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By Tyler Durden

In addition to today’s opex witching, at the close of trading today the S&P will conduct its quarterly index rebalance changes. As Credit Suisse notes, there are no constituent changes during this review, only weight adjustments and according to the bank’s adjustments, indexers will need to trade approximately $14.5bn to move to new index weights, of which $13.3 billion will take place in the S&P, accounting for 0.7% of the total two-way turnover.

Broken down by sector, the EOD flows will be concentrated in the following sectors, with the biggest outflows in Industrials and inflows in Energy and Utilities.

Broken down by stock, the biggest winners appear 3 of the 4 FANGs, with some other prominent names found in the list of top 10 index buys. These will be offset by selling in such names as PG, PFE, AVGO and MSFT.

However, the one data set which may be most interesting to traders is the names which are the most illiquid and thus most likely to see material price movement as a result of today’s rebalance. According to CS, it will be the following ten names, 8 of which it calculates will see a net outflow.

…read more

Source: These Illiquid Companies Are Most At Risk During Today’s S&P Rebalance

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By Tyler Durden

Turkey and the EU came back to the negotiating table on Thursday and Friday in Brussels in the latest installment of a long-running attempt to hammer out a deal that will help stem the flow of refugees into Europe.

Germany, Sweden, Austria, and a number of other countries are quite literally breaking under the pressure and everyone involved fears things could get far worse as winter turns to spring and the Balkan route thaws.

While the ceasefire and the hope of a political settlement to Syria’s five-year-old conflict may help, there are still scores of jihadist elements operating in the country and those who are inclined to be realistic know there’s no hope of anyone wanting to come back to the country anytime soon.

Of course Turkey is the key corridor through which the asylum seekers pass on their way to Greece. Europe is keen on figuring out a way to work with Ankara to ameliorate the current situation in which scores of migrants have found themselves stuck in Idomeni as they desperately try to cross the Macedonian border and make their way north.

(migrants in Idomeni at the Greek border with Macedonia: NY Times)

The conditions Turkey requires for striking a deal have changed over time, but two things have been relatively constant: 1) money, 2) accelerated EU membership.

On Friday, EU leaders agreed upon a proposal to present to Turkish PM Ahmet Davutoglu. Generally speaking, it looks a lot like a proposal that took shape earlier this month. Here’s a summary from The New York Times:

• Sending Migrants Back to Turkey From Greece
  • All migrants who travel to Greece from Turkey using irregular means after an agreement is reached will be returned to Turkey, in what the agreement calls “a temporary and extraordinary measure, which is necessary to end the human suffering and restore public order.”
• A One-for-One Swap of Syrians
  • For each Syrian migrant returned to Turkey, the European Union will directly resettle another Syrian from Turkey, with priority given to Syrians who have not previously entered, or tried to enter, the European Union, up to a total of 72,000.
  • If that number is reached — as it almost certainly will be — a new round of negotiations will be held.
• Stricter Controls of Turkey’s Borders
  • Turkey will take “all necessary measures” to prevent migrants from opening new sea or land routes to the European Union from Turkey in a measure aimed at assuaging concerns in Bulgaria that migrants will stream into the country.
• Concessions for Turkey
  • The European Union will speed up the disbursement of the €3 billion it pledged in November, and provide another €3 billion by the end of 2018, once Turkey meets its commitments.
  • The European Union will waive most visa requirements for Turkish citizens by the end of June, provided that Turkey meets certain requirements.

According …read more

Source: EU, Turkey Strike Migrant Deal; Erdogan Gets €6 Billion

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Louisiana students are afraid they could lose a scholarship next year that covers a big part of their college costs. A massive state budget shortfall puts the college TOPS scholarships in jeopardy.

…read more

Source: 50,000 college students could lose scholarships

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By Tyler Durden

The 2016 market can be described as a sequential bursting of pain trades: first it was the momentum trade; then it was the whipsawed action in Treasurys where record shorts were burned on the way up, and then longs screamed when central banks unleashed the latest coordinated attempt at reflation, then it was the FX whipsaws where central bank easing led to the opposite reaction in the underlying currencies (as noted earlier), then the sudden trapdoor under the USD which many had expected would continue rising, then it was the healthcare sector where hedge fund hotels got crushed in the latest Valeant fiasco, and so forth.

But while all those are known – especially to those who have been steamrolled by them – according to Bank of America’s Michael Hartnett, the biggest pain trade is the following:

The World’s Most Painful Chart...uncanny correlation between Chinese renminbi & Facebook/Petrobras pair-trade (Chart 1); few have been positioned for 2016’s biggest pain trade…appreciation of the renminbi; CNH (China renminbi), CL1 (oil), H0A0 (high yield) = lead indicators of risk rally, drivers of performance pain.

And with surprising headlines such as this one hitting on a daily basis:

• KEN GRIFFIN’S MAIN CITADEL FUNDS DROP 8% IN 2016 MARKET SWINGS

we expect many more pain trades to materialize in the coming weeks as the central banks once again do everything they can to steamroll the market in unleashing another burst of inflation, even as the end demand is simply not there.

…read more

Source: Hartnett: "This Is The World’s Most Painful Chart"

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By Tyler Durden

WTI crude extends it exuberant ramp to a 3rd day – heading for its 5th weekly gain – the longest since May, climbing above $42, reaching its highest in 3 months amid dollar weakness, falling output, and continued hope of a production freeze (at record levels with a record glut and weakening demand).

Brent is moving in parallel with WTI, testing key resistance level, according to Bloomberg technical strategist.

“The dollar has weakened quite significantly over the last few days and that has had some affect,” says ABN Amro energy economist Hans van Cleef.

“There is positive momentum at the moment — the floor in oil price is being set higher and higher and that is boosting momentum upward… The positive sentiment is driven by April production freeze talks,” says van Cleef, noting this added to slowing U.S. production, falling rig count.

What is most worrying, however, is this means Dennis Gartman has just a $2 window until “the end of his lifetime” at the dreaded $44.

…read more

Source: Gartman Has Less Than $2 To Live As Oil Rises Above $42

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By Tyler Durden

WTI crude extends it exuberant ramp to a 3rd day – heading for its 5th weekly gain – the longest since May, climbing above $42, reaching its highest in 3 months amid dollar weakness, falling output, and continued hope of a production freeze (at record levels with a record glut and weakening demand).

Brent is moving in parallel with WTI, testing key resistance level, according to Bloomberg technical strategist.

“The dollar has weakened quite significantly over the last few days and that has had some affect,” says ABN Amro energy economist Hans van Cleef.

“There is positive momentum at the moment — the floor in oil price is being set higher and higher and that is boosting momentum upward… The positive sentiment is driven by April production freeze talks,” says van Cleef, noting this added to slowing U.S. production, falling rig count.

What is most worrying, however, is this means Dennis Gartman has just a $2 window until “the end of his lifetime” at the dreaded $44.

…read more

Source: Gartman Has Less Than $2 To Live As Oil Rises Above $42

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By Tyler Durden

• Dow’s Freakish Bounce Makes Investors Whole, Can’t Erase Doubts (BBG)
• R.I.P. Dollar Rally as Dovish Fed Spurs Worst Slump Since 2011 (BBG)
• Global Currencies Soar, Defying Central Bankers (WSJ)
• Oil hits 2016 high above $42 on production and demand outlook (Reuters)
• The U.S. Is Exporting Its Oil Everywhere (BBG)
• Hillary Clinton’s Allies Launch Plan to Undercut Donald Trump Now (WSJ)
• Sanders calls notion he should quit Democratic race ‘absurd’ (Reuters)
• Turns Out a ‘Lie’ Lurked Beneath the Bookends of the BRICS (BBG)
• Valeant Jitters Infect Specialty Drug Sector (WSJ)
• Subprime auto loans come under scrutiny (FT)
• ECB Urges Italy Banks Planning M&A to Target Strong Capital (BBG)
• Senators say they might confirm Obama’s high court pick after election (Reuters)
• Aubrey McClendon Left His Biggest Backer With Billions to Lose (BBG)
• BlueCrest Money Manager John McNiff Said to Leave Hedge Fund (BBG)
• Toshiba says it may write down nuclear business, U.S. units probed (Reuters)
• Defiant North Korea fires ballistic missile into sea (Reuters)
• Ex-Porsche Executives Acquitted of Market Manipulation in Volkswagen Bid (WSJ)
• U.S. sees new Chinese activity around South China Sea shoal (Reuters)

Overnight Media Digest

WSJ

– Efforts by many of the world’s central banks to weaken their currencies are failing, raising concerns about whether policy makers are losing the ability to wield control over financial markets. This was the case again in Japan on Thursday, when the dollar fell 1.1 percent against yen. (http://on.wsj.com/1Ua8DpS)

– TransCanada Corp, the company behind the controversial Keystone XL oil pipeline project, agreed to buy Columbia Pipeline Group Inc for $10.2 billion. (http://on.wsj.com/1Ua8Idi)

– Lear Corp, one of the world’s biggest auto suppliers is pressing the United Auto Workers to agree to lower wages in exchange for relocating jobs from Mexico back to Detroit. (http://on.wsj.com/1Ua8K4W)

– WiseTech Global Ltd, a software company launched out of a Sydney basement in the 1990s, said it had lodged a prospectus with the Australia’s securities regulator for an initial public offering that could see it list with a market value of more than 1 billion Australian dollars ($765.50 million) after raising A$100 million-A$220 million. (http://on.wsj.com/1Ua8NNW)

– JPMorgan Chase & Co said its board authorized the repurchase of an additional $1.88 billion of the New York bank’s stock through the end of the second quarter. (http://on.wsj.com/1UaaJWR)

– Since announcing plans to sell a minority stake in its Paramount Pictures studio three weeks ago, Viacom Inc said it has received interest from three dozen companies, even as Paramount is experiencing a particularly weak quarter at the box office. (http://on.wsj.com/1UaaMC5)

FT

* SNP will not match Osborne’s tax cut for higher earners. (http://bit.ly/1RpGOmz)

* Disgraced former FIFA president Blatter paid $3.7 mln salary. (http://bit.ly/1RpGR1E)

* Google to sell robot maker Boston Dynamics. (http://bit.ly/1RpHict)

Overview

* Scottish National Party …read more

Source: Frontrunning: March 18

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By Sprott Money

Hold your real assets outside of the banking system in one of many private international facilities –>

“Statistics can be used to say anything.”

Many readers are familiar with this cliché, but few understand its real significance . Numbers don’t lie, meaning the raw data which we collect on a nearly infinite number of subjects. Statistics, on the other hand, are rarely just raw data. Instead, they are numbers that have been massaged (i.e. manipulated) with various adjustments.

Deception and deceit enters into the picture when our governments (and charlatan economists ) create their statistics, and do so by making adjustments which are completely indefensible from an analytical standpoint. These adjustments don’t improve upon the raw data in terms of adding clarity, but rather they pervert the data into numbers which cease to have any resemblance to the real world.

Thus, with their adjusted statistics, these frauds-with-numbers can make the U.S. Great Depression look like a recovery. An even more obvious example is found in all the imaginary “jobs” the U.S. government claims to have created during its imagined recovery .

Fewer and fewer people are working in the U.S. every year, and virtually every month. Since the start of the “recovery,” the U.S. economy has lost an additional 3+ million jobs. The “11 million new jobs” boasted of by the political puppets, and manufactured by charlatan economists, never existed. They were completely created with mammoth – and bogus – adjustments.

“Numbers don’t lie – people do.”

This brings us to the silver market, and some numbers that illustrate some unequivocal truths. There are few better sources for numbers on silver than precious metals icon, Eric Sprott. In a recent interview withThe Daily Coin , Sprott provided a few interesting numbers.

Silver is mined at an 11:1 ratio to gold. This is raw data. This becomes significant when we look more raw data numbers: the natural occurrence of these two metals in the Earth’s crust. Silver is approximately 17 times as plentiful as gold. Therefore, all things being equal, we should expect silver to be mined at a near-identical ratio of 17:1.

Instead, silver is under-produced by roughly 50%. How? Why?

We know it could not possibly be due to lack of interest or demand. Historically, over a span of thousands of years, the price ratio between silver and gold was a very steady 15:1. This means that (over thousands of years) humanity has exhibited a slight price preference for silver. It occurs at a 17:1 ratio, but people have been willing to pay for it at a slightly higher 15:1 ratio.

In more modern times, we have proof that humanity’s desire for silver hasn’t waned at all. As was explained in a previous commentary , the silver market has been in a state of supply deficit …read more

Source: Silver Fundamentals: The Numbers Don’t Lie

    

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