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Paul Craig Roberts: How The American Neocons Destroyed Mankind’s Hopes For Peace

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By Tyler Durden

Authored by Paul Craig Roberts,

When Ronald Reagan turned his back on the neoconservatives, fired them, and had some of them prosecuted, his administration was free of their evil influence, and President Reagan negotiated the end of the Cold War with Soviet President Gorbachev. The military/security complex, the CIA, and the neocons were very much against ending the Cold War as their budgets, power, and ideology were threatened by the prospect of peace between the two nuclear superpowers.

I know about this, because I was part of it. I helped Reagan create the economic base for bringing the threat of a new arms race to a failing Soviet economy in order to pressure the Soviets into agreement to end the Cold War, and I was appointed to a secret presidential committee with subpeona power over the CIA. The secret committee was authorized by President Reagan to evaluate the CIA’s claim that the Soviets would prevail in an arms race. The secret committee concluded that this was the CIA’s way of perpetuting the Cold War and the CIA’s importance.

The George H. W. Bush administration and its Secretary of State James Baker kept Reagan’s promises to Gorbachev and achieved the reunification of Germany with promises that NATO would not move one inch to the East.

The corrupt Clintons, for whom the accumulation of riches seems to be their main purpose in life, violated the assurances given by the United States that had ended the Cold War. The two puppet presidents – George W. Bush and Obama – who followed the Clintons lost control of the US government to the neocons, who promptly restarted the Cold War, believing in their hubris and arrogance that History has chosen the US to exercise hegemony over the world.

Thus was mankind’s chance for peace lost along with America’s leadership of the world. Under neocon influence, the United States government threw away its soft power and its ability to lead the world into a harmonious existance over which American influence would have prevailed.

Instead the neocons threatened the world with coercion and violence, attacking eight countries and fomenting “color revolutions” in former Soviet republics.

The consequence of this crazed insanity was to create an economic and military strategic alliance between Russia and China. Without the neocons’ arrogant policy, this alliance would not exist. It was a decade ago that I began writing about the strategic alliance between Russia and China that is a response to the neocon claim of US world hegemony.

The strategic alliance between Russia and China is militarily and economically too strong for Washington. China controls the production of the products of many of America’s leading corporations, such as Apple. China has the largest foreign exchange reserves in the world. China can, if the government wishes, cause a massive increase in the American money supply by dumping its trillions of dollars of US financial assets.

To prevent a collapse of US Treasury prices, the Federal Reserve would have to create trillions of new dollars in order …read more

Source: Paul Craig Roberts: How The American Neocons Destroyed Mankind’s Hopes For Peace

    

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Bernie Sanders supports student fossil fuel sit-in

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Bernie Sanders tweeted his support for students at Columbia University and NYU who are demanding that their universities dump fossil fuel investments. …read more

Source: Bernie Sanders supports student fossil fuel sit-in

    

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CNN projects Trump will win New York

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…read more

Source: CNN projects Trump will win New York

    

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China Retaliates In Trade Wars – Increases Steel Output To Record High

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By Tyler Durden

A funny thing happened when US slapped a major tariff on China's steel exports… prices exploded higher. But the almost 50% surge in steel prices since mid-December back to 15-month highs have left traders equally split on what happens next. Will record production levels exaggerate a global glut amid tumbling exports and rising tariffs, or will China's trillion-dollar surge in credit fuel yet more so-called “iron rooster” projects driving domestic demand even higher. For now, it appears the former is more likely as US Trade reps suggested further protectionism looms.

Since Dec 23rd 2015 when the US imposed a 256% tariff on Chinese steel imports, composite steel prices have soared almost 50% even as exports have slipped…

Faced with collapsing exports and a lack of domestic demand (and surging inventories) along with zombie steel mills on the verge of bankruptcy and desperately in need of cash flow or else China's whole red ponzi would fail, the central planners unleashed a trillion dollars of new credit in Q1…

Which enabled, among other things, the so-called “iron rooster”-stimulus program:

Mills now have their order books filled till July or onward,” said Li Qibao, an analyst at Changjiang Futures Co. in Wuhan, who predicts that prices will go on rising.

There are “unmistakable signs of recovery in demand, with the help of an ‘iron rooster’-style construction boom that has come back at full speed,” Li said, referring to a nickname for China’s previous growth model as the Chinese pronunciation of the phrase translates as ‘railroad, highway, infrastructure.’

As Bloomberg reports,

The unexpected rebound in China’s steel market this year is set to keep rolling because record output by mills has so far failed to replenish inventories as the government cranks up stimulus to boost growth.

Stockpiles of steel reinforcement bar, used in construction, sank for a sixth week, contracting 6.8 percent in the period to April 15 in the biggest drop since October 2014, according to Shanghai Steelhome Information Technology Co. Rebar futures in Shanghai rallied to the highest in a year on Tuesday, and are up 39 percent in 2016. Spot prices have risen 46 percent.

The rally in 2016 follows five straight years of declines and has been a welcome respite for the world’s largest steel industry, which has been grappling with overcapacity, losses and forecasts for a long-term drop in the nation’s demand. In March, mills in China churned out more metal than any month on record as the economy stabilized, with a surge in new credit spurring a property sector rebound. The surprise rally in the biggest steel producer has also helped to lift global iron ore prices.

And that explains the surge in price (domestic demand) despite global weakness and inventory glut…

However, there is a dark side to all this credit-fueled malinvestment...as Reuters reports, despite pressure to curb steel output and relieve a global glut, China said on Tuesday its production actually hit a record high last month as rising …read more

Source: China Retaliates In Trade Wars – Increases Steel Output To Record High

    

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Russian Stocks Soar After Biggest Outflow In 11 Months

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By Tyler Durden

The Doha-disappointment appears to have sparked some risk-aversion as yesterday saw Russia's biggest exchange-traded fund – Market Vectors Russia ETF – suffer its largest outflows since May 2015.

However, in a perfect example of ill-timed moves, Russian stocks have soared over 6% from the knee-jerk lows pushing back up towards cycle highs.

Of course, this selling pressure makes some sense given that oil and natural gas account for about a third of Russia’s budget revenue and almost 60 percent of its exports. But of course, a disappointing Doha appears to have sparked panic-buying around the world in everything.

…read more

Source: Russian Stocks Soar After Biggest Outflow In 11 Months

    

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Editor fired after Shaun King accused of plagiarism

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New York Daily News columnist Shaun King was accused of plagiarism in several stories, but the newspaper defended him and fired an editor who handled his copy. …read more

Source: Editor fired after Shaun King accused of plagiarism

    

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Has The ECB’s QE Been A Failure? This Is What Europe’s Banks Think

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By Tyler Durden

As the WSJ wryly put it this morning, “Officials at the European Central Bank surely celebrated Tuesday’s survey showing the last barrage of asset purchases and negative rates had a positive effect on bank lending to households and businesses.”

Alas, as the WSJ also adds, “policy makers may want to hold off uncorking the champagne just yet. In fact, most banks answering the survey said the ECB’s policies had no impact at all.”

Indeed, while the 54 page presentation is overflowing with the traditional worthless trivia and self-effusive praise – it is an ECB document after all – the only data that did matter was on Table A3 on page 46 which asked bank respondents the following qeustion: “Over the past six months, has your bank used the additional liquidity arising from the ECB’s asset purchases for granting loans to corporations, for housing loans or for consumer loans?”

In other words, the ECB asked Europe’s banks whether QE has boosted lending.

Here are the answers:

  • The number of respondents who answered “considerably”? Zero.
  • The number of respondents who answered “basically not”? Between 80% and 90%

Below is the charted response for the gloomiest yet assessment the ECB’s QE policy.

And here is the same question, however looking at the future – if anywhere, banks should at least be able to stretch their optimism here: “Over the next six months, has your bank used the additional liquidity arising from the ECB’s asset purchases for granting loans to corporations, for housing loans or for consumer loans?”

Alas no.

There is a comparable survey looking at the impact of the ECB’s negative rates. The answers were even uglier.

Bottom line: the ECB’s attempt to boost lending via QE and NIRP has been an absolute disaster… at least according to Europe’s own banks.

Source: ECB

…read more

Source: Has The ECB’s QE Been A Failure? This Is What Europe’s Banks Think

    

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Intel to cut 12,000 jobs

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Intel announced 12,000 job cuts on Tuesday as it shifts its business away from the PC business to the cloud and mobile.

…read more

Source: Intel to cut 12,000 jobs

    

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Largest U.S. Health Insurer Is Done With Obamacare: UnitedHealth To Exit Most State Exchanges

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By Tyler Durden

As conclusion to our article yesterday reporting on the largest U.S. health insurer’s accelerating exodus from various Obamacare markets (it had already announced it was out of Georgie, Arkansas, Michigan and Oklahoma) we said that UnitedHealth “will likely announce more defections in the coming days.”

We didn’t have long to wait, and moments ago Bloomberg reported that in addition to the four states listed above, UnitedHealth has just announced it is departing the following “Affordable” Care Act state exchanges: Connecticut, North Carolina; Nebraska, Pennsylvania and Texas.

That, too, however, is just a preview of what’s to come, because earlier today UnitedHealth made its divorce with Obamacare complete when it announed plans to exit most of the Affordable Care Act state exchanges where it currently operates by 2017.

During a conference call with analysts Tuesday, CEO Stephen Hemsley noted that “next year we will remain in only a handful of states.

As CNN reports, CEO Stephen Hemsley explained that UnitedHealth will leave most states by 2017 because the markets for these exchanges are relatively small and also have higher risks for the company over the short-term. As such, he said UnitedHealth (UNH) could not serve these exchanges on an “effective and sustained basis.”

Said otherwise, the company is losing money by participating in Obamacare.

UnitedHealth’s president and chief financial officer David Wichmann added that the company served 795,000 people on public exchanges as of the end of the first quarter. It expects to have only 650,000 public exchange members by December.

As CNN politely notes, “this could be a blow to President Obama and his signature law to overhaul the nation’s healthcare system.”

More importantly, it could be a blow to taxpayers because as we observed yesterday, according to estimates from the Kaiser Family Foundation, the exodus will almost surely mean higher insurance premiums in several states – most notably Alabama, Arizona, Iowa, Nebraska and North Carolina. It will also mean even higher subsidies.

Still, some remain optimistic: Cynthia Cox, associate director of health reform and private insurance at Kaiser, said this won’t be the death of Obamacare. She noted that UnitedHealth has been more cautious about entering the ACA markets than its competitors. Hemsley had warned previously that claims tied to the Obamacare exchanges were costlier than expected. And other insurers that focus on Medicaid and Medicare pans, such as Centene (CNC), are more prominent players in the state exchanges.

Perhaps it’s not the end for Obamacare, but it means even greater sticker shock for Americans once they get their premiums for 2017. Recall that as a result of the merger between Aetna and Humana, and that of Cigna and Anthem, the industry is about to shrink from five players to only three.

This means much higher premiums.

It also means that mandatory Obamacare tax payments will keep “healthcare” spending as the biggest contributor to US GDP for years to come.

Iran Is Ready To Flood The World With Oil… It Just Has No Ships To Deliver It

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By Tyler Durden

Late last week, just ahead of the Doha meeting, we showed that Iran’s existing oil tanker armada which until recently had been on anchor next to the Iranian coast and which according to Windward data was storing as much as 50 million barrels offshore…

… had finally started to move.

The reason, as Bloomberg reported, was that tankers carrying about 28.8 million barrels of crude, or more than 2 million a day, left the Persian Gulf country’s ports in the first 14 days of April. That compares with a rate of about 1.45 million barrels a day in March. As a result, Iran’s crude shipments have soared by more than 600,000 barrels a day this month, and offsetting the entire production decline by US producers with just half a month’s incremental production.

However, now that the shipping armada has sailed to its various (most Asian) destinations, it may be difficult to repeat this in the near term.

According to Reuters, Iran is struggling to increase oil exports because many of its tankers are tied up storing crude, some are not seaworthy, and foreign shipowners are clearly reluctant to carry its cargoes.

The math: Iran has 55-60 oil tankers in its fleet, a senior Iranian government official told Reuters. He declined to say how many were being used to store unsold cargoes, but industry sources said 25-27 tankers were parked in sea lanes close to terminals including Assaluyeh and Kharg Island for this purpose.

Asked how many tankers were not seaworthy and needed to go to dry docks for refits to meet international shipping standards, the senior official said: “Around 20 large tankers … need to be modernised.” A further 11 Iranian tankers from the fleet were carrying oil to Asian buyers on Tuesday, according to Reuters shipping data and a source who tracks tanker movements. That was broadly in line with the number consistently committed to Asian runs since sanctions were lifted in January, putting more strain on the remaining available fleet.

So as increasingly more of Iran’s tanker fleet is currently utilized or is otherwise out of commission, Iran desperately needs foreign ships to execute its plans for a big export push to Europe and elsewhere and meet its target of reaching pre-sanctions sales levels this year.

There is just one problem: nobody wants to give their spare tanker capacity to Iran.

According to Reuters ship owners, who are not short of business in a booming tanker market, are unwilling to take Iranian cargoes.

One stumbling block is residual U.S. restrictions on Tehran which are still in place and prohibit any trade in dollars or the involvement of U.S. firms including banks – a major hurdle for the oil and tanker trades, which are priced in dollars.

As a result only eight foreign tankers, carrying a total of around 8 million barrels of oil, have shipped Iranian crude to European destinations since sanctions were lifted in January, according to data from the tanker-tracking source and ship brokers. …read more

Source: Iran Is Ready To Flood The World With Oil… It Just Has No Ships To Deliver It

    

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