FOMC Minutes Reveal Fed Wanted More Info Before Hiking
By Tyler Durden
Since June's FOMC statement, bonds and bullion have been well bid with stocks unchanged as rate-hike hopes collapsed. For those looking to glean insight from a confused Fed's minutes today, we wish them luck. As WSJ notes, the minutes can prove to be dated and that will be especially so given that Brexit occurred just days after, so the best we could hope for from today's minutes was “what-ifs.”
- *ALMOST ALL FED OFFICIALS SAW MAY PAYROLLS RAISING UNCERTAINTY
- *SOME OFFICIALS SAID LOWER PAYROLLS MAY SIGNAL BROADER SLOWDOWN
- *FOMC: PRUDENT TO WAIT FOR CONSEQUENCES OF U.K. VOTE
So nothing new whatsoever but definitely a Fed that is increasingly facing the realization that normalization is over as we draw readers' attention to the fact that the wordcount for 'uncertain' soared to 38.
Pre-Minutes: S&P Futs 2086, 10Y 1.385%, Gold $1367, BBDXY 1188.5
Further headlines:
- *MANY OFFICIALS SAID MAY PAYROLL REPORT UNDERSTATED JOB PACE
- *SOME FOMC MEMBERS ARGUED AGAINST DELAYING RATE HIKE TOO LONG
- *MOST OFFICIALS IN JUNE SAW HIKE WARRANTED IF GROWTH PICKED UP
- *FOMC: PRUDENT TO WAIT FOR CONSEQUENCES OF U.K. VOTE
Confirming what we had noted previously (via WSJ),
The minutes can prove to be dated, even though they are now released 3 weeks after the latest gatherings. That will be especially so given what happened a week after the June meeting: Brexit. While uncertainty about how that vote would pan out helped keep central bankers on the rate-hike sidelines (though the jobs report 2 weeks earlier did most of that work for them), don't expect much insight beyond what ifs. And with Fed-fund futures putting 2016 on ice regarding a rate hike, the minutes likely won't change minds on that.
Since June's FOMC Statement…
And extending the post-payrolls plunge and Brexit drop, rate-hike expectations are now negligible for the rest of the year…
As it seems traders are shifting their NIRP bets to 2017…
Full FOMC Minutes below…
Zero Hedge (zerohedge@gmail.com)
Source: FOMC Minutes Reveal Fed Wanted More Info Before Hiking
