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It’s Not The Economy, Stupid; Barron’s Admits "It’s A Bullard Market"

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By Tyler Durden

It appears the complete decoupling from economic reality of the so-called US equity 'market', combined with the collapse in a data-dependent Fed's credibility – topics we have extensively covered – has reached the mainstream.

Micro-economy? Earnings expectations… Nope!

Bullard-economy… Yep!

Excerpted from Barron'sIs it a bull market or a bear market? Or maybe just a Bullard market?

That is, as in James Bullard, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Not only is he among the voters this year on the policy setting Federal Open Market Committee, he is also perhaps the most vocal member of the panel's adjunct, the Federal Open Mouth Committee.

In his habit of speaking early and often, Bullard has developed a nearly unequaled ability to move markets, which was on display last week. In various appearances, he suggested that the central bank's next interest-rate increase could come as soon as the FOMC's meeting on April 26 and 27.

Bullard's point last week was that the conditions that let the FOMC make its long-awaited initial increase in its short-term interest-rate target in December — to 0.25%-0.5%, 25 basis points (a quarter-percentage point) above the near-zero level where it had been held for seven years since the dark days of the financial crisis — were present. That is, unemployment had met the Fed's target, at just under 5%, while inflation was closing in on the central bank's goal of 2%.

But that was far different from what the St. Louis Fed chief was saying just last month

  • On Feb. 17, he contended in a speech that it would be “unwise to continue a normalization strategy” — read, rate hikes — while inflation expectations were declining.
  • So, in five weeks, Bullard has gone from arguing to hold off on higher interest rates, as the FOMC opted to do at the March 15 and 16 meeting, to putting them on the table as soon as next month.

What has changed so radically in that span?

The market-based measure of inflation forecasts did advance. According to the St. Louis Fed's own charting, five-year forward inflation expectations ( derived from the spread on Treasury inflation protected securities, or TIPS, versus regular Treasury notes) did tick up to 172 basis points on Wednesday, when Bullard made his comments to the New York Association for Business Economics. They had been at 152 basis points on Feb. 17, when he cautioned against rate hikes.

That's a mere 20-basis-point uptick over that span, and 30 basis points from the low touched on Feb. 11. Arguably, what has really changed since then has been the stock market, which rallied sharply, with the Standard & Poor's 500 index jumping more than 12% above its February low to last week's peak. After Bullard made his comments on Wednesday, stocks retreated in tandem with a renewed slide in crude-oil prices and …read more

Source: It’s Not The Economy, Stupid; Barron’s Admits "It’s A Bullard Market"

    

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Hawaii May Become First State In US To Decriminalize All Drugs

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By Tyler Durden

Submitted by Claire Bernish via TheAntiMedia.org,

Following Portugal’s model, Hawai`i could become the first state in the U.S. to decriminalize all drugs — including cocaine and even heroin.

“[D]espite a longstanding policy that enforces illicit drug prohibition and imposes some of the world’s harshest penalties for drug possession and sales, illicit drug use in the United States has been increasing,” states a resolution that passed, amended by the Hawai`i House Judiciary Committee on Thursday.

Now that it’s been approved, the study’s findings will be due later this year, “no later than 20 days prior” to the convening of the legislature’s 2017 session.

According to testimony from the Legislative Reference Bureau Acting Director, Charlotte A. Carter-Yamauchi, the study will reference Portugal’s successful decriminalization with the caveat of recognizing Hawai`i’s obligation to follow federal law. But the state recognizes the numerous failures and pitfalls of the national war on drugs and its policies, beginning with passage of the Harrison Narcotics Act of 1914.

“Addicts are still considered to be violating the law by possessing drugs and have no legal way of obtaining them. The war on drugs most problematic effects are in its pursuit of dealers and traffickers. This is what has made the business lucrative and violent, caused addicts to steal to obtain drug money, and burdened the tax payers [sic] and criminal justice system,” Libertarian Party of Hawai`i Chair, Tracy Ryan, submitted in support of the study, with the recommendation to examine pre-1914 U.S. drug policy.

Among others offering testimony, the Drug Policy Forum of Hawai`i issued a statement in “strong support” of studying the issue, as well as a recommendation the LRB carry out a “twin study” on “the effects of legalization of marijuana for adult use.” Noting the Supreme Court’s refusal to intervene in a dispute between Colorado, Nebraska, and Oklahoma — stemming from Colorado’s cannabis legalization — the Forum claimed it would be an “opportune time” to conduct the parallel study.

Policymakers in Hawai`i decided to turn to Portugal’s across-the-board decriminalization, which became law on July 1, 2001, for consideration, after the CATO Institute issued a report touting the policy’s success. Cited in testimony by Kat Brady, Coordinator of Community Alliance on Prisons, the report’s conclusion stated:

“None of the fears promulgated by opponents of Portuguese decriminalization has come to fruition, whereas many of the benefits predicted by drug policymakers from instituting a decriminalization regime have been realized. While drug addiction, usage, and associated pathologies continue to skyrocket in many EU states, those problems — in virtually every relevant category — have been either contained or measurably improved within Portugal since 2001 […]

“By freeing its citizens from the fear of prosecution and imprisonment for drug usage, Portugal has dramatically improved its ability to encourage drug addicts to avail themselves of treatment. The resources that were previously devoted to prosecuting and imprisoning drug addicts are now available to provide treatment …read more

Source: Hawaii May Become First State In US To Decriminalize All Drugs

    

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Chapter One: Who is behind one of the biggest scams in history?

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for latest details.

…read more

Source: Chapter One: Who is behind one of the biggest scams in history?

    

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‘Batman v Superman’ fights off bad reviews for big $82 million opening day

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“Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice” starring Henry Cavill as Superman and Ben Affleck as Batman is the main event at this weekend’s box office.

…read more

Source: ‘Batman v Superman’ fights off bad reviews for big $82 million opening day

    

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Georgia, N.C. and beyond: The clash over ‘anti-gay’ bills

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In North Carolina and Georgia legislation that is perceived as anti-LGBT has been met with differing degrees of corporate backlash. With similar bills being debated in other states, the struggle is just getting started.

…read more

Source: Georgia, N.C. and beyond: The clash over ‘anti-gay’ bills

    

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Chairman Of Insolvent Chinese Steel Company Hangs Himself Day Before Bond Maturity

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By Tyler Durden

Back in October when we first looked at ground zero of the commodity price collapse, we found something striking: as of the end of 2014,

And since in the intervening time period, both commodity prices have dropped far lower, while Chinese corporate debt has proceeded to soar exponentially, we said it was “safe to assume that up to two-third of Chinese commodity companies are now at imminent danger of default, as they can’t even generate the cash to pay down the interest on their debt, let alone fund repayments.”

We concluded that “we fully expect this to be the source of the next market freakout: when the punditry turns its attention away from macro China, which has more than enough problems to begin with, and starts to focus on the cash flow devastation in China at the micro, or corporate, level.

To be sure, the Chinese government has done everything in its power to delay this day of reckoning and mask just how extensive the devastation at the local level is, by focusing its entire recently concluded People’s Congress on the topic of sustainability and debt leverage, going so far as to propose a wholesale, and utterly mind-boggling, debt-for-equity exchange at the bank level, one which would involve the nationalization of China’s insolvent commodity enterprises. Alas, we along with most rational observers, are skeptical this plan would ever get off the ground, as it would mean encumbering banks not with secured if impaired loans, but with unsecured equity in still insolvent companies, in the process making China’s solvency problems even worse.

That said, the punditry has indeed started to focus away from macro China and to the “devastation at the corporate level”, most notably in a recent Reuters article which suggested that “China’s campaign to slim down its bloated industries could be derailed by more than $1.5 trillion of debt in its steel, coal, cement and non-ferrous metal sectors, which threatens to overwhelm local banks.

The story is well known: China is providing more than 100 billion yuan ($15 billion) in the next two years to handle layoffs from coal and steel, but that will only be made available once debts have been settled. Critics say there is no clear mechanism for tackling the debt burden, which will put huge strain on the weakest sections of the banking sector.

The debt figures, revealed in papers submitted to China’s parliament this month, highlight the dilemma facing state firms grappling with surplus capacity and how difficult it will be to pull off this central plank of Beijing’s economic reform plans.

Costs for the estimated 1.3 million coal-sector layoffs alone are as much as 195 billion yuan, and coal industry delegates attending parliament urged government to provide more support to deal with the mounting debts of hundreds of stricken “zombie” firms.

* * *

A lawyer who handles steel industry non-performing loans for mid-sized Chinese …read more

Source: Chairman Of Insolvent Chinese Steel Company Hangs Himself Day Before Bond Maturity

    

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"Satanic Cocktail" Of Nails And Acetone Used In Devilish Brussels Bomb Design

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By Tyler Durden

Nearly four days have passed since four men detonated explosives-laden belts and luggage in the Brussels airport and metro killing nearly two dozen people and injuring hundreds and there’s still quite a bit of ambiguity regarding who exactly is dead, who’s still at large, and who was at the scene in the first place.

Part of the confusion stems from the fact that the attackers who died in the blasts were strewn all over the crime scene in pieces, but authorities did manage to determine that among those who blew themselves up were brothers Khalid and Ibrahim El-Bakraoui, one of which was the subject of an Interpol red notice and the other was flagged by Turkey as a “foreign fighter” and deported. Also thought to have been killed in the airport bombings: bombmaker Najim Laachraoui, who is said to have played an instrumental role in building the explosives used in the Paris attacks.

Following the bombings, the taxi driver who delivered Ibrahim Bakraoui, Laachraoui, and a third assailant to the airport called the police. The driver became suspicious when the men were reluctant to let him assist with their luggage which he described as exceptionally heavy. The driver then led police back to the apartment in Schaerbeek (the site of Friday’s sweeping police operation) where he had picked the three men up. On the fifth floor, authorities found 33 lbs of explosives, 180 liters of chemicals, guns, a suitcase full of nails, and an Islamic State flag. Nothing suspicious about that.

Apparently, the apartment was a bomb making factory and in it, the Bakraouis (possibly with the help of Laachraoui or another bombmaker), built the TATP-based explosives used in Tuesday’s attacks. TATP, or triacetone triperoxide, has become an ISIS favorite and for those unlucky enough to find themselves in close proximity when it’s detonated, it’s bad news. Dubbed “the mother of Satan” by Palestinian militants, the white powder is cheap to make and the ingredients are impossible to trace, making it ideal for the clandestine activities of the Islamic State cells operating under the radar of European anti-terror police.

“Used in the 2005 London bombings and the Nov. 13 Paris attacks, and found in a series of foiled bomb attempts in Europe since 2007, TATP appears to be Islamic State’s explosive of choice,” Reuters writes. Here’s more:

Making a TATP bomb, although a more lengthy process than the fertilizer-based explosives used by other European militants, is cheap and simple and recipes and videos by chemistry buffs abound on the Internet. It was discovered by a 19th century German chemist and is very powerful, even in small quantities.

All the ingredients – acetone found in cleaning products, hydrogen peroxide found in wood bleach and sulphuric acid used to unblock kitchen pipes – were available at one Brussels hardware store this week for less than 40 euros ($45).

Nails and …read more

Source: "Satanic Cocktail" Of Nails And Acetone Used In Devilish Brussels Bomb Design

    

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Was This The Worst Economist Forecast Of All Time

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By Tyler Durden

When it comes to predicting the future, there has traditionally been a stealthy contest between economists and weathermen as to who is the worst predictor of coming events. Lately, there was some confusion when economists – this

Did the forecast humiliation end there? Oh no.

The gap between forecast and reality got bigger and bigger thereafter. In fact, over 30 years later, Japan’s nominal GDP and GDP per capital now is where it was 30 years ago even as Japan has piled up a total debt load that is now over 400% of GDP.

Finally, as a consequence, bond yields fell further and further, continuously undershooting forecasts.

Does this look familiar? If not, recall this chart?

And this:

Comical economists aside, “Japanification” is precisely what is happening to the rest of the “developed world” as global growth continues to deteriorate, global debt grows and the only short-term resolution is to keep rates as low as possible… and now, negative across 28% of the entire world.

This weekend we will lay out HSBC’s thoughts on what “turning Japanese” means for the rest of the world. Spoiler alert: only bad things.

In the meantime we ask, when will “economists” be finally laughed off the global stage for the charlatan comedians they all are?

…read more

Source: Was This The Worst Economist Forecast Of All Time

    

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The Slow, Inevitable Collapse Of The Two-Party System

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By Tyler Durden

us uk politics

Submitted by Russell Whitehouse via OrientalReview.org,

In this election year, it’s clear that a seismic political shift is rumbling through America. Widespread discontent for the status quo is surfacing from both the left and right. A year ago, it would have been impossible to envision a card-carrying socialist and a pre-WWII style populist mounting legitimate presidential campaigns (much less without Super PACs). Now, far-left and far-right sentiments are emerging from the underground as perfectly palatable options to Middle America. Establishment darlings like Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush & Marco Rubio have faced extreme pressure from the New Normal in their respective political tents.

It has become clear that the traditional 2-party system in America is starting to erode. Sanders’ supporters view Clinton as too untrustworthy & beholden to Big Business. Meanwhile Trump’s blue-collar base has rejected rank-and-file Republicans as being too unsympathetic to their economic concerns, while his surprising chunk of the evangelical contingent is refuting the Bush-flavored puritanism of Ted Cruz. Conversely, Clinton’s supporters reject Sander’s bold platform as delusional and Cruz’s base is increasingly being filled by #NeverTrump neocon purists and Romey-ite country club Republicans.

One can see political parallels across the pond, in the UK’s 2015 Parliamentary elections. The two main parties in Westminster Palace, Conservative and Labour (roughly equivalent to the GOP and Democrats), were shaken up by two popular insurgencies. UKIP, the UK Independence Party, rose up from the rising flames of the relatively conservative British heartland’s fears of free trade in the EU and immigration, winning an eighth of the popular vote in England. To the north, SNP, the Scottish National Party, won 95% of Scotland’s seats by inspiring among other things, record youth turnout and social media support (sound familiar?), with a message of social democracy and defiance against the British status quo.

Intra-party schisms are also forming in the two Anglophone democracies. The Tories are tearing themselves apart over the Brexit, austerity and jockeying to succeed Cameron as Party Leader, while the American neocons are assessing the fallout of Trump’s ascendance while in free fall. Labour officials are debating whether to follow their insurgent leader Jeremy Corbyn to the far Left after 20 years of Tony Blair’s New Labour movement, which moved the party to the center to win back the support of big business and blue-collar voters. The New Labour centrist putsch coincided with Bill Clinton (and later Obama’s) similar efforts as the face of the Democrats. Now, Democratic voters are beginning to second-guess this political realignment, spearheaded by the presumptive Democratic nominee’s husband. Her opponent Bernie Sanders is siphoning away the youth vote and blue-collar moderates from the Democratic establishment, two of the Party’s traditional constituencies, by railing against neoliberal policies like free trade and social welfare cuts.

Given the rise of social-democratic populism and nativist-protectionist populism to either flank of American politics, it would make sense to …read more

Source: The Slow, Inevitable Collapse Of The Two-Party System

    

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How to Destroy ISIS Propaganda and Wipe Out Its Ability to Recruit

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By George Washington

Terror Stat

The Little-Known Secret to Destroying ISIS Propaganda

I'm not opposed to killing every ISIS member and recruit. After all, they're trying to kill us.

But Russia and the U.S.-led coalition haven't been able to wipe out ISIS with bombs.

Why not?

Military history shows that you usually cannot defeat your enemy unless you understand him at least a little bit.

For example, the great Chinese military strategist Sun Tzu wrote in the Art of War:

It is said that if you know your enemies and know yourself, you will not be imperiled in a hundred battles; if you do not know your enemies but do know yourself, you will win one and lose one; if you do not know your enemies nor yourself, you will be imperiled in every single battle.

Part of why we haven't won the battle against ISIS is we don't understand why their recruitment has been so successful.

Specifically, ISIS pitches itself to ignorant, naive, unemployed, young Muslims as the group which will stop the Christian and Jewish “occupiers” from stealing their lands.

(That's obviously no excuse for joining a terrorist group.)

But if the actual truth – that ISIS kills far more Muslims than Christians or Jews – were publicized, ISIS' propaganda and recruiting success would collapse.

In other words, ISIS ability to recruit fighters and supporters would evaporate, and the group itself would quickly wither.

“Between 82 and 97% of Terrorism-Related Fatalities” Are MUSLIM

The U.S. National Counterterrorism Center – the United States government organization The State Department commented:

NCTC [i.e. the National Counterterrorism Center] maintains its statistical information on the U.S. government's authoritative and unclassified database on terrorist acts, the Worldwide Incidents Tracking System (WITS).

***

Muslims continued to bear the brunt of terrorism ….

  • In cases where the religious affiliation of terrorism casualties could be determined, Muslims suffered between 82 and 97 percent of terrorism-related fatalities over the past five years.
  • Muslim majority countries bore the greatest number of attacks involving 10 or more deaths ….

According to a 2009 report published by the Counter Terrorism Center at the United States Military Academy at West Point, Al-Qaeda kills over seven times more Muslims than non-Muslims.

The UN reported last year that Muslims are the largest victims of ISIS in Iraq.

In 2013, the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism's Global Terrorism Database – joint government-university program on terrorism, hosted at the University of Maryland noted that between 2004 and 2013, about half of all terrorist attacks, and 60% of fatalities due to terrorist attacks, took place in Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan – all of which have a mostly Muslim population:

The head of the Global Terrorism Database told BBC:

While she doubts that 95% of terrorism victims are Muslim, she thinks the truth might not be far off.

…read more

Source: How to Destroy ISIS Propaganda and Wipe Out Its Ability to Recruit

    

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