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By Tyler Durden

Various far-right groups, including the anti-migrant Generation Identitaire movement, demonstrated in Belgium’s notorious Molenbeek district, the notorious terrorist breeding ground of the Belgian capital, on Saturday. At the same time, leftist groups held counter-rallies. Though the demonstrations were banned in Brussels following the March attacks, several rallies still took place in Belgian capital.

Since the attacks in Brussels Zaventem Airport and Maelbeek metro station that rocked the Belgian capital on March 22, Belgium has been on high alert, while tension between various local groups and migrants has escalated to unprecedented levels, confirmed by today’s events, when according to

@B3zero https://t.co/MN1O3v4gJS

— B3zero (@B3zero) April 2, 2016

#Molenbeek en sécurité pic.twitter.com/2hdLduXD2P

— samirlebelge (@samirlebelge) April 2, 2016

Happening Now – Brussels police detains about 30 peaceful anti racists chanting at place de la bourse pic.twitter.com/bkT4i4NWMU

— denise reese (@denice_ruptly) April 2, 2016

According to RT, at least two armed far-right activists with Molotov cocktail arrested in the Molenbeek district.

But the most shocking and violent moment took place when a car drove toward the police line, spraying a fire extinguisher. While driving off, the Audi hit a woman head on, according to twitter reports.

The video below captures the moment of impact of what RT reports, was a Muslim woman wearing a hijab, without so much as slowing down, as she bounces off the bonnet. The woman was taken to hospital immediately afterwards

Viewer discretion advised.

The perpetrator, who the Belgian media say is a resident of Molenbeek, has since reportedly been arrested.

#Molenbeek #zonderwoorden #nocomment #perplexe pic.twitter.com/pSKINbUXMv

— brussels mood (@brusselsmood) April 2, 2016

And as the world becomes witness to increasing violence by both sides, one thing is certain: Molenbeek residents will feel compelled to escalate their acts of violence even more in the next inevitable attack, which in turn will lead to an even more violent response, and so on until deadly violence between assorted groups of people is a daily fixture across Europe.

…read more

Source: Shocking Video From Brussels Anti-Islam Protest Of Moment Muslim Woman Is Run Over By Car

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By Tyler Durden

Today’s

While we expect that this latest scandal will quickly be forgotten, what we find most paradoxical about the situation is that the Greek ire is focused on the one entity that, while hardly innocent as per Lagarde’s previous comments, is actually is pushing for a Greek debt reduction over the refusal of European, and especially German, institutions. Granted, we also understand the Greek ire: being used as guniea pigs by the IMF in its policy battle with other NGOs is hardly pleasing and if anything, is a reflection of the Greek recent collapse into quasi-vassal status and ongoing ward of the ECB. Recall that Greece still has capital controls as its banking system is completely insolvent, and that this leverage Europe has over the country and the money of its savers will not change for a long time.

…read more

Source: Greek Prime Minister Sends Angry Letter To Christine Lagarde Over IMF Leak

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By Tyler Durden

In recent weeks, JPMorgan has turned decidedly sour on the US equity market: one month ago, on March 3, JPM announced that “for the first time this cycle”, it has gone underweight stocks.

Equities, credit and commodities have all rallied in the last three weeks, as some of the immediate threats to the world economy have faded from attention, possibly only because the bad earnings season has wound up. But, to us, the fundamentals of growth, earnings and recession risk have not improved, and if anything have worsened. We remain wary of the near-empty ammo box of policy makers.

Our 12-month-out US recession odds have risen to 1/3, while equity-implied odds have instead fallen to near 1/5. But even with no recession this year or next, we see US earnings rising only slowly by low single digits and see little to boost multiples. The eventual recession should bring US stocks down some 30%, creating a strong downward risk skew to returns over the next few years.

We use the rally in stocks to sell it and go underweight stocks, versus HG corporate bonds and cash. The strong rebound of the past few weeks does create near-term momentum, and thus keeps our first UW small.

To be sure, the continued bounce since the JPM call has not been exactly reassuring of the forecast’s accuracy. However, what is surprising is that when faced with unpalatable price action, sellside researchers usually flip their call quickly.

Not in this case, because in a surprisingly candid piece released overnight, JPM’s Jan Loeys doubles down, and after asking rhetorically “Can central banks really save the day, or cycle?”, his answer is no. In fact, after saying now is the time to sell stocks, JPM’s head of global asset allocation is now even far more concerned about the over economy where his biggest concern is that central banks are powerless to stop the “collapsing productivity growth.”

Loeys begins as follows:

Equities and bonds are both up on the week, fueled by supportive central bank talk. Commodities and the dollar are down, with EM asset classes continuing to outperform. Our overall strategy remains on the defensive side. We started a year ago to dollar-average from the long risk positions we have held over the past seven years towards a more defensive one where we finally arrived last month.

The main drivers of this year-long process are the sense that the cycle in economic and earnings growth is maturing, leading us to the eventual recession, as well as the more structural force of the global collapse in productivity growth. Of the two, we view the latter one as the more ominous, as it is potentially much longer lasting, with no obvious force driving it, nor a policy solution in sight to reverse it.

Both of these negatives to world …read more

Source: Why JPMorgan Believes Central Banks Can No Longer Save The Day

    

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By Tyler Durden

Submitted by Mac Slavo via SHTFPlan.com,

Not only does President Obama refuse to join the words “Islam” and “terrorism,” but the White House won’t let anyone else do it either.

In a video that appeared on the White House website this morning, the words of French President Francois Hollande were censored to remove the following segment:

Islamist terrorism, is in Syria and in Iraq. We therefore have to act both in Syria and in Iraq, and this is what we’re doing within the framework of the coalition.

Here’s the censored video that has since been taken down from the White House website.

Here’s a screenshot of the transcript that was published on the site, which contains President Hollande’s full statement.

You know it’s obvious that Obama is avoiding using the phrase “Islamic terror” when even the NY Post notices. Back in November, after the Paris attack, columnist Michael Goodwin called for the President’s resignation. Goodwin wrote:

President Obama has spent the last seven years trying to avoid the world as it is. He has put his intellect and rhetorical skills into the dishonorable service of assigning blame and fudging failure. If nuances were bombs, the Islamic State would have been destroyed years ago.

He refuses to say “Islamic terrorism,” as if that would offend the peaceful Muslims who make up the vast bulk of victims. He rejects the word “war,” even as jihadists carry out bloodthirsty attacks against Americans and innocent peoples around the world.

After the attacks in San Bernadino, California in December, we pointed out that Obama attempted to shift the blame away from radical Islam to…wait for it…workplace violence.

President Obama said that the San Bernardino terrorists had mixed motives for killing 14 people and injuring 17 others. He warned Americans not to draw any conclusions:

“At this stage, we do not yet know why this terrible event occurred.”

“We do know that the two individuals who were killed were equipped with weapons and appeared to have access to additional weaponry in their homes. But we don’t know why they did it.”

…

“It is possible that this was terrorist-related, but we don’t know. It’s also possible this was workplace-related.”

“We don’t know why they did it. We don’t know at this point the extent of their plans.”

Are you f*cking serious, Mr. President?

As we noted earlier, The Intent Here Was Jihad And It Was Carefully Premeditated And Planned. President Obama, his national security team and the FBI know this.

Maybe if we all hide under our blankies and refuse to say the words, we can pretend this threat doesn’t exist too.

…read more

Source: White House Censors French President’s Use Of The Words "Islamic Terrorism"

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By Tyler Durden

When we

h/t @rudyhavenstein

…read more

Source: IMF’s Christine Lagarde: "When The World Goes Downhill, We Thrive"

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By Tyler Durden

How quickly the oil production freeze narrative has fallen apart.

Source: stockboardasset

Indeed, it’s been a tough two days for oil bulls holding on to hope that excess oil production will normalize in the near term and that the world’s oil suppliers would somehow manage to curb oil production in the aftermath of the OPEC’s November 2014 cartel collapse.

First it was yesterday’s Bloomberg story which cited the Saudi Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman as saying that the Saudis would not participate in an oil production freeze unless everyone including Iran which has made it joined “If all countries including Iran, Russia, Venezuela, OPEC countries and all main producers decide to freeze production, we will be among them.“

The second one came overnight.

Recall that one month ago, just as Russia and Saudi Arabia were finalizing their “agreement” to freeze oil production which was the major catalyst for the oil surge from its 13 year lows hit in early February, we got the surprising news that far from throttling production, Russian crude and condensate production just set new post-Soviet daily record of 10.92 million barrels.

Well, overnight we got the latest update of Russian oil output, and according to Bloomberg it just set a new post-Soviet high in March “as the success of a proposed crude production freeze between OPEC members and other major producers appeared to be in doubt.”

Bloomberg reports that Russian production of crude and a light oil called condensate climbed 2.1 percent in March from a year earlier to 10.912 million barrels a day, according to the Energy Ministry’s CDU-TEK unit. That narrowly beat the previous high of 10.910 million barrels in January.

With most of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries members, Russia and some others outside the group scheduled to meet in Doha this month to discuss an accord on capping output, Saudi Arabia’s Mohammed bin Salman signaled in an interview with Bloomberg that if any country raises output, the kingdom will also boost sales. Prices on Friday sank more than 4 percent after the comments. Iran previously said it plans to boost production after the lifting of sanctions following a deal to curb its nuclear program.

Saudi Arabia, Russia, Venezuela and Qatar in February first proposed an accord to cap oil output to reduce a worldwide surplus and boost prices. Brent prices in London have gained nearly 40 percent from the 12-year low reached in January.

But what was most notable is that Russian oil exports rose 10% to 5.59 million barrels a day, according to the Energy Ministry data. This is just the start because as we wrote two weeks ago, according to Reuters calculations based on Energy Ministry data, Russia will have as much as 4.3 million tonnes of idle refining capacity next month, more than twice the 1.9 million tonnes unused in March. Russian refineries traditionally have the largest …read more

Source: "Production Freeze" Narrative Collapses In Two Days: Russian Oil Output Hits New Post-Soviet Record

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By Tyler Durden

To the point of mean reversion in profit margins, in the past I have referenced the words of a pair of investment legends. Jeremy Grantham has called profit margins, “the most mean-reverting series in finance.” And back in 1999, Warren Buffett explained why:

In my opinion, you have to be wildly optimistic to believe that corporate profits as a percent of GDP can, for any sustained period, hold much above 6%. One thing keeping the percentage down will be competition, which is alive and well. In addition, there’s a public-policy point: If corporate investors, in aggregate, are going to eat an ever-growing portion of the American economic pie, some other group will have to settle for a smaller portion. That would justifiably raise political problems—and in my view a major reslicing of the pie just isn’t going to happen.

Both of these two gentlemen clearly believe, and very strongly, that corporate profit margins have an equilibrium. They can rise above or fall below that equilibrium but the very nature of capitalism, along with its social contract, will force an inevitable reversion to the mean.

I believe there are three major factors behind the recent bubble in corporate profit margins.

First, and most obvious, is the simple trend in interest rates over the past 35 years or so. As rates have fallen to lows not seen in many generations, debt has become much less costly, especially when you also consider that corporate spreads on top of these ultra-low rates have also fallen to ultra-low levels.

Second, corporate taxes as a percent of income have been falling for a long time, as well. Recently, this may be due in large part to the growth of tax avoidance strategies, mainly those involving relocating corporate headquarters to tax havens.

Third, labor costs have also been falling for quite some time. Much of this may be due to the trend toward automation and, perhaps far more so, the offshoring of labor over the past several decades. This falling corporate cost is very apparent in the labor share of income numbers that many have discussed recently, including Paul Tudor Jones.

These three secular trends have provided a tailwind for profit margins for a long time now. However, they may be reaching, or have already reached, their full potential and begun reverting. In terms of interest rates, the Fed Funds rate has essentially been stuck at zero for seven years now. Corporate spreads hit rock bottom almost two years ago and have been reversing course ever since. Furthermore, after a long period of deregulation in the banking industry that saw lending standards loosen considerably, it appears that regulation is making a sustained comeback and the effect will likely be just the opposite.

Politically, …read more

Source: A "Generational" Peak In Corporate Profit Margins

    

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