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By Tyler Durden

Submitted by Vanda Research Group

Hippocrates Sleve

In his most recent Sunday note entitled “The Stock Market Doctor“, Morgan Stanley equity strategist Adam Parker writes that:

‘The main questions investors ask us today seem to be about the exterior appearance of the market and not fundamentals. “What is this price action telling you?” “What are other investors asking you about?” “How are other people positioned?” Or, “what’s the current sentiment?” ‘

Parker goes on to bemoan this recent hyper-focus on positioning and sentiment, arguing that clients should instead be asking more “fundamental” questions like:

‘Which areas of the market may show accelerating growth in cash flows? What is the future value of all cash flows discounted back to the present? How have your assumptions about growth or rates changed recently?

With all due respect to our former employer, we couldn’t disagree more. Positioning, sentiment and all of those other behavioral nuances that the sellside historically doesn’t like to dirty their hands with are hugely important to returns, especially in the short-to-medium term.

That isn’t just the case today. That’s been true for a long, long time; and certainly since the crisis. If share prices are a function of a fundamental factor (earnings, cash flows, etc) multiplied by a behavioral one (price multiples), then the latter is significantly more important for returns over a twelve month horizon. The three charts below graph the YoY change in share prices, P/E multiples and consensus EPS estimates for the three largest sectors in the S&P – tech, financials and healthcare. If the goal is to forecast the orange line, we’d much rather spend our time trying to predict the purple line (P/E) rather than the blue one (earnings).

World philosophies aside, investors are asking about positioning and sentiment because being a contrarian matters even more in an environment that lacks clear market directionality or momentum (like the one we’re in now).

In that respect, here’s our attempt at answering the questions that Morgan Stanley won’t:

• “What is this price action telling you?” That it’s all about (a dovish) Yellen. We can’t stress enough how unusual it is for equities to rally as strongly as they have for the past two months whilst the cyclical/defensive ratio remains flat (chart below). Risk is being propelled almost exclusively by a dovish Fed, and it’s not until cyclicals begin outperforming that we’d grow more confident about the underpinnings of this current rally.

• “What are other investors asking you about?” When do base effects start kicking in for inflation this year and how important are they (Sept/Oct, and minimal influence). When is it safe to get back into China (now). What are your favorite idiosyncratic trades (long DAX vs FTSE vol trades, long NKY / short SPX vol trades). What’s your favorite way to play an upside breakout (short Dec16 Fed funds futures).
• “How are other people positioned?” Long duration and anything that looks like safe yield, defensive equities for …read more

  Source: Why Sentiment, Positioning And Price Action Is All The Matters In This Market

      

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Michael Strahan is leaving “Live with Kelly and Michael” and joining the cast of “Good Morning America” full-time, ABC said Tuesday. …read more

Source: Michael Strahan joining ‘GMA’ full-time

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By Tyler Durden

With feces-infested waterways, Zika-carrying mosquitoes, a collapsing economy, and political corruption that runs from top to bottom, Brazil is in trouble. But just a few short weeks ahead of The Olympics, the people are revolting as Sao Paulo state governor Geraldo Alckmin warns “Rio de Janeiro is close to social collapse” after state payments to retirees have not been made. Of course, none of this matters as long as Ibovespa is soaring and Real is strengthening…

• *RIO DE JANEIRO STATE CHIEF OF STAFF LEONARDO ESPINDOLA SPEAKS
• *ESPINDOLA:RIO DE JANEIRO HASN’T MADE MARCH PAYMENTS TO RETIREES

To which Governor Alckmin adds…

• *BRAZIL’S RIO DE JANEIRO ‘CLOSE TO SOCIAL COLLAPSE’: OFFICIAL
• *BRAZIL’S RIO DE JANEIRO STATE OWES BRL52B: OFFICIAL
• *BRAZI’S SAO PAULO STATE OWES BRL224B: GOVERNOR ALCKMIN

Which does not look like being solved any time soon:

• *BARBOSA: BRAZIL FED. GOVT HAS TROUBLE MEETING FISCAL GOAL
• *BARBOSA: FED. GOVT. IS AWARE, CONCERNED ABOUT STATE SITUATION

Which seems like exactly what you want to hear to buy the F**king dip in Ibovespa…

Still on the bright side…

…read more

Source: As Olympics Looms, Officials Warn Rio Is "Close To Social Collapse"

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By Tyler Durden

Following the disappointment of Doha, US equities have soared off the dip with The Dow topping the all-important 18,000 level and now S&P back above 2,100…

All the while, earnings are collapsing.

Looks fine to us, right? What could go wrong?

…read more

Source: S&P 500 Tops 2,100 – What Happens Next?

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Netflix prices are going up, but the longer you have been a Netflix subscriber, the longer you’ll have until your prices get hiked.

…read more

Source: Netflix prices are going up: when you’ll pay more

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Netflix prices are going up, but the longer you have been a Netflix subscriber, the longer you’ll have until your prices get hiked.

…read more

Source: Netflix prices are going up: when you’ll pay more

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By Tyler Durden

It appears a combination of Rosengren's comments (panic-jawboning about rates raises policy error fears), positioning unwinds (commercial hedgers covering), and gold/silver ratio compression has sparked a surge in both silver (10-month highs) and gold (back above 50dma) overnight.

The overnight spike…

Smashing Silver to 10-month highs..

UBS analyst Joni Teves tells The Financial Times:

“It's a combination of silver getting a bit of attention over the past week with the big move in the gold/silver ratio and quite a few market participants looking at silver in and its relative performance to gold and thinking it might be time for a bit of catch up.”

As the ratio drops to 5-month lows…

Even as Gold lifts back above its 50dma…

…read more

Source: Silver Soars To 10-Month Highs, Gold-Ratio Continues To Plunge

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A generous community helped Akbar Hossain to realize his American Dream. Now Akbar is studying law and hopes to help immigrants from low-income communities, much like his own family.

…read more

Source: How one young immigrant achieved the American Dream

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By Sprott Money

The Fed’s “Four Horsemen” Unite

Written by Jeff Nielson (CLICK FOR ORIGINAL)

If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless on the continent their Fathers conquered…I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies…The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people, to whom it properly belongs.

– Thomas Jefferson, 1802

A private (central) bank does control the issue of U.S. currency: the Federal Reserve, as is the case with most of the nations of the world. These bankers do conspire to “first inflate” and “then deflate.” This is what regular readers know as our bubble-and-crash cycles , which now seem to occur in more-or-less fixed eight-year intervals.

The people are relentlessly being deprived of all property. The Middle Class is nearly extinct , having devolved into the Working Poor. Our children are literally “waking up homeless,” with millions of Homeless People now struggling to survive across North America.

Should we regard Thomas Jefferson as a prophet, or simply as a sober individual engaging in logical extrapolation? History strongly suggests the latter interpretation, via a “warning” of an entirely different nature.

Give me control of a nation’s money, and I care not who makes its laws.

– Mayer Amschel Rothschild (1744 – 1812)

That is what the Rothschild patriarch boasted, but this is not what he really meant. Give me control of a nation’s money, and I make its laws. Control the purse strings of any government and you control the government.

Mayer Rothschild was a contemporary of Thomas Jefferson, and Jefferson was a scholar. He knew what this oligarch meant with his boast. He then took that boast and expanded it into the true horror that it represented.

Central banks exist to steal. Indeed, they have a literal “license to steal” via the power of the printing press. In this area, too, we have a famous source to offer us guidance.

In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation.

– Alan Greenspan , 1966

Central banks create inflation; it is virtually their sole function. The central bankers constantly whine that“inflation is too low,” i.e., they aren’t confiscating our savings (stealing our wealth) as fast as they would like. But first they instruct our subservient governments to lie about the rate of inflation so that the People are unaware of the rate at which their wealth is being stolen.

Central bankers steal out of the pockets of the people and funnel that stolen wealth into the vaults of the oligarchs who control these presses – oligarchs like the Rothschilds . In the approximate 100 years since the Federal Reserve was entrusted with managing and “protecting” the U.S. dollar, it has lost roughly …read more

Source: The Fed’s “Four Horsemen” Unite

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By Tyler Durden

As a result of incorporating the Schengen Agreement (initially signed in 1985 between just five countries) into the Treaty of Amsterdam (signed in 1997, effective in 1999), Europeans and European businesses enjoy border-less travel in most countries that are part of the European Union.

Or, at least they did.

In an effort to slow Syrian, Afghan, and Iraqi migrants traveling to Europe, many countries are now implementing border controls, a decision that could prove to have significant negative consequences for Europe's economy.

As Bloomberg notes, the open border economy supports more than 400 million people, with 24 million business trips, and 57 million cross-border freight transfers happening every single year. Research by the Bertelsmann Foundation asserts that a permanent return to border controls could cost $530 billion of GDP growth from the European economy over the next decade.

The complexity introduced by creating a bottleneck at the border is what drives the above number. People have gotten used to living in one country and commuting to another for work, and companies have built their business models around having multiple plants in different countries, and using just-in-time supply chain arrangements that require cross border travel on a daily basis. Delays caused by the new checkpoints and stricter travel requirements have real costs for businesses and individuals alike.

Bloomberg has more on this dynamic.

Firms in Germany’s industrial heartland rely on elaborate, just-in-time supply chains that take advantage of lower costs in Hungary and Poland. French supermarket chains are supplied with fresh produce that speeds north from Spain and Portugal. And trans-national commutes have become commonplace since Europeans can easily choose to, say, live in Belgium and work in France.

Permanent controls would destroy the business model of German industry, says Rainer Hundsdoerfer, chairman of EBM-Papst.

“You get the products you need for assembly here in Germany just in time,” he said by phone. “That’s why the trucks go nonstop. They come here, they unload, they load, and off they go. The cost isn’t the only prime issue” in reinstating border checks. “It’s that we couldn’t even do it.”

Nor could anyone else, he adds: “Nothing in German industry, regardless of whether it’s automotives or appliances or ventilators, could exist without the extended workbenches in eastern Europe.” Based in Mulfingen in central Germany, Hundsdoerfer’s company has been making electric motors and fans since it was founded in 1963, and has factories in countries including Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic.

German auto-parts manufacturer Continental AG, for instance, has 15 to 20 trucks running across Europe on a typical day. Their longest trips take about 1 1/2 to 2 days and cross multiple borders. If full customs and immigration checks were restored, leading to average waits of four hours at each frontier, that could mean another 160 hours of extra journey time a day across 20 trucks, said supply-chain head Juergen Braunstetter: “Over a year, you can imagine the cost.”

Here is the area that the Schengen Agreement …read more

Source: $530 Billion Over Ten Years – How The End Of Border-less Travel Threatens Europe’s Economy

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