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By Tyler Durden

One day after stocks were this close from hitting new all time highs on what have been either ok earnings, if looking at non-GAAP data, or atrocious earnings, based on GAAP, and where any oil headline is now immediately translated as bullish by the oil algos, so far futures are relatively flat, while European stocks were at their moments ago in anticipation of the latest ECB announcement due out in just one hour. However, unlike last month’s “quad-bazooka”, this time the market expects far less from Draghi.

“Having pulled put the monetary bazooka in March, the market is sensibly expecting no further policy measures from the ECB,” said Michael Ingram, a market strategist at BGC Partners in London. “Investors are understandably reticent in making big bets ahead of what is on paper, likely to see policy makers firmly on hold.”

Draghi will come and go, but attention will remain on oil and all other commodities, where the Bloomberg Commodity Index headed for a five-month high, spurred by gains from metals to soy beans, and weighing on government bonds.

Nowhere was the ongoing surge more obvious than in the construction complex, where steel reinforcement bars jumped to a 19-month high in Shanghai, buoyed by an improving Chinese property market, supporting the Australian dollar. As seen on the chart below, both iron ore and steel have gone parabolic this year despite, as reported previously, China’s increase in steel output to record highs. “You’ve got a tight market, you’ve got momentum, and you’ve got this fundamental driver for steel in the government boosting the infrastructure and housing side of things,” Chris Weston, chief market strategist at IG Ltd. in Melbourne told Bloomberg. “The rebar price is really leading the iron ore price at the moment.”

Following yesterday’s latest surge in oil which saw WTI overtake the “Gartman doomsday” level of $44, it has since leveled off while Brent fluctuated near $46 a barrel after data showed U.S. production slipped and Iraq said talks to freeze output may occur next month.

Commodity gains boosted the outlook for inflation, sending German bund yields to a four-week high. Sweden’s krona rose after the Riksbank expanded bond buying less than some investors expected. Metal increases boosted European miners, while most industries on the Stoxx Europe 600 Index declined.

“The rally in commodities is making people a bit more positive,” Robin Bhar, an analyst at Societe Generale SA in London, told Bloomberg. “The base metals are gaining on a view that the industrial cycle is strengthening. There’s broad-based buying in commodities, and that suggests that sentiment is starting to turn. This would have drifted across into mining shares and energy stocks.”

Meanwhile in stocks, Europe’s Stoxx 600 slipped 0.5%, after closing at its highest level since January. Miners in the gauge are heading for six-month high. Carmakers rallied, boosted by a 5.1 percent jump in Volkswagen AG after a person familiar with the matter said it agreed to set aside at least $10 billion to resolve civil claims by …read more

Source: Futures, Crude Unchanged Ahead Of Draghi As Parabolic Move In Steel, Iron Ore Continues

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By Tyler Durden

One commodity trader writes in with some very unique observations. From trader “Peter”

* * *

The insanity has now fully spilled into the commodity markets – a market which I professionally made a transition to after the 2008 crisis from the financial markets, simply because I believed it was a market that would still function according to true fundamentals…

I guess that only lasted so long…

The commodity markets have been prone to excessive speculation for years, but at the end, the thought of specializing in something “tangible” that EVENTUALLY would have to revert back to true supply and demand fundamentals made all the sense in the world. Specially with the true circus that the financial markets have become since 2008…

* * *

From: XXXXXXXXXX
To: “Peter”
Sent: Wednesday, April 20, 2016 1:35 PM
Subject: volume totals today

774K of soybeans traded today and that would be a record by nearly 160K contracts as yesterday set the record at 615K.

Over 88K Jly/Nov traded today and 97K May/Jly traded. Unheard of non-roll numbers.

Meal volume was 270K and we have to think that was a record as well but not 100% on that one.

Lots of ideas around to try and explain the move: from commercial short hedgers blowing out, Chinese pricing, product switching from Argentina to the US.

Not really sure if all or any of this is true but it was quite a wild session

* * *

From: “Peter”
Sent: Wednesday, April 20, 2016 2:41 PM
To: XXXXXXXXXX
Subject: RE: Some staggering volume totals today

Man… I would be VERY surprised if this was due to any of the reasons people are mentioning…

Chinese pricing – I am very positive it does have something to do with it, but for the overnight session – not the daytime.
Commercial hedgers blowing out – very possibly adding to the mess – but no way commercial volume takes us to these levels of ridiculousness in total volume…
Product switching from ARG – yep, because we REALLY need to ration our 400+ mb bean stocks… LOL

This is way past insane, ridiculous, etc…

The “fundamental” reasons people are trying to ping to this are simply a nice “window dressing”…

There is nothing else that can explain this other than you know what?

Here comes my Very-REAL Conspiracy Theory: the stupid FED and other Central Bankers around the world acting in unison to artificially raise inflation so that they can hopefully get out of the F’ing mess they got themselves into with this low/negative rate BS. Call me crazy, and I am not a “conspiracy theorist” – but what is happening has absolutely no “reasonable” explanation. So I have to think outside the box…

The FED and other Central Banks have already destroyed the equity and other macro-financial markets… it is now turn for the commodities markets…

I am serious … I really am… I wish I was just being sarcastic… but pause for a moment and think about what is written above…

What explains …read more

Source: One Commodity Trader Writes: "What Is Happening Has Absolutely No "Reasonable" Explanation"

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By Tyler Durden

Presenting an artist's impression of what your new $20 bill will soon look like.

It's official.

Moments ago Politico reported that the U.S. Treasury will announce that it plans to replace former President Andrew Jackson on the $20 bill with Harriet Tubman, the sources said. There will also be changes to the $5 bill to depict civil rights era leaders including Marian Anderson, Eleanor Roosevelt and Martin Luther King Jr.

Not every dead president is being scraped however: treasury Secretary Jack Lew on Wednesday will announce a decision to keep Alexander Hamilton on the front of the $10 bill and put leaders of the movement to give women the right to vote on the back of the bill.

Lew's decision comes after he announced last summer that he was considering replacing Hamilton on the $10 bill with a woman. The announcement drew swift rebukes from fans of Hamilton, who helped create the Treasury Department and the modern American financial system. Critics immediately suggested Hamilton take Jackson off the $20 bill given the former president's role in moving native Americans off their land.

Jackson may remain on the $20 bill in some capacity, but will clearly be demoted.

Lew told POLITICO last July that Treasury was exploring ways to respond to critics. “There are a number of options of how we can resolve this,” Lew said. “We’re not taking Alexander Hamilton off our currency.”

* * *

Here is the official statement from the US Treasury:

Treasury Secretary Lew Announces Front of New $20 to Feature Harriet Tubman, Lays Out Plans for New $20, $10 and $5

4/20/2016 ?

WASHINGTON – In a letter to the American people, Treasury Secretary Jacob J. Lew today announced plans for the new $20, $10 and $5 notes, with the portrait of Harriet Tubman to be featured on the front of the new $20.

Secretary Lew also announced plans for the reverse of the new $10 to feature an image of the historic march for suffrage that ended on the steps of the Treasury Department and honor the leaders of the suffrage movement—Lucretia Mott, Sojourner Truth, Susan B. Anthony, Elizabeth Cady Stanton, and Alice Paul. The front of the new $10 note will maintain the portrait of Alexander Hamilton.

Finally, he announced plans for the reverse of the new $5 to honor events at the Lincoln Memorial that helped to shape our history and our democracy and prominent individuals involved in those events, including Marian Anderson, Eleanor Roosevelt and Martin Luther King Jr.

The reverse of the new $20 will feature images of the White House and President Andrew Jackson.

In his letter, Secretary Lew noted that the Bureau of Engraving and Printing will work closely with the Federal Reserve to accelerate work on the new $20 and $5 notes, with the goal that all three new notes go into circulation as quickly as possible, consistent with security requirements.

Here is Jacob Lew's “explanatory” letter:

An Open Letter from Secretary Lew:

When I announced last June that a newly …read more

Source: Treasury Removes Jackson From $20 Bill, Will Replace Him With Harriet Tubman

    

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By Michael Snyder

If you had to make a sudden visit to the emergency room, would you have enough money to pay for it without selling something or borrowing the funds from somewhere?  Most Americans may not realize this, but this is something that the Federal Reserve has actually been tracking for several years now.  And according to the Fed, an astounding 47 percent of all Americans could not come up with $400 to pay for an emergency room visit without borrowing it or selling something.  Various surveys that I have talked about in the past have found that more than 60 percent of all Americans are living to paycheck to paycheck, but I didn’t realize that things were quite this bad for about half the country.  If you can’t even come up with $400 for an unexpected emergency room visit, then you are just surviving from month to month by the skin of your teeth.  Unfortunately, about half of us are currently in that situation.

Earlier today someone pointed me toward an excellent article in The Atlantic that discussed this, and I have to admit that The Atlantic is one of the last remaining bastions of old school excellence in journalism that you will find in the mainstream media.  Of course I don’t see eye to eye with them on a lot of things philosophically, but there are some really hard working journalists over there.

The article where I found the 47 percent figure comes from The Atlantic, and it is entitled “The Secret Shame of Middle-Class Americans“.  It was authored by Neal Gabler, and he says that he can identify with the 47 percent of Americans that don’t have $400 for an unexpected emergency room visit because he is one of them…

I know what it is like to have to juggle creditors to make it through a week. I know what it is like to have to swallow my pride and constantly dun people to pay me so that I can pay others. I know what it is like to have liens slapped on me and to have my bank account levied by creditors. I know what it is like to be down to my last $5—literally—while I wait for a paycheck to arrive, and I know what it is like to subsist for days on a diet of eggs. I know what it is like to dread going to the mailbox, because there will always be new bills to pay but seldom a check with which to pay them. I know what it is like to have to tell my daughter that I didn’t know if I would be able to pay for her wedding; it all depended on whether something good happened. And I know what it is like to have to borrow money from my adult daughters because my wife and I ran out of heating oil.

To me, this is yet more evidence that the middle class in America is dying.

Last year, it was reported that middle …read more

Source: 47 Percent Of Americans Cannot Even Come Up With $400 To Cover An Emergency Room Visit

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By Tyler Durden

China's credit growth in March (and $1 trillion surge in total social financing in Q1) is a “warning sign” according to billionaire George Soros, “because it shows how much work is needed to stop the slowdown.” Speaking at an event in new York this evening, Soros commented on “troubling developments” in China, the anti-corruption drive's impact on capital outflows and the real-estate bubble “feeding on itself.” His conclusion, rather ominously, was that despite all the naysayers and fiction-peddlers, China “resembles US in 2007-8,” before credit markets seized up and spurred a global recession.

As Bloomberg reports, Billionaire investor George Soros said China’s debt-fueled economy resembles the U.S. in 2007-08, before credit markets seized up and spurred a global recession.

China’s March credit growth figures should be viewed as a warning sign, Soros said at an Asia Society event in New York on Wednesday. The broadest measure of new credit in the world’s second-biggest economy was 2.34 trillion yuan ($362 billion) last month, far exceeding the median forecast of 1.4 trillion yuan in a Bloomberg survey and signaling the government is prioritizing growth over reining in debt.

[ZH – f one adds up the Total Social Financing injected in the first quarter, one gets a stunning $1 trillion dollars in new credit, or $1,001,000,000,000 to be precise, shoved down China's economic throat. As shown on the chart below, this was an all time high in dollar terms, and puts to rest any naive suggestion that China may be pursuing “debt reform.” Quite the contrary, China has once again resorted to the old “growth” model where GDP is to be saved at any cost, even if it means flooding the economy with record amount of debt.

With China's debt/GDP already estimate at 350%, how much longer can China sustain this stunning debt (and by definition, deposit) growth continue?]

Soros, who built a $24 billion fortune through savvy wagers on markets, has recently been involved in a war of words with the Chinese government. He said at the World Economic Forum in Davos that he’s been betting against Asian currencies because a hard landing in China is “practically unavoidable.” China’s state-run Xinhua news agency rebutted his assertion in an editorial, saying that he has made the same prediction several times in the past.

Soros then went on to note that China’s capital outflow is a growing phenomenon driven by the nation’s anti-corruption campaign, which makes people nervous and spurs them to pull money out, and added that…

China’s decoupling of the yuan from the U.S. dollar can help rebalance the currency.

The linking to a basket of currencies is a “very positive, healthy” development for world.

Finally in an ironic twist for a man who has all too often used the press for his own ends…

China’s lack of a free press is “troubling development”.

Of course one should bear in mind that Soros is among those who are betting heavily on the eventual devaluation of The Yuan against the USD, and as we noted previously, the cracks are …read more

Source: George Soros Warns "China Resembles US In 2008", Hard Landing "Practically Unavoidable"

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By Tyler Durden

Submitted by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.com,

Most people are not avid followers of economic news, and I don’t blame them. Financial analysis is for the most part boring and tedious and you would have to be some kind of crazy to commit a large slice of your life to it.

However, those of us who are that crazy do what we do (and do it independently) because underneath all the data and the charts and the overnight news feeds we see keys to future events. And if we are observant enough, we might even be able to warn people who don’t have the same proclivities but still deserve to know the reality of the world around them.

Most Americans and much of the rest of the planet probably was not aware of the recent oil producer’s meeting in Doha, Qatar this past Sunday, nor would they have cared. A bunch of rich guys in white dresses talking about oil production levels does not exactly spark the imagination. What the masses missed, though, was an event that could affect them deeply and economically for many months to come.

A little background highly summarized…

After the derivatives and credit crisis launched in 2007/2008 the Federal Reserve responded to disastrous levels of deflation with a fiat money printing bonanza. Everyone knows this. The problem was the central bankers never had any intention of actually using all that “cash” to support Main Street or the fundamentals of the economy.

Instead, they used their printing press and digital loan transfers to artificially re-inflate the coffers of banks and major corporations. It was a blood transfusion for vampires, if you will.

Through the use of TARP (Troubled Asset Relief Program), quantitative easing, artificially low interest rates, and probably a host of secret actions we’ll never hear about, a steady stream of capital (or debt, to be more precise) was pumped through corporate conduits. The goal? To keep the U.S. from immediate bankruptcy through treasury bond purchases, to boost bank credit, and to allow companies to institute an unprecedented program of stock buybacks (a method by which a corporation buys back its own shares to reduce the amount on the market, thereby manipulating the value of the remaining shares to higher prices).

As the former head of the Federal Reserve Dallas branch, Richard Fisher admitted in an interview with CNBC:

“What the Fed did — and I was part of that group — is we front-loaded a tremendous market rally, starting in 2009.

It’s sort of what I call the “reverse Whimpy factor” — give me two hamburgers today for one tomorrow.”

Why would the Fed want to engineer a hollow rally in stocks? As I have said in the past, they did this because they know that the average American watches about 15 minutes of television news a day and gauges the health of the economy only on whether the Dow is green or red. From 2009 to 2015, the Fed felt it needed to support markets through fiat and keep the public …read more

Source: Oil Market Hype And Crisis Signal Greater Troubles Ahead

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By Tyler Durden

Authored by Chris Cillizza, originally posted at The Washington Post,

Gone was “Lyin' Ted.” In its place was “Senator Cruz.” Gone was the long-winded speech that went nowhere. In its place was a succinct recitation of states and delegates won. Gone was the two-day vacation as a reward for winning. In its place was an early morning trip to Indiana followed by another planned stop in Maryland.

Donald Trump 2.0 made his official debut Tuesday night following his sweeping victory in New York, a win that looks to net him 90 delegates and reestablishes him as the man to beat in the Republican presidential race.

That version of Trump was markedly more disciplined, gentler and more appealing than the version of Trump we've seen for much of the last year. And, that fact should scare the hell out of establishment Republicans who believed that their efforts to keep Trump from the 1,237 delegates he needs to formally capture the GOP nomination was beginning to catch on.

Why? Because it's clear, at least for now, that Trump is listening to his new political advisers — chief among them convention manager Paul Manafort and national field director Rick Wiley. Trump's change in tone on Tuesday night was absolutely unmistakeable to anyone who has paid even passing attention to his campaign to date. The man who had built his frontrunning campaign on a willingness to always and without fail take the race to its lowest common denominator — was suddenly full of respect for the men he beat and full of facts about the state of the race.

“We have won millions of more votes than Senator Cruz, millions and millions of more votes than Governor Kasich,” Trump said. “We've won, and now especially after tonight, close to 300 delegates more than Senator Cruz.”

The change in tone is absolutely necessary if Trump wants to not only find a way to 1,237 delegates but also unite the party behind him in any meaningful way heading into the general election campaign this fall. The truth is that Trump has to play an outsider and an insider game from here on out. The outsider game is to keep winning primaries by convincing margins like he did in New York. The insider game is to show unbound delegates as well as party leaders and influencers that he can be magnanimous, that he can be a uniting force within the party.

Calling Cruz “Lyin' Ted” is a great laugh line at a Trump rally but accusing the Texas senator of holding up the Bible and then putting it down and lying isn't exactly the sort of rhetoric you need or want from a candidate who needs to bring the party together behind a common enemy in Hillary Clinton. It's the difference between being voted “class clown” and being elected student body president. The former delights in taking the low road for cheap laughs. (I speak from experience.) The latter takes the high road even if it's against his or her own …read more

Source: Meet Trump 2.0: "Be Afraid, Anti-Trump Forces, Be Very Afraid"

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By Tyler Durden

Authored by Chris Cillizza, originally posted at The Washington Post,

Gone was “Lyin' Ted.” In its place was “Senator Cruz.” Gone was the long-winded speech that went nowhere. In its place was a succinct recitation of states and delegates won. Gone was the two-day vacation as a reward for winning. In its place was an early morning trip to Indiana followed by another planned stop in Maryland.

Donald Trump 2.0 made his official debut Tuesday night following his sweeping victory in New York, a win that looks to net him 90 delegates and reestablishes him as the man to beat in the Republican presidential race.

That version of Trump was markedly more disciplined, gentler and more appealing than the version of Trump we've seen for much of the last year. And, that fact should scare the hell out of establishment Republicans who believed that their efforts to keep Trump from the 1,237 delegates he needs to formally capture the GOP nomination was beginning to catch on.

Why? Because it's clear, at least for now, that Trump is listening to his new political advisers — chief among them convention manager Paul Manafort and national field director Rick Wiley. Trump's change in tone on Tuesday night was absolutely unmistakeable to anyone who has paid even passing attention to his campaign to date. The man who had built his frontrunning campaign on a willingness to always and without fail take the race to its lowest common denominator — was suddenly full of respect for the men he beat and full of facts about the state of the race.

“We have won millions of more votes than Senator Cruz, millions and millions of more votes than Governor Kasich,” Trump said. “We've won, and now especially after tonight, close to 300 delegates more than Senator Cruz.”

The change in tone is absolutely necessary if Trump wants to not only find a way to 1,237 delegates but also unite the party behind him in any meaningful way heading into the general election campaign this fall. The truth is that Trump has to play an outsider and an insider game from here on out. The outsider game is to keep winning primaries by convincing margins like he did in New York. The insider game is to show unbound delegates as well as party leaders and influencers that he can be magnanimous, that he can be a uniting force within the party.

Calling Cruz “Lyin' Ted” is a great laugh line at a Trump rally but accusing the Texas senator of holding up the Bible and then putting it down and lying isn't exactly the sort of rhetoric you need or want from a candidate who needs to bring the party together behind a common enemy in Hillary Clinton. It's the difference between being voted “class clown” and being elected student body president. The former delights in taking the low road for cheap laughs. (I speak from experience.) The latter takes the high road even if it's against his or her own …read more

Source: Meet Trump 2.0: "Be Afraid, Anti-Trump Forces, Be Very Afraid"

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By Tyler Durden

Ron Paul offers his detailed assessment of the 2016 presidential campaign this far. This is no candidate play-by-play, but a look at the strong undercurrents in society that are driving the debate. The people are very angry. But why? And what should be done about it?

Full Speech (via RonPaulLibertyReport.com), [yes it's long but grab a glass of wine – or bottle of scotch – and comprehend what America faces]

THE MIDDLE-CLASS RAGE, FEAR AND ANGER

The middle class, which as defined by politicians now includes almost everyone, is angry, fearful, and filled with rage. When politicians address this group it’s frequently defined as “populism,” of which there are many varieties. Whether liberals, conservatives, libertarians, socialists, or authoritarians, when the people become restless and angry, demanding change, the politicians pay attention. This reflects a need to appeal to the masses, and a populist message is well received. But there is never real agreement on the analysis and suggested solutions to the problems. Instead, scapegoats are easily found. Economic understanding is not of high priority, and demagoguery is a useful tool for politically mobilizing the “victims.” Since there are real reasons given for the conditions that exist, competition arises among those who want to take charge of the crisis and benefit politically. This only increases the anxiety and anger of the people, who see themselves as victims of an unfair system.

Until the political economic crisis became readily apparent, most politicians were unaware of the rapidly increasing distortions in wealth distribution. The dangers are conveniently ignored because most people live for the short term. If one is doing well financially, even though the system is financed with the whole country living beyond its means, worrying about preparing for a rainy day seems like wasted energy. However the payment is now coming due, and because few plan or understand it, any threat to benefits – both earned and unearned – creates great anxiety. Fear of being squeezed out of a share of the benefits that come with government intervention becomes the driving force for the whole country. The one group that seems the least worried about current conditions is the “one percent” who are financially secure by living off the special interest financial system. This does not include the wealthy who are financially rewarded for providing products and services that consumers choose to buy.

But even the one percent who benefit from government programs and the monetary system are concerned that the current uprising will interfere with their privileged position.

The size, determination, and anger of the current populist uprising is signaling that huge changes are coming both politically and economically. This generates a competitive blame-game when politicians get involved and try to benefit from the chaos. Republicans blame the Democrats and the Democrats blame the Republicans for the problems. It’s never an issue of philosophy but rather partisanship, personalities, or simply blaming poor management. False perceptions are commonplace as a consequence of government-controlled education that steers people away from the sad realities of economic planning …read more

Source: The 2016 "Rage, Fear, & Anger" Election: Ron Paul’s Deep Dive Into The Real Issues

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By Tyler Durden

With the topic of Saudi Arabia’s involvement in the Sept 11 attack on everyone’s lips, if certainly not those of president Obama who is currently in Riyadh where he is meeting with members of Saudi royalty in what may be his last trip to the Saudi nation as US president, many have been clamoring for the information in the suddenly notorious “28-pages” (following the recent 60 Minutes episode) to be released to the public so the US population can finally relegate all those “conspiracy theories” surrounding the real perpetrator behind the Sept 11 terrorist attack to the “conspiracy fact” pile.

It won’t have to wait that long.

As The Times writes today, new evidence has come to light of a definitive link between Saudi Arabian officials and the 9/11 terrorist attacks “further raising tensions as President Obama travels to the kingdom.”

According to the report, Ghassan Al-Sharbi, a Saudi who became an al-Qa’ida bomb maker, is believed to have taken flying lessons with some of the 9/11 hijackers in Arizona but did not take part in the attacks on New York and the Pentagon that killed 3,000 people in 2001.

He was captured in Pakistan in 2002 and has since been held at Guantanamo Bay. According to a US memo, known as document 17, written in 2003 and quietly declassified last year, the FBI learnt that he had buried a cache of papers shortly before he was captured.

Think of “Document 17” as a mini version of the “28 pages” whose content has yet to be revealed. The document was written by two US investigators examining the possible roles of foreign governments in the attacks.

One detail leapt out at the FBI agents from the papers that Sharbi had tried to hide: his US flight certificate was in an envelope from the Saudi embassy in Washington.

A car pulls into the Saudi Arabian embassy in Washington, AP Photo

And there is your smoking gun, which has been fully available to the US government for the pat 13 years. It should have also been available to the American public.

Understandably, Brian McGlinchey, the activist who uncovered document 17, asked a simple question: “The envelope points to the fundamental question hanging over us today: to what extent was the 9/11 plot facilitated by individuals at the highest levels of the Saudi government?”

Here is the problem. As the Times puts it, “president Obama is expected to meet on Wednesday with King Salman, whose kingdom is under pressure from low oil prices, an emboldened Iran and Washington’s tougher stance. The Saudi government threatened last week to dump $750 billion in US Treasury securities and other American assets if congress passes a bill that would clear a path for the families of 9/11 victims to file lawsuits against the kingdom.”

In other words, Obama will not ask any questions of King Salman, let alone the “fundamental” one.

So perhaps it is time to get a president who will ask the question: Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders, the …read more

Source: The Smoking Gun: "Document 17" Links Saudi Embassy In Washington To Sept 11

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