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By Tyler Durden

Last week,

U.S. forces have also had increased success in eliminating top ISIS leaders. Air strikes in recent weeks killed a top official called Abd al-Rahman Mustafa al-Qaduli, and an Islamic State commander described as the group’s “minister of war” — Abu Omar al-Shishani, or Omar the Chechen.

To be sure, now that the world is far more focused on ISIS’ Turkish source of funds, while Russian air strikes have decimated ISIS oil supply routes to Turkey, suddenly the money feeding the ISIS state has slowed to a crawl.

Nonetheless, the ISIS-controlled cities remain potent threat abroad, claiming credit for major attacks in Paris in November and Brussels in March.

As such, as we have written on previous occasions, there appears to be a scramble between Russia and US forces to be the first to gain control over these two cities. Here Reuters notes that the dozens of U.S. special operations forces now in Syria are working closely with a collection of Syrian Arab groups within an alliance that is still dominated by Kurdish forces. The United States has been supplying Arabs in the thousands-strong alliance with ammunition since October.

While the strategy is showing results so far, U.S. officials and Kurdish leaders agree that a predominately Arab force is needed to take Raqqa, a majority Arab city whose residents would consider Kurds as occupiers.

That is unless the Syrian army, supported by Russia, isn’t able to liberate the city first.

Meanwhile, in a separate report, the Daily Beast reports that there while there are currently only 5,000 U.S. troops in Iraq—about what a colonel usually commands. But for this ISIS war, as many as 21 generals have been deployed (to a war the US denies fighting). More:

In the war against the self-proclaimed Islamic State, the U.S. military is notably short on soldiers, but apparently not on generals.

There are at least 12 U.S. generals in Iraq, a stunningly high number for a war that, if you believe the White House talking points, doesn’t involve American troops in combat. And that number is, if anything, a conservative estimate, not taking into account the flag officers running the U.S. air war, the admirals helping wage the war from the sea, or their superiors back at the Pentagon.

At U.S. headquarters inside Baghdad’s fortified Green Zone, even majors and colonels frequently find themselves saluting superiors at a pace that outranks the Pentagon and certainly any normal military installation. With about 5,000 troops deployed to Iraq and Syria ISIS war, that means there’s a general for every 416 troops, give or take. To compare, there are some captains in the U.S. Army in charge of that many people.

* * *

But if the U.S. footprint is so small, why does the war demand so many generals?

Why so many generals to so few troops? …read more

Source: U.S. To "Greatly Increase" Special Forces Deployed In Syria

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By Tyler Durden

We can observe the same media non-performance in the foreign affairs arena. The Syrian army aided by the Russian air force just liberated Palmyra from ISIS troops that Washington sent to overthrow the Syrian government. Although pretending to be fighting ISIS, Washington and London are silent about this victory on what is supposed to be a common front against the terror group.

It has been left to the Independent:

RT:

and the Mayor of London to break the silence.

What the Washington/London silence on the victory tells me is that Washington still intends to unseat Assad. The most likely reason for Secretary of State Kerry’s trips to Moscow is to try to work out a deal in which Washington accepts the defeat of ISIS in exchange for Moscow’s acceptance of Assad’s removal. The neoconservatives have not lost control of the Obama regime, and they remain committed to removing Assad for the benefit of Israel. Moscow wants to get along with Washington, and if Moscow is not careful about trusting Washington, Moscow will lose in diplomacy the war it has won.

Yesterday I was stuck in front of Fox “News” for some minutes on both sides of 1:00 PM US East Coast time. It was one of the blonds and some character presented as a terrorism or ISIS expert. It seemed to me that the purpose was to prepare Americans for the next false flag attack. ISIS, we were told, will be branching out and bringing its bombing attacks to America.

All of these bombing attacks have anomalies that the media never notices. Whatever officials say is reported as factual. How these bombings serve Washington’s agendas is never mentioned. The bombings often have the same pattern—brothers who conveniently leave their IDs on the scene. I suppose that having hit on an explanation that worked, the explanation is used repeatedly.

Liberalism has helped to make Western peoples blind by creating the belief that noble intentions are more prevalent than corrupt intentions. This false belief blinds people to the roles played by deception and coercion in governing. Consequently, the true facts are not perceived and governments can pursue hidden agendas by manipulating news.

…read more

Source: Paul Craig Roberts: "How They Brainwash Us"

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By Tyler Durden

From Morgan Stanley’s Matthew Hornbach

Unbeknownst to me at the time, I learned a valuable lesson at the start of my career that would resurface years later. Nearly 16 years ago, I began working in Tokyo as an analyst on the Japanese government bond trading desk at Morgan Stanley. It was August 2000 and the Bank of Japan raised its overnight policy rate by 25bp for the first time since initiating its zero interest rate policy, in February 1999.

The BoJ raised its policy rate by 25bp and 10-year JGB yields rose by a similar amount in the same month. But in the seven months that followed, I learned that what happens overseas sometimes matters more to the bond market and to the central bank than what happens at home. In those seven months, 10-year JGB yields proceeded to decline rather precipitously, by 100bp. The move to lower yields ended, temporarily, with the BoJ reversing course on its policy rate. The dot-com bubble had popped and equity markets began a multi-year decline.

Similar to the BoJ back then, the Fed is now finding itself subject to what is happening overseas. The outcome of the March FOMC meeting, with the median participant removing two rate hikes in 2016, and Fed Chair Yellen’s subsequent speech were much more dovish than expected by the market. Both referenced risks posed by global economic and financial developments. Presciently, our US economists had also removed two rate hikes from their 2016 outlook earlier that month. Their views on US growth and inflation are well below consensus – prompting us to deliver well below consensus Treasury yield forecasts.

We see 10-year Treasury yields ending 2016 at 1.75%, near current levels. But we see even lower yields catching investors off guard in the middle quarters of the year.

The lessons I learned in Japan leave me comfortable with this outlook. Years of staring at low JGB yields certainly immunized me from the sticker shock associated with low Treasury yields. And I know that investors tried to short JGBs mostly without success for years. But it wasn’t until I read Richard Koo’s tome, The Holy Grail of Macroeconomics: Lessons from Japan’s Great Recession, that I began to understand why yields got and remained so low.

Koo’s book changed the way I viewed the world and the way I interpret the message from government bond markets. Koo laid out the concept of a balance sheet recession so clearly that anyone with such an understanding ex ante would have never dared short the JGB market. The idea that credit demand could become inelastic with respect to price struck me as novel. That the price of credit, even government credit, could fall without a commensurate increase in demand perfectly explained the way the JGB market evolved during Japan’s lost decades.

The idea also explains the way global sovereign bond markets have evolved since the world emerged from the Great Financial Crisis. As our economists have suggested before, the …read more

Source: One Trader’s Important Lesson From The Japanese Bond Market

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By Tyler Durden

By Jody Chudley, originally posted on the Daily Reckoning

Simple Math Shows America Is Headed for an Economic Disaster

With so many voices streaming at us through our televisions and computers, a person can’t be blamed for tuning out.

For the most part, tuning out is exactly what we should do. But sometimes it is very important that we pay attention…

By listening to Jeremy Grantham, Jim Grant and a host of other investors, a person could have avoided and profited the crashing of the tech bubble of the late ’90s.

By listening to Kyle Bass, Michael Burry and Prem Watsa, an investor could have avoided and even profited from the crashing of the housing bubble in 2008.

Today is another time when we all need to be paying attention. This time, the man we need to be listening to is Stan Druckenmiller.

For 25 years as a hedge fund manager, Druckenmiller compounded money at an annualized rate of return of 30%. Incredibly, he did it without a single down year.

Druckenmiller has a dire warning for all of us. One that requires action.

There is nothing for Druckenmiller to gain from providing this warning. He isn’t talking his book or trying to gain investor support — he isn’t promoting anything. He doesn’t even have a political agenda.

He is spending his own time and money to try to bring this issue to light because he believes it is crucial for the United States.

Druckenmiller simply believes that America is heading for a disaster, and he is trying to use his high-profile position to get people motivated to stop it.

What you need to know about Stan Druckenmiller is that his incredible investing performance was rooted in his skills in making macroeconomic forecasts.

When describing how he was able to compound money at such a crazy rate and not have a single down year, Druckenmiller said:

How did we do it? Very simple. While others were focusing on the present, we looked and focused on the future in terms of analyzing unsustainable situations.

And when I look at the current picture of expected tax revenues combined with benefits promised to future generations, this is the most unsustainable situation I have seen ever in my career.

The disaster that Druckenmiller sees coming for the United States is all about changing demographics and entitlement spending. They don’t add up to a sustainable situation.

In 1940, entitlement payments, which include everything from disability payments to Social Security to Medicare, amounted to just over 20% of annual government spending in the United States.

Today, entitlement spending has swelled to nearly 70% of the annual federal budget.

Things are about to get a whole lot more complicated. The 20-year baby boom that took place after World War II is now beginning to result in a retiree boom.

For context, Druckenmiller points out that in 2030, the average age of an American citizen …read more

Source: Stanley Druckenmiller: "This Is The Most Unsustainable Situation I Have Seen In My Career"

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By Tyler Durden

Submitted by Pepe Escobar via TheSaker.is,

UW was spelled out by the 2010 Special Forces Unconventional Warfare manual. Here’s the money quote:

“The intent of US [Unconventional Warfare] UW efforts is to exploit a hostile power’s political, military, economic, and psychological vulnerabilities by developing and sustaining resistance forces to accomplish US strategic objectives… For the foreseeable future, US forces will predominantly engage in irregular warfare (IW) operations.”

“Hostile” powers are meant not only in a military sense; any state that dares to defy any significant plank of the Washington-centric world “order” – from Sudan to Argentina – may be branded “hostile”.

The dangerous liaisons between color revolutions and UW have now fully blossomed as Hybrid War; a warped case of Flowers of Evil. A color revolution is nothing but the first stage of what will become Hybrid War. And Hybrid War can be interpreted essentially as the weaponization of chaos theory – an absolute conceptual darling of the US military (“politics is the continuation of war by linguistic means”). My 2014 book Empire of Chaos essentially tracks its myriad manifestations.

This very well-argued three-part thesis clarifies the central objective behind a major Hybrid War; “to disrupt multipolar transnational connective projects through externally provoked identity conflicts (ethnic, religious, political, etc.) within a targeted transit state.”

The BRICS – an extremely dirty word/concept in the Beltway/Wall Street axis – had to be the prime targets of Hybrid War. For myriad reasons. Among them; the push for trade and commerce in their own currencies, bypassing the US dollar; the creation of the BRICS development bank; the avowed drive towards Eurasia integration, symbolized by the now converging China-led New Silk Roads – or One Belt, One Road (OBOR), in its official terminology – and Russia-led Eurasia Economic Union (EEU).

This implies that Hybrid War sooner rather than later will hit Central Asia; Kyrgysztan, a prime lab for Exceptionalistan experiments of the color revolution kind, is the ideal candidate.

As it stands, Hybrid War is very much active in Russia’s western borderlands (Ukraine) but still embryonic in Xinjiang, China’s Far West, which Beijing micromanages like a hawk. Hybrid War is already being applied to prevent a crucial Pipelineistan gambit; the construction of Turkish Stream. And will also be fully applied to interrupt the Balkan Silk Road – essential for China’s integrated trade/commerce with Eastern Europe.

As the BRICS are the only, real counter power to Exceptionalistan, a strategy had to be developed for each of the major players. Everything was thrown at Russia – from sanctions to full demonization, from a raid on its currency to an oil price war, even including (pathetic) …read more

Source: Brazil (Like Russia) Is Under Attack By Hyrbid War

    

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Posted April 3rd, 2016 in Uncategorized.