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By Tyler Durden

Last September, in the aftermath of Sweden going full NIRP, we warned that

Today, six months after our most recent observations on the state of the Swedish housing bubble, Moody’s chimes in and warns that as a result of NIRP, the country is most at risk of an “ultimately unsustainable asset bubble”:

… the unintended consequences of the ultra-loose monetary policy are becoming increasingly apparent — in the form of rapidly rising house prices and persistently strong growth in mortgage credit”, adds Ms Muehlbronner. In Moody’s view, these trends will likely continue as interest rates will remain low, raising the risk of a house price bubble, with potentially adverse effects on financial stability as and when house prices reverse trends. In all three countries, households are highly leveraged, and while they also have high levels of financial assets, returns on these assets will be under increasing pressure if the negative interest and yield environment persists.

And adds:

Moody’s believes that the Riksbank will find it difficult to achieve its objective of significantly pushing up consumer price inflation in a deflationary global environment, while the sustained and strong growth in mortgage lending and house prices risks leading to an (ultimately unsustainable) asset bubble.

We expect this latest warning to be soundly ignored because after all, what else can the central banks do in this global coordinated effort to stimulate economies with ever more debt, which by definition can only work if rates are not only at zero, but increasingly more negative.

* * *

Here is Moody’s with “Negative interest rates in Switzerland, Denmark, Sweden are having unintended consequences, with Sweden most at risk of asset bubble“

The central banks of Switzerland, Denmark and Sweden (all rated Aaa stable) have been among the first to push policy rates into negative territory. A year into this novel experience, Moody’s Investors Service concludes that, from among the three countries, Sweden is most at risk of an — ultimately unsustainable — asset bubble.

Moody’s report, entitled “Governments of Switzerland, Denmark & Sweden: Negative interest rates have unintended consequences, with Sweden most at risk of asset bubble,” is available on www.moodys.com. Moody’s subscribers can access this report via the link provided at the end of this press release. The rating agency’s report is an update to the markets and does not constitute a rating action.

The three countries’ central banks have lowered their key policy interest rates to the current -0.75% in Switzerland, -0.65% in Denmark and -0.5% in Sweden, albeit for different reasons. The Swiss and Danish central banks were aiming to reverse the intense appreciation pressure on their currencies as a result of the ECB’s introduction of its quantitative easing program. In Sweden, the central bank is focused on lifting persistently low inflation, in the context of the ongoing strong economic expansion.

“In Moody’s view, the Danish and Swiss central banks …read more

Source: "Sweden Most At Risk Of Asset Bubble" Moody’s Warns, After Taking A Look At Swedish House Prices

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By Tyler Durden

One would think that as we approach the most important event of the week, and perhaps the month, namely the latest FOMC announcement due in just over three hours and one which is expected to confirm that rate hikes are back on the table, something which a few months ago unleashed another round of teeth crushing volatility, that the VIX would be higher.

Not only is it not higher, but instead as the chart below shows, the VIX has just tumbled by 6%, to fresh 2016 low, and a level not seen since mid-December.

We were looking for a catalyst… and then we stumbled on Gartman’s latest letter, released overnight, in which we read the following…

Concerning position taking, we have been equivocal this past week about share prices, but our equivocation is now shifting bearishly. We continue to find the fact that the rally of the past month and one half has been on decidedly lesser volume than was the volume on the downside. Note then the chart this page with the rising and falling mini-trends of volume in the S&P futures highlighted, noting that volume reaches its nadirs at market peaks, and reaches its peaks at interim market bottoms.

Volume should follow the trend and if that is the case then the market is exhibiting manifestly bearish tendencies and it is time to act upon those tendencies. Given the low level to which the VIX has fallen, we are buyers of the VIX this morning upon receipt of this commentary.

…

NEW RECOMMENDATION: As noted above, we are taking a “punt” on the short side of the equity market, but this time we shall do so by buying volatility; that is, we shall buy the VXX volatility index ETF listed on the NYSE and we shall do so upon receipt of this commentary and the market’s opening. We’ll have a stop in tomorrow’s TGL, but for now we do not wish to risk more than 5% on this trade… a rather large stop to be certain for our purposes in the past but we’ll tighten that up measurably over the course of the next day or two.

This is unusual action on our part ahead of an FOMC meeting given the historical tendency of equities to rise after these meetings; but call it trader’s intuition or call it what you will we think a “one unit” punt is warranted and reasonable.

We must admit that we pray that for once Gartman’s “trader intuition” is correct because we tend to agree: we have gotten to a point where complacency is fully back courtesy of the central bankers, where the market is substantially overvalued as even Goldman admits, where the earnings picture continues to deteriorate (Q1 EPS is expected to plunge by over 8%) and where none of the world’s problems have been “fixed” in the past …read more

Source: VIX Plunges To 2016 Lows After Gartman Says "We Are Buyers Of The VIX"

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The Federal Reserve’s committee could change its plans for interest rate increases in 2016 at its meeting Wednesday. That could move markets.

…read more

Source: 5 takeaways on Fed’s big day

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By Tyler Durden

Coming at the same time as an inflationary report which showed Core CPI rising at 2.30%, or the highest rate since October 2008, and one which will put further pressure on the Fed to hike rates as shelter inflation is now simply too big to sweep under the rug, we also got February’s housing starts and permits, which while painting a mixed picture of the US housing market suggested further strength in the US housing sector in the past month.

Housing starts rose from last month’s disappointing an upward revised 1,099K (now 1,120K), to 1,178K, beating expectations of a 1,150K print, driven by a jump in single-family housing which rose from 767K to 822K, the highest print since the recession, on the back of a rebound in West (24.8%) and Midwest (18.6%) single-family housing, while multi-family or “rental” units were almost unchanged, rising from 333K to 341K.

Permits, on the other hand, disappointed, sliding from an upward revised 1,204K to 1,167K, below the 1,200K consesus expectations, where single-family rose fractionally from 728K to 731K, even as multi-family permits declined by 9.1% from 441K to 401K, the lowest print since September 2015, and perhaps suggesting that home builders are refocusing their attention away from rental units and back to single-family housing.

However, with most American households unable or unwilling to splurge for the privilege of owning a home, this slowdown in the rental pipeline will likely mean less rental supply in the coming months, putting further pressure on already record rents, and leading to even core inflation in the coming months, forcing the Fed to act with even more resolve when it comes to tightening financial conditions and popping the rental bubble before it gets too far out of hand.

…read more

Source: Housing Starts Beat Expectations, As Slowdown In Rental Permits Suggest Further Rent Increases In Coming Months

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By Tyler Durden

One of the more impressive short squeezes in recent history took place in the first two weeks of March, when the stock of distressed Peabody Energy, the largest U.S. coal producer which employs 8,300 workers, exploded higher from just $2.50 per share at the start of the month to a whopping $6.50 just last week.

Many scratched their heads at this move as nothing fundamental had changed in the company’s deteriorating operations, and its bonds are among the most distressed issues trading currently (with upcoming interest payments as we profiled last night).

Alas Peabody missed its narrow window to sell stock, and things were promptly normalized this morning, when the stock crashed back to earth plunging by 30% to $2.80 in the pre-market, and wiping out virtually all recent gains, after Peabody announced in its just filed 10-K, reported that it may have to join its peers Arch Coal and Alpha Natural in 11 bankruptcy protection, after it delayed $71 million in interest payment due on March 15.

As caught first by Bloomberg, Peabody’s auditor said there’s uncertainty about the company’s ability to keep running as a “going concern,” a 10-K filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission shows. More importantly, the company reported it will exercise the 30-day grace period on a $21.1 million semi-annual interest payment due March 15 for 6.5 percent senior notes maturing September 2020, and a $50 million payment for the same date on 10 percent notes due March 2022.

Here is the relevant section:

As a result of operating losses and negative cash flows from operations and our election to exercise a 30-day grace period with respect to certain interest payments, together with other factors, including the possibility that a covenant default or other event of default could cause certain of our indebtedness to become immediately due and payable (after the expiration of any applicable grace period), we may not have sufficient liquidity to sustain operations and to continue as a going concern.

We incurred a substantial loss from operations and had negative cash flows from operating activities for the year ended December 31, 2015. Our current operating plan indicates that we will continue to incur losses from operations and generate negative cash flows from operating activities. These projections and certain liquidity risks raise substantial doubt about whether we will meet our obligations as they become due within one year after the date of issuance of this report. We have also elected to exercise the 30-day grace period with respect to a $21.1 million semi-annual interest payment due March 15, 2016 on the 6.50% Senior Notes due September 2020 and a $50.0 million semi-annual interest payment due March 15, 2016 on the 10.00% Senior Secured Second Lien Notes due March 2022, as provided for in the indentures governing these notes. Failure to pay these interest amounts on March 15, 2016 is not immediately an event …read more

Source: Largest U.S. Coal Producer Skips Interest Payment, Warns Of Bankruptcy: Stock Plunges 30%

    

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By Tyler Durden

One of the most farcical instances of report-it-then-promptly-deny-it headline hockey since last summer’s Greek bailout drama has been the incessant barrage of “news” surrounding the oft-celebrated oil output freeze deal struck last month by the Saudis, Qatar, Venezuela, and Russia.

At the time, the market was hoping against hope for an agreement to cut production. After all, Russia and Saudi Arabia are pumping at record levels. As we put it at the time, “it was not exactly clear how ‘freezing’ output at a record level will ‘stabilize and improve’ the market.” Still, this market will take what it can get at this point and since the “agreement” on February 16, prices have indeed risen and some of the gains have – rightly or wrongly – been attributed to the “freeze.”

Casting a pall over the entire thing is Iran who, having just begun to ramp up production after the lifting of international sanctions, isn’t particularly excited about the prospect of taking its foot off the pedal. Asked about participating in the freeze, Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh said last week that Tehran should “just be left alone,” until production reaches 4 million b/d. At that point, Zanganeh says, “we will join them.”

Of course that’s a non-starter for the likes of Kuwait, whose own oil minister Anas al-Saleh recently warned that his country will “go full power” if everyone (and “everyone” includes the Iranians) isn’t on board with the deal.

On Monday, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak spoke with Zanganeh on the phone and once the call was over, indicated that Moscow “understood” its ally in Tehran’s position. “Since Iran’s production decreased under sanctions, we totally understand Iran’s position to increase production and revive its share in the global markets,” Novak said, adding that “within the framework of major oil producers (OPEC and non- OPEC), Iran is liable to have an exclusive way for increasing its oil production.”

And increase production Iran will – by another 1 million b/d by 2017. “The positions of Russia about Iran’s return as well as resumption of stability to the oil market were encouraging and very positive,” Zanganeh said of Novak’s comments.

It’s thus clear that Iran will not be participating in any freeze and so, OPEC and non-OPEC producers are left to decide whether to move ahead with the deal or not.

On Wednesday, we get the latest possibly bogus news in the never-ending output freeze saga as Reuters reported that producers will meet in Doha on April 17 to discuss the deal. That report was “confirmed” around an hour later by Qatari Oil Minister Mohammed Al-Sada. Here are the key points from Qatar:

• QATARI OIL MINISTER SAYS OIL PRODUCERS TO MEET IN DOHA APRIL 17
• QATAR MEETING IS FOLLOW-UP AFTER SAUDI, RUSSIA MEETING IN FEB.
• QATAR: ABOUT 15 PRODUCERS SUPPORT MEETING ON OIL OUTPUT FREEZE
• QATAR: PRODUCERS CONVINCED CURRENT OIL PRICES NOT SUSTAINABLE
• QATAR: DRASTIC DROP IN INVESTMENT AFFECTING GLOBAL OIL …read more

  Source: Oil Jumps After Latest Output Freeze Meeting "News"

      

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Roughly 80 motorcycles participating in new programs from Uber and homegrown rival Ola have been impounded by transportation authorities in Bangalore.

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Source: Wheels come off Uber’s motorcycle experiment

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Europe’s two premier financial centers — London and Frankfurt — could be bound together by a merger of their leading exchange groups.

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Source: Europe is getting a new stock exchange giant

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A meeting between members of OPEC and other major oil producers will take place on April 17 in Doha, a Gulf source told CNNMoney on Wednesday.

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Source: OPEC sets April date for oil supply meeting

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Instagram has become the latest social media platform to cede control of user feeds to the robots.

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Source: Instagram is turning your feed over to the robots

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