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Who Will Win The Next Five States: The "Presidential" Walk-Thru

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By Tyler Durden

Coming off big wins in New York this week, Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton look to move one step closer to the nomination next Tuesday as five states (Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island) will be choosing their candidate.

Hillary appears to now be in complete control of the race for the Democratic nomination, while on the Republican side, although Trump is on much better footing after taking the majority of the delegates in New York, speculation remains as to whether or not The Donald can reach the required number of delegates before the GOP convention in July.

Here is where each party stands through the New York primary.

Republicans

Democrats

The Wall Street Journal has a good state-by-state preview of Tuesday’s primaries:

Pennsylvania

Pennsylvania is the next big prize on the presidential primary calendar, but for Republicans, the state’s delegate-selection process gives the statewide winner only 17 of the state’s 71 delegates. The rest are directly elected—and aren’t bound to support any of the Republican presidential contenders at the July convention in Cleveland, making them the ultimate free agents.

Under the decades-old system, well organized campaigns can line up delegates who have committed to backing their candidates and then alert supporters which delegates to vote for on primary day. But even those commitments aren’t binding, giving the 54 remaining delegates big sway at a contested convention.

This year, polls suggest GOP front-runner Donald Trump is primed to steamroll his rivals in Pennsylvania. But the state’s unique delegate-selection process opens the door for Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and Ohio Gov. John Kasich to siphon some of the 54 unbound delegates.

The Democratic race in Pennsylvania is much more straightforward. Hillary Clinton and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders are running for a share of the state’s 189 pledged delegates, to be allocated according to the candidates’ performance statewide and in each of Pennsylvania’s 18 congressional districts.The state was a rare bright spot for Mrs. Clinton in her 2008 primary fight with then-Sen. Barack Obama. She won 54% of the vote, carrying most parts of the state. The exception was Philadelphia and its suburbs, thanks to Mr. Obama’s dominance among the city’s black voters. He won 92% of African-American voters, according to exit polls.

In some ways, this year’s race could flip that script. Those same African-American voters have been the key to Mrs. Clinton’s success this year in her primary fight with Mr. Sanders. Polls show her with a solid lead heading into next week’s contest, thanks in some measure to her strength with nonwhite voters.

Maryland

Mr. Kasich, eyeing a loss in New York’s primary, set his sights on Tuesday’s contest in Maryland as a way to gain momentum ahead of a possible contested GOP convention.

Mr. Kasich has won one state to date—his home state of Ohio—and is hundreds of delegates behind Messrs. Trump and Cruz. The Ohio governor’s only hope of winning his party’s nomination is through a contested convention in the summer. A strong finish in Maryland, which awards 38 delegates, could help …read more

Source: Who Will Win The Next Five States: The "Presidential" Walk-Thru

    

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Dow Dumps Back Below 18,000 – Worst Day In 2 Weeks

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By Tyler Durden

Down over 160 points from overnight highs, The Dow Industrials just lost 18,000 (S&P lost 2,100 also) as VIX pushes back to 14.00… This 0.5% drop is the biggest drop in 2 weeks…

Trannies are worst on the day for now…

…read more

Source: Dow Dumps Back Below 18,000 – Worst Day In 2 Weeks

    

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Dow Dumps Back Below 18,000 – Worst Day In 2 Weeks

Find The Lowest Price HERE


By Tyler Durden

Down over 160 points from overnight highs, The Dow Industrials just lost 18,000 (S&P lost 2,100 also) as VIX pushes back to 14.00… This 0.5% drop is the biggest drop in 2 weeks…

Trannies are worst on the day for now…

…read more

Source: Dow Dumps Back Below 18,000 – Worst Day In 2 Weeks

    

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Why Is The Stock Market So Strong?

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By Tyler Durden

1-SPX and COMP

Submitted by Pater Tenebrarum via Acting-Man.com,

Dismal Earnings, Extreme Valuations

The current earnings season hasn’t been very good so far. Companies continue to “beat expectations” of course, but this is just a silly game. The stock market’s valuation is already between the highest and third highest in history depending on how it is measured.

Corporate earnings are clearly weakening, and yet, the market keeps climbing. The rally is a bit of a “wall of worry” type of phenomenon actually, since many of the negatives are of course widely known.

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite, daily. The vertical blue bar on the right shows the range we expected the rebound to be contained in – this has now clearly been exceeded. However, the technology sector continues to underperform the broader market in this rally – click to enlarge.

After the immediate crash danger receded in February, we expected that a sizable rebound would be in the offing, but it is fair to say that the rebound has by now gone quite a bit further than we expected, if not by much yet. In fact, the S&P 500 Index is almost back at the level of early November as we write this.

Note though that the Nasdaq continues to underperform in the current rally – which has been mainly driven by sectors that were previously weak. In the process, market internals have improved considerably, but the former leading sectors all remain well below their previous peaks. So all is not well just yet, even from a technical perspective.

To see how extremely overvalued the market is, take a look at the chart below, provided by John Hussman, which measures stock market valuation as the ratio of non-financial market capitalization to national non-financial gross value added, including estimated foreign revenues (note: due to stronger internals, Dr. Hussman is currently not strongly bearish in the short term).

2-wmc160418a

In terms of this measure, the market has only been more overvalued than today at the peaks of 1929 and 1999/2000. 1937 came close as well.

We should add that the recent combination of rising stock prices and declining earnings has driven the market’s trailing P/E ratio to its second-highest level in history (we are only considering bull market extremes – in 2008/9, a collapse in earnings drove P/Es even higher). However, at e.g. the 1929 market peak, the S&P’s dividend yield actually exceeded today’s by more than 50% (to be fair, bond yields were significantly higher as well).

Anyway, the main point we want to make is that from a valuation standpoint, investors are playing with fire. Obviously, neither declining earnings nor extreme valuations mean that the market has to decline or cannot keep rising even further. After all, it has happened before. Moreover, the opposite can happen as well: in 1973-1974, S&P 500 earnings rose every quarter – and yet, the market fell by 56%.

Over the long term, the stock market actually rises approximately 67% …read more

Source: Why Is The Stock Market So Strong?

    

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Why Is The Stock Market So Strong?

Find The Lowest Price HERE


By Tyler Durden

1-SPX and COMP

Submitted by Pater Tenebrarum via Acting-Man.com,

Dismal Earnings, Extreme Valuations

The current earnings season hasn’t been very good so far. Companies continue to “beat expectations” of course, but this is just a silly game. The stock market’s valuation is already between the highest and third highest in history depending on how it is measured.

Corporate earnings are clearly weakening, and yet, the market keeps climbing. The rally is a bit of a “wall of worry” type of phenomenon actually, since many of the negatives are of course widely known.

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite, daily. The vertical blue bar on the right shows the range we expected the rebound to be contained in – this has now clearly been exceeded. However, the technology sector continues to underperform the broader market in this rally – click to enlarge.

After the immediate crash danger receded in February, we expected that a sizable rebound would be in the offing, but it is fair to say that the rebound has by now gone quite a bit further than we expected, if not by much yet. In fact, the S&P 500 Index is almost back at the level of early November as we write this.

Note though that the Nasdaq continues to underperform in the current rally – which has been mainly driven by sectors that were previously weak. In the process, market internals have improved considerably, but the former leading sectors all remain well below their previous peaks. So all is not well just yet, even from a technical perspective.

To see how extremely overvalued the market is, take a look at the chart below, provided by John Hussman, which measures stock market valuation as the ratio of non-financial market capitalization to national non-financial gross value added, including estimated foreign revenues (note: due to stronger internals, Dr. Hussman is currently not strongly bearish in the short term).

2-wmc160418a

In terms of this measure, the market has only been more overvalued than today at the peaks of 1929 and 1999/2000. 1937 came close as well.

We should add that the recent combination of rising stock prices and declining earnings has driven the market’s trailing P/E ratio to its second-highest level in history (we are only considering bull market extremes – in 2008/9, a collapse in earnings drove P/Es even higher). However, at e.g. the 1929 market peak, the S&P’s dividend yield actually exceeded today’s by more than 50% (to be fair, bond yields were significantly higher as well).

Anyway, the main point we want to make is that from a valuation standpoint, investors are playing with fire. Obviously, neither declining earnings nor extreme valuations mean that the market has to decline or cannot keep rising even further. After all, it has happened before. Moreover, the opposite can happen as well: in 1973-1974, S&P 500 earnings rose every quarter – and yet, the market fell by 56%.

Over the long term, the stock market actually rises approximately 67% …read more

Source: Why Is The Stock Market So Strong?

    

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JPM Emails High Net Worth Clients, Urging Them To "Stay Invested"

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By Tyler Durden

It appears Bank of America’s high net worth private clients (who together with hedge funds and institutional make up the so-called “smart money” investor category) are not the only ones who have been quietly offloading stocks.

Moments ago, in an email blast to JPMorgan Chase’s own high net worth “Private Clients”, the bank issued an “Update on Market Volatility for Chase Private Clients”, in which it advised clients that while “recent volatility in the markets reminds us that investing can sometimes be unpredictable”, it is encouraging clients to “stay invested.” Perhaps Chase is worried that with the market back to all time highs on nothing but central bank intervention, some of the “more timid elements” are running for cover. One wonders how substantial the liquidations must have been for JPM to send the following email:

Here are some of the hints from the linked pdf:

Recent volatility has reminded investors that markets behave in unpredictable ways. The S&P 500 fell more than 10% last August and again early this year—and regained most of its value in a matter of weeks both times.

Even the most experienced investors find this kind of volatility unsettling. Yes, you may know volatility is part of investing, and risk is a necessary part of reward, but knowing it is one thing—and living with it is another.

It’s no surprise that many investors question themselves during bouts of volatility. But too often they ask the wrong question: “Should I stay in the market…or get out?” Moving in and out of financial markets can actually work against you. “Time in the market”—not “timing the market”—is what ultimately leads to successful investing.

That and of course betting that central banks will keep blowing the biggest bubble in history even bigger.

Some other tips:

  • Create a plan—and keep it up to date
  • Let time smooth out your returns
  • Don’t mistake a bad month for a bad year
  • Diversify, diversify, diversify
  • Be prepared for the turnaround
  • Meet with your advisor at least once a year

Not convinced yet? Read the following 4 page pdf and never sell again.

…read more

Source: JPM Emails High Net Worth Clients, Urging Them To "Stay Invested"

    

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Russia Threatens U.S., Will Respond With "All Necessary Means" To Any NATO Intimidation Attempts

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By Tyler Durden

Last week, the US Navy and Air force were livid when Russian fighter jets first buzzed the US missile destroyer USS Donald Cook in the Baltic Sea, and just days later flew within 50 feet of a US recon plane also flying over the Baltic Sea, which some interpreted as a Russian warning to Poland. The U.S. escalated and complained vocally to Russia (even if Obama did not mention the incident during his phone call with Putin last week).

However, if anyone was expecting Russia to politely apologize to the U.S. for last week’s two “flybys”, they would be drastically disappointed, because as Reuters reported overnight, it was Russia who accused the United States on Wednesday of intimidation by sailing a U.S. naval destroyer close to Russia’s border in the Baltics and warned that the Russian military would respond with “all necessary measures” to any future incidents.

Speaking after a meeting between NATO envoys and Russia, their first in almost two years, Moscow’s ambassador to NATO said the April 11 maritime incident showed there could be no improvement in ties until the U.S.-led alliance withdrew from Russia’s borders.

“This is about attempts to exercise military pressure on Russia,” the envoy, Alexander Grushko, said. “We will take all necessary measures, precautions, to compensate for these attempts to use military force,” he told reporters.

Earlier, U.S. Ambassador to NATO Douglas Lute pressed Russia about the incident, warning it had been dangerous. The United States has said the guided missile destroyer USS Cook was on routine business near Poland when it was harassed by Russian jets.

“We were in international waters,” a NATO diplomat reported Lute as telling Grushko during the NATO-Russia council meeting.

That is not how Russia saw it however. As a reminder, Russia has been quite vocal about NATO expanding ever closer to its borders, and in many ways the Russian action was perhaps to be expected following the striking announcement at the end of March that NATO had changed its Eastern European doctrine from “Assurance” to “Deterrence.”

Despite what officials said was a calm and professional meeting, the public comments highlighted the state of tension that persists between the two sides, and which escalated following the US-led presidential coup in Ukraine, followed by Moscow’s annexation of Crimea in March 2014, culminating with the resignation of Ukraine’s US puppet prime-minister Yatseniuk.

And while Russia’s chief concern has been NATO’s expansion and modernization since the Cold War, which is likely to include a military build-up in eastern Europe with a rotating, multinational force in Poland and the Baltics, NATO says its move is in direct response to previous Russian actions, alleging that the plans are a proportionate response to Russian aggression following Moscow’s annexation of Crimea, and the alliance had no forces in eastern Europe before the Ukraine crisis.

Poland and other NATO members in the Baltics worry about an increase in the Russian military presence in its Kaliningrad enclave, where Russia is positioning longer-range surface-to-air missiles. Ironically, when Russia …read more

Source: Russia Threatens U.S., Will Respond With "All Necessary Means" To Any NATO Intimidation Attempts

    

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Massive Intraday Reversal Slams EUR Lower

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By Tyler Durden

First in precious metals and now in FX, a very visible hand strikes again…

Draghi disappointment turns to EUR-selling euphoria instantly! Makes perfect sense.

…read more

Source: Massive Intraday Reversal Slams EUR Lower

    

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Euro, Bund Yields Spike As Draghi Does Not Reveal Any New Bazookas

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By Tyler Durden

While expectations were for nothing new, it appears positioning was for moar as Draghi’s lack of bazooka-ness has sent European stocks lower as EUR spikes against the USD and German Bund yields soar…

EUR surging…

Bank of America is not happy at this move…

EUR move higher may not last and there is nothing new so far in Draghi’s words that would justify it, BofAML strategist Athanasios Vamvakidis writes in e-mailed comments.

Statement dovish, consistent with recent tone; it shouldn’t have sustained market impact. Emphasis is on open ended policies for as long as it takes.

Bund yields spiking…

As once again they overshot…

We’re gonna need a Draghi jawbone speech tomorrow to save the world.

…read more

Source: Euro, Bund Yields Spike As Draghi Does Not Reveal Any New Bazookas

    

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ECB Keeps Rates Unchanged, Says Corporate Bond Buying Has Begun: EUR Jumps

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By Tyler Durden

As was widely expected, moments ago the “sleepy” ECB announced that all its three key rates remain unchanged: “the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 0.00%, 0.25% and -0.40% respectively.” There was one notably addition: the ECB announced it has “started to expand our monthly purchases under the asset purchase programme to €80 billion” as was also expected considering the tremendous rip in European corporate bonds.

Full statement:

At today’s meeting the Governing Council of the ECB decided that the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 0.00%, 0.25% and -0.40% respectively.

Regarding non-standard monetary policy measures, we have started to expand our monthly purchases under the asset purchase programme to €80 billion. The focus is now on the implementation of the additional non-standard measures decided on 10 March 2016. Further information on the implementation aspects of the corporate sector purchase programme will be released after the press conference on the ECB’s website.

The President of the ECB will comment on the considerations underlying these decisions at a press conference starting at 14:30 CET today.

For Draghi’s presser, check back in 45 minutes.

The initial reaction in the EUR appears to be modest disappointment, as the EUR jumps to session highs.

…read more

Source: ECB Keeps Rates Unchanged, Says Corporate Bond Buying Has Begun: EUR Jumps

    

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