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By Tyler Durden

Submitted by Tony Sagami via MauldinEconomics.com,

How long will interest rates stay low?

I expect the Fed to keep rates very low for a long, long time. After it raised rates in December, the Fed made it clear that future hikes will be gradual and data dependent. Apparently, the central bank hasn't changed its position:

“In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation.“

The US' economic reality hasn't really changed since the first hike. We aren't even close to the Fed's inflation target-not to mention Yellen's other ambitions.

Overall, here are the 3 main reasons why I think the Fed won't lift rates anytime soon.

Reason #1: No Inflation

Before the Federal Reserve lifts interest rates further, it needs to see clear signs that inflation will hit its 2% target. However, cheap energy and falling commodity prices have kept inflation extremely low, and that isn't going to change anytime soon.

The Fed will wait for “further improvement in labor market conditions and a return to 2 percent inflation” to go further with interest rates.

Reason #2: No Economic Recovery

The reason a central bank raises interest rates is to slow an overheating economy. Yet we have only scant signs of economic growth, much less overheating.

Example: The Fed's March report on industrial production showed a 0.5% drop in February after increasing 0.8% in January.

Reason #3: No Wage Growth

The US is a consumer-oriented economy, but American wages have been stagnant for years. In fact, adjusted for inflation, the average yearly wage for American workers has not increased since 1973.

A big reason for the wage stagnation is the dramatic increase in employer-sponsored healthcare costs-while total compensation is rising, the take-home paychecks are not.

Another round of QE is more likely

All of this will likely deter the Fed from raising rates any further.

I believe we're much more likely to see another round of Quantitative Easing before we see a rate hike. John Williams of the San Francisco Fed hinted at this when he said the Fed could “clearly” lower rates again if needed, and use other tools “if necessary.”

…read more

Source: 3 Reasons Interest Rates Will Stay Low Or Go Negative

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By Tyler Durden

Things did not go well for Ted Cruz last night, but his performance in New York's 16th District was especially depressive…

Republican presidential hopeful Ted Cruz was so disliked in Westchester County’s 16th congressional district that residents cast more votes for Ben Carson – who is no longer running…

Carson, who bowed out of the GOP race in March, was still featured on Tuesday’s ballot as his request to be removed was made after the deadline had passed.

Roughly translated…

One final thing…

• CRUZ HAS $9 MILLION IN BANK AS OF END-MARCH: CAMPAIGN MANAGER

tick tock…

…read more

Source: Summing Up Ted Cruz’ Terrible Night (In 1 Painful Table)

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By Tyler Durden

Pride comes before the fall…

The Dow soared once again – why not – to its highest since June 2015 (when Fwd EPS was 1178 as opposed to 1120 currently)…

VIX was slammed down to a 12-handle at the open… which sparked a bounce in VIX but once the S&P fell below 2,100, VIX smash was back on…

Which slammed the VIX term strcuture to Dec 2014 steeps…

Which marked the top then…

The late-day fade today (snapping S&P futures back to VWAP)…

Dragged Nasdaq back into the red for the week…

Energy and Financials remain the leaders on the week as Utes fade…

Nothing to see here, move along..as goes everything

It seems some panic-selling EUR ahead of tomorrow's ECB meeting sparked USD strength – pushing it back to unchanged on the week…

Treasury yields spiked today (almost as if someone was sending a message to Obama as he visited The Sauds)…

Pushing 30Y yields back above their 50DMA… (and the 2Y, 5Y, 7Y, and 10Y)

Commodities were steady until towards the close when stocks rolled over and gold, crude, & silver were slammed lower…

Silver moves are becoming considerably more volatile…back below $17 at the close…

Despite all the denials and negative headlines, crude oil spiked irrationally… above $44 in June contract

As May expired… (May drastically outperforming June into expiration as someone appears to have got squeezed…_)

As it appears the massive unwind of crude hedges was the big driver…but it appears vol has normalized.

Finally – as a reminder of how these 'bounces' end… sometimes…

Charts: Bloomberg

…read more

Source: Stocks Soar To 10-Month Highs On Crude’s FauxPEC Meeting Headlines

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By Tyler Durden

Back in October 2015, Bloomberg reported that Bill Gross made a big bet that Brazil’s credit was improving. He sold enough Brazil CDS to make it a top 10 holding of his $1.4bn Janus Global Unconstrained Bond Fund. As Bloomberg pointed out, the contract maturities were December 2015, March 2016, and June 2016. This was just after CDS prices were starting to come down from recent highs.

Fast forward to today, a time when Brazil just posted its largest budget deficit ever, the economy is expected to contract 3.6%, and the political landscape is in complete meltdown mode as a result of President Rousseff’s impeachment. Bill Gross’ decision to exit the position in March, just as CDS prices are beginning to spike again seems almost prescient.

Bloomberg notes that the fund may still have positions left in Brazil CDS, they’re no longer among the top ten holdings.

…read more

Source: Bill Gross Covers Brazil CDS Trade ‘Just In Time’

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By Tyler Durden

Submitted by Claire Bernish via TheAntiMedia.org,

Utah isn’t exactly known as a hotbed of socially lenient legislation, but Governor Gary R. Herbert plans to chisel in stone the state’s erstwhile Puritanical reputation by signing two pieces of legislation to combat the “sexually toxic environment” ostensibly induced by pornography.

Sexually explicit material — its long and storied history notwithstanding — would be deemed in Utah “a public health hazard leading to a broad spectrum of individual and public health impacts and societal harms,” should Herbert follow through on a promise to sign S.C.R. 9 into law.

This brief but surprisingly comprehensive list of the ills of pornography includes generally accepted theories about the objectification of women, alongside more hotly-contested links between porn and violence. But S.C.R. 9 delves into the arguably unfounded, as well.

According to the Concurrent Resolution on the Public Health Crisis — which proudly declares itself the first legislation of its kind in the U.S. — porn can detrimentally “impact brain development and functioning, contribute to emotional and medical illnesses, shape deviant sexual arousal, and lead to difficulty in forming or maintaining intimate relationships, as well as problematic or harmful sexual behaviors and addiction.”

Though this resolution places no legal strictures on pornography — it isn’t a ban on porn — listing unfounded theoretical generalizations will, of course, present numerous challenges to what many consider a personal freedom frankly deserving privacy. In fact, listed with multiple potentially toxic effects on women and children are a few lines equating porn’s users to hapless, helpless addicts who must need the assistance of a nanny-state government’s intervention to break their habit — which, as anyone familiar with Prohibition will recognize, is a thoroughly useless endeavor.

But this is Utah, and there is an additional proposed legislation in the form of a bill with teeth.

House Bill 155, titled Reporting of Child Pornography, appears to have the commendable aim of ending child pornography — but its method of doing so should seriously concern privacy advocates and small business owners.

If H.B. 155 should become law, computer technicians will essentially become de facto arms of the surveillance state, as they would be required to “immediately” report to law enforcement “any” images of child pornography found on a client’s computer. As the bill’s text states:

“A computer technician who willfully does not report an image” to their employer, an appropriate law enforcement agency or the “Cyber Tip Line at the National Center for Missing and Exploited Children … is guilty of a class B misdemeanor.”

In Utah, that failure to report would be considered on par with “assault, resisting arrest, DUI, reckless driving,” and carrying a concealed weapon, among other offenses. It could land the technician up to a $1,000 fine and/or a six-month jail sentence.

Utah, in other words, essentially stands poised to make not telling on one’s neighbor a crime punishable by time behind bars. Despite the obvious noble intent behind this legislation, setting such a precedent could create an inexhaustible ripple where reporting …read more

Source: Utah Lawmakers Literally Think Porn Is A "Public Health Hazard"

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By Tyler Durden

Submitted by Claire Bernish via TheAntiMedia.org,

Utah isn’t exactly known as a hotbed of socially lenient legislation, but Governor Gary R. Herbert plans to chisel in stone the state’s erstwhile Puritanical reputation by signing two pieces of legislation to combat the “sexually toxic environment” ostensibly induced by pornography.

Sexually explicit material — its long and storied history notwithstanding — would be deemed in Utah “a public health hazard leading to a broad spectrum of individual and public health impacts and societal harms,” should Herbert follow through on a promise to sign S.C.R. 9 into law.

This brief but surprisingly comprehensive list of the ills of pornography includes generally accepted theories about the objectification of women, alongside more hotly-contested links between porn and violence. But S.C.R. 9 delves into the arguably unfounded, as well.

According to the Concurrent Resolution on the Public Health Crisis — which proudly declares itself the first legislation of its kind in the U.S. — porn can detrimentally “impact brain development and functioning, contribute to emotional and medical illnesses, shape deviant sexual arousal, and lead to difficulty in forming or maintaining intimate relationships, as well as problematic or harmful sexual behaviors and addiction.”

Though this resolution places no legal strictures on pornography — it isn’t a ban on porn — listing unfounded theoretical generalizations will, of course, present numerous challenges to what many consider a personal freedom frankly deserving privacy. In fact, listed with multiple potentially toxic effects on women and children are a few lines equating porn’s users to hapless, helpless addicts who must need the assistance of a nanny-state government’s intervention to break their habit — which, as anyone familiar with Prohibition will recognize, is a thoroughly useless endeavor.

But this is Utah, and there is an additional proposed legislation in the form of a bill with teeth.

House Bill 155, titled Reporting of Child Pornography, appears to have the commendable aim of ending child pornography — but its method of doing so should seriously concern privacy advocates and small business owners.

If H.B. 155 should become law, computer technicians will essentially become de facto arms of the surveillance state, as they would be required to “immediately” report to law enforcement “any” images of child pornography found on a client’s computer. As the bill’s text states:

“A computer technician who willfully does not report an image” to their employer, an appropriate law enforcement agency or the “Cyber Tip Line at the National Center for Missing and Exploited Children … is guilty of a class B misdemeanor.”

In Utah, that failure to report would be considered on par with “assault, resisting arrest, DUI, reckless driving,” and carrying a concealed weapon, among other offenses. It could land the technician up to a $1,000 fine and/or a six-month jail sentence.

Utah, in other words, essentially stands poised to make not telling on one’s neighbor a crime punishable by time behind bars. Despite the obvious noble intent behind this legislation, setting such a precedent could create an inexhaustible ripple where reporting …read more

Source: Utah Lawmakers Literally Think Porn Is A "Public Health Hazard"

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By Tyler Durden

In mid-January, world-renowned Dennis Gartman proclaimed that crude wouldn't see $44 again “in my lifetime.”

And today… it did!

Perhaps the reason for the surge is that Virtu's algos just wanted Gartman dead?

Has anyone heard from Dennis today?

…read more

Source: RIP Dennis Gartman? Crude Hits $44

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By Tyler Durden

The Fed’s troubling, recurring and perhaps criminal data “leakage” problem has been thoroughly documented over the past years: from Tim Geithner telling bank CEOs what the Fed will do will in advance of it becoming before, to early leaks of Fed Minutes, to breached embargoes, to the release of material non-public information to consultants such as Medley (which the FBI has been supposedly probing for the past year, and which cost Pedra da Costa his WSJ job), to the Fed’s cozy relationship with the WSJ’s Hilsenrath over the years, by now everyone knows that when it comes to giving advance looks of critical information to various preferred parties, the Fed has had no qualms.

It appears that finally changed a week ago, when the Fed’s Inspector General already having had put his foot down on assuring there would be no more future leaks, got infuriated when the WSJ again managed to leak the story about the Fed failing various bank’s “living wills” before it was released. As a Reuters reported, “the Federal Reserve and Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation are investigating how the Wall Street Journal came to report that the two agencies were giving failing grades to some U.S. banks’ “living wills” the day before the regulators officially announced their determinations.

A Fed spokesman, Eric Kollig, confirmed on Wednesday that the U.S. central bank has asked its inspector general, its internal watchdog, to check how the news outlet was able to report on Tuesday that at least half of the eight biggest U.S. banks, including J.P. Morgan Chase would receive “harsh verdicts” on their plans for handling a potential bankruptcy without a federal bailout.

The FDIC’s chairman on Tuesday night asked the agency’s acting inspector general, Fred Gibson, to investigate the leak to the Journal of the results of the living will determinations, spokeswoman Barbara Hagenbaugh said.

The Journal’s story hit Twitter and its home page hours before the regulators officially posted their determinations early on Wednesday morning and as financial markets prepared for banks to release their quarterly earnings.

In short: the Fed’s deepthroat struck again, using his or her preferred outlet, the Wall Street Journal.

So now what? Well, earlier today the Office of the Fed Inspector General finally admitted that there is a problem when in a scathing report titled “The Board Should Strengthen Controls to Safeguard Embargoed Sensitive Economic Information Provided to News Organizations” in which it confirmed that as per its audit, “we discovered issues that warranted the Board’s immediate attention. We issued a restricted early alert memorandum to the Board on July 16, 2015, that outlined these concerns and included recommendations.“

And yet the leaks continue. Furthermore, if so much trivial information is consistently leaked to the press and paid subscription services, one can only imagine what happens behind closed doors between (bribed?) Fed staffers and commercial bankers, who as even Bernanke’s former advisor admitted, are the ones who truly own the Fed.

Here is the release:

The Board Should Strengthen Controls …read more

Source: Fed Inspector General: "We Discovered Issues That Warrant Immediate Attention"

    

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By SRSrocco

By The SRSrocco Report

It looks like something big may happen to the silver market and the Chinese are preparing for it. After China launched it’s new Yuan Gold Fix today, the prices of the precious metals surged. At one point today, silver was up 5%. Silver is now trading at the $17 level, a price not seen in over a year.

Even though gold has taken center stage today due to Chinese rolling out there new Yuan Gold fix, something quite interesting has been taking place in the silver market over the past six months. While Comex silver inventories have been declining from a peak of 184 million oz (Moz) in July 2015 to 154 Moz today, silver stocks at the Shanghai Futures Exchange have been doing the exact opposite. And in a BIG WAY:

Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) silver inventories bottomed on August 20th 2015 at 233 metric tons (mt), or 7.5 Moz. However, silver inventories at the SHFE began to really pick up in 2016 as they surged to 802 mt in Jan from 596 mt in December. This continued at a more rapid pace during the next few months reaching a staggering 1,706 mt today (54.7 Moz).

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Thus, silver inventories at the SHFE have more than tripled in less than six months. Why have the Shanghai Futures Exchange silver inventories jumped this much in such a short time? Do the Chinese know something we don’t?

To give you an idea just how much the SHFE silver inventories have grown, let’s compare it to largest bullion bank Comex silver inventories in the world… JP Morgan. There’s been a lot of talk about the huge buildup of silver on JP Morgan’s Comex inventories. Here a chart of JP Morgan’s Comex silver inventories, courtesy of Nick Laird at Sharelynx.com:

JP Morgan started accumulating silver right at the price of silver topped at $50 in 2011. In April 2012, JP Morgan had about 4 Moz of silver in its inventories. JP Morgan’s silver inventories continued to grow as the price of silver declined to a low of $14. Today, JP Morgan holds 69.4 Moz of silver in its Comex warehouses.

However, the Shanghai Futures Exchange silver inventories surged at a much more rapid rate. If we take a look at the chart below, you will see what I mean:

It took four years for JP Morgan to build their silver inventories from 4 Moz to 69.4 Moz today, whereas the SHFE silver stocks jumped from 7.5 Moz to 54.7 Moz in only eight months. And remember, most of the silver inventory gains at the SHFE came in the past four months.

Part of the reason for the increased …read more

Source: Why Are The Chinese Stockpiling Silver? Big Price Move Coming?

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By Tyler Durden

Existing home sales rose more than expected in March, bouncing back from a dismal February (+5.1% in March from revised -7.3% Feb). Year-over-year, existing home sales rose just 1.5% to a SAAR of 5.33m (vs 5.28m expectations). However, sales dropped at the lowest-end (due to unaffordability and lack of supply) and sales at the highest-end (above $1mm) disppointed, rising at onbly 4.6% YoY due to buyersbeing “spooked by January's stock market correction.”

Home Sales growth has stagnated…

As NAR explains,

Closings came back in force last month as a greater number of buyers – mostly in the Northeast and Midwest – overcame depressed inventory levels and steady price growth to close on a home,” he said.

“Buyer demand remains sturdy in most areas this spring and the mid-priced market is doing quite well. However, sales are softer both at the very low and very high ends of the market because of supply limitations and affordability pressures.”

The median existing-home price for all housing types in March was $222,700, up 5.7 percent from March 2015 ($210,700). March's price increase marks the 49th consecutive month of year-over-year gains.

So both high- and low-end sales disappointed…

“The choppiness in sales activity so far this year is directly related to the unevenness in the rate of new listings coming onto the market to replace what is, for the most part, being sold rather quickly,” adds Yun. “Additionally, a segment of would-be buyers at the upper end of the market appear to have been spooked by January's stock market correction.”

…read more

Source: Low- And High-End Existing Home Sales Disappoint – Supply & Stock Market Blamed

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