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Global Oil Equation (Video)

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By EconMatters

By

Costs for servicing oil projects have pulled back considerably after a nice decade of price spikes, but oil servicing costs are going to rise again, necessitating higher oil prices to justify capital allocation behavior. There is no cure for low prices like low prices when the globe utilizes around 95 million barrels of oil per day. Remember when oil spiked to $147 a barrel, well we were at 89 million barrels per day in global consumption. Global oil consumption is going to outpace the growth of global oil production over the next decade which is going to lead to a really tight oil market in the future.

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Source: Global Oil Equation (Video)

    

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Trump campaign blocks Politico reporter

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Donald Trump’s campaign blocked a Politico reporter from attending the candidate’s victory rally on Tuesday night, continuing a troubling trend of denying access to reporters who write critically about Trump and his campaign.

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Source: Trump campaign blocks Politico reporter

    

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US Government Blames 9/11 On Iran, Fines Iran $10.5 Billion; Iran Refuses To Pay

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By Tyler Durden

Authored by Eric Zuesse,

On March 14th, Iran announced that it will never pay the $10.5B that a U.S. court demanded it pay for the 9/11 attacks.

The same Bill-Clinton-appointed judge who had ruled, on 29 September 2015, that Saudi Arabia has sovereign immunity for 9/11 and so can’t be sued for it, ruled recently, on March 9th that Iran doesn’t have sovereign immunity and fined Iran $10.5 billion to be paid to 9/11 victims and insurers; but, on March 14, Iran’s Foreign Ministry said Iran won’t pay, because, as the Ministry’s spokesman Hossein Jaberi Ansari put it, “The ruling is ludicrous and absurd to the point that it makes a mockery of the principle of justice while [it] further tarnishes the US judiciary’s reputation.”

The United States is allied with Iran’s enemy Saudi Arabia, the largest purchaser of U.S.-made weapons, and also the top influence in the Gulf Cooperation Council of Arabic oil royal families regarding where they buy their weapons. Those purchases, which are crucial to the stockholders in Lockheed Martin and other U.S. weapons-makers, are determined basically by the Saud family, the owners of Saudi Arabia.

The Sauds, as the owners of the leading fundamentalist-Sunni country, including sole ownership of the world’s largest oil company Aramco, also own Islam’s two holiest sites, Mecca and Medina, and are therefore the leaders of Islam worldwide, because all Muslims (not only fundamentalist Sunnis) are required to bow down in prayer five times every day facing Mecca — facing the Saud family and the clergy that authorize continued ownership of Saudi Arabia by the Saud family: the Wahhabist clergy. Back in 1744, the founder of Wahhabism, Muhammad Ibn Wahhab, and the founder of Saudi Arabia, Muhammad Ibn Saud, jointly swore an eternal oath that Saud’s descendants would own the country, and that Wahhab’s clergymen would grant them God’s approval of their ownership and of their right to conquer other lands to expand the faith. (Religions throughout history have mainly been spread by conquest.)

Part of that oath was also that the Sauds would exterminate Shia Muslims, so as to unify Islam worldwide as fundamentalist Sunnis, in order to enable a unified (100% Sunni) faith to take over the entire world. Iran is the center of Shia Islam, and so is especially the target of the Sauds to conquer and ‘convert’ the world to Wahhabism — which is called “Salafism” outside Saudi Arabia, and which is known outside Islam as simply fundamentalist Sunni Islam. Al Qaeda, ISIS, and other global-jihadist groups, all are Salafists; they’re all Sunni fundamentalists. Shia Islam has no real equivalent to this “global Caliphate” idea, the goal of conquering the world to ‘convert’ all lands someday to Islam. Jihadism, in that sense, doesn’t exist, except in the Sunni variant of Islam. Perhaps this is what Mr. Ansari meant by calling that judge’s verdict “ludicrous and absurd.” (However, Shia Islam tends to be more anti-Israeli …read more

Source: US Government Blames 9/11 On Iran, Fines Iran $10.5 Billion; Iran Refuses To Pay

    

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Hungary’s Orban "Rings Alarm Bells" On Brussels Plot To Create "United States Of Europe"

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By Tyler Durden

If there’s one person who exemplifies anti-refugee sentiment in Europe more than anyone else, it’s not Frauke Petry, it’s not Geert Wilders, and it’s not Lutz Bachmann. It’s Viktor Orban.

Orban raised eyebrows in September of last year, when the Hungarian PM built a 110-mile, razor wire migrant-be-gone fence along his country’s border with Serbia.

But the fireworks began in earnest when dozens of refugees decided to try and break through the barrier. When the asylum seekers tested Orban’s resolve, riot police responded with water cannons and tear gas and that, as they say, was that when it came to traversing Hungary along the Balkan route to Germany.

From that point forward, migrants were diverted through Croatia and Slovenia on the way to Austria and Germany. Some applauded Orban’s efforts to protect the integrity of Hungary’s borders, but many decried what they viewed as an inhumane and xenophobic response to a pressing humanitarian crisis.

To put it lightly, Orban didn’t care about his critics.

In fact, he doubled down on the rhetoric, insisting that his approach was necessary to “preserve Western Europe’s Christian heritage.”

In his most recent slap in the face to Angela Merkel and anyone else in the bloc who supports her open-door policy, Orban called for a referendum on Europe’s quota system.

“Nobody has asked the European people so far whether they support, accept, or reject the mandatory migrant quotas,” Orban proclaimed, at a press conference late last month. “The government is responding to public sentiment now: we Hungarians think introducing resettlement quotas for migrants without the backing of the people equals an abuse of power.”

“This is a fundamental, unavoidable, essential question of Hungarian politics: can anyone else decide for Hungarians who we Hungarians should or should not live with?,” he asked.

Not one to let sleeping dogs lie, Orban is back at it, this time positing a Brussels conspiracy to turn the bloc into the “United States of Europe.”

Speaking at an event to celebrate Hungary’s 1848 revolution against the Habsburgs, Orban proclaimed that “the time has come to ring the alarm bells and gather allies” in an effort to thwart Brussels’ scheme. “If we want to stop the mass migration, first we must put the brakes on Brussels,” he said.

As AP notes, “Hungary granted some sort of international protection to just 508 people last year.” Those who received protection were “real refugees,” the country says, drawing a distinction between those asylum seekers and the river of migrants that’s now cut off from the country via Orban’s fences on the Serbian and Croatian borders. Here are more excerpts from today’s speech at the National Museum:

“The truth is not allowed to be said.”

It is forbidden to say that immigration brings crime and terror to our countries. It is forbidden to say that the …read more

Source: Hungary’s Orban "Rings Alarm Bells" On Brussels Plot To Create "United States Of Europe"

    

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These Are The Energy Bonds Most Likely To Default In The Next Six Months

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By Tyler Durden

Over the past several weeks, courtesy of the jump in oil prices from 13 years lows, the narrowly reopened window granting some companies the chance to sell equity and in some cases debt (and promptly use the proceeds to repay their secured lenders), and the various last-ditch extensions afforded to near-default oil and gas companies, the dire reality of the default wave about to be unleashed in the shale patch has been swept under the rug, if only briefly.

That is about to change.

In a recent interview with Bloomberg, Fitch’s Eric Rosenthal paints a very disturbing picture: the rating agency senior director predicts that about $40 billion worth of energy debt will likely default in 2016.

Here are some of the highlights behind his forecast of a 6% default rate, the highest non-recessionary rate since 2000.

The increase in the overall default rate to 6 percent from 4.5 percent relates purely to the challenges of low commodity prices in the energy and metals/mining sectors. A false dawn in prices last spring allowed many energy companies to access the capital markets. As a result, the sector accounts for more outstanding debt in the high yield bond universe than any other — 19 percent. When combined with metals/mining, the two most distressed sectors account for 25 percent of the high-yield bond universe. Energy, rightfully, received much attention last year. With $13 billion of defaults already tallied this year, compared to $17.5 billion for all of 2015, it shows no signs of slowing down. E&P and coal companies are the most prone to default this year, with expected default rates of 30 percent to 35 percent and 60 percent, respectively. As these companies work through their last lifelines, like distressed debt exchanges, there is an expectation that we will see more filings.

On the ongoing liquidity concerns resulting from what remains mostly a shut high yield issuance window:

Currently, $63 billion of energy and metals/mining bond issues are bid below 40 cents. While there is definitely noise around names that are bid in the 60-to-80-cents region, the majority of issues trading at deep discounts are near-term default candidates. The high-yield market has bounced back nicely over the past few weeks, highlighted by a record $5 billion in mutual fund inflows, but the energy troubles aren’t getting resolved with crude oil prices still under $40. Liquidity is definitely a concern.

Is the recent bounce in oil prices enough to delay the day of reckoning?

While crude oil prices have gained more than $11 from a Feb. 11 low, the levels are still well below what is required to break even. Most energy companies need the WTI to be north of $50 and quickly. If this happens, the capital markets could thaw a bit and asset sales might get done, enabling these companies to keep going. However, several of these companies …read more

Source: These Are The Energy Bonds Most Likely To Default In The Next Six Months

    

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Clinton, Trump win Florida

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Source: Clinton, Trump win Florida

    

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Apple: The government just doesn’t get it

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Apple and lawyers for the government are still talking past one another as Apple files the final court brief before a hearing on March 22.

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Source: Apple: The government just doesn’t get it

    

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Soros Floods Democrats With Millions, Warns Trump Of "Consequences"

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By Tyler Durden

Following MoveOn.org's “success” last Friday, George Soros is back on the lips of an increasing number of Americans

Having already already donated more than his total disclosed spending in the last two presidential elections combined, Bloomberg reports,

Soros has expressed alarm over the past few months at the candidacies of Republicans Donald Trump and Ted Cruz. In a statement last week about a new group he's funding to increase voting by Latinos and immigrants in the election, he again mentioned the two candidates by name.

“The intense anti-immigrant and anti-Muslim rhetoric that has been fueled by the Republican primary is deeply offensive,” Soros said in the statement. “There should be consequences for the outrageous statements and proposals that we've regularly heard from candidates Trump and Cruz.”

Michael Vachon, a spokesman and political adviser to Soros, said there was no single cause for the increase in spending. “His support of Clinton is one reason. The tone of the other candidates is the other,” Vachon said. The Clinton, Cruz and Trump campaigns, which face crucial primary contests in Ohio and Florida today, didn't respond to requests for comment.

Soros's importance to Clinton goes beyond the checks he writes, since other major Democratic donors sometimes follow his lead.

At the same time, it's likely that in a general election, Trump would pillory Clinton for her reliance on Soros and other wealthy hedge-fund managers. The billionaire real-estate developer has spent months portraying his Republican rivals as the tools of their donors.

Soros's personal fortune stands at about $24 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.

Soros spent an unprecedented $27 million trying to defeat Bush's re-election in 2004, much of it through independent groups known as 527s that could accept donations of unlimited size. While the groups Soros funded knocked on doors and tried to boost voter turnout, a conservative 527 group aired a powerful series of ads questioning Democrat John Kerry's war record, helping Bush win a second term. “They were in-your-face distortions of the truth,” a frustrated Soros told the New York Times Magazine in 2006. “People don't care about the truth.”

Soros signed on as an early backer of Obama during the 2008 campaign, but spent only about $5 million on political causes that cycle, according to a tally by Bloomberg that doesn't include undisclosed donations to political nonprofits. He spent even less in 2012, even though the Supreme Court's Citizens United ruling prompted a flood of new seven-figure contributions that year.

A few months later, Soros told a Clinton confidant that he wished he hadn't backed Obama in the primary four years earlier.

“He said he's been impressed that he can always call/meet with you on an issue of policy and he hasn't met with the president ever,” Neera Tanden said in a 2012 e-mail to Clinton, who was then serving as Obama's Secretary of State. “He regretted his decision in the primary — he likes to admit …read more

Source: Soros Floods Democrats With Millions, Warns Trump Of "Consequences"

    

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Stop-Trump groups spend millions on ads

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On the day before Super Tuesday, more than half of all the GOP-related campaign ads on local TV were anti-Donald Trump ads. But did it come too late?

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Source: Stop-Trump groups spend millions on ads

    

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We Are Being Killed On Trade – Rapidly Declining Exports Signal A Death Blow For The U.S. Economy

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By Michael Snyder

Abandoned Packard Automobile Factory - Photo by Albert Duce

Exports fell precipitously during the last two recessions, and now it is happening again.  So how in the world can anyone make the claim that the U.S. economy is in good shape?  On my website I have been repeatedly pointing out the parallels between the last two major economic downturns and the current crisis, and I am going to discuss another one today.  Since peaking in late 2014, U.S. exports have been steadily declining, and this is something that we never see outside of a major recession.  On the chart that I have shared below, the shaded gray bars represent the last two recessions, and you can see that exports of goods and services plunged dramatically in both instances…

And this chart does not even show the latest numbers that we have.  During the month of January, U.S. exports fell to a five and a half year low

The U.S. trade deficit widened more than expected in January as a strong dollar and weak global demand helped to push exports to a more than 5-1/2-year low, suggesting trade will continue to weigh on economic growth in the first quarter.

The Commerce Department said on Friday the trade gap increased 2.2 percent to $45.7 billion. December’s trade deficit was revised up to $44.7 billion from the previously reported $43.4 billion. Exports have declined for four straight months.

Because our exports are falling faster than our imports, our trade deficit is blowing out once again.  Every year we buy hundreds of billions of dollars more from the rest of the world than they buy from us, and this is systematically wrecking our economy.  Over the past several decades, we have lost tens of thousands of manufacturing facilities, millions of good paying manufacturing jobs, and major exporting nations such as China have become exceedingly wealthy at our expense.

We are being absolutely killed on trade, and yet very few of our politicians ever want to talk about this.

A brand new study that was recently discussed in the New York Times is bringing some renewed attention to these problems.  It turns out that the promised “benefits” of merging the U.S. economy into the global economic system simply have not materialized…

In a recent study, three economists — David Autor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, David Dorn at the University of Zurich and Gordon Hanson at the University of California, San Diego — raised a profound challenge to all of us brought up to believe that economies quickly recover from trade shocks. In theory, a developed industrial country like the United States adjusts to import competition by moving workers into more advanced industries that can successfully compete in global markets.

They examined the experience of American workers after China erupted onto world markets some two decades ago. The presumed adjustment, they concluded, never happened. Or at least hasn’t happened yet. Wages remain low and unemployment high in the most affected local job markets. Nationally, there is no …read more

Source: We Are Being Killed On Trade – Rapidly Declining Exports Signal A Death Blow For The U.S. Economy

    

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