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Retailer Bankruptcies Are Hailing Down on the US Economy

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By testosteronepit

Wolf Richter www.wolfstreet.com

Another retailer is heading for bankruptcy. This time Aeropostale, with 800 teen-clothing stores, after three years in a row of losses. It’s “preparing to reorganize under a Chapter 11 bankruptcy, and could file as soon as this month, according to people familiar with the matter,” Bloomberg reported today.

Upon Bloomberg’s propitious report, Aeropostale shares plunged 28% to 15 cents. It has been a penny stock since last September. The New York Stock Exchange, which had threatened the company with delisting, removed the stock before 2 p.m. today, and trading of the shares has been suspended.

Bloomberg:

Aeropostale is trying to work out a loan to finance its operations during the bankruptcy process, according to the people. A deal to avert a filing or find a buyer also could still emerge, they said.

Which is what just about all collapsing retailers are valiantly trying to do. And often to no avail.

In March, Aeropostale had already announced that it would “evaluate strategic alternatives.” It hired Stifel Financial Corp. to work on a sale or restructuring. According to Bloomberg, it’s also working with law firm Weil Gotshal & Manges LLP and FTI Consulting, “people familiar with the matter said last week.”

As in so many cases, there is a private equity angle. PE firm Sycamore Partners owns a large state in Aeropostale and is its main lender. But they have been embroiled in a feud. Sycamore also owns Aeropostale’s key clothing supplier, MGF.

In 2013, when Sycamore acquired its stake in Aeropostale and lent if $150 million, it obtained two seats on the board and set up the supply deal with MGF. Bloomberg:

At the time, Sycamore was seen as possible savior for the troubled chain. Some investors expected the investment firm to eventually acquire the rest of Aeropostale, helping redeem a stock that has been declining since 2010.

But that didn’t work out. These hopeful investors lost their shirts. Sycamore’s two directors left Aeropostale’s board. In March, Aeropostale said that MGF has stopped delivering merchandise in violation of the terms of its agreement, leaving the retailer short on merchandise. MGF, as Bloomberg put it, said “it was merely seeking protection from Aeropostale.”

There are numerous other 1990s and 2000s brands that didn’t quite make the transition in the relentlessly tough US retail environment of squeezed consumers, fickle and picky teens, smart women, shoppo-phobic men, inscrutable millennials, and a brutal shift to online sales.

And now their bankruptcies are hailing down on the US economy with increasing intensity. Here are a few standouts in 2016 and 2015. Note the PE firms behind many of them:

April 16, 2016: Vestis Retail Group, the operator of sporting goods retailers Eastern Mountain Sports (camping, hiking, skiing, adventure sports), Bob’s Stores (family clothing and shoes), and Sport Chalet (general sporting goods), filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. It will close all 56 stores and stop online sales.

In the filing, it blamed the going-out-of-business sales at “certain Sports Authority locations,” plus the weather, which had been too warm, and trouble with …read more

Source: Retailer Bankruptcies Are Hailing Down on the US Economy

    

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Denver Schools To Arm Guards With Military-Style Rifles

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By Tyler Durden

Submitted by Mac Slavo via SHTFPlan.com,

Are children safe in public schools?

If the answer seems pretty obvious, it is confirmation that society has definitely gone to extremes that would not have been recognizable in past decades of American history.

Now Denver-area schools are becoming the first to guard their student populations with military-style semiautomatic rifles, and things certainly appear to be escalating.

via NBC News/AP:

A suburban Denver school district is arming its security staff with military-style semiautomatic rifles in case of a school shooting or other violent attack, a move that appears unprecedented even as more schools arm employees in response to mass violence elsewhere.

The guards, who are not law enforcement officers, already carry handguns.

[…]

The move raised new questions about how far school officials should go in arming employees, a practice that has become standard in the aftermath of the 2012 Sandy Hook Elementary School shootings.

One can only hope that these weapons would stop a shooter before they could hurt anyone, but there isn’t any guarantee.

Active shooters, mass killings and militarized police and security now haunt the halls where education and learning is supposed to be taking place. More children than ever before are on pharmaceutical medications, despite the known links to suicide and homicide. Between Common Core and politically-correct policies, these institutions are teaching that up-is-down, and down-is-up like never before.

One school in Florida even punished a 16-year old student for wrestling a gunman threatening other students to the ground and preventing a shooting. Active shooter and martial law drills have become commonplace, and many of them have been unannounced, causing terror and panic in students and teachers.

While most schools remain “gun-free zones” and have been reluctant to allow teachers to be armed in the case of the worst incidents, many have readily invested in armed security, surveillance technology and counter-terrorism approaches to “safety” in schools.

The result has been a heightened atmosphere that is increasingly paranoid, and ready to treat anyone and everyone as potential suspects – including children:

Ken Trump, a school safety consultant in Cleveland, said the Douglas County case may mark the first time a district has equipped its in-house security officers with semiautomatic rifles.

“Taking this step certainly ratchets up a notch the whole idea, the question of what’s reasonable, what’s necessary in terms of arming officers,” Trump said.

But are they being protected from potential violence, or indoctrinated in a police state society where even children are under sharp suspicion, and misbehavior is criminalized? Can we see down the road as to whether this is likely to tend towards more freedom, or less? More armed citizens is positive, but more guns only in the hands of police, but private and public, may prove not be.

Regardless, it is a precedent for the growing police state society that expects individuals to conform to the masses, and obey authorities at all costs. Michael Snyder argued that public schools are purposely preparing students to live in such a society:

Our …read more

Source: Denver Schools To Arm Guards With Military-Style Rifles

    

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Hundreds Of Chinese Children Mysteriously Fall Ill Suffering From Nose Bleeds, Rashes, Coughing

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By Tyler Durden

Hundreds of school children in East China’s Jiangsu Province have fallen mysteriously ill, suffering from nose bleeds, itching, rashes, coughing, and other complicated symptoms, whose cause has not been determined.

CRI reports that some of the parents alleged that they noticed irritant smells at the school. They suspect that the smell comes from chemical factories near the school, which they believe are the main causes of their children’s symptoms.

This is the second week in a row where students were found to be suffering from the same symptoms in the same province.

As a result, local authorities have mandated that five chemical factories near the school suspend operations. Meanwhile, the school insists on continuing all school activities as usual.

Mckinsey estimated in a 2013 study that China would drive roughly 60% of global chemical market demand growth from 2011 to 2020. As firms scramble to get chemical plants up and running in China, it appears that “safety” was conveniently brushed aside and is now leading to dramatic consequences for all those in the vicinity .

…read more

Source: Hundreds Of Chinese Children Mysteriously Fall Ill Suffering From Nose Bleeds, Rashes, Coughing

    

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47% Of Americans Can’t Even Come Up With $400 To Cover An Emergency Room Visit

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By Tyler Durden

Submitted by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

If you had to make a sudden visit to the emergency room, would you have enough money to pay for it without selling something or borrowing the funds from somewhere?

Most Americans may not realize this, but this is something that the Federal Reserve has actually been tracking for several years now. And according to the Fed, an astounding 47 percent of all Americans could not come up with $400 to pay for an emergency room visit without borrowing it or selling something.

Various surveys that I have talked about in the past have found that more than 60 percent of all Americans are living to paycheck to paycheck, but I didn’t realize that things were quite this bad for about half the country. If you can’t even come up with $400 for an unexpected emergency room visit, then you are just surviving from month to month by the skin of your teeth. Unfortunately, about half of us are currently in that situation.

Earlier today someone pointed me toward an excellent article in The Atlantic that discussed this, and I have to admit that The Atlantic is one of the last remaining bastions of old school excellence in journalism that you will find in the mainstream media. Of course I don’t see eye to eye with them on a lot of things philosophically, but there are some really hard working journalists over there.

The article where I found the 47 percent figure comes from The Atlantic, and it is entitled “The Secret Shame of Middle-Class Americans“. It was authored by Neal Gabler, and he says that he can identify with the 47 percent of Americans that don’t have $400 for an unexpected emergency room visit because he is one of them

I know what it is like to have to juggle creditors to make it through a week. I know what it is like to have to swallow my pride and constantly dun people to pay me so that I can pay others. I know what it is like to have liens slapped on me and to have my bank account levied by creditors. I know what it is like to be down to my last $5—literally—while I wait for a paycheck to arrive, and I know what it is like to subsist for days on a diet of eggs. I know what it is like to dread going to the mailbox, because there will always be new bills to pay but seldom a check with which to pay them. I know what it is like to have to tell my daughter that I didn’t know if I would be able to pay for her wedding; it all depended on whether something good happened. And I know what it is like to have to borrow money …read more

Source: 47% Of Americans Can’t Even Come Up With $400 To Cover An Emergency Room Visit

    

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These SEC Insider Emails Reveal Why No Bankers Have Gone To Jail

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By Tyler Durden

Back In April 2010, the world was stunned when in what would be the first major case dealing with the fallout from the endemic fraud prevalent during the last housing and credit bubble, the SEC charged Goldman Sachs and Paulson with securities fraud over the infamous Abacus CDO, which was subsequently featured in Michael Lewis’ Big Short book and movie. There was also hope that for the first time, bankers – ostensibly from the company that does “God’s work” – would go to prison. None of that happened, and instead just a few months later Goldman walked away with a $550 million slap on the wrist, while a young Goldman banker, French citizen Fabrice Tourre, who was in his late 20’s when Goldman was quietly colluding with Paulson to package a “time bomb” CDO it knew would explode in just a few months, was the only Goldman banker prosecuted. In 2013, Fabrice Tourre, a low-ranking trader, was found liable for violating securities laws and ordered to pay more than $850,000. He also avoided prison time and is now a Ph.D. candidate at the University of Chicago.

He was the only banker who was named in the entire Abacus fraud, something which we laughed at long and hard in 2010 because according to the SEC, this meant the 20-year old was the mastermind behind all of Goldman wrongdoing; nobody else at the firm was aware of what had been going on.

But what was most appalling and what made it clear that the SEC is a captured organization, was not only that no other banker at Goldman was named, but that absolutely everyone avoided prison time setting a disastrous precedent which demonstrated that when it comes to criminal liability, Wall Street will henceforth have a permanent get out of jail free card.

Earlier today, ProPublica’s Jesse Eisinger published a story that looks at the evolution of the SEC’s collapse, and how from a regulatory agency meant to defend investors, it instead mutated into a captured, crony, revolving door (whose employees all too frequently end up working for the same companies they should be prosecuting) farce, whose only purpose is to protect criminal bankers from prison while handing out paltry fines which ultimately are paid by the company’s shareholders while management walks away free.

Eisinger tells the story of one SEC lawyer, perhaps the last SEC lawyer with a conscience, James Kidney, who joined the agency in 1986. “He was thirty-nine at the time, having first worked a stint as a journalist. The “steam was elevated” at the agency when he started there, he said. Young lawyers were expected to go after the big names, and they did: the junk-bond king Michael Milken, the insider trader Ivan Boesky, the investment banker Martin A. Siegel.”

As a trial lawyer, Kidney’s job was to develop a compelling narrative that could be presented to a jury of laymen unfamiliar with the intricacies of finance. “Jim was a great attorney. A lawyer’s lawyer. Sound legal …read more

Source: These SEC Insider Emails Reveal Why No Bankers Have Gone To Jail

    

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A Great Awakening: Public Support For Fake "Free Trade" Deals Plunges

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By Tyler Durden

Submitted by Mike Krieger via Liberty Blitzkrieg blog,

Public opposition to the sovereignty killing corporate giveaway marketed as a free trade deal known as the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) has become so widespread that all the leading candidates for the U.S. Presidency are publicly against it. Specifically, Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders are virulently opposed, while Hillary Clinton is pretending to be against it in order to harvest votes.

Essentially, the more time the American public has to learn about this scam, the more they are against it. Which is precisely why the Obama administration wants to push it through as quickly as possible.

– From the post: Obama to Push Passage of TPP Trade Deal Despite Rising Public Opposition

One of the key themes here at Liberty Blitzkrieg over the past year or so, has been to highlight the fact that the plethora of “free trade” deals (TPP, TTIP and TISA) being promoted by the global robber barons in power are nothing more than fascist corporate handouts (links at the end). Calling them “free trade” deals is purely for PR, and primarily serves as a means for marketing these scams to the ignorant masses.

Fortunately, I have some good news to share. The public is not as ignorant as it used to be. There’s a massive awakening happening, and it’s sweeping these United States as well as Europe.

As Reuters reports in the article, Survey Shows Plunging Public Support for TTIP in U.S. and Germany:

Support for the transatlantic trade deal known as TTIP has fallen sharply in Germany and the United States, a survey showed on Thursday, days before Chancellor Angela Merkel and President Barack Obama meet to try to breathe new life into the pact.

The survey, conducted by YouGov for the Bertelsmann Foundation, showed that only 17 percent of Germans believe the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership is a good thing, down from 55 percent two years ago.

In the United States, only 18 percent support the deal compared to 53 percent in 2014. Nearly half of U.S. respondents said they did not know enough about the agreement to voice an opinion.

Those are absolutely incredible numbers, and can only really be explained by low information voters becoming educated. It reminds me of something I pointed out in last year’s post, As the Senate Prepares to Vote on “Fast Track,” Here’s a Quick Primer on the Dangers of the TPP:

Mr. McConnell could repeat the exercise with a different package, but the delay would add to the risk that the legislation stalls until after Memorial Day recess. That could weigh on the bill’s overall chances, since opponents are generating grassroots opposition across the country.

That just says it all doesn’t it? They need to pass it before the public has a chance to learn about it and oppose it. Typical Washington D.C. bullshit.

The writing was already on the wall a year ago, which is why politicians were scrambling to pass TPP fast track as quickly as possible, which, of …read more

Source: A Great Awakening: Public Support For Fake "Free Trade" Deals Plunges

    

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April Cheers Bring May Tears – Something To Keep You Up At Night

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By Tyler Durden

Submitted by Thad Beversdorf via FirstRebuttal.com,

When people stop trusting a market they stop using that market. Trust is at near 20 year lows. The conundrum is that as volumes decline it becomes ever easier for price insensitive participants to manipulate the market only furthering the distrust. This first three charts depict the deterioration of volumes and capital outflows in the face of a ‘7 year bull’. A hard to explain phenomenon.

Raw Price to Monthly Volume:

Screen Shot 2016-04-21 at 11.33.29 AM

And the capital outflows….

Screen Shot 2016-04-21 at 11.58.31 AM

Now I heard Rick Santelli yesterday discuss whether the market can continue its run to new all time highs. And with the obvious caveat of completely accepting that the fundamentals no longer have any correlation or relevance whatsoever to the market then yes, Santelli believes the market can reach all new highs. On what, one may reasonably ask? Well “kinetic energy”, he says, otherwise known as ‘Animal Spirits’ on Wall Street.

But it’s not so much kinetic energy that is levitating this market devoid of any supportive fundamentals, it is the fact that volumes are thin enough and technology has progressed enough that it has become entirely viable for existing policy champions (NY Fed/Citadel algos) to halt even drastic downward momentum runs and then for corporate treasury departments to grind the markets higher through record buybacks. What we have left is a market of price insensitive participants i.e. corporate treasury departments and the Fed’s cronies (who incidentally make a fortune enacting the manipulation on behalf of the Fed).

Now I know that the last few remaining true believers, because I’ve talked to several, will suggest this explanation is just fancy talk. But I ask you to look at the above charts and explain to me how else a market runs higher for 7 years in the face of the capital and volume exodus that has taken place? Further explain who is stepping in on a 10% or 15% falling knife each time when the market has record short positions on and thus should profit handsomely from a continued (fundamentally sound) price reset?

We can continue to believe the hype but I expect most, and just about everyone I speak to privately, believes the efficient market is dead today just as sound banking died in 1999. And when guys like Santelli start talking about kinetic energy being the driving force behind all new highs, well you better start looking for a place to hide, it’s about to get ugly. These April cheers are about to bring us some gut-wrenching May tears.

I’ve said it a thousand times, you can bend but cannot break natural laws. And while technology and lack of broad participation in the markets can facilitate a bending of the natural laws at some point the fundamentals will release that grim swan …read more

Source: April Cheers Bring May Tears – Something To Keep You Up At Night

    

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The Party Is Over: Regulators Propose To Cap, Defer And Clawback Wall Street Bonuses

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By Tyler Durden

Coming off a year in which Wall Street experienced the lowest average bonus since 2012, it now has to brace itself for new regulation on incentive compensation. One of the last pieces of Dodd-Frank to be written and implemented, regulators are looking to firm up the rules surrounding incentive pay for banks. The final regulation, once agreed upon, will not just apply to banks, it will also apply to investment advisers, broker dealers, credit unions, and executives at mortgage finance companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac according to the Wall Street Journal.

Six agencies have joint responsibility for rewriting the original government plan on Wall Street pay: FDIC, the OCC, the NCUA, the Federal Reserve, the SEC, and the Federal Housing Finance Agency. The National Credit Union Administration plans to meet today to unveil their latest proposal, with the rest of the regulators expected to follow shortly thereafter.

At the heart of the NCUA proposal are three main components: Bonus deferrals, Bonus clawbacks, and Risk Management and Controls. These are all slightly different for each level, defined by total assets of the firm.

Here are the three levels, according to the NCUA proposal

  • Level 1: Greater than or equal to $250 billion
  • Level 2: Greater than or equal to $50 billion and less than $250 billion
  • Level 3: Greater than or equal to $1 billion and less than $50 billion

Below is a quick summary of the key takeaways from each component.

Bonus Deferrals

The key takeaway here is that for Level 1 firms, 60% of a senior executive’s qualifying incentive-based compensation and 50% of a significant risk-taker’s qualifying incentive-based compensation would have to be deferred for at least four years.

Clawbacks

The proposed rule would require clawback provisions that, at a minimum, allow the covered institution to recover incentive-based compensation from a current or former senior executive officer or significant risk-taker for seven years following the date on which such compensation vests, if the covered institution determines that the employee engaged in misconduct that resulted in significant financial or reputational harm.

Risk Management and Controls

Under the proposal, all Level 1 and Level 2 institutions would have to create and implement risk management frameworks and internal controls around incentive based compensation programs. These controls would ensure that incentive based compensation plans are monitored and that the plans appropriately balance risk and reward, as well as ensuring the compliance of the incentive based compensation programs with the institution’s policies and procedures. [ZH: SOX 2.0].

Anyone who wishes to actually read the NCUA’s 278 page proposal in its entirety can do so here.

While we understand the motive behind such policies, the reality of the situation is that instead of incentive based pay, executives and managers will just begin to require (and receive) higher base salaries, as they did after the financial crisis when . This will inevitably put the government in a difficult situation, as the narrative thus far has been that it doesn’t want to dictate how much someone can get paid, it just wants to ensure that …read more

Source: The Party Is Over: Regulators Propose To Cap, Defer And Clawback Wall Street Bonuses

    

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The Party Is Over: Regulators Propose To Cap, Defer And Clawback Wall Street Bonuses

Find The Lowest Price HERE


By Tyler Durden

Coming off a year in which Wall Street experienced the lowest average bonus since 2012, it now has to brace itself for new regulation on incentive compensation. One of the last pieces of Dodd-Frank to be written and implemented, regulators are looking to firm up the rules surrounding incentive pay for banks. The final regulation, once agreed upon, will not just apply to banks, it will also apply to investment advisers, broker dealers, credit unions, and executives at mortgage finance companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac according to the Wall Street Journal.

Six agencies have joint responsibility for rewriting the original government plan on Wall Street pay: FDIC, the OCC, the NCUA, the Federal Reserve, the SEC, and the Federal Housing Finance Agency. The National Credit Union Administration plans to meet today to unveil their latest proposal, with the rest of the regulators expected to follow shortly thereafter.

At the heart of the NCUA proposal are three main components: Bonus deferrals, Bonus clawbacks, and Risk Management and Controls. These are all slightly different for each level, defined by total assets of the firm.

Here are the three levels, according to the NCUA proposal

  • Level 1: Greater than or equal to $250 billion
  • Level 2: Greater than or equal to $50 billion and less than $250 billion
  • Level 3: Greater than or equal to $1 billion and less than $50 billion

Below is a quick summary of the key takeaways from each component.

Bonus Deferrals

The key takeaway here is that for Level 1 firms, 60% of a senior executive’s qualifying incentive-based compensation and 50% of a significant risk-taker’s qualifying incentive-based compensation would have to be deferred for at least four years.

Clawbacks

The proposed rule would require clawback provisions that, at a minimum, allow the covered institution to recover incentive-based compensation from a current or former senior executive officer or significant risk-taker for seven years following the date on which such compensation vests, if the covered institution determines that the employee engaged in misconduct that resulted in significant financial or reputational harm.

Risk Management and Controls

Under the proposal, all Level 1 and Level 2 institutions would have to create and implement risk management frameworks and internal controls around incentive based compensation programs. These controls would ensure that incentive based compensation plans are monitored and that the plans appropriately balance risk and reward, as well as ensuring the compliance of the incentive based compensation programs with the institution’s policies and procedures. [ZH: SOX 2.0].

Anyone who wishes to actually read the NCUA’s 278 page proposal in its entirety can do so here.

While we understand the motive behind such policies, the reality of the situation is that instead of incentive based pay, executives and managers will just begin to require (and receive) higher base salaries, as they did after the financial crisis when . This will inevitably put the government in a difficult situation, as the narrative thus far has been that it doesn’t want to dictate how much someone can get paid, it just wants to ensure that …read more

Source: The Party Is Over: Regulators Propose To Cap, Defer And Clawback Wall Street Bonuses

    

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When Doves Die: Stocks, Bonds, Oil Slump As Silver Pumps’n’Dumps

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By Tyler Durden

Stocks suffer their biggest down day in 2 weeks…

It all looked so hopeful early this morning as those pajama-players bid us back to cycle highs…and then it all fell apart…

As metals were smacked lower by a China margin hike…

Dow lost 18,000, S&P lost 2,100 but Trannies were the worst on the day…Nasdaq managed tro get green at the death…

The last few minutes saw a Dow 18k hunt as VIX was slammed again…and WTYF was that at the close – total fail to clam VIX to get Dow >18k

And Dow and S&P rapidly caught down to Nasdaq's weakness on the week…

Energy and Financials were red today but so were Utes…

Banks weakened today -= is time to catch down to yield curve reality?

And investors flooded out of AAPL (back into bear market territory), rushing into the 'safety' of Biotechs again…

Stock index and VIX ETFs have decoupled again…

Treasuries were also dumped today (a message from The Saudis? or heavy rate locks as issuers cramble to take advantage of recent market openness) – notable steepening today…

The USD Index plunged (as Draghi disappointed and EUR surged) then shot back higher as algos panic-sold EUR when Draghi uttered the magic word – “more”…USD Indexc ended the day unch (and week)

Here's a close up of EURUSD – just for fun, try trading that…Stops run top and bottom…

Crude fell on the day (topping around 815ET) but gold and silver managed to hold small gains as the entire commodity complex was smacked lower around 9amET…

Gold and Silver have had a turbulent week…

As the Gold/Silver ratio jerked higher for the first time in over 2 weeks…

Charts: Bloomberg

…read more

Source: When Doves Die: Stocks, Bonds, Oil Slump As Silver Pumps’n’Dumps

    

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