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Archive for the ‘Uncategorized’ Category

White Lies Matter

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By Tyler Durden

Submitted by Matthew Continetti via NationalReview.com,

How bad is Hillary Clinton’s image? This bad:

Fifty-six percent of Americans view her unfavorably, according to the Huffington Post pollster trend.

One-third of New York Democratic primary voters say she is neither honest nor trustworthy.

Her image, writes Dan Balz, “is at or near record lows among major demographic groups.”

Like, all of them.

Among men, she is at minus 40. Among women, she is at minus 9. Among whites, she is at minus 39. Among white women, she is at minus 25. Among white men, she is 17 positive, 72 negative. Her favorability among whites at this point in the election cycle is worse than President Obama’s ever has been. . . . Among African Americans nationally the NBC–Wall Street Journal poll shows her with a net positive of 51 points. But that’s down 13 points from her first-quarter average and is about at her lowest ever. Among Latinos, her net positive is just two points, down from plus 21 points during the first quarter.

Emphasis mine. No doubt some of this degradation is related to a primary that has turned out to be much more competitive than Clinton imagined. But it’s also worth asking why that campaign has lasted so much longer than we assumed.

A lot of the reason is Clinton: her tin ear, her aloofness, her phony eagerness to please, her suspicion of the press and of outsiders, her — let us say –complicated relationship with the truth, the blithe way in which she dissembles and deceives.

Over the course of three decades in public life Hillary Clinton has misspoken and misled the public and mismanaged herself and her team to such a degree that voters cannot help noticing. Yes, many of her falsehoods are white lies. But white lies accumulate. They matter. Not only do they harm the truth. They are turning Clinton into one of the least popular candidates in history.

Since 1998 Clinton has blamed her poor reputation on the vast right-wing conspiracy. Whitewater, Travelgate, Filegate, the health-care disaster — it was all the fault of the Republicans. What’s forgotten is that Clinton has been lying in the service of her ambitions — most notably by protecting her husband from the truth of his infidelities — since long before Bill ran for president. Nor can she blame conservatives for her failure to win the Democratic nomination eight years ago. Hillary can’t help being secretive and deceptive. It’s her nature.

Think of the transcripts of the speeches she gave to Wall Street audiences. Bernie Sanders would like Clinton to release them. She refuses. Why? “When everybody agrees to do that, I will as well, because I think it’s important we all abide by the same standards.” What baloney. Democratic primary voters see the obvious: Hillary is hiding behind a standard she invented.

What the other candidates have said to bankers isn’t the issue. No one expects Donald Trump to have been anything other than fulsome in his praise of …read more

Source: White Lies Matter

    

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Posted April 25th, 2016 in Uncategorized.

In 1 Out Of Every 5 American Families, Nobody Has A Job

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By Michael Snyder

Family Silhouette - Public Domain 2

If nobody is working in one out of every five U.S. families, then how in the world can the unemployment rate be close to 5 percent as the Obama administration keeps insisting? The truth, of course, is that the U.S. economy is in far worse condition than we are being told. Last week, I discussed the fact that the Federal Reserve has found that 47 percent of all Americans would not be able to come up with $400 for an unexpected visit to the emergency room without borrowing it or selling something. But Barack Obama and his minions never bring up that number. Nor do they ever bring up the fact that 20 percent of all families in America are completely unemployed. The following comes directly from the Bureau of Labor Statistics…

In 2015, the share of families with an employed member was 80.3 percent, up by 0.2 percentage point from 2014. The likelihood of having an employed family member rose in 2015 for Black families (from 76.4 percent to 77.7 percent) and for Hispanic families (from 85.9 percent to 86.4 percent). The likelihood for White and Asian families showed little or no change (80.1 percent and 88.6 percent, respectively).

For purposes of this study, families “are classified either as married-couple families or as families maintained by women or men without spouses present” and they include households without children as well as children under the age of 18.

Digging into the numbers, we find that there were a total of 81,410,000 families in America during the 2015 calendar year.

Of that total, 16,060,000 families did not have a single member employed.

So that means that in 19.7 percent of all families in the United States, nobody has a job.

And of course there are lots more families that are “partially employed”. In other words, maybe the wife has a job but the husband does not.

So based on these numbers, it would appear to me that the true rate of unemployment in this country is vastly higher than 5 percent, and John Williams of shadowstats.com agrees with me. According to his calculations, the broadest measure of unemployment in the U.S. would actually be sitting at 22.9 percent if honest numbers were being used.

But let’s not just focus on where we are.

Let’s take a look at where we are going.

According to Challenger, Gray & Christmas, job cut announcements by big companies in the United States were up 32 percent during the first quarter of 2016 compared to the first quarter of 2015, and it appears that the job losses are going to continue to mount as we roll into the second quarter. For instance, late last week Intel announced that it is going to be laying off 12,000 workers…

As it navigates its path into the future, Intel, the 47-year-old corporation best known for making microprocessor chips that power personal computers, has announced significant changes to its business.

On Tuesday, Intel’s CEO Brian Krzanich said in a letter …read more

Source: In 1 Out Of Every 5 American Families, Nobody Has A Job

    

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Posted April 24th, 2016 in Uncategorized.

A Look At This Week’s Historic Market Anniversary… And What May Come Next

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By Tyler Durden

As BofA’s Michael Harnett reminds us, on Thursday, April 28th, the US equity “bull market” becomes second longest ever. Next Thursday the current bull market will be 2607 days old, exceeding the bull market of June 1949 to August 1956 by one day; the longest bull market ever was October 1990 to March 2000 (3452 days). The following chart shows the evolution of the three Great Bull Markets.

Here are three point from Hartnett for those curious what may come next.

The Path from No. 2 to No. 1

  • First, the last years of the longest ever equity bull market (i.e. the late-90s) were marked by cross-asset volatility and a bubble; that remains a plausible risk scenario.

  • Second, this bull market is trading more like the mid-50s bull market which slowly exhausted itself and then reversed for a year or two as the investment cycle moved to “overheating” in 1956-57 and then brief “recession” in 1956-57. Note how asset markets have struggled to produce upside since the era of excess liquidity came to an end and/or illustrates how low expected returns of bills, bonds, equities, and indeed all risk assets have become thanks to “financial repression”. The total return from a portfolio of equities, bonds, commodities, cash split percentage-wise 50/35/10/5 from the secular lows of 2009 to the end of QE3 in October 2014 of an investment of $100 would have grown to $198. Since the end of QE3 the same portfolio would have fallen 3.4% to a value of $192. Note this also shows a diminishing “wealth effect” for the economy, another reason to be long Main Street, short Wall Street.

  • Third, another factor behind the fatigue is earnings, which as the following chart shows, have also faded in recent quarters (even excluding the energy sector). Our shift in recent years from “raging bull” to “sitting bull” to “volatility bull” reflects low probability of the Higher EPS & Lower Rates in coming quarters.

…read more

Source: A Look At This Week’s Historic Market Anniversary… And What May Come Next

    

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Posted April 24th, 2016 in Uncategorized.

Why Goldman Expects The Japanese Yen To Collapse Within 12 Months

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By Tyler Durden

Forget the G-20 agreement on no “competitive devaluations” – the full court press on the Bank of Japan to engage in the next round of aggressive currency devaluation is on, just three months after Kuroda unveiled Japan’s first negative interest rate.

Recall that it was Goldman who not only brought forward its forecast for a first rate hike from July to April and first suggested earlier this week that it is time for the Bank of Japan to forget about caution and to more than double its purchases of equities in the form of ETFs (and which the BOJ already owns a majority of all available securities) as doing either more NIRP and more QE may no longer have a favorable outcome:

… we think the BOJ is most likely to ease mainly via the qualitative measure, with increasing ETF purchasing the central pillar, with a view to improving business confidence. We think the market is already factoring in an increase in annual purchasing from ¥3.3 tn to ¥5-6 tn, and we thus think the BOJ may look to slightly more than double its current figure to around ¥7 tn.

This pushed both the USDJPY and the S&P off their overnight lows when it was first floated in the early morning of April 20.

Then, on Friday, the Yen had its biggest one day surge since the announcement of the expanded QQE in October 2014 when Bloomberg reported of the latest BOJ trial balloon whereby “the Bank of Japan may consider helping banks lend by offering a negative rate on some loans, according to people familiar with talks at the BOJ.” This happened just as the net spec short position in the USDJPY hit record short, forcing yet another massive squeeze in the currency which soared higher by nearly 300 pips in one day.

Which brings us to today, when in its latest attempt to throw everything at the wall and hope something sticks, Goldman Sachs’ FX team – whose trading recommendations in the past 6 months have been an unmitigated disaster – is predicting that the $/JPY will “move higher again in the near term and continue to forecast $/JPY at 130 a year from now.”

Why does Goldman expect a collapse in the Yen by nearly 20 big figures?

Because as analysts Sylvia Ardagna and Robin Brooks note, “the BoJ faces an important challenge: it needs to reaffirm that the monetary easing arrow of Abenomics is still on course, or the market will price that the central bank is backtracking from the 2% inflation goal. This could be extremely disruptive for the Japanese economy. Using markets jargon, the BoJ is already so long into ‘the reflationary trade’ that it has to continue to deliver further accommodation for the time being.”

In other words, having committed to a terminal expansion of its balance sheet, it is far too late for Kuroda to backtrack, especially since the recent massive growth in its balance sheet has actually led to …read more

Source: Why Goldman Expects The Japanese Yen To Collapse Within 12 Months

    

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Posted April 24th, 2016 in Uncategorized.

The Economy As It Is, Or The Economy As It "Should Be"

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By Tyler Durden

ABOOK Apr 2016 Comml Bankruptcies Retail Hiring

Submitted by Jeffrey Snider via Alhambra Investment Partners,

The mainstream view of the unemployment statistics suggest that any weakness in the US economy, manufacturing or beyond, will be temporary and shallow because employment growth remains robust. The question is not whether the statistics suggest such a trend but rather if those accounts correspond with anything real. As noted earlier this week, even the Federal Reserve’s relatively new measure of broader employment conditions has registered a clear deviation due to economic weakness that amplified toward the end of 2014.

At the very least, there is enormous pressure in the energy sector. It is being felt as a double shot from oil prices affecting direct business and now an almost certain turn in the credit cycle that will shut off additional liquidity just when weaker firms need it the most. The latest quarterly update from oil services giant Schlumberger is all that is necessary to understand the economic “headwind” coming from the energy space:

“The decline in global activity and the rate of activity disruption reached unprecedented levels as the industry displayed clear signs of operating in a full-scale cash crisis,” Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Paal Kibsgaard said in an earnings report Thursday. “This environment is expected to continue deteriorating over the coming quarter given the magnitude and erratic nature of the disruptions in activity.”

No cash and no prospects for achieving more junk flotations mean only more of the worst case – bankruptcies and, for the junk bubble, defaults. The significance of the oil industry is more than just its epic fall from flush and grace; it represents the first segment that has already passed through the economic boundary and there are already a number of other sectors ready to follow into the amplified downdraft. This morning I found that it is both oil and retail that is leading the current turn in bankruptcies already.

The jump in commercial bankruptcies and the timing of it corresponds quite well to what we find in actual consumer spending, especially activity in goods or just retail sales. It does not correlate at all with what the BLS is projecting about hiring and employment in the retail sector. Even if retail pressure is only just beginning, the last trend you would expect to find is sustained hiring at a truly historic rate. Since this downturn in activity is not just a sudden one or two month appearance, it is far more sensible to assume that retailers would have been cautious about staffing far a long time already.

Again, the inflection in commercial bankruptcies, especially retail firms, and the notable and sustained dropoff in retail sales makes sense; the BLS’s calculated strength in hiring in retail and the whole economy does not.

ABOOK Apr 2016 Payrolls Retail

It also cuts against the idea that this is some temporary problem even though temporary (or transitory) now stretches toward a third year. Some of the current …read more

Source: The Economy As It Is, Or The Economy As It "Should Be"

    

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Posted April 24th, 2016 in Uncategorized.

Swedes Revolt Over Refugees Near Schools: Demand "F##king Answers" From Stockholm City Council

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By Tyler Durden

Having documented the growing tensions in Sweden between an immigration-happy government and a nation beset by refugee-crime sprees, it appears 'the people' have had enough. Stockholm residents are upset over the city council's plans to re-locate hundreds of Muslim migrants right next to a school and during a recent meeting, brawls broke out as Swedes exclaimed, “we demand f##king answers, now!” These are not ultra-right-wing nationalists exhorting their racist feelings, these are average Swedes and the revolution is building…

“You just can’t sit there, when we come here looking for answers, and SAY you can’t ANSWER that. That is not OK. There has to be some f**king order in a democracy! But you are NOT answering OUR questions, will want f**king answers! We will stop shouting when you answer out questions!”

As Shoebat notes, unfortunately, these ‘compassionate’ leftists, who have no respect for their own society or even themselves, are not only pushing the European people into a civil war, but possibly a world war.

This town council meeting is just one of the small ‘on the ground’ fires which shows that people are ANGRY they are being ignored and shoved aside along with their families and culture in the name of this ‘new Europe.’ This will end ultimately in nothing short of disaster.

…read more

Source: Swedes Revolt Over Refugees Near Schools: Demand "F##king Answers" From Stockholm City Council

    

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Posted April 24th, 2016 in Uncategorized.

What The Charts Say: No Bull – The Evidence

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By Tyler Durden

Performance

Via NorthmanTrader.com,

Sorry folks, it’s not a bull market. Not yet. The evidence I’ll outline indicates it may be too early to celebrate. I know the headlines are dominated by calls for new highs to come, a bull market in full swing ready to break out of a multi year consolidation. I’ve recently outlined the technical target should a sustained breakout indeed occur, but I’ve also outlined the structural bearish issues I see underlying the market.

Today I’m looking at the technical evidence that, so far, suggests that there is zero evidence to suggest that we are in a bull market. In fact it appears there is risk building that this is a completely broken market in its final inning. Yes we’ve had a massive rally off of the February lows, but the technical evidence is mounting that this may still be a bear market rally.

Why? Because key charts remain decisively bearish and any sizable pullback could literally kill any notion of a bull market.

Consider the actual evidence:

Since QE3 ended in October 2014 main markets in aggregate are in essence flat. Only the $NDX has shown any sizable gains, and advances have been driven by a few select mega cap stocks:

On this basis I have to ask: What bull market?

Note tech, the recent leader, may be on the verge of turning. While the latest sport is to ignore bad earnings key tech stocks are showing serious topping signs.

Let’s look at the $NDX in itself: This chart shows a potential heads and shoulders pattern of size with a broken wedge trend line to boot:

Note the declining RSI and the weakening MACD. New highs are made of this?

Perhaps the underlying individual stock patterns are bullish? Not really.

$MSFT: That recent high showed a massive negative divergence with what appears to be a rounding top and a false breakout:

MSFT

$GOOGL: A similar picture.

GOOGL

$NFLX: Potential heads & shoulders, with a bear flag, broken trend line and horrid MACD:

NFLX

How about the flagship $AAPL? It could go either way I suppose based on the pattern below, but the trend line is also broken and the MACD is below the center line and recently we have seen lower highs. Will declining PC sales and a slowing smartphone market be the driver to new highs? Perhaps the upcoming earnings report next week will provide clarity:

AAPL

In terms of mega cap leaders on the $NDX that leaves us with $AMZN and $FB.

$AMZN: The weekly Bollinger band is now flat and the MACD is showing massive relative weakness. Could it fly back up to the upper Bollinger band? Yes, but a negative divergence is then an almost certainty:

AMZN

$FB, the most consistent stock out there has formed a multi-year wedge pattern and looks to be printing a …read more

Source: What The Charts Say: No Bull – The Evidence

    

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Posted April 24th, 2016 in Uncategorized.

Turkey Blackmails Europe on Visa-Free Travel

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By Tyler Durden

Submitted by Soeren Kern via The Gatestone Institute,

  • The European Union now finds itself in a classic catch-22 situation. Large numbers of Muslim migrants will flow to Europe regardless of whether or not the EU approves the visa waiver for Turkey.

  • “If visa requirements are lifted completely, each of these persons could buy a cheap plane ticket to any German airport, utter the word 'asylum,' and trigger a years-long judicial process with a good chance of ending in a residency permit.” — German analyst Andrew Hammel.

  • In their haste to stanch the rush of migrants, European officials effectively allowed Turkey to conflate the two very separate issues of a) uncontrolled migration into Europe and b) an end to visa restrictions for Turkish nationals.

  • “Why should a peaceful, stable, prosperous country like Germany import from some remote corner of some faraway land a violent ethnic conflict which has nothing whatsoever to do with Germany and which 98% Germans do not understand or care about?” — German analyst Andrew Hammel.

  • “Democracy, freedom and the rule of law…. For us, these words have absolutely no value any longer.” — Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

Turkey has threatened to renege on a landmark deal to curb illegal migration to the European Union if the bloc fails to grant visa-free travel to Europe for Turkey's 78 million citizens by the end of June.

If Ankara follows through on its threat, it would reopen the floodgates and allow potentially millions of migrants from Africa, Asia and the Middle East to flow from Turkey into the European Union.

Under the terms of the EU-Turkey deal, which entered into effect on March 20, Turkey agreed to take back migrants and refugees who illegally cross the Aegean Sea from Turkey to Greece. In exchange, the European Union agreed to resettle up to 72,000 Syrian refugees living in Turkey, and pledged up to 6 billion euros ($6.8 billion) in aid to Turkey during the next four years.

European officials also promised to restart Turkey's stalled EU membership talks by the end of July 2016, and to fast-track visa-free access for Turkish nationals to the Schengen (open-bordered) passport-free zone by June 30.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (left) has boasted that he is proud of blackmailing EU leaders, including European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker (right), into granting Turkish citizens visa-free access to the EU and paying Turkey billions of euros.

To qualify for the visa waiver, Turkey has until April 30 to meet 72 conditions. These include: bringing the security features of Turkish passports up to EU standards; sharing information on forged and fraudulent documents used to travel to the EU and granting work permits to non-Syrian migrants in Turkey.

The European Commission, the administrative arm of the European Union, said it would issue a report on May 4 on whether Turkey adequately has met all of the conditions to qualify for visa liberalization.

During a hearing at the European Parliament on April 21, Marta Cygan, a director in the Commission's migration …read more

Source: Turkey Blackmails Europe on Visa-Free Travel

    

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Posted April 24th, 2016 in Uncategorized.

Wall Street’s Lemmings Have Almost Reached The Cliff

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By Tyler Durden

Global Debt and GDP- 1994 and 2014

Submitted by David Stockman via Contra Corner blog,

I mistakenly took Squawk Box off mute Friday morning. It was just in time to hear one of the regular anchors – the one who makes Joe Kernen sound slightly insightful by comparison – forecast a pick-up in global growth on the grounds that “China is recovering”.

Yes, the credit intoxicated land of the Red Ponzi just tied one on for the record books. During Q1 it generated new debt at a madcap annual rate of $4 trillion or nearly 40% of GDP.

And that incendiary deposit of more unpayable debt, which came on top of the $30 trillion already smothering history’s greatest construction site and open air gambling den, did indeed goose China’s real estate prices, state company CapEx, infrastructure building and steel production. Call it fiat growth because even pyramid building adds to stated GDP, at first.

Even then, the overwhelming share of this explosion of new credit went to pay interest on the existing mountain of IOUs. Charles Ponzi could never have imagined a scam so audacious.

Nor are the red suzerains of Beijing unique in the headlong dash toward the financial cliff. Except for the nicety that Japan’s 30-year and 40-year bonds are trading at a microscopic fraction this side of zero (0.3%), Kuroda and his tiny band of mad men at the BOJ have driven the entirety of Japan’s monumental public debt——which is now actually measured in the quadrillions of yen—–into the netherworld of negative yield.

Needless to say, the visage of an old age colony being hurtled toward the edge of a debt cliff by central bankers who have taken leave of their faculties does not bring the idea of economic recovery and growth immediately to mind.

The same can be said for the ECB’s $90 billion per month bond buying bacchanalia. Having made German bunds so scarce as to have eviscerated any semblance of yield and turned Italy’s sovereign junk into super-bluechips, the ECB will soon be slurping up the corporate bonds of any global company that can fog a BBB credit breathalyzer and plant an SPV within the borders of the EU-19.

What happens when Draghi is finally stopped and the Big Fat Bid of the ECB and its fast money front-runners disappears?

The hopeful CNBC anchor-lady didn’t say. And about what happens if he isn’t stopped, she didn’t say, either.

The fact is, Simple Janet has already proven the end game. Money printing central bankers can’t stop. Were they to allow financial prices to normalize and trillions of bad credit to be liquidated, the whole financial house of cards they have built around the planet would blow sky high. The “soft landing” case is a null set.

The FOMC’s expected stand pat posture at next week’s Fed meeting is just another proof. It was actually 36 months ago that Bernanke triggered the first taper-tantrum when he mused out loud about normalizing interest rates. In the span of time since and as of month 82 of this so-called business expansion, they have come up …read more

Source: Wall Street’s Lemmings Have Almost Reached The Cliff

    

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Posted April 24th, 2016 in Uncategorized.

Billionaire Koch Hints He Could Support Hillary Over Trump

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By Tyler Durden

In a direct jab at republican presidential frontrunner Donald Trump, prominent republican billionaire backer Charles Koch said during an interview on today’s edition of ABC’s “This Week” that Democrat Hillary Clinton might make a better president than the candidates in the Republican field.

Koch, who together with his brother David, has been a prominent source of funding for establishment republicans, said that in some respects Bill Clinton had been a better president than George W. Bush, who Koch said had increased government spending. When asked if Hillary Clinton would be a better president than the Republicans currently running, he said, “It’s possible, it’s possible.“

According to ABC, Koch who leads the influential political organization Freedom Partners, has been displeased so far with the tone of the Republican presidential race.

He is not the only one. Earlier today, The Hill reported that Republican mega-donors, “increasingly fed up with their party’s circus-like presidential primary, are sitting on their checkbooks until the nominee is decided.” With Trump and Cruz the two likeliest nominees, a number of donors say they would rather sit it out and wait to see how the next two months play out before they open their checkbooks again. “I have been called and asked for money and I said, ‘Once we pick a nominee, then I will give money again,’ ” said Minnesota billionaire Stanley Hubbard, who gave an early $50,000 donation to Scott Walker’s super-PAC but has made no significant investment since.

“The problem is that nobody prefers either of those two candidates [Trump or Cruz] and the third candidate [Kasich], no-one thinks he has a chance, so why waste your money?” Hubbard told The Hill.

Some, however, just Koch, are indirectly trying to sway the nomination process in a way that may have just swing the republican nomination upside down.

To be sure, Koch has not fully flipped: asked if he could support Clinton over the Republicans, Koch responded, “We would have to believe her actions would be quite different than her rhetoric. Let me put it that way.”

While many conservatives have questioned Trump’s commitment to their agenda, a spokesman for the Koch brothers said last month that they would not use any of their money to block him from winning the Republican nomination.

That said, Koch’s tacit hint that he may end up supporting a democrat in the election over Trump could once again end up to Donald’s advantage: recall that Trump’s core campaign promise is that he is immune to the money from powerful outside sponsors and third party donors, especially the Koch’s. With today’s statement by Charles Koch, Trump’s position becomes that much more powerful for those supporters who want a candidate who will “break from the mold” of merely perpetuating existing corporate interest groups and powerful lobbies.

Then again, it may all be decided as soon as Tuesday’s multi-state primary, because as we will show the presidential race could be decided as soon the Pennyslvania primary. At that point Koch would have no choice …read more

Source: Billionaire Koch Hints He Could Support Hillary Over Trump

    

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Posted April 24th, 2016 in Uncategorized.

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