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"Bankers Will Choose To Fly Instead Of Die" – Why Bill Gross Thinks Helicopter Money Is Imminent

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By Tyler Durden

By Bill Gross Of Janus Capital

Culture Clash

A respected reporter recently asked me what were a few important things I had learned from all this and all of that during the past decade and I surprised myself and perhaps him by answering that I now realized that younger generations – the Xers and Millenials – were far different generations from my own. “How so?” he asked. They are ephemerally connected as opposed to hardwired, I replied. They hold history less dear and appreciate freshly baked inclusiveness more; they are inclined to move on instead of settle and build, perhaps because employer loyalty has weakened as well; they are more temporary residents than architects. But they are the future.

The challenge for me as a Boomer, I said, was to understand this, yet not sacrifice my generation’s heritage that had made these evolving differences possible. This generation gap, I continued, was just that – a far distance from one side of a chasm to the other. And yet, I thought, (having concluded the interview) culturally we were much the same: making positive, sometimes obsessive contributions at work; loving our families, our pets. No chasm there to bridge. A common culture. But common cultures themselves morph and sometimes quickly so, producing substantial gaps from one figurative day to the next. Most humans who walked this Earth were alive inside a culture that was constant for centuries, yet now it seemed that technology was mutating standards like a cytoplast or perhaps at worst – a cancer cell. Who could say whether this new life form was positive or negative? Who could say that an older generation was any less an ideal than the succeeding one? My experience of the divide between Boomers and Xers is like that; I recognize that youth will be served, but not always for the better.

Yet, if I (you) understood that to be somewhat true, what should I (you) do differently? How to live a life – this Shakespearian brief candle? Should I listen to the beat of a bass drum instead of an ancient tom-tom? Would I dare dance to strange new music with a different step? “Forward” is my futile response. Forward – with difficult questions. John Denver expressed it succinctly, “If there’s an answer, it’s just that it’s just that way”.

Change propels economies as well as cultures, and sometimes before we are even aware of it. We listen to Trump and Bernie, then Cruz and Hillary as if one of them might be the mythical Wizard of Oz, guiding us down that yellow brick road to reinvigorate growth. They all try to emulate the Wizard of course. “Change you can believe in” was Obama’s mantra and then there was Clinton’s “I come from a city called Hope” and so on. Eisenhower was probably the last honest politician. “I like Ike” was his promise for the future, and I think many voters actually did – like Ike. But back then and certainly now, it was the economy that …read more

Source: "Bankers Will Choose To Fly Instead Of Die" – Why Bill Gross Thinks Helicopter Money Is Imminent

    

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ADP Employment Growth Worst In 3 Years

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By Tyler Durden

Against expectations of a 195k gain, ADP reported just 156k job growth in April with manufacturing losing jobs once again and services job growth clowing quickly to catch down to such negative indicators as ISM Services Employment. This is the worst headline print since April 2013. From last week's job-creation-machine firinmg on all cylinders, Mark Zandi is now more cautious – “The job market appears to have stumbled in April. Job growth noticeably slowed, with some weakness across most sectors. One month does not make a trend, but this bears close watching as the financial market turmoil earlier in the year may have done some damage to business hiring.”

Overall this is the worst print since April 2013…

As Servcies jobs start to fade…

Goods-producing employment dropped by 11,000 jobs in April, down from a downwardly revised 5,000 in March. The construction industry added 14,000 jobs, which was down from March’s 18,000. Meanwhile, manufacturing lost 13,000 jobs after being revised down to -3,000 the previous month.

Service-providing employment rose by 166,000 jobs in April, down from 189,000 in March. The ADP National Employment Report indicates that professional/business services contributed 27,000 jobs, down a bit from March’s 31,000. Trade/transportation/utilities grew by 25,000, well down from the 42,000 jobs added the previous month. Financial activities added just 4,000.

“Despite the softest overall monthly jobs added in three years, small businesses remained an engine for job growth in April,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, VP and head of the ADP Research Institute. “Smaller businesses are less susceptible to global conditions, such as low commodity prices and the strong dollar, that may have caused larger businesses to ease up on hiring.”

Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, “The job market appears to have stumbled in April. Job growth noticeably slowed, with some weakness across most sectors. One month does not make a trend, but this bears close watching as the financial market turmoil earlier in the year may have done some damage to business hiring.”

Full Breakdown…

<img alt="
ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 156,000 Jobs in April
” border=”0″ height=”1598″ src=”http://www.adpemploymentreport.com/2016/April/NER/images/infographic/mai…” width=”598″ />

…read more

Source: ADP Employment Growth Worst In 3 Years

    

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Global Stocks Slide As Dollar Continues Rising: Has The "Pricing In" Of Trump Begun

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By Tyler Durden

While there was no unexpected overnight central bank announcement unlike yesterday’s surprise by the RBA which unleashed volatility havoc in the FX market, which promptly spilled over into all asset classes, overnight stocks around the world saw another leg lower without a tangible catalyst, while EM currencies fell to a one-month low after two Fed presidents raised concern investors had become too complacent in their belief that U.S. interest rate raises will stay on hold. Or perhaps all that is happening is that after ignoring Trump, the market is starting to finally price in the possible reality of the Donald in the White House (although as Jeff Gundlach pointed out, Trump would be a far better president for the economy and the market than Hillary or Bernie).

“Equity market sentiment seems to be rolling over globally as the wind begins to come out of the oil price rally,” said Angus Nicholson, market analyst at IG in Melbourne. “Given the move in commodity prices, the materials and energy sectors are set for a difficult session.”

The dollar has climbed against all its 16 major peers since Monday’s close as Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart called a June rate increase “a real option,” while San Francisco’s John Williams said he would support such a move at the next meeting provided the U.S. economy stayed on track. While both are non-voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee, the outlook for Fed policy is under scrutiny with data on nonfarm payrolls due at the end of the week.

“While the probability of a hike next month is very low, I do think the market is underpricing the chances of a hike after that,” Michael Wang, a strategist at hedge fund Amiya Capital told Bloomberg. “And to that extent emerging markets may be vulnerable.”

As the chart below shows, the market is clearly unprepared for a rate hike and is pricing in a 90% chance of no Fed move next month.

As a result, stocks in Europe and developing nations fell for a fourth straight day while Asian shares have now fallen for the 6th session, their longest losing streak since the February lows. The dollar extended Tuesday’s recovery from the weakest level in almost a year, while Russia’s ruble tumbled the most in more than a week and Malaysia’s ringgit dropped to the lowest since March. After briefly bouncing on yesterday’s API inventory data, oil resumdes its decline before official DOE stockpile data scheduled for release Wednesday that’s forecast to show a fuel glut is expanding.

Europe’s Stoxx 600 Index was down 0.6% with all industry groups in the red. Anheuser-Busch InBev NV slid 3.1% after reporting sales and profit growth that missed estimates. BHP Billiton Ltd. tumbled after it was named in a $44 billion law suit over a dam rupture in Brazil that caused deaths and severe environmental damage. In the green were Siemens, Europe’s largest engineering company, up 0.6% and Societe Generale which rose 3.8% after both reported better earnings than analysts forecast.

The MSCI …read more

Source: Global Stocks Slide As Dollar Continues Rising: Has The "Pricing In" Of Trump Begun

    

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Brazil slaps miners with $44B lawsuit over dam collapse

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The legal fallout from a deadly Brazilian dam collapse is far from over for two of the world’s biggest miners, Vale and BHP Billiton. …read more

Source: Brazil slaps miners with $44B lawsuit over dam collapse

    

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Tax and salary data stolen in ADP cyberattack

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Cyber thieves succeeded in siphoning tax forms for the employees at a dozen companies through the accounts of payroll giant ADP. …read more

Source: Tax and salary data stolen in ADP cyberattack

    

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Teen retailer Aeropostale has filed for bankruptcy

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The clock has run out on embattled teen retailer Aeropostale, which filed for bankruptcy on Wednesday after losing money for 13 consecutive quarters.

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Source: Teen retailer Aeropostale has filed for bankruptcy

    

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Trump is the presumptive GOP nominee

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…read more

Source: Trump is the presumptive GOP nominee

    

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Bad weather brewing: Markets brace for La Niña

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The good news is that the worst El Niño in two decades is fading. The bad news is that it’s likely to be replaced by La Niña.

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Source: Bad weather brewing: Markets brace for La Niña

    

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Trump: Presumptive GOP nominee

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…read more

Source: Trump: Presumptive GOP nominee

    

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Bryce Harper signs record contact with Under Armour

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Washington Nationals star Bryce Harper signs 10-year extension with Under Armour that is richest endorsement deal ever for a baseball player. …read more

Source: Bryce Harper signs record contact with Under Armour

    

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