom, which was converted into a home office when he left for college in 2012. According to reports, while Derek was investigating the steps to procuring a real estate license last weekend in a desperate bid to find any source of employment, Joey was helping his parents clean out the room and move his brother’s furniture back in, with the younger sibling reportedly noting how he wanted to make everything look just as it did four years ago so Derek would feel at home.

Joey also conveyed his hopes that Derek—who in his fruitless attempts to find work contacted at least a dozen recruiters online, met with three different career counselors, and attended numerous networking events—will return to his old summer job at the local cineplex so the two brothers can go see movies together for free the way they used to.

“We’ll be able to go to the batting cages every day—it’ll be awesome,” said Joey, whose older brother reportedly has only $500 to his name and hopes to save as much as he can to cover travel expenses to potential job interviews, should he be fortunate enough to land one anytime soon. “There’s so much cool stuff we’ll finally get a chance to do once Derek is home and doesn’t have a bunch of work to do all the time.”

“He’ll even be able to drive me to the mall on days when Mom doesn’t need the car,” Joey added.

Reports indicate that while the younger Watkins has already compiled a long list of things to do with his brother, one that includes watching baseball games, going to McDonald’s, and swimming at a local pool, the college graduate is expected to spend most of his time hunched over a computer scrolling through job listings and sending out …read more

Source: Ohio Teen Excited About His Older Unemployed Brother’s Return Home After College

    

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Hillary Clinton To Face FBI Interview Within Weeks, CBS Reports

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By Tyler Durden

On the heels of interviewing Hillary Clinton’s top personal aide, as we detailed previously, it appears The FBI is finally ready to go after the Emailer-in-chief herself…

Source confirms to @CBSNews Hillary Clinton to be interviewed by the FBI within the coming weeks in the e-mail server investigation.

— Charlie Kaye (@CharlieKayeCBS) May 6, 2016

…read more

Source: Hillary Clinton To Face FBI Interview Within Weeks, CBS Reports

    

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Out of shape: Square tanks on bigger loss

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It’s a bad week for Jack Dorsey. His mobile payments firm Square disappointed Wall Street. And Twitter recently hit an all-time low.

…read more

Source: Out of shape: Square tanks on bigger loss

    

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President Obama Explains What The "Fiction-Peddling" BLS Got Wrong – Live Feed

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By Tyler Durden

Grab your popcorn. Having proclaimed his greatest achievement during his presidency as “saving the world from another Great Depression,” we wonder what President Obama will have to say today when he discusses the economy. Following the decline in corporate profits, a manufacturing sector in recession, an auto industry which is shuttering production, minimum wage state job losses rising, and an equity market that is unable to make new highs, what cynical, skeptical, “fiction-peddlers” will he blame today's dismal jobs data on?

President Barack Obama on Friday will deliver a statement “on the economy and new steps to strengthen financial transparency and combat money laundering, corruption, and tax evasion,” the White House said.

President Obama is due to speak on the economy at 1205ET…

Alternate Live Feed…

How long before Janet gets another visit from the smoke-and-mirrors-er-in-chief?

* * *

While we are at it, we wonder if Obama will explain why Donald Trump's support is soaring if everything is so awesome

President Obama’s remarkable interview last week with the New York Times ‘s Andrew Ross Sorkin shows why historians are likely to assign Mr. Obama a share of responsibility for the rise of Donald Trump.

To be sure, the president was dealt a tough hand in 2009, and he played it brilliantly at first. His much-criticized Treasury secretary, Timothy Geithner, did what was necessary to pull the U.S. financial system back from the brink. Under intense pressure, the president’s team crafted a package of steps that saved the American automobile industry. The Obama administration’s stimulus package, despite its defects, helped slow a steep economic decline, which at its worst was destroying 800,000 jobs monthly.

Mr. Obama has every right to claim credit for preventing a second Great Depression that would have taken down the entire global economy.

This was a great first act. Unfortunately, there was no Act 2 and, as Mr. Sorkin reports, Mr. Obama knows it. The president laments, for example, “our failure in 2012, 2013, 2014, to initiate a massive infrastructure project” means that “there were folks who we could have helped and put back to work and entire communities that could have prospered that ended up taking a lot longer to recovery.”

The only problem with the president’s lament is its chronology. The failure occurred much earlier, in 2009 and 2010, when Mr. Obama still enjoyed the support of a Democratic-led Congress he needed to move boldly. Despite campaigning for a national infrastructure bank in 2008, he didn’t insist on including it in the 2009 stimulus bill. He didn’t even publicly raise the matter until September 2010, when the midterm election was looming and the chance of enacting new legislation was effectively nil.

This was part of a broader strategic decision to move from his initial focus on averting economic disaster to other concerns—notably, the Affordable Care Act and carbon cap-and-trade legislation. Whatever balance of benefits and opportunity costs the focus on health care may have entailed, the months the House spent in 2009 on an environmental bill …read more

Source: President Obama Explains What The "Fiction-Peddling" BLS Got Wrong – Live Feed

    

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