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By Tyler Durden

Electrabel is disgusted with the media. Why? Because in the aftermath of the Brussels attacks, the electric utility thinks journalists have made too much of the alleged threat to the country’s nuclear infrastructure.

Hours after four attackers detonated explosives-laden belts and luggage in the Brussels airport and metro, reports began to surface that the Tihange and Doel nuclear power plants were being evacuated.

That would have been alarming enough on its own, but last month it emerged that when Belgian authorities raided a home in Auvelais last November in connection with the Paris attacks, investigators recovered hours of surveillance footage apparently recorded by terrorists at the home of a top nuclear official. There’s now some speculation that the Bakraoui brothers (two of the four Brussels bombers) were involved in covertly monitoring the official’s home.

Obviously, that suggests that the cell was (and probably still is) interested in either sabotaging a nuclear facility and/or obtaining radioactive material for the purposes of developing a dirty bomb. That’s not an attempt to sow panic, it’s simply the conclusion one comes to when told that terrorists were in possession of video tapes depicting the day-to-day routine of nuclear officials and their families.

Electrabel would later say the Tihange had actually not been “evacuated” per se. Rather, non essential personnel were told they could go home.

#Tihange nuclear powerplant – people who are not strictly necessary on site can leave #security measures

— Electrabel (@Electrabel) March 22, 2016

On Saturday, the utility became even more exasperated when Derniere Heure reported that a Tihange security guard had been shot in Charleroi and his access badge stolen. That report, Electrabel insists, is “false.”

Electrabel roept op de grootste voorzichtigheid met betrekking tot artikels die zaterdagochtend verschenen zijn https://t.co/2ux75SPlse

— Electrabel (@Electrabel) March 26, 2016

Translation: “Electrabel calls the greatest caution with regard to articles that have appeared Saturday morning.”

“Electrabel deplores that its sites are being used regularly this week to illustrate articles without any link to the company or its 5,000 workers,” a statement reads. Hopefully the company doesn’t expect this “deplorable” state of affairs to improve any time soon because if you know anything about the history of Tihange and Doel (see here and here for more), you know why Belgians are worried.

“It’s like talcum powder,” Matthew Bunn, a specialist in nuclear security at Harvard’s John F. Kennedy School of Government, told The New York Times, regarding byproducts of isotopes like Cesium-137. “If you made a dirty bomb out of it, it’s going to provoke fear, you would have to evacuate and you have to spend a lot of money cleaning it up; the economic destruction cost could be very high.”

Yes, “it’s going to provoke fear,” much like running a story about how to survive a nuclear terrorist attack when the public is already at wit’s end. But better safe than sorry we suppose …read more

Source: Belgian Media Explains What To Do During A Nuclear Disaster

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By Tyler Durden

Submitted by Alasdair Macleod via GoldMoney.com,

Some reflections to read over the Easter holidays

With Japanese and Eurozone interest rates becoming increasingly negative, and the Fed backing off from at least some of the planned increases in the Fed funds rate this year, economists are reassessing the interest rate outlook.

Economists lack consensus, with some expecting yet more easing, based on the apparent collapse in cross-border trade last year. The fact that the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank see fit to pursue increasingly aggressive monetary reflation is taken as evidence of underlying difficulties faced in these key economies. And lingering doubts about the sustainability of China’s credit bubble point to a high risk of a credit-induced slump in the world’s growth engine.

Other economists, citing official US data and relying on the Fed’s statements, point out that unemployment levels have more than satisfied the Fed’s target, and that core inflation has picked up to the point where the Fed would be fully justified to increase interest rates over the course of this year, or risk overheating in 2017.

These two opposite camps conflict in their forecasts, but where they fundamentally differ is in expectations of future economic growth. Far from displaying the highest levels of macroeconomic discipline, their diversity of opinion should alert us that their forecasts may lack sound theoretical foundation. The purpose of reasoned theory is to reduce uncertainty, not promote it. And the explanation for most of the failures behind modern macroeconomic thinking is the substitution of market-based economics by economic planning.

The fact that today’s macroeconomics dismisses the laws of the markets, commonly referred to by economists as Say’s law, explains all. Subsequent errors confirm. The many errors are a vast subject, but they boil down to that one fateful step, and that is denying the universal truth of Say’s law.

Say’s law is about the division of labour. People earn money and make profits from deploying their individual skills in the production of goods and services for the benefit of others. Despite the best attempts of Marxism and Keynesianism along with all the other isms, attempts to override this reality have always failed. The failure is not adequately reflected in government statistics, which have evolved to the point where they actually conceal it. So when an economist talks of economic growth being above or below trend, he is talking about a measure that has no place in sound economic reasoning, and that is gross domestic product.

GDP

Gross domestic product in its current form is a relatively recent invention, dating from the 1930s. It was a gift to state-sponsored economists, needing a statistical justification for perfecting their theories of management of the economy. At last, here was a means of measuring the effects of economic policy, and therefore to adjust its future implementation based on evidence. The inconvenience of having to pander to markets had been dealt its final blow. Or so it was thought.

GDP comes in various guises, but …read more

Source: Another Volcker Moment? Guessing The Future Without Say’s Law

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By Tyler Durden

Much like BoJ governor Haruhiko Kuroda, Paul Krugman thinks that the key for Japan when it comes to overcoming decades of deflation is a positive outlook.

“Japan needs to reach a point where everyone believes that it has pulled out of deflation. And then if that can be believed, then it may be able to stay out of trouble thereafter,” he told an audience in Tokyo last September.

That rather ridiculous pronouncement is reminiscent of something Kuroda said last summer: “I trust that many of you are familiar with the story of Peter Pan, in which it says, ‘the moment you doubt whether you can fly, you cease forever to be able to do it.’ Yes, what we need is a positive attitude and conviction.”

In other words, Krugman and Kuroda believe that Japan can wish its way out of deflation. Krugman’s comments in Tokyo came around 10 months after he visited Japan in 2014. On that trip, he’s said to have helped convince PM Shinzo Abe to delay a planned sales tax hike. “That nailed Abe’s decision — Krugman was Krugman, he was so powerful,” Japanese economist Etsuro Honda said, recounting a meeting between the economist and the premier.

Well, 16 months has passed since that fateful visit and virtually nothing has changed in Japan. In fact, the Japanese have since taken a further plunge down the Keynesian rabbit hole by taking interest rates negative and not only is inflation still languishing at essentially zero, stocks are some 20% off their highs and this month the yen actually hit its highest levels since Kuroda announced the second round of QE two Octobers ago.

With the entire enterprise now falling apart, and with JGBs yo-yoing around like penny stocks as traders try to game BoJ POMO, Krugman was back in Tokyo this week to attend a panel discussion on the global economy with Abe and senior Japanese policy makers. There, the good professor called for Abe to scrap the sales tax hike and introduce more fiscal stimulus. NIRP, he said, is probably “a good idea.”

Excerpts from Krugman’s speech can be found below.

We are now in the world of pervasive economic weakness. In many ways, we are all Japan now. This complicates policy for everyone including Japan.

We are seeing the difficulty in achieving goals through even very bold and unconventional monetary policy. Kuroda-san here, we will clearly need to speak about that. Monetary policy needs help from fiscal and possibly other policies but certainly on the fiscal side, and certainly does not need to be struggling against fiscal policy moving in the opposite direction. That is not just a Japanese issue but very much a global issue at this point.

Despite everything, despite everything that Mr. Kuroda is doing, the rise in the yen, which is a very unfortunate development from Japan’s point of view, is driven …read more

Source: Krugman Goes To Japan, Scolds Abe For Worrying About Quadrillion Yen Debt Pile, Leaves

    

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